A global recession now seems baked in the cake.
The definition is a bit obscure, however.
Some define a global recession as global growth less than 3.0%. Some say less than 2.5%. And some say it’s growth under 2.0%.
I suspect it is irrelevant which definition one uses.
Economic Madness
Global recession talk picked up as Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico Over Immigration.
Mexico is the US’ third largest trading partner.
These tariffs are madness.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The real way to deal with foreign companies “dumping” product into the market:
Poloz was completely and utterly out to lunch when he claimed the Canadian economy would pick up strength. Not with the housing collapse in progress, and now the freak-out in WTI. The gold sector might start to perform well, but a miniscule number of Canadians are actually sector participants. Canadians are absolutely pickled in consumer debt (even worse than the US at its peak) which pretty much guarantees the necessity of cutting well beneath zero rates-wise.
WTI is sh*tting the bed today – down almost 6%. Nothing to see here. Move along now.
Mish, what is the immediate cause of inversions: (1) short-term risk aversion, as in investors thinking everything else is looking like a losing proposition for the next several months or few years; (2) expectations that central banks will soon be bidding up the short end; (3) both; something else ?? Thanks.
2, but more generalized. It means that interest rates will be steeply falling soon and that investors wanna lock in the higher rates in the form of long term bonds before that interest rate drop happens
Seems like people are willing to pay a lot to get a positive interest rate over a long duration. I assume many expect central banks to cut rates and for increasing amounts of negative yielding debt.