Every day I am barraged with Tweets by pandemic illiterates who still compare Covid-19 to the flu, car crashes, heart disease etc.
The same illiterates point to easily debunked articles that claim the number of deaths is overstated and the models are totally wrong.
The above chart shows just how foolish these pandemic non-believers are.
Here’s a second chart of New York that does the same.
New York State Weekly Deaths
The charts and comments below are from the Atlantis article Not Like the Flu, Not Like Car Crashes, Not Like…
The Deaths in Context
Different time scales: We are still early in this pandemic. It has only been a few weeks since the first reported U.S. deaths. Comparing these deaths to, say, an entire year of deaths from car crashes or influenza is not meaningful.
A spike: Perhaps the most noticeable feature of both graphs is the Covid-19 spike — the rapid growth in deaths since the pandemic began. Car crashes, by contrast, show little variation week to week. And even compared to past flu seasons or pandemics, the rate of increase in Covid-19 deaths is markedly faster.The number of new deaths reported in the U.S. in the week beginning March 16 was 678 percent higher than the previous week.
In New York State, the number of new deaths grew thirty-six-fold the same week. By comparison, the worst one-week increase in new flu and pneumonia deaths during the 2017-18 flu season was 26 percent, and during the 1957-58 Asian flu was 48 percent. Although the growth in Covid-19 deaths is now slowing, the number of new deaths for the week ending on April 5 was still more than double that of the week before.
A leading cause of death in the United States: Several weeks ago, coronavirus deaths were few in comparison with other causes. But last week, reported U.S. Covid-19 deaths were just shy of the normal rate from heart disease, usually the leading cause of death. [This week, the Covid-19 death rate exceeded the death rate of heart disease].
The article notes that the number of people in New York who died with coronavirus last week was more than any other cause of death, as many to 76 percent more.
Deaths Overstated?
Once again the pandemic illiterates are out of touch. They accurately note that New York now adds “probables” to the “confirmed” Covid-19 bucket.
OK, the new method attributes a few deaths to the wrong category.
Unfortunately, there are many times that number of deaths not accurately attributed because of failure to test. Those deaths are attributed to the flu, pneumonia, or nothing at all.
The result is deaths have been dramatically understated.
Model Silliness
The naysayers point to the badly overestimated initial death estimates. But those 2 million initial death totals presumed there would be no mitigation efforts.
What clearly has happened is the mitigation efforts worked far better than the models expected.
Died With Covid
Another argument making the rounds is people died with Covid, not because of it. This ridiculopus argument stems from Italy, nursing homes, etc, where people often had other diseases.
Here’s the reality: If you die in a car crash and had diabetes, you died with diabetes. If you die of Covid and had diabetes, you died of Covid.
Timeline Context
Please take another look at the above charts.
Deaths from heart disease and cancer have a known death rate that does not vary much. Hospitals can easily plan for that.
Hospitals can also plan on set rate of auto-related deaths.
Hospitals were not prepared for the onslaught of a dramatic, sudden rise in Covid-deaths even if these people would have “died anyway” which is the essence of the “died with” silliness.
Fools Rush In
Now that the curves are finally flattening, more on flattening in a subsequent article, the fools want everyone to return to work even though it should be crystal clear that the US is woefully behind on testing.
Three Key Questions
- What percentage of people have antibodies?
- What percentage of the population are still carriers?
- Do we track people known to have contact with carriers and if so how?
The fools don’t know, nor do they care about such questions.
They just want to rush back to work in the ridiculous belief the worst is past.
The Most Important Question
What are the implications of making a poor decision regarding restarting America?
Once again, the fools armed with their ignorant logic, and beliefs about what’s going on, just don’t give a damn.
Individual Rights
Yes, individuals have rights.
But contagious individuals who do not give a damn do not have a right to spread disease to everyone on the beach, gym, and grocery store.
Corporations Have Obligations
Corporations have obligations to their employees and customers. One of those obligations is to have a safe working environment and place to do business.
Corporations who do not give a damn if their employees spread fatal diseases will face a myriad of lawsuits.
Government Obligations
Government bodies, especially governors, have obligations as well. They need to protect their citizens.
If and when there is sufficient testing states can make judgments and set proper regulations.
But where the heck are the tests Trump long ago promised?
Trump’s Pitiful Judgement
Meanwhile, Trump’s huge rush to judgment to restart America, despite massively overpromising and under-delivering tests is pitiful.
Governors are wise to resist Trump’s pressure.
Mish
Lies, damn lies & statistics…
Two front-line doctors beg to differ with you.
They have tested thousands and treated.
They know more than any of us:
in which video link:
Coronavirus is a geopolitical tactic masquerading as a medical event.
It’s a mistake to get caught up in the medical weeds.
Interestingly, the doctors cut right through several times to point out that this is not about medicine so much as training people to accept living under extreme control.
A lot has been learned about this virus and COVID-19. We need to use this knowledge to guide us on the path to recovery from the pandemic. This article
makes the case that (1) the only way to get through the virus is either through herd immunity (70% of the population gets it and survives it) or vaccination. Since, vaccination may be years away (12-18 months is a hope, not a probability), herd immunity is probably the way forward, and (2) since deaths from COVID-19 occur disproportionately amongst the sick and elderly; it does make sense to re-open the economy in a way that allows exposure to young and healthy people, and protects elderly and sick. The author provides the data backing up his point and offers suggestions as to how to navigate re-opening.
Removed! Makes you wonder??
Full video :
Guess what! The vaccine companies have written it into law that they cannot be sued??
So who is the fool. To me its abundantly clear. Beg for your injections.
Mish please listen to true scientists in this field who are only now courageously stepping out to stop the extremely damaging policy of mass distancing. A strong YES to targeted distancing and isolation for the elderly and feeble, the rest should go back to work. I have attached just two links to US-based experts but there are many worldwide if you care to learn more. People do listen to you since you have a lot to offer. However, on Covid19, you are only contributing to the endless cacophony of one-sided modeling nonsense that has led to a policy that is economically extremely damaging especially to small businesses and to those with limited resources.
This site does not display the links that I attached.
You are appealing to the reason of people who are privately rooting for the worst outcome. A noble effort, but good luck.
P.S. Keep the government out of my life. The governors are the last morons that I want telling me that I should spend the rest of the year in my house because I might catch the flu.
Egad, man. That first chart is beyond bogus. The COVID (red line) is clearly cumulative, while the other lines are showing per day on a day to day basis. Apples and Oranges. Deaths per million what? Per infected? Per population? We are only starting to get REAL data on the number of infected. Dead/Infected = CFR (Case Fatality Rate) Santa Clara, CA and New York City have just completed studies that clearly show that nearly 50 times as many people have been infected than what was first thought. So, the CFR is dropping to a level that IS THE SAME OR LESS than the seasonal flu. If you’re not over 65, obese or you don’t have one of the many ailments that also come with being obese, you’re good. Stop the panic. Get COVID and get over it.
You do not understand the damn chart
It is deaths PER week – NOT cumulative
The count of deaths per week is accurate
If it was cumulative, obviously it could not go down. Given that the Covid line (red) does fall, you might want to reconsider your comment.
Excellent post, Mish. You’d think the charts would make things pretty plain, but all it seems to have done is bring the trolls out in force. I’ll add to it this link to the CDC. If you scroll down to the mortality chart, you can see that this year’s flu was pretty much typical of any other year, until March-April. Suddenly there was a massive spike in pneumonia deaths, which the CDC attributed to the regular flu. Mmhmm. Yes, I’m sure that the regular flu suddenly became a much more efficient killer in March. In every other year, flu deaths drop sharply in March. I wonder what could be different this year that caused pneumonia deaths to spike in March and April? Must have been, umm, the flu? Yeah, that’s the ticket….
What is my password
How to we account for the longer term health effects of an economy in depression?
Credible articles on the true rate of infection suggest C19 infection rates are 10x or more higher than what we know. Maybe it’s 5X but it’s certain that infection rates are much higher than what we know of.
That suggests C19 may be no more deadly than the regular flu though it does spread more easily and it’s new of course. How does that change the equation?
Could we have done this differently with a more targeted response vs nuking the economy? Hindsight is 20/20 I realize but pretty soon it will become a choice between having an income or living in poverty and then people are forced to choose which looks worse: poverty or the risk of death quite possibly no greater than that of the flu depending on age and the ‘true’ rate of infection.
If you have money in the bank, it’s easy to sit back and say do the right thing, if you don’t the choice becomes much more difficult.
That’s why those people choose to ignore the reality of C19 and they convince themselves it’s no worse than the regular flu which might be true, even though C19 does spread more easily and we have no immunity.
There’s no easy answers.
“Things are going to be getting very real this year, even as some continue to deny reality, to an almost astonishing degree of self-absorption and denial.” –Jesse
Perhaps economics bloggers should stick to what they know, and not take a Peter Navarro “I am a scientist, too” position. Missing in any of this bombastic “analysis” is any discussion of the demographics of fatalities. Deaths in the US, as well as in Sweden, occur primarily in the sick elderly population. Of course it would be an apples to oranges comparison to compare fatalities from COVID-19 to fatalities from the flu (duh), because even the elderly have residual immunity to the flu from exposure when they had a healthy, functional immune system. COVID-19 is a novel pathogen, and those with a less than functional immune system cannot mount an effective immune response in time. Nonetheless, flu fatalities, 80,000 in the US in 2017, were primarily amongst the sick elderly, for whom vaccines are nt very effective because – pushing on a string.. Merely considering the slope of the rate of fatalities, again attributed to an ineffective immune response in those with less than optimally functioning immune systems, without considering the total area under the curve, is sophistry. A rapid rate overwhelms hospitals, to be sure, but likely does not change the eventual outcome in the susceptible population. As COVID-19 will be with us forever, and as the elderly will not miraculously develop an effective immune response, sheltering in place delays the inevitable, as well as prevents the development of herd immunity.
Bravo thank you for using your common sense! Listen to these true US scientists, finally, there are quite a few worldwide.
This site does not display the links that I attached.
Oregon Health Authority is keeping good track of demographics, and indeed COVID deaths are skewed 88% to those over 65. Deaths under 40 is a big fat zero.
55% of deaths have occurred in nursing homes, group homes, etc. A full 18% of the deaths (14 out of 78) in Oregon have occurred at ONE nursing home, which happens to be 4 miles from my house.
Meanwhile, Governor Kate Brown courageously announced today that effective May 1st she will allow medical and dental offices to fully function again. Apparently rural hospitals have been complaining to her that they are going to go bankrupt if she continues outlawing non-medically-necessary procedures.
Do you, or anyone else here, think your perspective would remain the same for a disease that had the inverse relationship with age that COVID-19 (and flu) seems to?
That is, if of all those people such a disease infected (in the millions) it killed 95% of the children under age 5 and 90% of those under 20 and 85% of those under 40 and less than 10% of those over 70 … would you still have the same laissez-faire / cavalier attitude you seem to express now?
Let’s kill all the old people?
Folks over 60 don’t matter?
Which one of those is your message?
Look at the damn chart!
It is deaths PER week – NOT cumulative
The count of deaths per week is accurate
How the hell can anyone fail to see the Covid spike?
And it is way undercounted too
“Let’s kill all the old people”
I’d say quite the opposite: people over 60 or otherwise high risk better be damned scared of this virus and stay home and away from other people for the rest of the year, maybe longer.
It’s not the people under 60 filling up ICU wards, which was supposed to be the point of the government edicts.
Mish please stop using expletives. Did you look at the Stanford epidemiologist study that used anti-body tests in Santa Clara? The death rate is in the order of the flu. Distancing for the elderly and the feeble is what is appropriate, the rest should go to work. No one is being callous about the folks who are at risk, please read what is being said. This what the true scientists (epidemiologists) are saying. Why do you not let links show on this site? Have you calculated how many people have committed or will commit suicide due to loss of income or succumbed to opioid use or resorted to crime? The idiotic models first claimed 2.2 million deaths, then half a million then 250K and now around 60K. This mass distancing self-mutilation has to stop, it is totally useless and in fact, delays herd immunity.
The Stanford “study” was not as reliable as you pretend it was.
Non-random and too small sample … using a Chinese originated test independently shown by various labs to be rated for sensitivity and specificity at ~90-95% when the authors of the “study” themselves acknowledged that anything less than ~98% rendered their results completely useless.
Just Google … Stanford study coronavirus … or check out Peak Prosperity where Dr. Martenson points out the problems in great detail.
Testing equipment with false positives and small samples drawn from a high negative pool can lead to problems. Not sure why they did not just confirm the positives with additional tests. So there is defending to do but I will let good Prof Ioannidis do this. Anyways the way forward should be anti-body tests like this and should have been done a long time ago nationally. Only such testing results should direct national policy. Fyi, NY recently tested 3000 residents for anti-bodies, the result suggests that the infection rate is ten times what infection testing has reported. So OK not 50 – 85 times that Prof Ioannidis claims but who knows how this test was done either, the important point is that this is an order of magnitude different than what is being presented daily. These things are not linear and we are probably well beyond the peak so the fatality ratio will be dropping from here on out. Further anti-body studies will settle this matter. (As you probably know there are many other authorities beside Prof Ioannidis that reject mass distancing, please let me know if you need links).
But we can say that the fatality ratio is well under 1% and that the vulnerable population contains primarily the old and the feeble. Protect and isolate them and let the rest of the population go back to work. Let those with good immune systems help build herd immunity so that the old and vulnerable can come out again. Shutting down the world is not as effective in flattening the curve as targeted distancing besides being horribly expensive in lost wealth, lost lives via suicides/lack of attention given to those with existing illnesses, increased opioid use, and increased crime. In other words, mass distancing is just unnecessary and cruel to impose on the remaining population. Please reflect; the conversation needs to change so that this madness of self-mutilation stops!
Some comparisons of flu and COVID mortality rates across age groups here:
An excellent time to compare Canadian socialized commie medical system to the US patent bankrupcy system. Canada = 12% dead/recovered USA – 36% dead /recovered
But hey look the us spends 17% of gdp compared to Canada 10.7% (with the current gdp those numbers will be much higher)
The virus is horrible and the cure is horrible but maybe people will wake up and finally get medicare for all. Stop paying lobbiest and lawyers and insurance companies and administrators and billing and collection – try paying doctors and nurses and technicians. you’ll like it.
Thanks for the excellent article Mish based on the comments I dont think it will work. Hard to believe after seeing how poorly Trump handled this that people cant see. I guess none are so blind as those that will not see.
Why aren’t houses in Tornado-prone states built out of solid steel? It would CERTAINLY save lives, right? The answer is because somewhere along the line there is a cost-benefit analysis performed and the cost of an all-steel building is seen as being prohibitive. Well, at some point (soon), governments MUST step back and do a cost-benefit analysis of this threat. I disagree with Mish on this one.
Sure, just like Ford did a CBA that led to their Pinto-as-“firebomb” scenario.
Let’s see, using the customarily assigned value of $10M for a life …
But wait, the majority of those who die are the relatively non-productive/”useless” elderly people who already have one foot (or a heart or a kidney or a …) in the grave anyway, so we should probably not allow more than maybe $1M for them …
So at ~47K deaths in the US, we’re only talking maybe somewhere between ~$47B and ~$470B … Chicken feed that the Fed can paper over with the click of a mouse …
Yes sir, I’m sure all those old Ford bean counters would agree … “just let’em burn, it’ll be a lot cheaper for US” …
(SARCASM!)
Elderly with pre-existing conditions should be protected – by them sheltering in place. Unfortunately, whether the slope of the fatality curve is sharp or gradual, they will succumb to COVID-19, as they do with the flu. Comparisons to the flu would only be accurate if we used data from when the flu first appeared on the scene, not from when folks developed immunity to it. Lots of deaths then, but here we are now. Elderly with pre-existing conditions sheltering in place with visitors who cannot infect them, through various means, is the only way. Preventing herd immunity and destroying the economy is a ridiculous overreaction, engineered by elderly leaders who have aged person’s familiarity bias. Boomers, quite screwing everyone, yet again.
Do you think your perspective would remain the same for a disease that had the inverse relationship with age that COVID-19 (and flu) seems to?
That is, if of all those people such a disease infected (in the millions) it killed 95% of the children under age 5 and 90% of those under 20 and 85% of those under 40 and less than 10% of those over 70 … would you still have the same laissez-faire / cavalier attitude you seem to express now?
I suppose Dr Mish might understand viruses ? I’m often amused by people like this displaying the greatest certainty about things they know least about. I remember Max Keiser lecturing on chicken farming !
Or “Mini-Mike” on farming in general…
I know for a fact that nursing homes are getting paid more money for CV-19, so nursing homes generally being run by corrupt vipers, naturally any deaths are reported as CV-19 deaths. Italy over reported, U.S. over reports CV-19 deaths. The actual death rate for those with the virus is 0.1%.
Uh-huh. Yeah … I’m going to need a little more info than just your word on that…
Excellent Post Mish. I half agree and disagree but this is good journalism – well laid out, relevant, and addresses the big question of our day – what to do. My 2-cents… I do agree that without a vaccine and enough test kits we are screwed, people will be walking around with covid for MONTHS! The economic damage is severe already and may grow exponentially and not linearly! Therefore – lets us open the economy, watch and monitor hotspots, more people will get sick and die. Nothing we can do about it so long as the facilities can handle it. Let the unhealthy and elderly quarantine themselves, while the healthy go back to work. Maintain social distancing. While COVID is worse than the flu’s of past, it is not as deadly as we thought 2 months ago. 99% of the population can manage, quarantine the 1%.
Clarification – mortality rate for healthy people is very low. Probably <0.1%. Basically 90% of <60 year olds should be able to go back to work, 10% should worry and quarantine themselves. As for elderly, most are retired and can self-quarantine. Others will have to take some extra steps, but all far better than shutting down the economy. What you cannot put on your charts is – the impact of 10% or higher of all businesses going under.
For most low-risk people it should be possible take some precautions at work: wash hands, wear gloves, don’t touch face, wear mask, keep distance from others, etc. Some jobs cannot be done without such precautions, but many can.
And yes if some people don’t want to take the risk, they can choose to stay home. Shocking fact: no one will stop them!
You left off most important chart data showing 2020 total deaths. Still not comprehensive what you show
My thoughts exactly. I saw a week by week chart of respiratory deaths. Amazing how flu deaths declined as Covid went up. That was right on the CDC’s web page. It was a top result searching on google for Covid-19 mortality rate 2020. Now I can’t find it in google search results. But ever since this has been out, the CDC has always considered probable cases with no testing as confirmed in their numbers. But you can’t compare 2017-2018 flu deaths with 2020 Covid-19. That’s just dumb. If Mich is a doctor and believes you can compare Apples to Oranges he not a very bright one.
You left out the important stat of total deaths now
If this news report has not been posted yet it should have been but it doesn`t fit in with the general screaming Karen mentality. The news article below shows that this virus has been with us a lot longer . These people put down as flu deaths hadn`t been travelling and occurred early Feb way before the previously reported first death. Add to this the anti body study(from Santa Clara) and even some on here can see the big picture. This posting by Mish is yet another wildly inaccurate clickbait doomfest.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-21/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-occurred-in-bay-area-in-early-february
Think of how many lives we could save if we’d just quit driving cars!
That is total overkill. Just put speed limit down to 5KM/H
Or posting on the internet!
Or walking the dog!
Or using stairs!
Or taking a bath!
Yep. We all take risks in order to live the kind of life we want to live. We’re willing to pay the price of many thousands of lives each year in order that we can drive a car. The American way of life comes at the cost of people dying. At what cost are we going to give it up? Is it worth saving everyone in a nursing home that’s already at deaths door? I’m not there yet, but if I were living in one I’d be praying someone would bring the virus to me so I could escape such a miserable existence.
The problem with your opinion is the fact it is based on extremely incomplete information and data that can be proven false.
Citation needed …
The single best Covid related article I’ve read yet – out of many hundreds.
Naseem Taleb explains why epidemiologists/virologists/politicians/instant experts from the financial world etc are vastly out of their depth….
Really interesting and thought provoking article
Thanks for the link, best article I have read so far on the threat.
Glad you agreed. An angle I’d never seen. I agree with the author – the world should listen to Taleb. Even after all this wasted time.
I’m from NZ by the way. We are in the late stages of full eradication. Another very interesting observation I read yesterday was that only 4 governments worldwide have done extremely well – NZ, Finland, Taiwan and Iceland.
Common thread? All have female Prime Minister….
Spot on Mish
Mish, this post of yours may end up the most commented on for quite some time. Looks like you started a pretty active discussion.
And the worst and that is saying something.
According to NYC Health until April 14 over 72% of all deaths were ppl over 65, of which the vast majority had severe underlying medical conditions. Of all fatalities under the age of 65, the overwhelming majority had serious underlying medical conditions (>97%). Doesn’t it make more sense to quarantine the sick and weak, and let healthy ppl go about their business, instead of letting the economy implode. I wonder how you would feel Mish, if you had been laid off and were in line for a foodbank somewhere, bc you can’t feed your family
link NYCH and line foodbank YT
This article is absurd. I’m in Georgia and I’m glad we’re re-opening. People who are not working will soon be starving….how many are we willing to kill from starvation to stop a virus?
I hate to tell you but……The Emperor is not wearing any clothes….but you can’t see that, can you? This virus is simply not that dangerous for MOST people. It’s a fever and a runny nose. Hell, its so weak that a large number are asymptomatic. Are we going to destroy the economy and condemn potentially millions to die from starvation because of a fever and a runny nose? Do nothing and 2 million die; kill the economy and 300 million will die. Given that false choice, I’d still to nothing.
Even the CDC shows that the flu is killing more than this weak virus: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
What do you think of those “data concepts”?
Live is a risk. Life is a gamble. Life and freedom are not for the weak. If you are afraid of this virus and are willing to destroy our freedom and economy because of it, you piss on everyone who struggled to secure it. Our rights and freedom cannot be rescinded with a doctor’s note. Live free or die!
I wish you well. please be sure to lick a Covid victim as soon as you can. and be sure to then lick your extended family. Please. for the good of humanity
“Life and freedom are not for the weak.”
That is correct — sometimes you have to be strong enough to make sacrifices for the greater good. Our forebears appear to have known this – or at least a majority of them did. I’m sure there was a vocal minority that advocated wimpy, ‘path of least resistance’ actions, but that was not accepted in the end. And we’re all better for it.
Also, the whole ‘loss of 300M people’ and ‘mass starvation’ arguments are not in evidence and are not close to reality.
In a world of almost 8 Billion, the number does not sound that unreasonable. So many nations depend on the consumption of the westerner for their own nourishment….and there are very few safety nets for them when business dries up.
By referencing the 2 million estimated deaths in the US if nothing was done, he is clearly talking about US deaths with respect to the 300 million.
I am with you 100%, NM-articles written by people in ivory towers with ZERO concept of what it is like for the millions of people in this country who were already struggling with day to day finances are not just absurd, they are moronic.
My wife and I [ages 64/68] are certainly not rich but we have 2 paid-off modest homes and a few bucks in the bank. We are both RN’s and have taken significant precautions against getting sick and made preparations for how to treat ourselves if we DO become ill.
Our neighbors lost their home just across the road 2 years ago and have been living in an older RV we rented to them.
He was badly injured while working at WalMart shortly before they lost their house and is barely able to walk, WM has fought him every step of the way re: disability, they are not even paying his medical bills.
She works a $12/hr job and has been laid off for nearly a month-she also has big health challenges. They are both under 50. If not for us letting them live rent-free this past winter they would have been on the street in a Montana winter.
And Mish has the unmitigated gall to declare that we must wait for the “expert” governors et al to decide what is best for people like them? Phuque that.
Your comment is pure gold…”Do nothing and 2 million die; kill the economy and 300 million will die.”
I really, really dislike socialists, especially those who are too cowardly to announce themselves as such.
That would be YOU, Mish-as much as I detest Bernie, he at least had the integrity to call himself a socialist.
Doesn’t your lambasting of WM corporation (well-deserved it seems), and willingness to help your neighbors when they need it most, suggest that you might be less opposed to some of the stated aims of “socialists” than you are to how those “aims” get perverted by the same human failings of the “socialists” that also drive the “crony capitalists” i.e. self-centeredness and greed, which are the exact opposite of what you are demonstrating toward your neighbors?
The big difference between what he is doing to help his neighbors and what socialists advocate for is that he is choosing to help his neighbors willingly – no one is taking his labor at the point of a gun and giving it to his neighbor. Or even worse giving it to someone he’s never met 2000 miles away and calling them his “neighbor”.
If you allow people a choice, most of them are quite content to help their neighbors – people from their own communities – in need.
A lot of us however no longer donate to very many charities because a) most of them are not local and b) many of them are on the take. Because it’s impossible to know which ones are good, I (and many others) no longer give anything to any of them.
They can get my share of their money from Congress.
You act like the financial elite powers that be are not taking the labor of millions of workers at the point of the same kind of gun. You know, the way people like our current commandant-in-chief has repeatedly done throughout his entire repeatedly failed business career.
Most posters on this site are aware, and say they are aware, of how the current crony capitalist system rips off the vast majority of people in this country. But I guess so long as you are wise enough to their game to play along with their game and acquire some of their “booty” that makes it all OK?
And I don’t even deny that “If you allow people a choice, most of them are quite content to help their neighbors – people from their own communities – in need.” But I’d say the evidence is pretty over-whelming that is not really sufficient to overcome what the crony capitalist are siphoning out of every such community in the land.
It looks like we’ll soon get to observe some “experiments” … from a recent news story:
“What happens when the coronavirus is prevalent and you send people out anyway?
We’re on the verge of finding out, thanks to some Republican-controlled states that are willing to serve as reopening guinea pigs. The governors of Georgia, South Carolina and Alaska are allowing some businesses to reopen this week, as long as they follow distancing and sanitary guidelines. Tennessee will allow many businesses to reopen May 1. Florida and several other states are working on reopening plans.
None of those states meets the Trump administration guidelines for reopening businesses. Those guidelines say, among other things, that a state must have a declining trajectory of coronavirus cases for 14 days straight before reopening. If the number rises for a single day, the clock resets and the 14-day countdown starts over again.”
And all the states/counties that open first are going to get an economic leg-up on other states/counties. These areas will attract more business, will reap additional sales tax revenues and so on.
The states/counties that hesitate reopening too long are going to see their politicians get voted out of office come Nov.
That’s assuming they don’t get sick, of course. If they did they could be worse off.
Wouldn’t get too excited about the politicians either. Switching between red and blue is a big part of how we ended up in this mess.
Why aren’t you mentioning Colorado, where the governor is starting to open up things as well on Monday? Could it be that the governors you mention are Republican, and the Colorado governor is a Democrat? Just admit your post is nothing but a partisan rant.
Hey parks, I posted that 5 hours ago. No one here seems to be interested in commenting on the actual death counts posted by the CDC for the last 11 weeks.
Perhaps the “illiterates” are just not interested in data from actual death certificates?
I replied. The data is incomplete and therefore does not suggest what you want it to. Go check it out.
The data is interesting, and deserves watching. There is obviously a significant lag between the data from the news services what the time when it finally shows up in the CDC numbers. Note the huge drop in all-cause mortality on 4/18, which reflects the drops in mortality as a result of the lockdowns a month earlier.
Another thing that jumps out at you is the spike in pneumonia deaths in early April, which would have corresponded to late February and early March, when testing was limited. Most likely some of those had undetected Covid. The data from later shows pneumonia going back to normal levels, so presumably the accuracy of counting covid deaths improved.
Thank you Mish for an excellent post. I marvel at people’s inability to grasp even the simplest data concepts. We are about to witness a massive wave 2 coming from the South. Why isn’t anyone talking about how China beat covid19? Yes they were late which makes it even more impressive that they won the battle. I can’t figure out why Trump prefers wave 2 of the contagion over containment? Does he think the economy won’t shut down again?
Where is the data that China beat Covid-19? And do you really think they’ve only had 82k cases compared to the US which has 830k
Trump could be ignorant (likely) or relying on advisors who tell him that if the economy remains locked down, he will surely lose the November elections, but, if the economy is allowed to reopen, while hundreds of thousands of Blue state voters will die, likely they’d not vote for Trump anyway, so he has a chance with this Red state base to win reelection. Those are the harsh numbers that the Trump team is considering.
the CDC data is pretty interesting to look at. look at US deaths from 2/1 – 4/18 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
Take a look at the NOTE below the chart. The data is not complete.
Please stop with your ridiculous notes that the data is not complete. I have looked at this data for the last several weeks, and it continues to show that approximately 16% of the population accounts for almost 79% of the deaths. Please explain to me the logic of locking up the remaining 84% of the population and wrecking the economy. This is ridiculous, and Sweden is making us look foolish.
Perhaps, the mainstream American media and certain politicians are now worried that Georgia might become the American version of Sweden and expose how ridiculous this lockdown has been.
Did you read the NOTE directly below the chart, or is reading comprehension not in your skill set? It says the data is up to 8 weeks or more behind. How is it “ridiculous” to point out the data is not complete when the data specifically says it’s not complete?
So what you’re saying is that 21% of current deaths come from the group you want hanging out and spreading the disease together. That’s sounds like a bad idea to me, but hey I value human life. Furthermore, isolating the other 16% will be extremely difficult while the disease is running rampant in the other 84% of the population. We’ll see how the Sweden experiment works out, but their death rate is significantly higher than the US even with the disaster we’ve seen in NY and nearby states. In comparison to their Nordic neighbors, Sweden’s death rate is very bad.
Frankly, better leadership at the start and we probably didn’t need to lockdown. As it is, get the testing in place, require masks in public, and ask people to maintain social distance and we can open up again. That should seem obvious, but here we are.
Indeed the “by age group” table is very interesting. 21% of the deaths were under age 65.
Mish, I noticed you didn’t include the 1918 Spanish flu in your chart, why was that?
You have taken a lot of potshots at those proposing ways to deal with the crisis, yet I have not yet heard how you think we should be dealing with it. Maybe I missed it?
It is one thing to say the sky is falling and we need more data, testing, and once we have all of that, then we will make a decision on how to handle things. It is another to figure out how to handle things today, right now, with the data we have. Interested in your perspective on that.
There is polarization between locking down the nation and letting people use their judgment, but there is a lot of room in the middle. Same with pumping out money versus letting businesses fail. There is also the difference between a one-size-fits-all approach and handling things differently for inner-city populations and rural populations.
Every day more people are losing their jobs, and with it the ability to pay their rent and buy food for their family. Every day businesses are failing, not because people don’t want to buy from them, but because government prevents that from happening.
Saying we need more testing and bashing Trump is not a solution. Yes, a lot is being done that is bad. But decisions have to be made today, right now (do we let people do what they think is best, do we lock down people and businesses, do we pump more money into the economy). There are economic programs, there are lockdowns, do you support them? What would you do differently today (as opposed to some point in the future when you have more data or more testing)? Should everyone be under the same restrictions, should the restrictions be increased or loosened?
I’m interested in your perspective.
Mish advocates for significant increases in testing. He has been very clear. We need more testing. How more clear could he be? The only way to contain the virus is testing and contact tracing. It’s so simple.
Testing is not a plan, it is a way to avoid making any decision today until you have more data some time in the future. A great luxury if you are a couch potato. Why not just say the plan is to wait for a vaccine, and then decide how to handle?
And many countries where the people don’t associate “stigma” with, or whine about the “inconvenience” of, wearing a mask in public, have done pretty well … in conjunction with aggressive testing and contact tracing.
Yes, take China for example. All we need is a ruthless totalitarian dictator and a submissive sheep-like population, and the problem is solved, right?
We don’t need a ruthless dictator or a submissive sheep-like population … just people with some intelligence and common sense above the level of the common barnyard jackass.
Really? But people in America don’t always do what you want, do they? So how do you get those people to comply without a dictator?? Just admit that is what you really admire so much about China.
“Here’s the reality: If you die in a car crash and had diabetes, you died with diabetes. If you die of Covid and had diabetes, you died of Covid.”
The reality is that few healthy people are dying. Likely, had the person not had diabetes, they would not have died having Covid.
And the reality is that if they had not gotten Covid, they would still be alive. I know many people who have diabetes but who live happy, productive lives, and who have lived with diabetes many years.
Mish is now a fascist POS like the democrats. He is openly rooting for a Great Depression. Mish is now part of the group that wants to make us all political prisoners in our homes. We must all boycott Mish’s site and move on to somebody else who believes in freedom.
Living in the NYC area I can tell you that MANY ppl will tell you of the nasty bug they had in Jan and Feb that had them coughing like a chain smoker for about 3 weeks. Some had mild fevers, some had high fevers.
A coworker’s kid who attends a college in the Northeast tells me her son and his friends at the dorm were all sick mid-Jan with fever and coughs. ALL tested neg. for the flu.
Wife’s father ends up in hosp. in mid-jan with heart failure after taking a cruise. The Dr’s attribute it to eating high sodium food on the boat. He’s there a week and everyday we’re bringing him cough drops b/c he couldnt stop coughing. My wife is an RN. Her hospital has a lot of covid cases, and she’s seeing a good amount of heart failure and cases just like her father’s situation in Jan.
This virus has been here for a few months, but no one knew it back in Jan and Feb so there were no diagnoses for covid. So yes, more ppl have died from covid but A LOT more ppl have had it and recovered. Consider all the healthcare workers who were working in Jan with no PPE. Many likely caught it and got over it.
The problem is that testing negative for the flu does not mean testing positive for COVID.
Plenty of other viruses cause the same symptoms.
History may well prove you right, but we have the same opinion circulating here in the UK. What I don’t understand is why, if this has truly been widespread for months, the deaths only started after the “patient zeros” started arriving from China and Italy (predominant UK sources).
Many covid deaths in Dec, Jan, Feb were attributed to other things. At the same time healthcare workers and everyone else were around these ppl with no masks, gowns, etc, so common sense tells us that many caught it, some died, but most did not even go to the doctor.
The number of deaths is higher. The number of ppl previously infected is also A LOT higher. The LA antibody study is an extremely low sample number. When millions in metro areas have been tested then we’ll have a more accurate percentage of prev infected.
The thing to beware of with those studies is that they are limited by test accuracy. The tests are about 98% accuracy. That is great when you are trying to tell 50% from 1%, but when you are trying to tell 0.1% from 2%, the test just isn’t going to help much. If you test 1000 samples of blood taken from a blood bank that were drawn before Covid19 existed, you’d expect up to 20 positive results. So, when the Stanford test got 50 positives from 3000 tests, you have to remember that the result was 50 positives, plus or minus 60. Thus, the real number of people with antibodies could be anywhere between 0 and 110.
Telemedicine and hopium
… From March 23 to April 6, Fox News personalities and guests mentioned hydroxychloroquine nearly 300 times. But that’s changed in recent days. Media Matters found that between April 16 to April 20 mentions of the drug dropped 77% compared to the previous five-day period….
…During Tuesday’s White House briefing, Trump — who repeatedly asked what Americans had to lose by taking the drug — was asked about the new VA study. He pleaded ignorance. “I don’t know of the report,” Trump said. He promised the White House will be “looking at it.”…
…Despite having previously pushed the drug as a possible treatment, neither Tucker Carlson nor Sean Hannity mentioned the study on their Fox News shows Tuesday night. I didn’t see Laura Ingraham, who reportedly visited the White House to promote the drug, discuss it either. Fox published a digital story on the Tuesday study, but it fell off the website’s homepage after a few hours. And, according to CNN’s Betsy Klein, Trump hasn’t mentioned it in a week…
There is some reason to question to VA study, though it looks bad for hydroxychloroquinone. There is nothing in the report to indicate that they also supplemented the patients with zinc. That is odd, because supposedly the method by which hyrdoxychloroquinone works, if it does, is by getting zinc into the cells where it disrupts RNA replication.
New studies are promising for remdesiver, though. Unfortunately, however, remsesiver is still under patent, and thus much, much more expensive.
Facts seem to have really riled the Flu Klux Clan. They get angry when stripped of their cloak of BS.
The dream cure is to add zinc,
Who am I to disagree?
It traveled the world so terribly,
Everybody is gonna get COVID.
(Name that tune!)
Sweet Dreams by the Eurythmics.
Yeah, sure, it’s a world-wide conspiracy to shut down capitalism/damage Trump. I know there are cases where scared soldiers shot themselves in the foot to avoid the battle, but really now–who really wants what’s going on? This is like gut-shooting yourself so you can get a $1200 check.
The fact is that everywhere in the world that it has been checked (countries and regions in Europe), as well as China, total excess deaths in the time of CV are about 50% higher than the official CV toll. So if you have 40,000 deaths, over the same period of time there are another 20,000 deaths above the “normal base-line” of death. Did the 20,000 die directly of undiagnosed CV? Who knows, but still the number of deaths is 60,000 higher than normal. So in the end, we are under-counting deaths to a certain extent but this is true of any deadly epidemic.
I think it interesting how there is so much blather about China under-counting without realizing this is going on all over in the west.
Given that Trump is the only one claiming special expanded powers in this troubled times, I would think a perfectly valid conspiracy theory would be that Trump wanted the virus to hit hard so he could take on “war-time” powers and wouldn’t have to face re-election.
OK, so lets more than double the supposed CV19 deaths to say 100k. So what? Still a very minor percentage of the total percentage of people in the USA. Shutting down the entire USA economy, killing supply chains, destroying people’s retirements and on and on and on is not justified even by my statement above. We would need deaths in the low millions IMO, to even begin considering the actions that have been taken to date.
Technically, the only cause of death is heart failure.
On the Internet, everyone who attended a calculus class is an expert at mathematics and critical analysis.
Business won’t restart until August 1st when the ridiculous extra $ for unemployment payouts stops. A worker previously paid $15/hour, makes roughly $24/hour on unemployment. Nutty disincentive to work. Business will not be able to hire workers until that bump expires on July 31. Opening won’t happen until then.
What about benefits? If the $15 included health coverage, I would take that.
If you think that extra $600 will really end on August 1st then I have ocean front property in Arizona to sell you. That will be extended until at least the end of the year.
I don’t think so. McConnell is making noises about very limited further money for any kind of “bailout” in the future.
Here in the UK, the roads are getting busier, tradesmen are back working (some while their employers allegedly claim their wages from the government).
I was talking to my wife about the situation last night. We, too, have started to feel like the virus is not an issue. But when you sit and think about that logically, it is simply because it has not affected us or anybody close to us, the deaths seem remote. And I think the human brain is wired to reset itself after 3-4 weeks.
In the UK the numbers are still stubbornly high and yet you have several cabinet ministers arguing for a return to work. I think we will have to see a more severe lockdown to stop the spread entirely before this can happen. Too many people are not following the rules.
I’ve wonder about that, but all the low wage businesses here that are still open, which is most restaurants, but also nonunion stores, seem to have plenty of employees. Perhaps that won’t be the case if more employees are needed as things open up. I think you open the economy as soon as possible based on public health considerations and then see what happens in the employment market and adjust accordingly. I think most people will return to work, but incentives can be adjusted depending on what happens.
Commonsense Quiz: what was the cause of death?
a) You have Covid-19, I shoot you in the head with a shotgun.
b) You have diabetes, you catch Covid-19; you die of massive lung damage.
c) You have Covid-19; you die of massive lung damage.
d) You have Covid-19, you die from a stroke.
Trump and Team failed to respond to the crisis effectively. The lack of masks was a major issue–the ‘you don’t need a mask coverup’ made them look like morons.
Commonsense approach: a national appeal for people to sew masks. Provide on-line patterns and approved materials. Pay $5 per mask if made to specifications. Establish collection points. Masks are compulsory outside the home, and recommended if sharing the home with others.
a) gun shot
b) covid
c) covid
d) Depends on what caused the stroke.
At the grocery store, I see people who just pull their shirt up over their mouth. I wear a P100 full face mask, so I don’t care.
News just out today, in fact, that Covid19 is causing a significant increase is strokes among younger people. They are seeing about 14 times as many strokes among young people as usual. Everyone, young or old, should be aware of the FAST rule: Face drooping, Arm Weakness, Speech problems => Mean call 911. Immediate action is essential to prevent permanent damage.
Regardless of what someone believes about Covid19, they should all be aware of this rule, and if they see any of those signs in anyone around them, call 911.
Yes good post I understand now. It is not really about the number of deaths. We don’t care about that it is the rate at which the deaths occur. As long as we can manage the deaths its ok to let people die and doesn’t really require much more action from the rest of us. I have been trying to understand why all these other deaths really do not seem to matter and I get it now.
Thank you sir.
Your “analysis” looks great to those that are willing to throw on the blinders to “Git Drumpf”. Have you considered the implications of the asymptomatic data that is coming in from multiple studies? I believe you carefully ignored that data to please your current audience that fears the orange man.
Have you bothered to link those multiple studies? No. Because you made that up.
and this is a global conspiracy because the orange man is feared? Get real.
Mish has a good share of both pro-Trump anti-Trump in his audience. I’ve never seen him pander to either group.
Like everybody, he’s choosing the data that matches his opinion on the SAH orders and when they should be lifted.
Something with the Santa Clara and Los Angeles and San Miguel serological studies just doesn’t add up. But that’s 3 data points now (ignoring Boston because it wasn’t well done, was done with low numbers, and the results are such outliers) that should be understood instead of ignored.
Time and science will be the final arbiters and Mish’ opinions will eventually converge with that. Will yours?
I guess if academics do not subscribe to the groupthink, this is what happens. I have no problem with people being critical, but that criticism needs to happen with ALL research, including the research which some cite as justifying the lockdown of this country. I am amazed how rapidly the media attempts to discredit anything which might shed light on the real risk of the virus and, consequently, dial back the panic. I guess dialing back the panic is not good for the media business.
If you cannot ascertain the accuracy of the data you use to argue your point with, how can you be certain of your argument. Antibody testing has occurred in two locations in California, and each purports to show that 25-80% higher infection rates, which greatly reduces the mortality rate. However, who is to say that those tests are accurate? To me, we are all just pissing in the wind with our arguments, including Mish, because there is no certainty the data we’re using to base our arguments on are accurate. I do know one thing and I need only look at the bailout facilities the FED has set up to know it, leave the economy locked down and we’ll all be the state of Illinois that Mish hates so badly for mismanagement. It most likely is already too late, honestly. So, the argument of it just being like a bad flu (or not) is moot and does water down the real point, that the economy was never as strong as it was purported to be, the repo crisis was well underway throughout 2019 and the virus is beautiful cover for the FED and the large banks to do their thing. We’re borderline on the cusp of major supply chain breakdowns (meat is a good example) and we’re all stuck arguing how severe this is while the economy crumbles. We can’t be certain of political or financial motivations behind if deaths are being under-reported or over-reported, another failure of our systems (political & financial). Regardless of if the virus is this bad or that bad, or not that serious… the failure of so many of our systems is evident and we need to be focusing on why. This will absolutely NOT be the last time we’re in crisis mode, and now that we’ve burned as much dry powder as we have on this, we’re severely limited on the ability to tackle the next “crisis”.
“and each purports to show that 25-80% higher infection rates,”
I think you mean 2500% – 8000%
“who is to say that those tests are accurate? “
nobody. that’s why they used such a large range.
there are over 100 different antibody tests being used to test for C19 in the US right now. only 4 are FDA approved.
I was trying to be conservative. You should read the full write up on the gentleman that originally created the very test being used to detect C19. It is a must read
: https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/07/was-the-covid-19-test-meant-to-detect-a-virus/
The antibody tests that show a higher infection and recovery rate are good, but keep in mind that the error rates of the tests make them meaningless. If a test has a 2% error rate, as that one does, and you test 3000 people, none of who have had the disease, you could get anywhere from 0-60 positives. The Stanford test got 50 positives out of about 3000 tests. Were those real? Were they random noise? Scientifically you don’t know, so while interesting, it doesn’t really tell you anything that you can have confidence in.
Still, let’s believe it. If it is true that 2-4% of people have had it, we know that the death rate is much lower than previously believed, but also that it spreads much faster. That will mean herd immunity will take more like 80% than 60% (the higher the spread rate, the more people need immunity before the spread will stop on it’s own). So, we can extrapolate that we are about 1/20 to 1/40th of the way to herd immunity. Take the the 49,000 deaths so far and figure that from the existing cases alone we will probably get to 60,000 before the rest recover, and that caps maximum deaths at 1.2m to 2.4m.
The New York antibody tests are more significant by far. If they show 14% in New York City, +/- 2%, that is 12-16%. That’s a lot more significant than 0-4% from Stanford.