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CPI Jumps Another 0.4% in October Led by Shelter and Energy

The CPI jumps again but year-over-year things improve to 7.7 percent inflation. Hooray?
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CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Key Points

  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September.
  • Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  • The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing. 
  • The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased. 
  • The food index increased 0.6 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.
  •  The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September. 
  • The indexes for shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, new vehicles, and personal care were among those that increased over the month. 
  • Indexes which declined in October included the used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares indexes. 
  • The all items index increased 7.7 percent for the 12 months ending October, this was the smallest 12- month increase since the period ending January 2022. 
  • The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months.
  • The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending September.

Bloomberg Econoday Consensus

Economists at Bloomberg Econoday expected a 0.7 percent overall rise, and a 0.5 percent rise excluding food and energy.

The results were much better than expected, but not exactly great, or even good. 

CPI Year-Over-Year 

CPI year-over-year  data from BLS, chart by Mish.

CPI year-over-year data from BLS, chart by Mish.

CPI Year-Over-Year Details

  • CPI: 7.7 Percent
  • Shelter: 6.9 Percent
  • Core CPI (CPI Less Food and Energy): 6.3 Percent
  • CPI Food and Beverage: 10.6 Percent

Year-over-year the CPI is decelerating but bear in mind the Fed's target is 2.0 percent.

CPI Month-Over-Month Energy

CPI Month-Over-Month Energy 2022-10

The energy index jumped 1.8 percent in October led by gasoline up 4.0 percent.

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Those using heating oil will see things much differently. Heating oil rose 19.8 percent. Natural gas declined 4.6 percent.

The energy index is 8.01 percent of the CPI.

CPI Month-Over-Month OER and Rent

CPI Data from BLS, Chart by Mish

CPI Data from BLS, Chart by Mish

Shelter Points

  • Rent of primary residence is 7.352 percent of the CPI.
  • OER is 23.977 percent of the CPI

Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) is the price one would pay to rent their own house from themselves, unfurnished, and without utilities. It is the single largest component of the CPI.

The BLS averages out rent and OER, but consumers take the hit all at once every month when they renew their lease.

It will be very difficult for the CPI to decline with shelter rising as much as it has every month. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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