Despite the favorable change in the slope of hospitalizations and deaths, we are still looking at some pretty grim statistics unless we quickly see further changes for the better.
IF the current trends continue, we are looking at 100,000 cumulative hospitalizations by April 11 (call it mid-month) and 100,000 deaths by April 21 (call it end of the month).
I suspect we will see more slope changes, yet I am pessimistic about states late to the lockdown party like Florida and Texas.
I wonder if the 100,000 to 200,000 death forecast by Dr. Anthony Fauci is purposely high. Why? So Trump can brag about a glorious victory of only 60,000 to 100,000 total deaths.
Regardless, I will be optimistic and take a stab at 50,000 deaths by early May. If so, the total count will be on the low end, say 80,000 to 100,00. But that is for the front part of the year. We are likely to see a recurrence in the fall, hopefully at a more containable rate.
The 50,000 by May 1 is optimistic vs some projections.
Covid-19 Total Deaths Projections
Covid 19 Projections Deaths Per Day
The above charts are from Covid19 Projections
The COVID-19 projections assume full social distancing through May 2020.
I rather doubt that but I hope we do good enough.
Trump Backs Firing of Captain Brett Crozier
President Trump said he supports the Navy’s decision to fire Capt. Brett Crozier, but wasn’t involved in it https://t.co/9ZF0hFypTl
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 5, 2020
What did Crozier do?
He sent a coronavirus plea for health. Hundreds of his crew were infected and social distancing was impossible.
What About Recurrence?
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1246591272305000448
Europe Became the Hub
Travel from and within Europe preceded the first coronavirus cases in at least 93 countries, accounting for more than half of the world’s index cases. Travel from Italy alone preceded index cases in at least 46 countries. https://t.co/vjmGHMQuFb
— The Intercept (@theintercept) April 5, 2020
Nate Silver Chimes In
This is a very good essay by @NateSilver538.https://t.co/4DNfSBycSL pic.twitter.com/HreLkPd9h1
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) April 4, 2020
US Impounds Shipment of Masks
Absolutely crazy: Two major shipments of PPE purchased by MA (by the governor) were impounded by the federal government en route. Feds then cited “force majeure” to compel them to sell the millions of masks to them instead. HCW in MA be damned. #COVID19 https://t.co/LEMrdXrdNU
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 4, 2020
Doubles
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1246575631078391809
New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan are the most troubling.
Florida expected due to the huge delays by the Florida governor. He did not even close the beaches.
Mislabeled Pneumonia Cases
Mislabeled “Pneumonia” Deaths
Purposely? https://t.co/GR3sRU7ASU
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 5, 2020
Underreporting of Covid deaths is massive.
Watch Florida
On April 1, I noted Florida Governor Finally Restricts Movement To Essential Services.
My comment was “Watch this Circle”
For details on the firing of Captain Brett Crozier, please see Nightmare at Sea: Aircraft Carrier Needs Help as Social Distancing Impossible.
Capt. Crozier said that the ship’s close quarters rendered the carrier unable to comply with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for social distancing. He wrote that close quarters, shared meals and bathroom spaces are “most conducive” to the spread of the virus.
I consider Crozier a hero for trying to protect his crew. Instead, he was fired, and Trump supports the move.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
And now the captain himself has tested positive, indicating that things are indeed serious within the ship. Perhaps Trump should also test positive so he starts understanding that everything everyone says or does is not a political game against him.
FYI Crozier has now tested positive for Covid-19. Talk about adding insult to injury!
Assuming he pulls through, he’ll be just fine. He got to depart as a hero, he’ll have a few well-paid TV interviews, then a book (for sure), and cushy retirement as a result.
Cases are progressing about according to my projections, but deaths aren’t going up quite as fast as I projected. We are still track to hit 20k by the middle of the month, which will equal the regular flu. It definitely appears that the shelter at home orders, lockdowns, and social distancing are getting the job done. It is looking likely that we may stay under 100k deaths by the end of May. That, of course, will cause the naysayers to foolishly say “see, we didn’t need to shut things down”, not realizing that the low number of deaths was ONLY because things were shut down.
It also doesn’t address what will happen after May. The models show it dropping to zero, but I think that is very unrealistic. They will open the economy somewhat, and that will bring more deaths. From May onward will be a balancing act, how much must they restrict the economy, versus how many deaths are acceptable.
There are too many idiots in this country. Heck the country is led by a couple of idiots. From Orange Hair man to his son in law whose only qualification seems to be “I sleep with the president’s daughter every day and that makes me an unqualified genius”.
If it hasn’t been posted, here ya go. A slightly different approach to tracking and full of filter capabilities.
link to aatishb.com
Regarding the comments about Captain Crozier, he knew exactly what he was doing: sacrificing his career for the welfare of his sailors. It’s interesting to note that the defense of the Nazis accused of war crimes was always that they were following orders. It didn’t work at Nuremberg and it doesn’t work now.
LIVE COVID-19 TRACKER USA States
Last Updated: 1 minute ago link to yogeshchauhan.com
“Personally – I don’t give a damn about anything other than it is clear he was concerned for the crew. Fuck the military chain of command. I would have been booted out day 1.”
Since no one else apparently disagrees with this, I feel compelled to call it pure bullshit.
Had Grant held similar concern for “the crew” after Cold Harbor, we’d be two countries now. He just went alone to his tent and cried.
The murderous bastards atop the CCP in Beijing were no doubt watching this episode with keen interest, as was Moscow.
The question: Can a key branch of the U.S. military be effectively disarmed by a virus?… has at least been temporarily answered with NO.
By Mish’s own admission he would have been booted out of the military on day 1. I find it hard to disagree with that if he has zero respect for the chain of command.
Regarding Crozier’s dismissal, other than what I have read in the notoriously inaccurate press I have no idea what actually happened. Difficult to comment on that without looking like an uniformed idiot. I have to trust that the US Military is still capable of correctly managing its own internal affairs. If not, then the US is in a lot worse shape than we realize.
“Difficult to comment on that without looking like an uniformed idiot.”
Freudian or did you miss the n on purpose?
(And don’t try any excuse about your spillchucker)
Good catch. I was a uniformed idiot once and resemble the error, if intentional.
Actually, I think my usage of “an” in “an uniformed idiot” is correct. I had to look it up to confirm it, and the first resource I found did not explicitly address the usage of words beginning with a “yew” sound as in “uniform” versus words beginning with an “uh” sound as in “uninformed.” The selection of “a” or “an” is based on whether or not the following word has a consent or vowel sound. An equivalent example would be, “I open an umbrella when it rains” which is a different case than “I dress in a uniform for work.”
There is no way in hell I was going to Vietnam. Start there.
I would have refused to go. I do not believe in forced servitude. Slavery is the correct word actually.
My hero in the Vietnam War – Muhammad Ali, Not John McCain
Ike was the last great president we had. He warned about a lot of this stuff that is happening now.
There is a moral obligation to protect the troops. The captain did. and we are not at war. Case closed for me.
He was a hero.
Mish
I was Navy enlisted. My division officer kept badgering me to apply for the Naval Academy Prep School, so I did. Surprise to me, I passed the exam, but had to interview successfully with a 12 officer screening committee to get the nod.
The interview was held in August, 1964 just after the Bay of Tonkin incident. A predictable, early question was, “What do you think we should do about Vietnam?”
I replied that I thought we should heed Eisenhower’s advice and avoid a land war in Asia. The room exploded. I didn’t have to say another word for 30 minutes, but I made note of the debaters positions; It was an even split, 6 and 6, for and against U.S. involvement.
Another surprise, the committee unanimously approved my appointment, but I went back to my division officer and had a long talk. He was a bright, convincing guy, eventually retired as Rear Admiral upper half, and convinced me to go on to the Prep School, despite my misgivings about our obvious Vietnam drift.
The drift accelerated. Before the time came to commit to the 6 year obligation, I opted out and told the Navy I’d just finish my obligation in the fleet. They asked where I wanted to go. I said Mediterranean, and on a big ship. I was tired of tin cans.
They sent me to the Carrier Independence at Norfolk, bound for the Med in two weeks. Before we got underway, the assignment was changed to Vietnam and I spent the next year off Yankee and Dixie stations, Vietnam.
Lost friends there. The only thing worse than the military is no military, or a weak one.
“The murderous bastards atop the CCP in Beijing were no doubt watching this episode with keen interest, as was Moscow.”
If the CCP had any real sense (which they don’t. Just see the silly posturing over Taiwan), they’d pay more attention to the “chain of command” in operation among those who kicked first Moscow’s, now “ours”, rear. And on a military budget more proper for a free country as well…
But, since getting ones tail kicked by properly free and armed people seem to be a rite of passage for inclusion in the “superpower” club, I’m sure Beijing will push the Belt and Road initiative all the way up to where they get theirs kicked as well….
I’m skeptical about the drop-off in hospitalizations because hospitals are hitting capacity limits. Just look at the patient-crowded hallways in bad areas.
Just going outside has become scarier every day in upstate NY. Yesterday had nice weather and most people thought it would be a good day for yard work. I saw an old man by the convenience store across the street from me with a younger woman who was yelling at him to move along with her as he stood gripping a signpost. After about 20 minutes he made it about 20 feet and it was ambulance time. Nobody wants to believe how bad and sudden the virus is, but it’s doing what it does anyway.
good point on capacity!
There really is a breakdown of confidence at all levels of our officials for me.
The WHO was in February criticizing mild travel restrictions as being counter-productive and stigmatizing to Asians. The WHO can’t help but agree with every Chinese propaganda that comes out. Can’t even say Taiwan’s name. Buy all of their BS numbers.
Trump has been a bully and moron most of the time. He can’t do a press conference without attacking the media or making a joke about how he has done models. He downplayed it as the common flu and a lot of people took his lead.
My governor Whitmer has been an indecisive idiot. Sending out contradictory messages to teachers on what they can and can’t do and finally sending out a confusing final order 3 weeks after following Ohio’s lead to close schools. Saying she will punish any doctor who prescribes the medication Trump touted to blaming the federal government just 4 days later for not getting that medication to our state.
Healthcare experts from masks don’t work, to masks only prevent the wearer from spreading it, but doesn’t help the wearer, to N95 masks aren’t really any better than regular masks, to N95 masks are better and they work and you can’t have them only doctors can.
Xi is a typical lying dictator.
What major world leader looks to have done a superb job? Conte? Johnson? Trudeau? Merkel? Macron?
Biden got loud cheers from a campaign stop on January 31st for saying travel restrictions were xenophobic and would cause more spreading.
Obama saw the N95 masks in the national stockpile depleted 75% in his first year in office due to the swine flu and over 7 years never sought to restock it.
Even Fauci said asinine things like this was no threat when it was obvious to most of Mish’s readers it was.
I have no confidence in our leaders.
There aren’t really any good American leaders today, simply because nobody needed to be a good leader post-1945. Only very rarely has anyone had their feet held to the fire for bad policy decisions and even then the consequences are mild. One example might be McNamara being chided for Vietnam, but he still lived into his 90s and died comfortably wealthy.
It’s human nature for people as old as Trump, Biden, and Fauci (all well into their 70s) to think they’ve seen everything, but in reality they have lived in a bubble all their lives. They believe we can keep printing money and spouting platitudes and everything will go on as normal, but of course a pandemic doesn’t care about their talking points.
We’d be just as well off having college kids run this show instead of septuagenarians, they all have the same level of experience dealing with the real world.
It’s much easier if you stop thinking and pick a team.
The mistake is in thinking that either “leadership team” is interested in anything other than their own power and wealth.
I was reading the Post article on the muddled government response to this crisis. They do their best to focus all the blame on Trump, but I think this is the key paragraph:
“Among the costliest errors was a misplaced assessment by top health officials that the outbreak would probably be limited in scale inside the United States — as had been the case with every other infection for decades — and that the CDC could be trusted on its own to develop a coronavirus diagnostic test.”
Our government sucks.
“I have no confidence in our leaders.”
Which leaves you only a dropping of the “our” from true enlightenment.
Most everywhere in the country is in forced shutdown now and voluntarily so, elsewhere. There is talk about things getting even tighter with the Washington bunch involved.
Up until now, this has been worrisome to me – a police state.
Actually, this could turn out much more like Atlas Shrugging – something I’ve been dreaming about for decades. ‘Our’ government believes it needs US – but it’s the other way around.
Bring on the shutdown. Those who can choose, choose not to do income-producing work. Or just do less.
Don’t risk your health by working too much; take time off without pay (or income withholding). Watch the Washington regime crumble.
Ayn Rand fantasized it. Alan Greenspan was one of her disciples. What does he think about the effects of the shutdown in comparison with Atlas Shrugged?
A while since I read that book, but time for me to go back and read it again! Still, as I recall, it did not provide for the vulnerable in our community, those with genuine disabilities etc.
Yes. Just take care of your own first. If you have more to spare, take care of those in your community, state, nation, etc.
I see the the stay-at-home orders as they exist to be gross instances of arbitrary rule. Not that emergency stay-at-home orders are unjustified, but that they have not been done in a legally objective manner. In Oregon, the order had no reasoning about how long or parameters for relaxation, it amounted to: Until the governor changes her mind.
By June, if states are continuing their lock downs in such a manner, that arbitrary rule will be on the verge of provoking civil disorder, which could be the next lower rung of this unfolding hell.
Crozier probably knew he’d be fired but that, otherwise, the higher ups would never listen. And the men would still be on the ship.
BTW, We’re not supposed to be at war.
Perhaps he genuinely wanted to spend valuable time with his wife and children, protect his people on the ship, and dam the consequences.
The consequences are good for all.
The State thrives on war – unless, of course, it is defeated and crushed – expands on it, glories in it. – Murray Rothbard
“Who can look at anything any more…a door handle, a cardboard carton, a bag of vegetables…without imagining it swarming with those unseeable, undead, unliving blobs…waiting to fasten themselves on to our lungs?… Who among us is not a quack epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and prophet? Which scientist or doctor is not secretly praying for a miracle? Which priest is not…secretly, at least…submitting to science? The virus has…struck hardest, thus far, in the richest, most powerful nations of the world, bringing the engine of capitalism to a juddering halt… The mandarins who are managing this pandemic are fond of speaking of war… But if it really were a war, then who would be better prepared than the US? If it were not masks and gloves that its frontline soldiers needed, but guns, smart bombs…fighter jets and nuclear bombs, would there be a shortage?… The tragedy is immediate, real, epic and unfolding before our eyes. But it isn’t new. It is the wreckage of a train that has been careening down the track for years… What is this thing that has happened to us? It’s a virus, yes. In and of itself it holds no moral brief. But it is definitely more than a virus… It has made the mighty kneel and brought the world to a halt like nothing else could. Our minds are still racing back and forth, longing for a return to ‘normality’, trying to stitch our future to our past and refusing to acknowledge the rupture. But the rupture exists. And in the midst of this terrible despair, it offers us a chance to rethink the doomsday machine we have built for ourselves. Nothing could be worse than a return to normality. Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next. We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice and hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly, with little luggage, ready to imagine another world. And ready to fight for it.”
The article is at:
Thanks,@numike .
“Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew.”
is on a lot of minds.
Regarding the Navy captain.
Nobody – and I mean nobody – reaches the rank of captain in the Navy without knowing the consequences they will incur for violating the chain of command. It’s not possible that he “didn’t know what was going to happen” or that he “didn’t know the letter would leak.”
Based on that, I have to assume that he did what he did with full knowledge that he was going to be relieved.
There could be a million reasons why he decided to do it now. When I was in, I witnessed other officers and senior NCOs do similar things when a long line of abuses and idiocy eventually reached the proverbial straw that finally broke the camel’s back.
As I said in my other post, I would hope that he did it out of a sense of duty and loyalty to those under his command. But it’s also possible he did it for personal gain.
In any case, the reality is that none of us were there when he made the decision so none of us know. Only time will tell.
And for those of you pitching a fit about “following orders no matter what” – I would wager that either you never personally served, or if you did, you never led men in combat.
Nothing is ever cut and dry on a battlefield and no plan – no matter how well written and planned – survives first contact with the enemy.
He’ll let us know his reasons in his book. (Only half sarcastic.)
….Likely less than half..
The publishing industry, as well as the market of reliable book readers, are both very prejudiced to be critical of the US military. Both in the US, and internationally. A story like this, is an easy pitch for an agent.
Mosh, he was fired because he sent out a bunch of copies and one was leaked. If he had kept his concerns contained to the chain of command, he’d still have his job. King of low of you to leave out all the information.
Personally – I don’t give a damn about anything other than it is clear he was concerned for the crew. Fuck the military chain of command. I would have been booted out day 1.
A study from Spain .
“All else being equal” it looks at excess fatalities to a normal, finds under reporting of virus in some regions, and over reporting in others like Madrid. I think the appearance of over reporting virus is possibly that of those already in poor condition. There is a clickable graphic which gives basic figures.
Crozier’s letter was sent unencrypted, and revealed that a front-line unit was not just off-line, but stripped bare of personnel to the point it couldn’t even defend itself. It is also docked in easy range of an adversary’s weapons.
The priority list is mission, ship, crew. He decided to abandon the first two in favor of the last. Among that crew’s demographics the virus would likely kill less than one missile hit. Unpleasant choices are part of military life.
So I understand why he was canned. In a past career I was MM1/SS.
I understand that you cannot allow the circumstance outside of the military circle, which is why he was relieved. The alternative is openly permitting anyone to hold leverage against their superiors by their being able to use public influence, that is just not possible for an ordered reality. The military knows that individuals are able to contest command this way if they so choose, so it is a balance of understanding, but in no way are they able to encourage that.
Arguably, without crew he has no mission and no ship.
He seems like an achiever
That means that when he judges something must be done, and it isn’t, it gets done anyway. He was closest and in command of a circumstance, his job was to take that decision.
Aviate navigate communicate – pilots are taught to be independent.
Or
“I do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic”
It comes before taking orders, and so the argument is at a different level now – the presumed allegation of an unnecessary lack of response endangering his mission, ship and crew.
The captain should have followed the chain of command … he should have indicated his full compliance to the Rear Admiral by sending a full dozen infected crewmen in the worst shape directly to the Rear Admiral’s quarters to deliver the message.
Re: reoccurence tweet.
This graph relates to a theoretical process of triggering more intense suppression strategies in the UK based on numbers of ICU cases and has absolutely NOTHING to due with the forecast of the progression of the disease in the US. The text under the graph is supposed to read….
Figure 4: Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are
triggered; other policies remain in force throughout. Weekly ICU incidence is shown in orange, policy triggering in blue.
ANYONE using that “peak and valley” chart except for “what-if speculation” doesn’t know what they are looking at.
The study also says…
Given that mitigation is unlikely to be a viable option without overwhelming healthcare systems,suppression is likely necessary in countries able to implement the intensive controls required. Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required (Figure 3, Table 4). Measures are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration.
Let that sink in–5 month duration.
5 MONTH DURATION !!!
If gov run tax funded schools are shut down for 5 months, and kids watch Khan Academy etc instead, people might realize that US “public schools” don’t serve the purpose of educating, only of babysitting.
….And indoctrinating. That’s the biggie.
I’m curious about the sharp peaks and falls in the projected illness rates. The transmission in hot and humid weather is pretty good from what is being seen in the southern hemisphere so a seasonal drop to near zero seems to be pretty naive. Or is this an attempt to show the effect of on or off shutdown? The reality is we have a variety of outbreaks going on right now in different parts of the US so one curve will not fit all.
Zero Hedge: “Some governors take a firm line against a state-wide ‘one size fits all’ approach fearing decimation of local economies…”
10 million people are out of work already. ZH: “By the New York Times’ numbers, some 311 million people have been urged to stay home in at least 41 states.”
Also from ZH: “Tucker Carlson On Fauci’s Quarantine Call: Pushing “National Suicide” While He Has Job Security”
Sucharit Bhakdi, Emeritis of Medical Microbiology, in Germany, said similar of what is occurring Germany, in an open video letter to Merkle. “The reason for my concern lies above all in the truly unforeseeable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe and which are also already being practiced on a large scale in Germany.”
In Spain they just announced that multiple extensions to state of emergency are planned. Each extension is two weeks, and the current date of end is 26th of April. They will lift the existing total restrictions on all non essential business activity in a few days, they say.
Chain of Command—must be followed –The bed rock of the military–
If the chain of command doesn’t earn and deserve respect then morale falls. US services are willing to demonstrate their lack of confidence by fragging their officers
The chain of command does not have to be followed when your senior officer is putting your crew needlessly at risk during peace time. The Rear Admiral should have been relieved of command and placed under arrest.
A veritable frenzy of predictably vacuous bullshit from Sechel, “Him not contacting his commanding officer who was on the ship is too obvious an oversight. There’s a story there. I’m sure of it.”
So am I. The story is that when a U.S. Navy Rear Admiral hears you out, disagrees on course of action for whatever reason(s), and tells you to back off, You don’t sullenly slink off to roll your own plan via media hacks. DOA, career…well deserved.
Yeah Sure. Then Let’s fire the White House Clown.
He’s the only clown we’ve got, the one I voted against when it counted.
Yet another reason for getting rid of clowns, period…..
“when a U.S. Navy Rear Admiral hears you out, disagrees on course of action for whatever reason(s), and tells you to back off, You don’t sullenly slink off to roll your own plan via media hacks.”
Yet when a Chinese doctor does the same thing, he is magically a hero, while their version of “Rear Admiral” is somehow the villain……
The whole point of “open societies” is to encourage dissent. Someone disagreeing with you, don’t mean you are wrong. Nor that you are off the hook for not doing what you think is best, for saving lives in your power to save. I somehow doubt St. Peter finds “I was protecting my career”, nor “I was doing my job” acceptable excuses for knowingly letting people dependent on you, die in vain.
And so, Stuki, what is your plan as the CCP virus spreads to the other Navy ships?
Communist anything is effectively countered by arming the heck out of those the commies may wish to designate mere workers in their workers paradises. I would hope Navy sailors are at least somewhat armed, so there’s a start….
As for covid spread, the only thing which has proven to work, is lockdowns, disinfection and heavy testing. Then, once every last onboard case is gone, 14 day quarantines for everyone who have been ashore. Which probably indicates a change towards longer consecutive tours for sailors once they finally have made it out of quarantine.
You have to keep ships free of the stuff, as they’re not big enough to accommodate infrastructure required to keep it under “control” once it’s there.
And you would be dead wrong on this one, Mish. His mistake was stupidly trying to leverage friendly media to bolster a good case, without expecting massive and immediate blowback. How many captains in a 600 ship navy would be likely to use similar media leverage in the coming few months when their crews become similarly infected? About 240 by my estimate, roughly the political split in the country. The Pentagon had no choice, thanks to a politically stupid, full bird, Captain.
I think he knew that he would be relieved, there is no space for breaking rank like that. So his motive is the only question maybe, and what he was communicated will probably not be revealed, I start with that he did not want the lives of his crew on his conscience for not pressing hard enough, until otherwise. I just don’t see a reason for him to be denied the facilities he was asking. The crew are all unable to leave that circumstance, fully under the responsibility of the navy. If a serviceman were in the US he could take that responsibility on himself, but there they have no choice.
There were thousands of sailors in escort and support ships watching this goat rodeo. How would you handle the next dozen captains demanding similar special consideration when the inevitable pandemic hits their ships?
The vast majority of the crews are in their 20s, their officers in their 30s and 40s.
While any death is a tragedy, a disabled Navy is potentially a test…for a future struggle.
I agree that this should not be in public, that the response is to be relieved. It should not have come to that, I don’t know if the captain had other options, if he just pre-empted because it was an opportunity or if he had really reached a limit he would not pass. Either way it reflects badly on command. I won’t pretend to guess what military strategy is re. the virus, my view is, to the best of my knowledge and in reply to a previous post (where it was suggested to let the virus run and not segregate on shore) :
” (How many on board, 5000 ?)
So call half infected now, a third of those disabled (700) and fatalities (5).
VS.
Near all infected, disabled (1400), and fatalities (10).
The ship is not in immediate action, so the imperative is to save lives and functionality. One of the choices above is the better for the running of the ship. I think he has the right view.
……
You have less ability with twice as many discapacitated in conflict. I mean a charge of the light brigade against a virus and you are only going to lose. We are guessing at numbers obviously, but it isn’t going to improve morale for sailors to see their mates
lost needlessly.”
Calculated using 0.2% IFR etc.
It is not something that we are able to properly argue over because we don’t know the full details, and we likely won’t know those in future either.
You could disable the Navy and nobody on the planet would care.
For a few hours, until some tin horn shut down the Straits of Malacca with his tugboat, or Gibraltar, etc. No one ever needs the military, anywhere until the tanks coming over the hill are discovered to have foreign markings. Ditto the Navy.
The captain should have followed the chain of command … he should have indicated his full compliance to the Rear Admiral by sending a full dozen infected crewmen in the worst shape directly to the Rear Admiral’s quarters to deliver the message.
Earlier, i read that some 100,000 people had signed onto a petition to reinstate Captain Crozier.
I don’t think Russia or China is going to start a war with the U.S. just because a number of military have contracted CV-19 and are temporarily out of action. The firing is an over reaction.
It’s up to 232,000 now.