The Independent says After Salzburg, Theresa May’s Brexit Plans are in Shreds, and that a Norway or Canada Model is her only option.
> Theresa May looked shocked but should not really have been surprised by her humiliation at the EU’s summit in Salzburg. She was expecting warm words about her Chequers blueprint on future UK-EU relations, to give her political cover at home. British officials had naively talked up the prospects of going over the head of Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s chief negotiator, by appealing to the 27 EU nations’ leaders, and exploiting divisions among them.
> She could have lived with the EU’s original language on Wednesday night, that the Chequers plan would have to be “reworked”. But after she addressed her counterparts, they hardened it to a declaration that Chequers “will not work”. Britain’s hope that Germany’s Angela Merkel, worried about a no-deal exit, would inject more flexibility, proved another false dawn. Emmanuel Macron’s tough approach prevailed. “France won,” said one Brussels insider.
Five Problems
- The problem with the Canada plan is that it dumps Northern Ireland.
- The problem with the Norway plan is very few want such a customs union and it also requires freedom of movement which the UK will not allow.
- The EU offers no solution and demands absurd breakup fees.
- May insists on Chequers.
- May’s opposition is circling, both left and right.
Despite the fact that the EU humiliated May, No 10 Says Cabinet ‘Fully Behind’ PM’s Plan.
> May told ministers hers was the “only plan on the table” that secured the “frictionless trade” needed to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
> Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson said proposals put forward by the Institute for Economic Affairs on Monday showed there was an alternative to ending up as a vassal state with “colony status” through the Chequers route.
> The IEA, a free market think-tank, said Mrs May should change tack and pursue an advanced free trade agreement with the EU, with full reciprocal market access, no tariffs in goods including agriculture and maximum recognition of regulatory standards.
Fog is Lifting
It may not seem like it, but Eurointelligence says the fog is beginning to lift.
> There is a sense of satisfaction of sorts when a hugely confusing political situation begins to clear up. The morning fog over the English Channel has not lifted yet, but is beginning to.
> Salzburg could go down in history as one of the most disastrous EU summits ever, if it turns out to be the one which pushed Theresa May over the brink. May is now coming under domestic pressure to move towards the Canada option, which as we have pointed out before is not compatible either with the EU’s red line on Northern Ireland or with the British red line of avoiding a customs border inside the UK.
> According to a FAZ report this morning, Salzburg constituted a massive miscalculation on Donald Tusk’s part. There was genuine surprise in some quarters in Brussels about the fierceness of the UK reaction to the summit.
> The single biggest diplomatic error during the summit in our view was Tusk’s wantonly aggressive Instagram posting, showing Theresa May at a cake trolley with a comment that there were no cherries to be picked. This was picked up by the Tories as an insult to the prime minister and the UK at large.
> By being seen to reject the Chequers plan outright, the EU has now manoeuvred itself into a position where it is under pressure to come up with its own Brexit proposal – for which we think it is far too late.
> Over the weekend, one of the newspapers carried a story that Number 10 was making preparations for a snap election if the House of Commons were to reject a withdrawal deal. We think that the more likely option today is for the talks to go well into the New Year with the UK confronting the EU with a take-it-or-leave-it option.
> The Telegraph reports in its coverage this morning that the Tories are preparing to align themselves behind a proposal to be published today by the Institute of Economic Affairs, a conservative think tank. The proposal is backed both by David Davis and Boris Johnson. It will argue that May should end the discussions, which she effectively already has, and accelerate trade talks with the rest of the world.
> Could the House of Commons still force a Norway option? In our view this is unlikely. There is no majority for Norway in the Tory party. The Telegraph calculates that, in the cabinet, a dozen members favour Canada and half a dozen favour Norway. That probably reflects the majority position in the party. Since neither the Tories nor Labour are committed to Norway, we see no chance for this.
> Our conclusion is therefore that the probability of a no-deal Brexit has risen strongly over the last five days.
Take it or Leave It
What’s not clear is whether or not the EU believes May is serious.
If the EU does believe May is serious, then they are prepared for no deal.
More likely is that the EU will come back with some tweaks at the last minute that May might not be able to accept.
Clear as Mud
None of this seems particularly clear.
May is walking a fine line. In a BBC interview, May denied being humiliated. How realistic is that?
Nonetheless, since Chequers is her only option, she has to pretend as if that option is still on the table. Attacking the EU or Tusk will not achieve that end.
Will May Even Be Around?
On September 15, I noted a Labour claim that UK Prime Minister Theresa May Will Be Gone Before Christmas.
Today we learn preparations for snap elections are underway.
If May goes, the EU will not hang around for another Brexit vote.
So, yes, some fog has lifted, but it appears to have been replaced with more fog.
Best Possible Result
The best possible result for the UK is that everyone digs in and a hard Brexit takes place.
The UK could then take control of fishing rights, halt billions in absurd payments to the EU slush fund, and negotiate treaties with other countries as it see fit.
The world will see that life will be better after Brexit. And that is precisely what the EU fears.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“The world will see that life will be better after Brexit. And that is precisely what the EU fears.”
Yup! Imagine the countries that would make a beeline to the exit should Brexit end well.
If EU gave UK an easy Brexit then 2-4 countries would want that deal too quickly and also leave EU so EU, EU-Commission, all EU bureaucrats, Merkel, Macron and Druncker-Juncker and Cherry-Tusk are all motivated to make Brexit as difficult as possible to try to either STOP Brexit by hoodwinking Brits to voting again in a 2nd referendum (massive Project Fear again with remainers most likely winning)
OR
May foolishly calling new election in UK to try to get a majority without DUP (which would lead to Tories losing the majority even when supported by Northern Ireland party DUP creating a total stalemate in UK parliament with most likely Labour government that wants Brexit in name only that would keep UK chained to EU’s leash forever aka the May/Olly Robbins Chequers plan but with even more control given to EU)
OR
making UK accept even worse Brexit plan than what May and Olly Robbins whiteflagged to EU in Chequers plan making UK become chained to EU totally
OR
so painful NO deal Brexit that it destroys UK economy for years.
The problem is that May is INCOMPETENT and she is surrounded by INCOMPETENT career bureaucrats (How can May allow an ex-communist never-worked-a-proper-job career bureaucrat write May’s Brexit plan?) so they do NOT even realize that EU and all EU bureaucrats are motivated to make things as difficult as possible.
May should be voted out internally by Tory party and the next UK prime minister from Tory party should tell EU there will be NO deal and Merkel and Macron can explain to German and French voters that they will need to pay the 50 billion Euros EU demands from UK and that May foolishly promised as opening offer.
Also UK needs to make it clear that trade will be at WTO rules and that German manufacturers and French farmers will be the biggest losers since EU exports much more stuff to UK than UK exports to EU.
UK service companies can run their EU operations through daughter companies in some EU country.
They should make their EU base Ireland provided that Ireland plays nice in regards to Ireland and Northern Ireland border and there is NO permanent controls on it and both sides agree to large Customs free allowance (say 500 pounds and 500 euros) to people crossing it and there is smart Customs arrangement between that so large companies can have customs officials on site so there is no delay at ports and middle-sized companies can run their customs process inside the city where they are located through dedicated local customs officials after there is self-reporting beforehand of everything coming and some spot checks at the border for trucks so compliance stays high. Small companies can have the couriers and haulers run their customs process together with other shipments they are bringing either at couriers and haulers depots inside UK and there can be some customs also at the border for small shipments but most can be done smartly through technology and with little red tape.
There will be some customs evasion but so what it will still be much cheaper than agreeing to being in an EU leash forever with May’s INCOMPETENT Brexit in name only plan.
German industry and French farmers will yell at Merkel and Macron until they are red in the face to get things moving with as little hassle as possible and if Macron intends to make things dificult for UK at Calais port then he can expect to get manure thrown in front of him everywhere he goes if he makes French farmers massive exports to UK difficult.
May is stupid not to realize that Merkel and Macron are in a box and they will be savaged by french and german voters unless exports to UK continue working without a hassle.
NO deal Brexit with WTO rules and making Ireland the base for UK service companies running services to EU markets in exchange for no hassle with Ireland- Northern Ireland border and UK will be thriving in a few years and the most competitive and successful economy in Europe.
Ireland is outside of Schengen like UK so there is no danger of hordes of migrants coming through the open Ireland and Northern Ireland border and since France and Spain are dependent on UK tourists there wil be no hassle for tourists and since France and Spain and many Eastern European countries are also dependent on UK expats buying property and spending part of the year or whole years in them there will be no hassle for expats either.
When it comes to giving welfare to EU citizens UK should STOP this completely after Brexit and just tell EU that it is OK if no EU country gives welfare to UK citizens.
Those EU citizens working and contributing to UK economy can stay but NO new EU immigrants will be allowed to UK unless deemed to be needed by UK itself like nurses for example.
UK will concentrate on employing UK citizens, many of whom are unemployed and some with multi-generational joblessness and UK citizens currently in low paid jobs whose wages have been pushed down by massive EU immigration of millions from eastern Europe will see their wages start to rise.
UK would be wise to also STOP all commonwealth immigration of uneducated people or people coming to low wage jobs and this includes Pakistanis and Indians and family re-unification to UK for those coming to use UK welfare needs to be stopped.
Highly educated Pakistanis and Indians coming to jobs with good wages should be allowed to continue but the Labour/Blair started mass immigration from Pakistan and India to “rub Tories nose in it” needs to be stopped.
Back in the days of Oliver Cromwell, the English would have solved their Irish problem with a straightforward invasion and colonization. But these days, a disproportionate number of fighting-age English males are of the Muslim persuasion — which would make a military solution rather problematic.
To be serious for a moment, ML1 — you clearly want the UK to separate from the EU and be self-governing again; at the same time, you appear to have very little confidence in the UK governing class. Is there some cognitive dissonance there?
I have even less confidence in EU governing class.
Druncker is clueless.
Merkel is totally INCOMPETENT.
etc.
The separatists should remember Professor Handy’s Sigmoid Curve. Let’s stipulate that separation from the EU will be good in the long run for the UK. Even so, per the Sigmoid Curve, in the short run there will be pain from leaving the EU. And the nearly half of Brits who voted against separation are going to scream bloody murder when the pain bites.
How much short-term pain there will be may be controlled to some extent by how smart the London Political Class can act. But based how they have behaved in the last few years, realistic expectations have to be low. That means the outcome of separation is going to be very hard to predict.
Maybe the Brits really should go for the Canada option — see if Canada would accept them as a Canadian province on the wrong side of the Atlantic?
As a further example of the TOTAL INCOMPETENCE of all Tory policy wonks advising May there is now rumours of May declaring ANOTHER snap election to strenghten her hand.
If May calls another snap election the most likely outcome is that the Tory majority (which May originally had and squandered in previous snap elections with incompetent election program) will not be achieved but most likely Tories will lose more seats and will NOT have majority even with DUP.
May is damaged goods politically and her advisors have been incompetent and for some reason May keeps getting new incompetent advisors like communist Olly Robbins so May is really bad at reading people and really really bad at seeing which policies are good ones.
May needs to go with internal Tory change of leadership and Brexit needs to happen by the current UK parliament with WTO rules unless EU wakes up.
If Macron and Merkel manage to destroy one of their biggest export markets in UK with some idiotic desire to punish UK or make an example of UK then most likely Macron and Merkel will be eaten alive by German industry and French farmers.
If French farm products do not reach UK markets quickly and without hassle then Macron will see lots of manure everywhere he goes in France.
If German manufactured goods do not reach UK markets without hassle Merkel will have some German factory owners complaining to her every day.
UK has all the aces but May playes like she doesn’t even know what an ace looks like.
There is much more exports from EU to UK than exports from UK to EU.
Up until now the UK has mainly worked the political angle (divide and conquor) and iterated ideological nostrums, but has refused to get down to business and negotiate on the nitty gritty terms of divorce and patriculars of the future relationship. The UK does not hold all the aces, and the outsize financial industry will be severely impacted. Brexit won mainly because of displeasure with migrant policies, but that displeasure is present in the rest of the EU too, and the EU tanker is slowly being turned on this point by increasing populist agitation. A hard Brexit will be disadvantageous to all, but it is whistling past the graveyard to think that Britain’s unbalanced economy will chug along famously or even perk up.
May has HERSELF made the situation with Northern Ireland difficult because she thinks only customs border on Irish Sea that leaves Northern Ireland inside EU customs union would be the alternative to keeping UK shackled to EU.
This belief is due to policy innovativity of a garden gnome from May and her communist advisor Olly Robbins because they have NO creativity in solving the Northern Ireland peace agreement requirement of NO hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland
There is a very simple solution:
Get out of EU.
Have a flexible customs system where large factories and companies have customs officials on site doing customs so no delays at the border.
Have middle sized companies visit customs officials in their cities after self-reporting online so no delays at the border.
Have small companies self-reporting and either visit some points on the border or in their home cities.
Have some spot checks in the border to ensure compliance.
Have ordinary people and small businesses have a 500 pounds or 500 euros customs free allowance so no need to declare and no need to pay anything.
This will leave 95% of crossers crossing the border with no delay.
Ireland is also outside of Schengen like UK so there is no danger of criminals or asylum seeking opportunists coming through the Ireland- Northern Ireland border.
If some polish plumber uses EU free movement to go to Ireland and then sneaks to Northern Ireland after UK has stopped free movement of people from EU this is not a big issue.
Also if there are some customs evasion at the border that is NOT a big issue.
May and Olly Robbins have made problems worse than they are in their heads and then gave as only solution shackling UK to EU forever…
Who is surprised that May’s “let’s wave a white flag to EU and agree to be shackled to EU directives and EU rules FOREVER and hope they smile at us nicely like good little poodles we are” plan did NOT work?
May has horrible advisors.
May’s Chequers Brexit plan which would have kept UK shackled to EU was written by former communist Olly Robbins.
Previously May had a Tory majority but was advised by her advisors to call early elections to increase the Tory majority.
Then those same IDIOT advisors gave May an election plan that included cuts in pensions and cuts in benefits.
Then all idiot advisors were surprised when May LOST the Tory majority and became a hostage to small Northern Ireland party called DUP.
Now Olly Robbins the communist May advisor wrote a stupid plan that would keep UK shackled to EU and expected the EU to be happy for this and the plan’s stupidness was directly coming from the need to keep Ireland and Northern Ireland border open to please DUP and due to the fact that Olly Robbins has the innovativity of a garden gnome when it comes to policy he only thought the border could be kept open by keeping UK shackled to EU.
Macron and Merkel and Druncker and Donald “cherry” Tusk made a favor to UK by rejecting May’s incompetent plan.
Hopefully there will be a hard Brexit and trade will be on WTO rules and UK let’s German and French taxpayers pay the extra 50 billion Euros to EU bureaucracy that EU wants.
UK will collect much more tariffs than UK companies will pay out.
German manufacturers and French farmers will eat Merkel and Macron alive unless exports to UK work smoothly since they export so much so EU would have to be IDIOT to do anything to make trade with UK difficult so all the scaremongering about some UK factories not getting parts and holdups at customs are silly.
May needs to go unless she fires her communist advisor and starts planning for a NO DEAL Brexit.