The answer is yes, but the context is much different.
What Is the Bazooka Theory?
“If you’ve got a bazooka in your pocket, and people know you’ve got it, you may not have to take it out.”
Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson made that statement on July 15, 2008 in during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding government support for mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Paulson Fires Bazooka
In October, Paulson fired his bazooka in what was the start of the biggest bank bailout in history.
Please recall Compelling Banks To Lend At Bazooka Point written October 15, 2008.
The chief executives of the nine largest banks in the United States trooped into a gilded conference room at the Treasury Department at 3 p.m. Monday. To their astonishment, they were each handed a one-page document that said they agreed to sell shares to the government, then Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said they must sign it before they left.
By 6:30, all nine chief executives had signed — setting in motion the largest government intervention in the American banking system since the Depression and retreating from the rescue plan Mr. Paulson had fought so hard to get through Congress only two weeks earlier.
All told, the potential cost to the government of the latest bailout package comes to $2.25 trillion, triple the size of the original $700 billion rescue package, which centered on buying distressed assets from banks. The latest show of government firepower is an abrupt about-face for Mr. Paulson, who just days earlier was discouraging the idea of capital injections for banks.
Fed Fires Bazookas
Also note the Fed slashed interest rates to zero, started an alphabet soup of lending facilities, suspended mark-to-market accounting (still suspended), started paying interest on all reserves, and launched QE to heights no one would have believed if I predicted them at the time.
Trump’s Bazookas
- Reciprocal tariffs of up to 140 percent
- Breaking USMCA
- Mass deportation threats on and off
- Repeat “Two Week Warnings”
None of the above threats had the intended effect.
Trump announced 200 deals “guaranteed” and delivered one. Threatening nations with tariffs to the negotiating table failed miserably, even after the bazookas were fired. Trump did not get deals he liked even after upping tariffs.
Then Trump was forced to dramatically cut back tariffs when China withheld rare earth elements.
On April 17, Trump said he would know if Putin is tapping us along?
Well, Mr. president, what have you found out in the last two months?
Trump Will Decide Whether to Bomb Iran Within Two Weeks
Yesterday, I commented Trump Will Decide Whether to Bomb Iran Within Two Weeks
In saying he’ll make a decision on Iran within two weeks, President Trump has reached for an old standby.
Two weeks and he’ll know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end the war in Ukraine. Two weeks until the next move on trade. Two weeks until a health care overhaul is released. And two weeks for an infrastructure plan.
“When the next decision isn’t obvious, sometimes he just buys himself more time,” said GOP strategist Alex Conant, who worked in the George W. Bush White House. “Two weeks is forever in politics. The truth is, a lot of problems just work themselves out if you give them time.”
That appears to be Trump’s current calculation. He is trying to buy more time in hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran – or a total surrender. Putting off a decision also keeps the onus on Israel to continue the fight, and spares Trump the difficult choice of whether to commit the U.S. militarily. Trump campaigned on getting the U.S. out of wars, not joining them, and his political base is in a fierce debate over Iran.
The bazooka this time is a bunker-buster bomb.
CNN reports Israel has pushed the US to use its ‘bunker buster’ bomb on Iran. Here’s what the weapon can do
As President Donald Trump is warming to the idea of using US military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, officials and experts have suggested the US’ 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bomb is the only weapon capable of destroying the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, a facility thought to be key to Tehran’s nuclear program, which is carved into a mountain and extends deep underground.
The GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which has yet to be used operationally, is designed for “reaching and destroying our adversaries’ weapons of mass destruction located in well-protected facilities,” according to a fact sheet from the US Air Force.
The weapon is a 30,000-pound bomb with 6,000 pounds of “high explosives,” said Masao Dahlgren, a fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project.
What to Know About the Fighting Between Israel and Iran
The New York Times comments What to Know About the Fighting Between Israel and Iran
A day of talks involving representatives of Iran and Europe in Geneva on Friday broke up with no signs of a breakthrough, a week into the latest escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Civilians have borne the brunt of the attacks, as Israeli missiles hit some apartment buildings and residential complexes. Residents who spoke to The New York Times said they had not experienced attacks like this in a generation, with some recalling the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s.
Some Iranians are steeling themselves for a long conflict and weighing how to find relative safety. Long lines of cars have packed highways heading out of Tehran, though many residents say they have no place to go.
U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.
The U.S. military has concluded that one bomb would not destroy the Fordo facility on its own; an attack would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole.
Trump is hoping the threat of using a bunker buster bomb will mean he won’t have to use it.
So far, no luck.
Recall Trump’s claim Russia would not have invaded Ukraine on his watch. Then Trump pulled out bazookas threatening sanctions on Russia. What happened to those threats?
Trump made similar claims regarding Iran and Israel. Supposedly it would never happen on his watch. That bazooka threat vanished too.
Since it will take more than one bomb to hit the site, perhaps Iran wants to make Trump use a bomb before it negotiates.
But who knows where the latest high-level games of chicken take us.
Related Posts
April 13, 2025: China Halts Rare Earth Exports Desperately Needed by the US
I have been warning about this for years. It’s now happening.
June 5, 2025: Two-TACO Trump Day on His Call to Xi Over Rare Earth Elements
Trump is hyping up his call with China’s Xi. But chalk up 2 more TACOs.
June 5, 2025: Trump Gives Negotiators the Green Light to Lift US Export Controls
There is no precedent for negotiation over security-imposed export controls.
June 12, 2025: China Keeps Leverage on the US with a 6-Month Limit on Rare Earth Exports
Trump’s crowing over a new deal is more hype than reality in 3 ways.
When other nations pull out their own bazookas, Trump backs down.
Iran wants the bomb for the same reason North Korea wanted the bomb. Some might argue justifiably so.
Regardless, the problem for Iran is that in the absence of a bomb, it has no bazooka to pull out.
I went on a road trip to Mexico late seventies, and got so fed up with people warning us about banditos that I told everyone I had a roof-mounting bazooka. It worked. I didn’t have a single encounter with banditos the entire four months.
Trump says Iran will not be allowed to have a nuke. But North Korea gets a pass. What’s the difference? Israel.
North Korea will soon have an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S.
Russia and China have its proxy (NK), which is very useful to them. We have Israel, a huge liability to us.
We can no longer afford to get involved in every fight. We are getting weaker and weaker, along with Israel. The trend is not our friend.
WSJ has a hilarious (to me) article/video: Trump’s “two weeks” prop. It has been pulled out and used, and come to no solutions, on trade/tariffs, Putin and Ukraine, …. His schtick is remarkably limited, if tracked systematically. In this case though, we are pivoting on world history, and it is improv night.
Forgot 90 more days for tik tok.
He wants to put things not successful off so people will forget. Keeps current s$$t going so know one has time to look back. I worked for a guy like him one time. Never good to be around those kind of people. You will be the fall guy or worse. Think about it. How many people have moved on from trump to better things.
It’s been over 70 years since “Operation Ajax”. What a web we have woven in the Middle East.
The British split the land along non cultural( on purpose or ignorance) lines the left leaving a power vacuum.
Our foreign office and intelligensia f*ck up every thing the touch, Israel, Kuwait, India, Africa, the list is endless.
It pays right now to consider all scenarios. Here are some worst-case visions:
” … If Iran falls, the region doesn’t get freer—it gets bloodier. The Islamic Republic is brutal, yes—but it’s also a geopolitical keystone. Remove it, and the arch collapses. The aftermath wouldn’t be democratic reform or some Instagram-filtered “Persian Spring.”
It would be tribal fragmentation, religious warfare, and the violent settling of decades-old scores. … Israel would face attacks on multiple fronts. ISIS remnants would resurface in the chaos, feeding off the vacuum like parasites in open wounds.
Iraq would fracture again. …
Russia and China, already circling, would seize the chance to claim strategic energy corridors and military influence. Western embassies would go dark. Diplomacy would give way to drone strikes.
And Europe? It would face a second refugee crisis, exponentially worse than 2015. Millions of displaced Iranians, Afghans, Iraqis, and Syrians, fleeing instability, starvation, or sectarian cleansing, would flood the Mediterranean and Balkans. …”
https://asiatimes.com/2025/06/tucker-carlsons-a-trump-coddling-coward/
asia times is the best source for world wide analysis of geopolitics, imho.
besides the old testament and the koran. funny that the Palestinians are semites, isn’t it?
hmm, GBU developed after 2002, in wide conversation since then, mostly talking about Iran as a target
So, what makes anyone, anyone at all, think that if Iran has a nuke program, Iran has not taken the steps to mitigate the capabilities of the bomb.
Penetrate “up to” 200 feet? YMMV
Look up the SURF facility, with labs and gigantic labs in caverns built more than 5000 feet under the ground
The Cheyenne Mountain Complex has 2000 feet of granite over it.
You might note that IT IS possible to dig out facilities more than 200 feet down.
But, shhhh, don’t tell Iran
Is the Trump assessment of certain “hands-off” (no troops on the ground) one easy trick bombing campaign success based on the “hope” that Iran never reads and cannot dig below 200 feet?
Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Gee, no hints here
Iran nuclear sites may be beyond reach of “bunker busters”By Reuters
January 12, 2012 7:32 AM CST Updated January 12, 2012
There are too many ifs. Iran can rebuild quickly, the bomb may not do the job etc. Ground troops are essential if a deal isn’t made. My guess is the plan is for the US to drop the bomb and then US troops will be used to secure the sites. Politicians who say no to Isarel don’t last. If Trump doesn’t follow Israeli orders he will probably suffer greatly and maybe removed from office.
200 Russian scientists in Iran nuke programs. Tramp better turn TACO within the next 2 weeks.
Can you say Jihad? Europe is full of Muslims. There are a lot of unintended consequences in this loaded gun.
bingo. lived in most muslim hood in brooklyn 30 years ago. exponentially bigger now. 99.99% are fine. but the unintended consequences of pax dumbfuckistan bombing the world, did end up in the blowback, on 9.11.01. the twin towers played jenga.
No so much Israel but the money flowing into us politics. He and benny both have reasons to stay in power. A good old world war would do it for trump. .
I’m finding lots of insight on Trump’s thinking and bargaining (balanced, showing angles I hadn’t deeply considered on all sides) in Jim Sciutto’s 2020 book, The Madman Theory: Trump Takes on the World. Would recommend it to anyone.
Jury still out, but the “bazooka” might seem to have blunted or been indefinitely sheathed to some extent (another metaphor: goal posts moved) in Ukraine/Russia, North Korea, trade/tariffs, tiktok deal, possibly immigration control, ….
But playing close to the edge might someday actually encounter a big, bad one where reversal and waffling are not available. My model of Iran however is a slow crumbling mess with all sorts of currently unforeseen consequences (hello Iraq, Afghanistan, George W. Bush’s world which became ours, very expensively). better than the (claimed) alternative? Not sure.
Could Iran have friends with a bazooka? Who, what and how would they use it?
It appears not. [lol]
Israel 70 years old artificial construct. USA 250 years old artificial construct. Iran, 3,000 years old non artificial. Who’ll persevere?? The answer is obvious.
Surely you don’t think the people in Iran today are the same that were there 3000 years ago. The Muslim religion itself has only been around since the 700s AD.
If Iran manages to turn this into a prolonged war, the US is going to lose. Note that since WW2, the US hasn’t won a single armed conflict that lasted more than a year (see Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan). And Iran seems to be well equipped to turn this into a prolonged war.
No need to invade. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were not existential like Hitler and Germany was so no need to go all out. Iran is not existential for us either however it is for Israel. By helping Israel nullify their immediate existential threat we eliminate a potential future existential threat to us. Ukraine is similar.
what a bunch of hyperbole and bullshit. existential threat to usa? even the nazis and italy and japan were NOT that. persia was our puppet for 25 years, just like israel is now. my lord where the hell did you learn about history and life, fox news or some acid trip you took? thanks for the entertainment. never change.
Did you get the beeper I sent you?
Terrorism in response to hurt feelings? Just trumphumper things…
You are just unhappy that your preferred friends and allies are getting creamed and I find it very amusing that you of all people are trying to use the morality play when you and them are devoid of any at all. I am happy to see this happening and most people are.
Interesting strategy… get called out for being a garbage person, declare all other persons to be garbage, then sit in garbage solidarity with your new imaginary garbage friends.
I guess if it works for you, it don’t matter what everyone else thinks of you.
so brave, why not go whack off some more to Benny Net. btw he went to HS and college in the good ole USA. how many per day do you spank your monkey into the israeli flag?
Come on bmcc. You are just a paid troll. Can’t get more loser than that.
You’re just envious you aren’t getting paid.
you don’t want to threaten me. i’m sicilian. we have long memories and long tentacles. i’ll wait 10 or 20 years and get more than even. now take it back, like a nice little pussy would.
Agree. I’d prefer if Mish stuck to economic-related posts. That said, this blog post has a lot of good historical geopolitical information and perspective for people to consider.
https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/why-iran-the-context-and-the-consequences
Banks were gonna lose money loaned to the Britain if i recall
If the US would mind it’s own business, stay at home and be a good neighbor we might eliminate potential future treats to us. Much easier and cheaper than having 800 military bases all over the world causing discontent and hatred.
Would be nice if everyone else did the same but they don’t, do they?
What other countries have bases on American soil? Do we even allow their navies to refuel at our ports? We may allow some allies in our ports for R&R.
Let’s get you outfitted with an infantry load out so you can head over to Iran and fight since you’re so committed. You and your progeny. I’m sure there are people on here that’s be willing to crowdfund the expenditures via GoFundMe since we all know you’re as totally committed to putting yourself and your kids’ lives on the line for this cause as you are for putting other people’s lives on the line.
Armchair warrior.
Time to eviscerate the jewish lobby in the US before America gets dragged into another war, the one Tramp promised he would not get involved in. Just tell Bibi no!
Trump is controlled by the Israeli lobby. I predict US ground troops fighting for Israel. How much will this war cost.
The goal is regime change and seeing how Mossad has been able to penetrate thoroughly Iran’s defenses I would expect that its political class has equally been penetrated to the same extent if not more so regime change can occur when the moment is ripe. Wars between nation-states always end at the negotiating table.
As to whether big bombs can take out the bunkers where the nuclear material is located, no one here can answer that question because we are not privy to what the bomb can actually do and not to the methods used to obtain that objective.
The 3 stated goals of Bibi and Trump(of many and changing daily):
1: No nuclear enrichment
2. Regime change
3. Unconditional surrender
Perhaps #1 can occur with negotiation. Very unlikely conventional bombing. The bunker buster bombs bazooka only work if the underground structures are well understood. My understanding is the nuclear material and quite possibly centrifuges are dispersed across a large area of Iran in bunkers, an area close to the size of mainland Europe.
2. Regime change isn’t happening via air with conventional weapons. I seriously doubt the reports of the Iranian airspace being controlled by Israel are accurate. Especially in light over how badly Israel has been damaged by the Iranian missile strikes while claiming to the contrary. All the latest reports from Iran discussing Israeli strike damage mention rockets or drones. Trump will have a revolution on his hands in the U.S. if he tries to do a massive ground invasion, the only way this is happening .
3. Unconditional surrender is a joke. The Iranians will fight to the last man before they unconditionally surrender.
Especially Bibi and somewhat Trump have really set themselves up. They might be able to salvage a win by using the tactical nukes bazooka but we would become a pariah nation that is if we avoided WW3 nuclear annihilation.
I’ve noticed Trump seems more interested in negotiating of late but Trump is very hard to read.
With the Houthis, he just declared a loss a win and moved on. Maybe he’ll do the same here. “We have successfully forced Iran to limit enrichment to 60% and promise not to build a bomb” (status quo ante).
The whole strategy of Israel is to pull in the United States. No bunker buster bomb is needed to close these sites. Just like the Marines in the Pacific in WW II with Japanese in caves, fire a few smart missiles (that can strike individual apartments) at the entrance tunnel and seal it shut. If excavators and bulldozers arrive, hit X Marks the Spot again. No more food trucks, maybe even no access to water and air. Israel can do it themselves, but want America into the war for them.
Trump has a knack to break his good promises and to keep his bad ones.
TACO boy only wants the limelight. he cares not a bit about what the topic is. mug shots to bunker busters or name calling………….ala low energy jeb
That’s his mental illness at work.
If trump stays alive and congress remains his puppet the US will probably deteriorate into revolution and civil war or become a totalitarian state. The average American has a better life than the average citizen of almost every other country worldwide, 70M of these stupid fucks are willing to throw that away for bullshit propaganda on fox news and other right wind media.
Hank Paulson bazooka has turned into a boomerang, destabilizing not only the financial system, but causing social havoc from which we are still recovering.
Just saying.
In his first term, Trump dropped a MOAB on the Taliban. They didn’t care and continued fighting. The Taliban couldn’t eve produce a machine gun or bullet.
The Ayatollah is NOT going to back down. His legacy is at stake, and he knows that so long as he doesn’t make a move on the SoH, then it’s not likely that Israel will take him out. He’s just trying to hang on and make it through the destruction of his nuclear weapons program.
Trump will bomb Fordow. Likewise, he has a legacy to consider as well. He believes that he knows when to walk away. He also wants to prove to the world that the US has the ability to use its military might without getting involved in a full-blown war.
I would expect the US will bomb as much of the IRGC naval capacity that could be used to move on the SoH as soon as the bombs start dropping on Fordow.
I doubt that Iran will do much in the SoH for multiple reasons:
– the SoH is a very large area; the shallow parts are near Iran; the deeper parts where ships travel are near Oman; so Iran would have to travel far into their neighbour’s territory to impact shipping
– any interruption of shipping in the SoH would impact Iran’s crucial food imports
-Iran exports most of its crude to Asia and China; important customers who provide crucial funding for Iran’s govt.; they don’t want to risk upsetting their best customers
– Iran does not want to trigger the US to join the fight by attacking US forces
Our attacking & eliminating Fordow is a very big deal. The only thing that would be worse would be killing the Ayatollah.
I didn’t say Iran would. Again, I’m saying the US will attempt to obliterate the Iranian capacity to move one the SoH as the bombs are falling on Fordow.
In a perfect world, Fordow & Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping through the SoH are eliminated at the same time. Granted, taking out the naval assets will take more time than dropping a modest number of MOPs on Fordow.
I think what Trump fears is that if our big bombs don’t do the job, then our military will lose a lot of cred. We could join the military paper tiger brigade of Russia and Iran.
Haven’t we already done that in Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq? These ground wars come down to one simple equation, more of them are willing to die than we are willing to kill. They are preserving their homeland we are doing WTF, we don’t know why.
Look, warfare is what humans do. We have been fighting each other since the beginning of history.
Do you understand how much employment and Congressional bribes the MIC is responsible for?
This will continue until an AI takes over.
AI won’t need a human friendly, livable environment, destroy the environment eliminate humans, problem solved.
Wow, just absolutely profound. How did you get inside of Trump’s head like that?
In 2004 Hans Blix stated that “there were about 700 inspections, and in no case did we find weapons of mass destruction.”
But Bush said that Iraq had WMD and they were imminently about to use them.
This is a replay of that same game. A member of Trump’s cabinet, Tulsi Gabbard, seems to contradict the allegations. She may be out a job soon.
Israel has added to their demands, including that Iran must be disarmed of all ballistic missiles and delivery systems (!)
Isn’t it strange that the only time Iran has used ballistic missiles in recent history has been against Israel, and only after Israel attacked Iran first?
The real goal is to turn Iran into another Libya, where it will no longer be a threat to the US dollar and US control of oil.
I still stand by my prediction the US will bomb Iran before the weekend is out. The Senate address on Tuesday is likely to come after the fact.
I hope you’re right. Too much delay is not good.
Maybe you’re correct taking time to consider weather you want to become involved in another nearly endless war for no good reason should be rushed into. No sense in considering what the outcome might be.
israel is an amerikan pawn. a strategic pawn, near all “our” oil interests. my dad worked for the shah as a wall street man in the 50s until his overthrow. many of my pal’s fathers’ worked for either the saudi kingdom or persia. owners of big construction companies and oil C suite or wall street big boys. you couldn’t do both. those lunatics the shia the sunni and the jews, basically tribal rivalries, are like the hatfield and mccoys. kooky cousins who have hated each other for centuries…..
Who is whose pawn?
Iran may not have a bazooka but it does have lots of missiles capable of penetrating what’s left of Israel’s air defense. The “Iron Dome” will last only so long until Israel is completely vulnerable to further missile attacks.
I see this as the worst-case scenario for Israel: the U.S. opts to stay out of the war, the conflict becomes a drawn-out war of attrition, and Israel’s air defense is exhausted.
Israel seeks regime change in Iran, but the regime that might topple first is the Netanyahu government.
Pray for Iran.
I don’t know about a bazooka but the big beautiful bill is looking really ugly right now. ICE is running out of money, they have spent $8 billion for 200,000 round ups. They’ll need $500 billion to finish the job at that rate. And don’t forget a trillion or two for the Iran war. I read oil could hit $200 if those bombs drop.
https://stitchsnitches.com/trumps-one-big-beautiful-bill-just-collapsed-as-parliamentarian-blocks-it-and-gop-civil-war-erupts/
It’s dejavu all over again. Got exit strategy?
If the 2017 tax cuts expire, will alimony become tax deductible again? Asking for a friend.
Trump plans to let Israel do all the dirty work making things safe for him to come in and take the credit. lol
If Trump doesn’t do the deed then he will be viewed as having been out-crazed by Iran’s Ayatollah!
Trump has said that Iran will not be allowed to get a nuke. Israel has softened Iran up, so now it is time finish the work with a swift bomb in the cojones.
👆🏻 Langley troll.
Now THAT is an accurate bomb!!
They can never “finish the work”. They can only delay Iran’s obtaining nukes while strengthening their resolve.
While Israel continues to attack Iran, which in turn retaliated again by launching a “fresh barrage of missiles” toward Israel today, the unfit president announced he needs another two weeks to ponder how to handle the urgent middle-east crisis. He then whipped out his dusty distraction card and yet again griped about his baseless election fraud woes on Truth Social.
Like he’s already forgotten about Iran.
I thought that was a Mae West / W.C. Fields line.
Is that gun in your pocket or are you happy to see me?
pickle in your pocket. i walk by mae west’s HS and the NY FED on weekly basis in my flaneuring about gotham. i always chuckle at both.