Excess Deaths State-by-State
The CDC provides Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.
Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.
The CDC gives a range of 365,918 to 492,450.
According to Worldometers, the current death count is 423,016.
Covid-Related Deaths
The true Covid-related death count is closer to 500,000 especially given the time lag.
The excess death total captures under-diagnosis (someone died without ever having a positive test) and the indirect impacts on the healthcare system such as filled hospitals, ambulance delays, medical equipment shortages, and staff shortages.
Such counts are undoubtedly small in comparison to direct Covid deaths.
Mish
Mish, very interesting analysis. I’ve been confronted with these statistics up here in Canada. In fact, with the increase in population, we have not seen appreciation in the number of dead (so far) the real issue are those who have been prevented from seeking medical care.
The comment from Realist of “Cheers, Mate” suggests to me he is a pirate. Like to know if he has an eye patch and a peg leg. He may command the Nautilus. Nevertheless, I usually resonate with his comments, here in Nashville.
My immediate family member is on week 8 on a ventilator, and trying to wean him off. He was very healthy and manly before this. Has a trach tube and feeding tube, and shipped off to a rehab center to free up an ICU bed. Still does not understand why he is in the hospital, and anxiety is a common symptom in such patients. I expect long term cognitive, respiratory and other impairments with him from here on, along with other “recovered’” otherwise healthy people.
So sorry to hear.
Thank you, good friend Eddie. It’s painful to see “doubters” suffer such horrible circumstances, and the pain it brings to their families (some of whom they’ve infected). Laying face down, medically paralyzed and with a big tube shoved down your windpipe, with no way to communicate with anyone or doped up for so long that reality is hard to come back to, will evidently often create the PTSD we are seeing in many such patients. I think it is worth the inconvenience of wearing a little mask, and keeping myself at home reading, writing or doing other useful things, to give every effort reasonable to avoid such a fate, if possible. I just wish I could be immunized quicker, but if more people continue to reject it, I guess I’ll move up earlier in the line.
Die from Covid or with Covid. Hopefully the definitions have gotten better.
Mostly the “with Covid” discussion has gone away. It was just a meritless distraction, trying to pretend there weren’t excess deaths, and that people who were going to die anyway were being labelled as dying with Covid. Unfortunately, the excess deaths tell the real story, and the Covid turns out to be no different than any other disease: When you try to count deaths from a specific cause, you always miss quite a few, and end up with a count that is significantly lower than the real death toll.
Wrong on every count. But points for sticking to the narrative. You have been successfully indoctrinated.
K
9
Says our resident troll….
rofl
I love all this concern about debt. Where was this concern during the last 4 years. the tax cuts that were supposed to pay for themselves did not, rather the deficit grew in spite of the ‘amazing economy’. Where were the conservatives then?
second where is the proof of a stolen election – give me something.
Thank God tanman is gone. He literally had to do everything wrong in order to lose and thankfully did. It will take Biden a full year to course correct but signs of normalcy will be evident by late summer.
Commenters have noted the difference between politics and pandemic disease.
So, lets talk politics. 🙂
Prediction: This year, maybe by summer, maybe later, there will be a significant drop in “excess deaths” in the US and in other places. 2021 and 2022? Where are all the deaths?!? They just disappeared! Hallelujah! It’s a miracle!
I’ll predict the opposite. One of the characteristics of SARS one is that people who caught SARS, even if it was a mild case, had an elevated death rate even ten years after the infection. If Covid runs the same, worldwide deaths will be higher than normal for at least ten years. Given the frequency of “long covid”, and they number of people with lingering symptoms, I think that is almost certain to happen.
Covid is not as serious as SARS was, so hopefully the increase in death rate won’t be as high, but I do expect to see life expectancy trend down in years ahead.
Spot on. I think of covid as Guillain barre for the masses. Even younger people are going to get sicker as they get older and be more susceptible to early death.
Basically what I think is that Covid causes some damage in the body, and while the body, over time, may reverse some of it, some of the damage will be irreversible. Even people who had mild cases may turn out to have damage that that later manifests in reduced life expectancy or reduced quality of life. Only time, however, will tell. It is all speculation at this point.
Yep. A lot of people are going to die even after they get over covid and we will never know if it’s the aftereffects of covid that killed them or if they would have died anyway. The best path forward is a battery of vitamins that helped you improve immune response.
Researchers at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) have found elevated levels of a biomarker related to blood vessel damage in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, even if the children had minimal or no symptoms of COVID-19. They also found that a high proportion of children with SARS-CoV-2 infection met clinical and diagnostic criteria for thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA). TMA is a syndrome that involves clotting in the small blood vessels and has been identified as a potential cause for severe manifestations of COVID-19 in adults.
Let ‘s hope that C19 also causes a worldwide fertility ‘problem’ in humans ….a blessing for the planet that would be …
Its a hoax
Turn off the life support you are wasting valuable electricity.
“I Am Quite Apprehensive about What Might Otherwise Happen in Spring and Summer”
In an interview with Christian Drosten, the German virologist looks back on the mistakes he has made in the coronavirus pandemic – and ahead to the dangers that the pandemic still has in store for us.
The headline graphic presents “historic data” and “future projections” as if they were the same thing.
This practice is somewhere on the spectrum of obfuscation through to outright lie. It is commonly used by people who are trying to tell a story rather than trying to understand what is actually happening.
You’re better than this, Mish.
It’s all fake death. Get out the message.
It’s meaningless death. None of the people who died will be remembered next year when the Covid death counts are revised significantly downward.
Yeah….We’ll see.
The brown graph, as opposed to the blue graph?
The brown graph is unfortunate in that it mostly tells us the states’ populations. Whoever made it goofed or wanted to grind an axe. It needs to be converted to per-capita.
The blue one shows reported values. You can tell by the way the latest couple weeks have numbers that drop off. It takes time for the numbers to come in. Reporting quality varies state by state. And old-people death numbers seem to come in quicker than young, for instance.
I’ve seen similar graphs that intuit the most recent numbers by using historical records of how fast and hard numbers come in from each source.
Covid-19 is a huge problem that has affect all the world, almost eveybody have lost some in the last year but i dont have faith in the vaccine, i think they made to fast and will not work as they expect for my the best solution is stay at home thats the best way we have until now, i know is hard but we have to find the way to make it everything work from home… that why from my point of view cryptocurrencies are a good busness is this diffucult time https://www.mintme.com/news/cryptocurrencies-social-distance-best-friend for more information
My vote for the day’s best presented spam.
I totally agree. He hand typed a message related to the topic at hand, and tried to tie his spam into the discussion. Excellent work. 😉
Ruh-Roh! Add Larry King’s 9 ex-wives to the parade to blame Trump.
…..Looks like the Sapiens Ape found a worthy ‘opponent’, at last, should have happened half a century ago BEFORE we smugly indulged in overpopulation and the irreversible destruction of the planet….but then again, it is probably the very overpopulation and subsequent destruction of ecosystems that caused the pandemic….I am not a scientist, nevertheless provided with some common sense, so allow me to think that the more we ‘tamper’ or try to deal with this shit in unorthodox ways, the worse it will get….and YEP, forget about vaccines, they ll turn out to be much less efficient than big pharma and desperate, lobbied politicians want us to believe, long term effects might even be disastrous…. Btw, I definitely hope I am wrong, I really do !
The sad fact is new strains can cause havoc.
A) British strain may be worse – one link below.
B) SA strain more transmissible.
C) New Brazilian strain has hallmarks of hitting younger people.
Long covid, or asymptotic people, might help incubate new strains.
Its not over yet. Link below is after considerable UK analysis and believed to have come via someone suffering with Covid for a while. How many more type might be brewing in India, China etc.
The COVID recession may kill more Americans than COVID-19 does
GEOFF COLVIN
January 6, 2021
The economic effects of COVID-19 could prove deadlier than the disease itself.
So says just-released research, which concludes that the total lives lost to the virus in the U.S. may “far exceed those immediately related to the acute COVID-19 critical illness…The recession caused by the pandemic can jeopardize population health for the next two decades.”
Since most people that died from covid are very old, the true effect of covid is the decrease of life expectancy. So the first one or two years you will see excess deaths, and later the number of deaths will be “normal” as before. The only difference that life expectancy will be 6 months shorter.
Pretty remarkable to me that God, or chance, or whatever “decides” to drop this miracle microbe on the population exactly 10 months before the VERY, VERY, VERY UNWANTED BY SO MANY (but almost guaranteed) reelection of the one man who gave the globalists the hardest time they’d ever seen. Now that their thorn of thorns is removed, let’s go ahead and conveniently rejigger the way we count a positive or a negative case, and let’s move on with the Globalist agenda as if he never existed. Only a child could believe this chain of events is remotely natural.
It’s very odd to find someone here that is awake…nice
You’re delusional if you think Trump threatened globalism. He levied some counterproductive sanctions, jawboned at Iran, golfed, and tweeted. That’s it.
He was a guy who figured out what people wanted to hear in 2016 and rode that wave into the Oval Office, but in hindsight it’s obvious that he didn’t mean it.
How will all the excess deaths (deaths brought forward) affect the life insurers and financial markets?
IMO its negligible
Well, don t know about other people but as far as I am concerned, whether I die from Covid or whatever, we ALL have to die after all, life insurers won t have a ‘problem’ with me, they never got a dime from me either, …incredible actually how the Sapiens Ape has managed to complicate its own existence….
RIP Hammerin’ Hank Aaron. Last public appearance 2 weeks ago getting the COVID vaccine.
So sad, reminds me of a phrase “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”
I still don’t know one person who has got sick or died from “covid” and I know a lot of people who know a lot of people. The only ones “dying” are 80 years old, passed the life of age expectancy dying from other things or old age but labeled as covid….. lol under reported we have already been told if someone dies “from clear alternate” causes they will be labeled covid. Plus the test are a complete joke and now they are notching down the cycle threshold that was testing everyone positive even though they have no symptoms. If you can see this is the biggest scam in world history to usher in the green new deal, build back better, new normal, we are all in this together, new world order, technocratic totalitarian you will own nothing and be happy state then you haven’t been paying attention.
THANK YOU. It’s about time someone properly describes the scam for what it is.
Me either. Been saying this for 10 months now. But the MSM and fraidy cats that populate Mish’s blog these days keep their thumbs in their ears saying nah, nah, I can’t hear you. Sheese.
And this is a world wide conspiracy that Trump and the rest of the world leaders, including China, were all on board with? You have no idea how dumb you sound when you post this BS.
All it took was a change in the president! [lol]
Current, Deadly U.S. Coronavirus Surge Has Peaked, Researchers Say
January 21, 20215:09 AM ET
The devastating fall and winter wave of coronavirus infections that is causing so much misery across the U.S. appears to have finally peaked, according to several researchers who are closely tracking the virus.
It appears that the magic number is 5, as in, for every case that tests positive, they may be an additional 5 cases that are undetected. It would seem that once a state gets to about 11% positive tests, the cases start slowing, and by 15% or so, they may be gone entirely. North Dakota is the leader, with close to 13% having tested positive. Cases still continue to come in, but at a declining rate. They currently are reporting about .21% of the population positive daily, down from over 1% back in November.
Of course it’s hard to tell what portion of the reduction is due to “herd immunity”, and what portion do to interventions to reduce the spread. In any case, adding vaccinated people into the mix, I expect to see declining cases in all states soon.
“It would seem that once a state gets to about 11% positive tests, the cases start slowing, and by 15% or so, they may be gone entirely”
This is likely a localized result of state shut-downs / public awareness.
It’s certainly possible. There are a variety of possible explanations:
…and probably others.
All I know is that we’ve seen big drops in North and South Dakota once the got over 10%, and Tennessee and Utah appear to be falling now. Nebraska and Iowa also have dropped. Rhode Island, Arizona, and Arkansas are all getting up there in cases without seeing a decline, however. We shall see what happens in those three states.
“For every positive test, there are 5 others that go undetected”
Ah, your saying @ 11% to 15% actually represents 55% to 75% respectively.
A look into NYC’s 1rst surge and then it’s more recent surge might give adage to your idea.
Daily deaths from the current surge in NYC is far lower than last Spring, about 20% what it was then, yet total U.S. is double
Exactly. I am saying that is one possibility.
This wave may have peaked but the US has a new wave of at least four plus more virilent strains coming. I expect the next wave to start being apparent in Feb, possibly late in the month.
People are acting the same way as they did cheering on the wars in the middle east. The bombings justified by weapons of mass destruction “that to this day yet to be found “. Let’s see the truth of it all in a few years I’m sure no different now as if the government stated the cure was eating feces I’m sure over half of you would if it were represented in “scientific” way. Laugh all you want its as funny as the left/right fighting between the two parties.
400k, 500k, 1 million. Whatever. Most Covid-19 deaths were/will be of older, overweight, in poor health and often with multiple comorbidities. Perhaps this will scare enough people to start living healthful lives.
And still, the numbers above are a very small percentage against the total US population of 330+ millions.
The age distribution of deaths form Covid is nearly identical to the age distribution of other deaths, except that very few under the age of 20 die. As a result, the average age for Covid deaths is about 1-2 years higher than the average age for other deaths. What is not yet known, however, is how many people will end up with a very long recovery, and/or permanent disability from Covid. The number will presumably be significantly higher than the number of deaths, as a significant portion of people who have had Covid report long-lasting symptoms, even 6 months after “recovering”.
By the way, I remember that back in March you bookmarked one of my posts where I predicted that deaths would reach 50k or 100k, or some such number, so that you could come back and taunt me when my prediction turned out to be ridiculously high. I wish it had worked out differently, and you had been able to taunt me.
….CBS News got rare access to a lab in South Africa studying one of the more worrying new strains of the virus, which appears to have at least some resistance to the antibodies that vaccines create in the human body to fend off the bug.
Virus hunters in the high-risk biohazard lab in Durban are hot on the trail of the mutant strain spreading at breakneck speed across South Africa. The virus has mutated to attach itself more easily to human cells, making the disease no more deadly, but helping it spread a lot more easily.
“We do believe that we are going through a new pandemic with this variant that not only transmits much faster, but that also potentially has less neutralization,” genetic scientist Tulio de Oliveira tells CBS News.
De Oliveira discovered the new variant after observing a dramatic uptick in infections in November. His colleagues in the highly secured lab have developed a live culture of the strain to speed up their research.
Alex Sigal is a senior researcher at the Africa Health Research Institute and at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology. He says the new strain discovered in South Africa appears to have the ability to reduce the effectiveness of antibodies in people infected with the original version of the virus significantly.
“Ten-fold would be conservative,” he tells CBS News, but “you can also have complete knock-out,” meaning a person’s natural defenses to the original strain of the virus could prove useless against the variant in South Africa.
Recall, one of Trump’s last acts in office was to decree opening borders with the UK and Brazil a day or so before the end of his term.
Meanwhile Portugal, with travel from both the UK and Brazil, has more than tripled the rate of infection in the last month.
Hmmm, now why would Trump have done that?
(Biden cancelled the order)
….and who infected the US with a pandemic months before the elections ??
The degree of under-counting with Covid is much smaller than with the seasonal flu, mostly because the numbers are bigger, and they are working harder to be accurate. If the official count is 425,000 and the real count is 500,000, that is only an adjustment of 18%. By contrast, with the seasonal flu the adjustment is normally about 500%. Thus, if they count 8,000 deaths, they multiply it by 6, and the official count becomes 48,000.
I got so tired, back in the spring, of the people who wanted to compare counted Covid numbers for 3 months, with adjusted numbers for the flu for a year. Now we have Covid numbers for nearly a year, and by the time we get to the end of flu season (end of March), Covid will be around 5-600,000 counted, or 6-700,000 adjusted. For those that wish to compare, those numbers can be compared to a typical 6,000 flu deaths counted, and 36,000 adjusted.
Mish, you have to admit it gave a great cover to the real purpose of the printing of $trillions, delaying the inevitable collapse of the financial markets.
Something to remember, remember, remember: Those weekly death counts shown in the blue-line, CDC graph at the top of this posting do not reflect only the direct effects of Covid. They reflect the effect of Covid in combination with the population’s response to Covid. Good luck trying to disentangle these two factors.
The graph’s url is:
It can show the whole US and each of the States.
And a similar graph for other countries is at:
Yes but when every single day on the local news the report is x number died at hospital A and x died in hospital B etc in your area you don’t need a graph to know it’s serious.
Good Stuff thanks. The downward trend in the Weekly counts of deaths by age group is interesting I wonder if that will continue into the new year.
Appreciate the info.
Watch out for these graphs’ values in the most recent weeks. The drop-offs generally reflect that the numbers haven’t all come in for the most recent weeks.
We (the U.S.) account for 5% of global population.
We account for 20% of global covid deaths.
Round of applause for Trump!
Is the Trump base still confident HCQ is a cure for this “fake flu”?…
Is wearing a mask an affront to your personal liberty?…
Will it still soon be zero cases?…
Inject bleach, anyone?
A political movement (cult) is literally a public health hazard, literally.
A post like that just makes you look tacky. It’s not surprising that some things worked, and some didn’t. In the early stages, everyone was guessing, and using incomplete data. As more data has come in, Vitamin D has been shown to have a strong correlation to outcome. Youtube was pulling down videos that mentioned Vitamin D, early in the pandemic, but that was a wrong decision by Youtube, and no doubt cost some lives. Similarly, data coming in for Ivermectin has been almost uniformly positive.
What is done is history now. Let’s look to the future to see what can be done to reduce future deaths.
In late February 2020 I’d stocked on sanitizer, by late March I was wearing a mask at the grocery store & public places, despite the odd looks.
I definitely looked tacky.
At the same time, Trump confidently told the public it was being overestimated by the “fake news” and called it a Democrat hoax. ( “This is their new hoax”)
If he’d at least given a small dose of caution, we’d have lost hundreds of thousands fewer lives.
Covid multiples 200% every four days without public precautions, do the math for whole swaths of the American populace that took him at his word and went on, life as usual in the early months of last year.
They then put all of us at risk.
“Tacky”?….You better believe it.
The US population isn’t particularly healthy. It’s one of the most obese countries in the world and obese people are having a hard time with Covid.
It’s also known that it hits certain demographic people harder than others.
California is one of the most locked down, masked up states in the nation and a democratic bastion. Yet it’s one of the hardest hit states. Does that mean it’s all the Governors fault and a Republican Governor would have saved more lives. LOL.
Whatever Trump did or didn’t do has WAY less bearing on things that people want to admit.
“Whatever Trump did or didn’t do has WAY less bearing on things that people want to admit.”
Cherry-pick all you want, there’s no escaping the empiric – America now has 20% of global Covid deaths, with 5% of it’s population.
America has 4 times the deaths per capita, there’s no avoiding that.
There’s no avoiding Trump’s role, none….we all watched him in real time accusing the “fake news”, “fake flu”, called it a Democrat hoax, fueled complacency with claims about HCQ, refused to mask, the list goes on.
HCQ does qwo if given early; see peakprosperity.com. HCQ was the best advice Trump ever gave.
Nice post TexasTim65.
Last pandemic in US killed 670,000 and Trump was not even born. Yes medical advancements, many since then and yes much larger population(roughly 230 million more) and I would bet population older and not as healthy. All qualitative assessments favor COVID to overtake Spanish Flu.
Prepare yourself for numbers that exceed previous pandemic.
“Last pandemic in US killed 670,000 and Trump was not even born. Yes medical advancements, many since then and yes much larger population(roughly 230 million more) and I would bet population older and not as healthy….”
Then explain why the U.S. has 4 times the deaths of the rest of the world.
I am sure there are many explanations and in time we will know
Very Mobile Society
Kind of Free Society(limited Government control although many want to change this)
We paid for COVID deaths hence more deaths
Significant amount of older people in the US?
Median Age for the world 30 years old
Median Age for US 38 years old
I can’t and neither can anyone else.
You can imagine it’s Trumps fault but there is no way to prove anything he did or didn’t do caused the death rate to be so high here.
If it was Trumps fault you’d expect to see vastly higher death rates in Red states and / or among Republicans or even among those who don’t wear masks/covid deniers. Yet as far as I’ve read none of those things are true and its killing across political lines / state lines / deniers etc.
One day after doing a post mortem on the epidemic in a few years we may figure out why a higher percentage of Americans died than in other countries.
The biggest thing Trump did wrong was to politicize Covid, and then to put himself at the epicenter. What he should have done was let it remain a medical issue, not a political one. He should have appointed a bipartisan committee to handle it, and then stayed out of the way. Once he put himself at the center, he was going to get credit or blame. He thought it would vanish on it’s own, so he wanted credit. When it didn’t, he ended up with blame. It was his choice, so he has to live with the results.
The statistic you are using is useless. Covid death reporting is likely to have a massive error margin, especially in undeveloped and underdeveloped countries. Total world population, however, is fairly well known and reliable. Further, what constitutes death from COVID is still a matter of debate and the US is the only country I’m aware of that paid hospitals for COVID deaths and cases. First rule of subsidies: whatever you subsidize, you will get more of. The US subsidized COVID so, we got more. I’m not even going to bother with the politics involved.
Also something else is funny in terms of flu / Covid testing.
Last year Flu numbers Oct 19 – Apr 20 (pre Covid) were 39-56 million cases.
This year from Sept 20 – Jan 21 there are 1159 cases. Yes, just just 1159 cases. The CDC is suspending their models now for flu for this year. So either we wiped out the flu entirely OR no one is testing for the flu OR flu positives and Covid positives are intermingled.
There’s no flu because the measures taken to stop covid also stop flu viruses.
Right like I believe that. I’ve known plenty of people getting sick that haven’t gone to the doctor simply to avoid being labeled as having covid.
Those measures are so effective that they brought the flu down from 40 million cases to less than 1200 in just one year? Those are some pretty effective measures. It’s a pitty they don’t work nearly as well for preventing the spread of covid.
Duh.
It’s because masking and social distancing and washing your hands a lot works even better for flu than it does for COVID…..that is THE reason for less flu.
Believe it.
Exactly. The flu has an R0 of between 1.2 and 1.4. Covid has an R0 of 3.5, and the new variant is apparently much higher. If we take serious enough measures to slow Covid, we may still not stop it, but we are going to crush the flu. This isn’t just in the US, by the way. The flu has been crushed in most every country.
Seems highly unlikely we could go from 39 million to 1100 just by washing hands more. That’s a success rate that’s off the charts.
Instead I suspect what ohno is saying that many aren’t going to the doctor to avoid being tested/labeled for Covid. Especially since medical facilities are busier than usual.
Keep in mind, also, that the 39m number you hear, and the 40,000 deaths you hear, are adjusted numbers, not the actual number counted. At the end of the flu season each year they estimate the percentage of actual cases that were counted, and multiply it by an estimated correction factor to get the final number. Normally tha is about 6, so 39m estimated infections would come from about 6 milllion positive tests.
Still, keep in mind that with a R0 of 1.2, if you reduce the spread by even a little, that dramatically reduces the numbers of cases. The only way you get millions of cases is multiple generations of spread.
1.2^96=39.9 million
1.1^96=9,412
So, reducing the rate of spread by 10% reduces the cases from 40 million to under 10,000.
I posted a couple comments to TT that have been disappeared for the time being so I will summarize here and hope they return above. The U.S. flu death reports combine diagnosed influenza and deaths from pneumonia and surprisingly few people people are actually testing positive for influenza in previous years (under 8k in the week that the article highlighted). A lot of respiratory conditions that are not clinically diagnosed influenza fall under the ‘influenza like illness’ or ILI category.
**ignore “respiratory” in that last sentence. Still waiting for that edit function to return.
“In week 51 of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “FluView” data monitoring system, 36 positive flu tests were documented. This marks a steep decrease from last year’s total of 7,703 cases during the same time frame. The positivity rate has sharply declined this calendar year as only 0.10% of tests taken this year came back positive. The five-year average is 15.80% positive.”
Based on the numbers in your post, this year 36 of 36,000 tests were positive, while last year 7,703 of 48,700 tests were positive. So, the number of tests being done is down slightly, but only slightly.
Yes, that is correct. Looking at the numbers for diagnostic testing, I was intrigued how few actual tests are performed on an annual basis and that it’s relatively consistent. If one looks at the numbers for deaths with positive tests, this year is on pace to be about 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than other years. I tried posting it before but the comment was filtered out for some reason so I’ll just post numbers and you can look for yourself if curious:
The CDC lists 473 deaths from influenza for the 2008-09 season, just under 8000 in 2014-15, and somewhere in between in intervening years. Pneumonia deaths are relatively stable at just over 130000 during the same years.
Major problems in Manaus Brazil, where earlier this year there had been talk of so many had already had it that herd immunity was likely.
Apparently that was not so…The public health system in Manaus collapsed again this month. An unprecedented surge in coronavirus cases has led to an acute shortage of oxygen. The local manufacturer could only meet a fraction of the demand.
Some hospital patients have been forced to share cylinders, while others have died in bed from suffocation, according to health workers and patients’ families.
The big question to me is will this continue indefinitely (ie year after year) or is it a 1 year blip where those most vulnerable to Covid are dying off (ie deaths pulled forward).
We won’t know that answer until 2021 is finished and whether there are fewer deaths than expected (assuming vaccine rolls out over this year) or whether the trend continues again this year and there is another 500K excess deaths.
As for me, I just finished my 10 day quarantine along with the rest of my family (and many relatives who also were positive). No one was remotely affected by Covid other than loss of smell/taste for a couple of days. The people (about a dozen in total) in question ranged from kids under 12 to adults over 60 with varying levels of health (a couple smoked) but NONE were obese or had respiratory issues.
Keep an eye on your o2 levels and physical exertion. I had mild case slight temp for a couple days. Went back to work two weeks later. I about dropped over felt like i was holding my breath. Made me take it more serious. My o2 level is still not what it was.
There’s on article about that here today. I bought one when my daughter had it in November on the advice of another poster.
Covid: How a £20 gadget could save lives https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55733527
These are very inexpensive for the value they provide in a covid world. They aren’t perfect, but they provide you some help in knowing if you have a serious problem developing. In a Covid world, every home should have one.
Not so accurate (if accurate at all) in dark skinned people. I notice no mention of this in the article you posted. Be careful what you read.
Pulse Oximeter Devices Have Higher Error Rate in Black Patients
A study showed that the devices, which measure oxygen levels in the blood, were three times more likely to give misleading readings among African-American patients.
By Roni Caryn Rabin
Dec. 22, 2020
Yes and use it regularly before you get sick. So you have a base number for yourself. There are also phone apps where you put your finger over the light.
from Washington Post…
Like a speeding car whose brake lines have been cut, the coronavirus variant first spotted in Britain is spreading at an alarming rate and isn’t responding to established ways of slowing the pandemic, according to Danish scientists who have one of the world’s best views into the new, more contagious strain.
Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown, according to Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a government agency that tracks diseases and advises health policy.
“We’re losing some of the tools that we have to control the epidemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, scientific director of the institute, which this past week began sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations. By contrast, the United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases, ranking it 43rd in the world and leaving it largely blind to the variant’s spread.
We’ve also been under quite tight restrictions in the UK for some time and locked down since the beginning of January, I dread to think what it would’ve been like without them.
Maybe there wouldn’t have been any difference. Most people still don’t wind up in the hospital or dead due to the new variants. You are scaring yourself needlessly, likely spending too much of your time listening to your local MSM.
Exactly, I get so tired of discussing this with Covidiots. A decent chunk of the excess deaths are from the 12.5 % of those that get hospitalized with Covid and discharged die within 5 months with heart attacks, strokes etc. Another concerning factor is even tho these newer more contagious mutations of Covid are not supposed to be more lethal the data is possibly not supporting that. Here in LA County we’ve gone from 1 in 8 that are hospitalized with Covid dying to 1 in 4. I think Boris Johnson may have reported something to that affect occuring in the UK as well very recently. Could be due to hospital overcrowding which could be a percentage of these but doubtful a complete doubling.
I believe if the variant is more transmissible then, in net effect, it is more lethal because many more people will get it.
Actually, death rate has risen with the variant from 1% to 1.3 or 1.4%, according to the Brits today…
Many more people have been getting it here, many more younger people, and it’s much more lethal. It’s been quite scary. Every night on the TV news there’s tales of woe, interviews of distressed health workers and families, and the daily tally of deaths. Far fewer people moaning about the restrictions claiming it’s just flu. A lot is resting on the vaccinations and fortunately we’re getting them done incredibly fast. However now the talk is that it’s going to be around for a long time with the aim being to control it with the vaccinations as eradicating it is looking less likely.
Where do you live Scooot … where’s “here” ?
South east Uk, about 15 miles east of London.
Edit 25 miles
I don’t know very much about economics but I do know a little about Covid. We have seen both the UK and also the S. African variant recently …..
they do appear to be more contagious.
But our treatment protocols respond pretty much the same.
Very few hospitalizations and deaths are rare.
It is a shame that so many ‘non-shithole’ countries refuse to use the same methods. So many deaths could have been prevented.
Thankfully the NIH have changed their stance if only slightly.
At the risk of sounding like one of those covidiots I’ve heard so much about, I’ve noticed that a significant percentage of the Covid deaths are among old people and that a large amount of those deaths (40%?) occur in nursing homes. Since the average life span after entering a nursing home is well under one year, it seems likely that many of these death-after-Covid cases are people that would have died six months down the road anyway. So a 500,000 death count is big enough without trying to add more to it. I would even subtract some due to the big $ bonuses the government gives to hospitals for treating Covid “patients”. I put “patients” in quotes because they aren’t usually “treated” anyway. They’re just watched until they die.
Actually, no. The 500,000 is excess deaths. That means 500,000 people died who would NOT have otherwise have been expected to die. If 100,000 people died from Covid in the last year who WOULD have been expected to die from something else, that means 600,000 died from Covid.
At the risk of sounding like one of those covidiots I’ve heard so much about, I’ve noticed that a significant percentage of the Covid deaths are among old people and that a large amount of those deaths (40%?) occur in nursing homes. Since the average life span after entering a nursing home is well under one year, it seems likely that many of these death-after-covid cases are people that would have died six months down the road anyway. So a 500,000 death count is big enough without trying to add more to it. I would even subtract some due to the big $ bonuses the government gives to hospitals for treating Covid “patients”. I put “patients” in quotes because they aren’t usually “treated” anyway. They’re just watched until they die.