Before you answer, we need to define the word “faith” and the word “reduce”?
For those not paying attention, DOGE stands for Department of Government Efficiency. It’s a team led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
The DOGE mission is come up with ways to reduce significant amounts of government spending.
Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your viewpoint), DOGE cannot do anything but make recommendations.
Shhhhhh, It’s a Secret
Team DOGE has come up with a 60 page list of items that it has yet officially published.
Why the secret?
I doubt there is much of anything in the report that’s genuinely new. For example, the big item that has been disclosed is eliminating the Department of Education.
Great, and I am all for that, but Ron Paul proposed that over a decade ago.
How Do We Define Faith and Success?
I have faith that DOGE can come up with a list of deficit reduction ideas simply by taking reasonable actions proposed long ago. O.K. I think DOGE will find some new stuff too.
But faith in coming up with ideas is quite different than actually reducing the deficit.
For this exercise “faith” means “delivery” of a package of ideas that Congress approves, Trump signs, and actually reduces the deficit.
I will grant DOGE full credit even for existing ideas such as eliminating the Department of Education, provided it gets done.
However, the true measure of success is the overall budget.
Trump can easily destroy the entire DOGE effort with handouts he has proposed such as no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime, and restoration of the State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction.
In essence, there are two measures of success: Actual DOGE ideas implemented and how fast Trump ruins(or doesn’t) them elsewhere.
Slash Taxes to Zero?!
Here’s an Interesting Tweet by Peter St Onge on Slashing Income Taxes to Zero by upping tariffs, cutting military spending, and unleashing DOGE.
Donald Trump wants to abolish the entire income tax. It would be the greatest achievement since Andrew Jackson abolished the central bank.
So what happens to the economy, to Americans’ finances, and to the federal government?
Please click on the above link and play Onge’s 4-minute video.
I like Peter and I even agree with some of what he says, but his proposed scheme quickly falls apart under even a tiny bit of scrutiny.
Upping tariffs on China to 60 percent would likely kill all trade with China. Tariffs collected = zero.
Then what happens if China responds by cutting off the global supply of rare earth elements used in military equipment, EVs, nuclear weapons, microchips, and cell phones?
Similarly, what happens if Mexico cuts off medical supplies used in most US medical operations?
Onge’s first problem is he assumes all of the alleged benefits but none of the negative consequences including huge inflation when the US needs to produce everything internally.
The second problem is USMCA is a signed treaty. Trump might not give a damn about that, but 25 percent Tariffs on Canada and Mexico would not stand up to a court challenge, and it would also set a precedent of total global distrust in deals with Trump. Why would any country trust any deal Trump offers?
Third, in contrast to China, Mexico and Canada can easily respond one-for one on most tariffs. And they would.
Fourth, I totally agree with Onge on reducing defense spending. But Trump is not exactly listening to either me or Onge. Trump wants to increase military spending.
Fifth, Onge has too much faith in DOGE. Yep it might be able to come up with a trillion dollars in waste. Call it two trillion if you like. But how do you seriously propose getting that through Congress?
Republicans can lose no more than three votes in the Senate. And initially Republicans might not be able to afford more than one lost vote in the House.
Heck, I have serious doubts DOGE can even do something simple like kill EV tax credits.
If Trump delivers on the expiring tax cut package, plus no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime, and restoration of the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction, the deficit will skyrocket no matter what the hell DOGE delivers.
Related Posts
On November 30, I noted A Tiny Republican Majority in the House Will Make Legislation Difficult
How many balanced budget hypocrites do you expect to see when Trump proposes big budget deficit increases?
Here’s the deal. If there are many as two defections, Republicans will not be able to pass much of anything if Trump tries to deliver his campaign promises like no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no tax on overtime.
December 16, 2024: Trump Proposes Killing the $7,500 EV Credit and Seeks Tariffs on Battery Materials
Killing the EV subsidy is part of the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act. And the auto industry will fight to keep those subsidies.
Hopeful But Skeptical of DOGE
Compare the Reuters headline to mine. Reuters made it seem like a done deal. My headline says “proposes”.
Team DOGE has no authority to do anything but make recommendations. For all the hype, DOGE has not come up with anything that I would not have proposed.
For example, DOGE wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Great, but this is an idea that been circulation for at least a decade by Ron Paul and others.
The idea will die if four Republican Senators disagree or perhaps if as few as a couple of House members disagree.
Can DOGE even deliver something as simple as killing EV tax credits?
Minerals US Needs for Weapons and Technology
Please note China’s Puts Export Curbs on Minerals US Needs for Weapons and Technology
In a warning shot to the Trump administration, China tightens export controls on some dual-use minerals.
China produces an astonishing ~70% of the world’s rare earth minerals and controls nearly 50% of the global antimony supply [Used in communication equipment, night vision goggles, explosives, ammunition, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, optics, laser sighting and more].
China controls about 90% of global rare earth processing on minerals mined elsewhere.
On October 20, I noted Trump Disavows His Own “Best in History” USMCA Trade Deal
If USMCA was so great, why is Trump now threatening to break it?
On December 15, I asked Should We Take Trump Seriously or Literally on Huge Tariff Hikes?
Onge is taking Trump literally without factoring in any negative ramifications. It’s pie in the sky economic madness.
When It comes to 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, I take Trump neither literally nor seriously.
Rather, it’s another Mexico will pay for the way type of statement. You might also recall Trump’s insistence that “Trade wars are good and easy to win.”
For a recap of how that ludicrous statement turned out, please see Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check.
Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How?
House Speaker Johnson Approves Another Reckless Spending Bill
Yesterday, I posted House Speaker Johnson Approves Another Reckless Spending Bill
Senator Rick Scott blasts House Speaker Mike Johnson over a massive 1500+ page spending bill.
Think of the message and ramifications. It should not be hard. I will come back to it in a bit.
An Interactive Exercise: What Would You Do to Balance the Budget?
On December 4, I offered An Interactive Exercise: What Would You Do to Balance the Budget?
Trump is proposing at least $2 trillion in deficit-expanding, tax cut ideas. DOGE would need to come up with $2 trillion just to keep the existing deficits.
I balanced the budget. Team DOGE hasn’t and won’t. But my proposals have the same philosophical issue.
How the hell is DOGE going to do a damn thing when Republicans will have a smaller majority than they do now?
The Republican House is beyond pathetic and you really think DOGE will cut trillions?
It’s easier to do something than undo it. Cutting the budget is mostly a case of raising revenues or undoing something that’s already done.
The idea tariffs could balance the budget is mathematically ludicrous. It would cause massive inflation, then crash global trade.
I came up with something mathematically doable and fiscally responsible. Unfortunately, the path through Congress would be difficult to impossible, but at least my math works.
I am open to alternative ideas provided they are mathematically doable. Balancing the budget with tariffs is economic silliness. And that’s even if DOGE could somehow cut $2 trillion.
Today is my wife’s birthday. We are going golfing (she’s a big golfer, not me). I won’t be able to timely comment of Jerome Powel nonsense later today.
Enjoy the day and enjoy her enjoyment of the game. It’s not for me either unless there is a big hippo mouth, a wind mill and only one club to use.
Jerome Powell lowering rates in this 3.x% GDP, ~3% (ahem) inflation 4.2% unemployment environment is cra cra and to Upper Midwesterners so is golfing in winter. Another great reason to vacate Illinois!
HAVE FUN AND MAY SHE HAVE HER BEST GAME EVER! HAPPY WIFE HAPPY LIFE, ONE OF THE ONLY CHINA SAYINGS I AGREE WITH!
THE STOP GAP SPENDING BILL IS FULL OF PORK! THE ONLY CHANGE WE ARE GETTING IS IN THE FLAVOR OF THE SEASONING!
Have fun! I am lousy at golf.
Wow, your wife must be in shape!
Funny. Apparently DOGE proposals ending the federal education department is up there with ending NATO, ATF, Hoover’s FBI, the FED, Defense but formerly the Department of War, and ending the five Fs: Fascists’ Find ’em Feel ’em Fuuk ’em and Forget ’em. There’s always miniature golf though Mish. PS, although SEATO is defunct, like Wilson’s League Of Nations replaced by the current failed UN, the underlying treaty is still in force or on the books for more political games to play with old Formosa by Senator Lindsey Graham, the macho macho man. Merry Christmas .
Have fun on the golf course…. I’ve never played. As for DOGE….
1) Start with an across-the-board cut of all Fed budgets of 10% in year one, with the added burden of eliminating all NON-MERIT-based programs, hiring, firing, promoting etc. This must include all welfare, military, departmental etc budgets.
a) establish rigorous, meaningful, defensible criteria for individual and unit performance measurement, and implement
b) require departments to monitor expenses with monthly reports, and performance measures.
c) stop all salary increases, colas etc, job re classifications (upward)
d) Convert all US Federal pensions to buy US Treasury bills/bonds.
2) If there is a decreases in department performance, the next year, the budget reduction is another 10%. (and so on)
a) Failure to do any of the above, the budget cut is 20%
3) If performance is maintained in year 1, no subsequent budget cuts.
4) If performance substantially exceeds the base year, allow one-time merit payments
Who’s gonna be doing all this monitoring? Aren’t you cutting staff?
Faith implies all reason and evidence must be rejected without consideration, so, no.
If the DOGE effort goes ‘up the chain’ then nothing significant will become of it.
But, if the DOGE effort is perpetually aimed ‘down the chain’ towards voters as part of an effort to undo a century of leftist perspective having been embraced by government-schooled citizens then perhaps the DOGE effect may be felt in a generation or two.
DOGE may be yet another government agency that receives taxpayer dollars and returns nothing of value.
Hmm, the powerless DOGE just weighed-in along with Trump and Vance on the stop-gap spending bill and the message was deafening. Deep state moves to plan B. For those of us wondering, Johnson hasn’t changed. He’s still a rat.
The Q3 current account for the US was out today and was horrific, can only imagine what it would be like without the shale oil. The continuing resolution being debated by the Congress makes a mockery of Mr Trumps stated intentions on the budget. This train is out of control and the new cabin crew is a mixture of opportunists and speculators and I would want 6% coupons to buy 30 year sovereign paper at the moment.
The Dogeman cometh
There is one more problem – foreign investors will think twice before investing in the US if Trump treats agreements as toilet paper. Trump has made quite stupid talk about East Coast Longshoremen fight against automation. One can summarize it as Hey f*cking foreigners we will milk you! A bit stupid for a country which runs huge twin deficits and which needs foreign investments to re-industrialize.
The US does not need foreign investment to re-industrialize
“needs foreign investments…”
Talk about stupid
Is there no hope then?
America needs across the board cutting of spending.
They need a blanket costs go down 10% every year until the deficit declines to below (at minimum!) 100% of the US GDP. Balanced budget no matter what.
To not do this is to steal from future generations, and treat them like property. This is the problem even now.
DOGE has responsibility without authority which is a set up for failure.
Shouldn’t it be MARSHAL, instead of Sheriff?
After all Matt Dillion was US Marshal in Doge City, Kansas.
In the event tips are made tax exempt, I will reduce tips I give by the average income tax rate for US citizens, just to make sure everything is nice and fair.
No one is stopping you from becoming a waitress
You certainly can. And maybe you and others like you will eat out more often because of it.
If tips are made tax- exempt, then tips are no longer a tax deduction.
Trump needs to work on reducing military spending and welfare spending. Then, go for pork barrel projects that are not infrastructure. Finally, cut aid to Israel and other countries. Tariff’s income solely going to debt reduction.
None of this will happen. Thus, we’re broke.
2008 GOP presidential debate clip, especially 30 seconds in. Foretells how/why Trump appeared on the scene later and the reason for this Mish post.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0uvmKnFY4uk
Save you the trouble … it’s the Rick Perry glitch.
Doge is about Elon getting a pardon for his sec crimes, and loose safety regs for self driving cars. Cro-Magnon Barbie and The Brown Dwarf are there to help him troll everyone as a distraction. They don’t know this.
I don’t know what will happen but I can guarantee a Republican president will leave the economy in a ditch for their successor.
Why didn’t this wonderful economy you speak of get Kamala elected?
The US economy isn’t in great shape, but neither is the global economy and the US is among the best performing nations.
However, the previous poster wasn’t talking about Democratic performances, but rather the failure of Republican policies to create prosperity.
Yes and I asked a pertinent question? Surely blaming Trump for Covid occurring in March of 2020 is a ridiculous thing to do. I’d say the same if Biden were President at the time. How it was handled with crazy spending and 0 rates means the Fed and Biden share equal blame for the terrible inflation we’ve seen and underwhelming performance. It cost them the election.
Trump’s initial response was to close down the US to foreign travel. Done rigorously, it likely could’ve stopped Covid.
We need to remember that the Pelosi democraps squealed xenophobe
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/xenophobe-chief-democrats-blast-trump-s-plan-suspend-immigration-u-n1188551
Stupid people are very common…. There were enough to win, albeit not quite a majority.
When gen alpha hits voting age, you’ll have your majority.
“anything can happen….and it probably will”
Werner Heisenberg
All of congress is paid, by corporate America, to spend money, not to cut spending, or spend judiciously. They will be about as successful as the Grace Commission 40 years ago.
The DOGE fiscal benefits are concentrated in 2-3 places (entitlements, health, defense).
The DOGE anti-totalitarian, pro-freedom benefits are distributed throughout the gov’t (IRS, FBI, education, energy, EPA, CDC, etc).
Multiple ailments — same DOGE prescription.
“Do You Have Any Faith that Sheriff DOGE Will Reduce the Fiscal Deficit?”
Absolutely no. He, along with all the other corporate owners, only seek to pull the spend to their companies, not to decrease Fed spending.
Beginning of the next age of the oligarchs in the US
DOGE one part of the equation.
Growing economy at rates faster then it has been is another. Higher Real GDP means more revenue stream into coffers rather then running borrowed monies thru Treasury.
3rd quarter 310.9 Billions current account deficit released 8:30 AM EST today. Recycling this money thru the domestic economy with all multiplier effects would certainly crank up GDP engine. Tariff man will be doing something about this.
Credit expansion in both the public and private sector will continue unabated. Deficits will grow, and grow bigly. By 2028 the U.S. National Debt will double to about 80T. Trump is a big spender, very big. And even if the Deep State manages to assassinate Trump, Western Civilization including Empire America is entering the hyperbolic credit expansion phase. One day we’ll wake up to a total collapse- unless WW3 happens first, in which case debt won’t matter.
Trump’s plan is ridiculous and undoable. It’s a waste of time to even comment on his fantasies. Bet on higher deficits, higher interest rates and more inflation and forget the hyperbole.
I will be stunned if Trump is able to cut $200B from the budget deficit once everything is said & done after his last term.
Tax wise, I think he’ll get Congress to eliminate taxes on tips. This seems like a no brainer from popularity, fairness & tax code standpoints. I don’t think he’ll get taxes on overtime eliminated. As for eliminating taxes on SS income, I think it’s more likely that he’ll get them reduced from 85% down to 50%, a nice win for retirees. As for tariffs, we know they’re coming, it’s nearly impossible at this stage to predict what the breadth & depth will look like and the resulting revenue or possible inflation.
In terms of real cuts to the Federal work force, the Dems & their cabal of lawyers will fight everything Trump tries to tooth & nail. And the GOP members of the UniParty will join in the fun.
So my prediction is the loss of tax revenue is offset by tariffs revenue, and he’s left with whatever DOGE can shine enough light on to generate public support for making the cuts. But that’s a tall order.
I have my doubts. To-date, nobody is talking ear marks or what I believe is now called Direct Congressional Spending. Granted, earmarks aren’t a ton of money, but you’ve got to at least get past the worst abuse to make it to the finish line with real cuts.
No taxes on tips is certainly popular, but I’m not sure it’s fair (and I’m sure it’s not good for the tax code/tax policy). The ineveitable result is that more and more businesses will pay a even lower non-living wage such that American service workers are even more dependent on tips. In the end, it seems like a way to incentivize end-runs around the increased minimum wages that Blue states have enacted.
I think it’s fair simply because a tips job, often times, can be on the lower end of the scale of pay and the complexity around ensuring tips are reported accurately. Of the three proposals, this seems to be the one most likely Congress can get behind.
I don’t think anyone is suggesting the minimum wage for tips earners should be reduced. However, not taxing tips might reduce the willingness down the road to increase that part of the national minimum wage.
He’ll give his rich cronies more than he cuts. Another record deficit incoming. Prepare for a bunch more culture war circus to distract the monkeys.
“Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your viewpoint), DOGE cannot do anything but make recommendations.”
That really signals the bottom line. Likewise, a president can have an agenda, but if congress doesn’t support it, money doesn’t get allocated for it. Also, political parties trade executive orders, as presidents change office. I hear Newsom is allegedly picking up Harris’s staff. Democrats will want to undo whatever Trump accomplishes in their next bite at the apple.
DOGE is an absolutely brilliant idea. Drawing open the curtains on our foul government is what Trump does best. Just look at the hypocrisy within the Republican party alone that is being exposed. Multiply this by ten once DOGE gets going. I foresee many primaries in the future.
Are we feeling unburdened by what has been yet?
US has been running a 2 trillion dollar deficit for two years with unemployment at less than 4% for most of that time. Unforgivable what this admin has done
and yet somehow I feel my lifestyle slipping away. Everything is more expensive. a trip to the grocery store is a nightmare as I look at an 8$ bag of Fritos, something that cost a buck and a half around 2005.
Cheap junk from china is becoming expensive junk from china. Plants at the big box store that used to be a dozen for 3$ are now15$ a dozen. common gravel that was 3$ a bag is now 7$ a bag. its freakin rock, why did it double in price?
Homes are unaffordable, I’m fortunate, mine is paid for. it has tripled in value in less than 10 years. it hasn’t gotten any nicer, but somehow it now worth triple.
I could afford a new car, but why bother, when I’d be better using the money for a down payment on a 2nd home. an appreciating asset, rather than a car or truck which is a depreciating asset. my point the cost of a new car is stratospheric like fritos and gravel. I’m surprized they haven’t started charging for breathing.
The economics is destroying the world of consumers who are as they say the “Backbone” of the economy. Despite manipulated numbers and feel good stock market reporting. People are in dire straits.
Congress won’t approve any cuts recommended by DOGE. The cuts will be by executive order. Trump can reduce government employees by making them all work in the office 5 days per week. This won’t reduce the deficit.
If many quit it will reduce the deficit. Small but you have to start somewhere. Doing nothing is not an option.
Union Contract still holds. Trump’s not a dictator is he?
Judicial branch (esp in WDC) will side (rightly so) with Union contract.
Meanwhile, Trump could lockout the employees but he’ll lose the court case and pay back wages anyway.
You might say to relocate the office; however, Union contracts (for some workers; not all) still allow workers to show up 1 day per month. Maybe relocate offices into Ukraine?
Spending reductions via Privatized and rationed Medicare/caid (with more tremendous language that I’m using).
You sound nervous. Govt employee?
3 words: Federal Hiring Freeze
Time takes care of the rest.
If every federal employee was paid and locked up in a room counting paper clips for the next 5 years the rest of the country would be better for it. 1980s USSR.
Ninotchka, one of the last, if not the last films by Greta Garbo is a great movie, its in the library of congress. it was made in 1939, it explores Communism and capitalism as a romantic comedy in Paris. its well worth a watch.
a. it shows how far hollywood has fallen, in its abilities to communicate, witty, farce and the fate of common people.
b. it shows the chasm between communism and capitalism and the commonality (those at the top always do well – regardless of political system)
c. it shows you a world that no longer exists, but was worth far more than our modern life of cheap electronic gadgets and meaningless mass media.
d. its funny as hell….
Democrats just don’t get it. They still don’t understand why they were clobbered in the election either. Probably TDS, so it’s not fair to call them all stupid.
ignorance and stupidity are often used interchangeably, but mean very different things. Democrats are a little stupid,but mostly terribly ignorant, because they can’t/wont seek education which would lead them out of ignorance,
its a feature of the democratic thought process, if you wander off the reservation you are dead to them. Democrats educate themselves at the danger of becoming disillusioned and cast out of their enclave of comfy outrage.
so they spend billions to end homelessness in a 10 year program that has went on for 21 years and has increased homelessness. doubling down on stupid is a feature of democratic programs. The ignorance of their voters,helps to enrich their leaders without questioning, because a democrat who questions, becomes an independent and then a Trumper republican and starts enjoying themselves and hanging out with all manner of strange and dangerous and funny people.
This 3 month budget bill should be voted down. Its atrocious
I am confident that congress critters who vote against DOGE proposals will be primaried with funding from RNC, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and MAGA voters.
Ok, good plan. How long does that take? 2 years … DNC wins a couple seats and booyaa no more majority just like tRumps first term and just wait him out.
As seen in CR; the bacon is still tasty.
DOGE will be a vast new government agency outsizing Homeland Securty and the Pentagon…remember when Homeland Security was created to increase govt efficiency? DOGE will hire 1/2 the US population to spy on and abuse the other 1/2….it’s American end o empire stuff.
DOGE Is not and will not be an agency. All they can do is offer recommendations.
sometimes its better to be a consultant than managment. the first rule of power is do not define your role, it helps intimidate people.
if you’ve ever had a consultant come to your firm, the employees tell them things they would never tell management.
So, basically, no change from Obamament? 🙂 continuing the /s
Obama was CIA as was his mother, and her family. Obama was the face of the state department, a figure head, like all presidents in varying degrees since JFK had the back of his skull removed in broad daylight on that day that changed the world in Dallas.
Trump is not CIA and won’t cooperate and that is why they hate him and want him dead and disgraced.
The gnashing of teeth in Washington D.C. can be heard all the way to flyover country. They have boxed themselves in and the lawfare failed, the fake russian dossier failed, etc.
They will continue to try to disable or remove Trump, he is I’m sure quite aware of this by now, something Kennedy gave little thought to apparently.l
As a teen I recall Clinton and Gore went on a late night talk show discussing the “outrageous” costs of general office supplies used by the government and how they were going to “fix” it. I think Gore even took out a sheet with line items on it and proceeded to ramble off a few to the audience.
Typical political pandering but it was effective at getting them elected. The budget did eventually get balanced but much of that was due to a surplus from my understanding. It also came at the costs of cutting programs of their political enemies. Several years later when I went to use my earned GI BILL it was suspended due to balancing the budget. I had to end up taking out a loan a couple semesters. The GI BILL back then wasn’t a blank check either. I had to put in something like $1200 first. A lot of money back then for a private.
I imagine DOGE will be much of the same. Point out a lot of glaring problems but really no ability to do much about it than pluck some low hanging fruit stuff. At the costs of their political enemies of course.
Stock market bubble and Republican leadership under Gingrich was the reason for the balanced budget
The budget was not balanced under Clinton. Total debt increased. Why? Intragovernmetnal holdings (i.e. SSI) of course. This myth of a balanced budget claimed by both sides of the isle during Clinton’s tenure needs to be put to bed.
Fair enough. The national debt was lessened during the late 90’s. Clinton would be considered a conservative compared to todays Democrats
Read my statment again. Total debt increased!!! So by definition the national debt was not lessened as you claim.
The national debt increased by.3% from 1999 to 2000. When you factor the feds necessary buying of securities, it was an actual surplus. Its idiotic to argue this was not a balanced budget because of the infinitesimal national debt increase 9less than 1%). btw- I didn’t vote for Clinton, but he was the best we’ve had in the post ww2 era. Never listen to partisans, they always make straw man arguments. Compare Clinton’s fiscal integrity to Reagan and Bush for a shock.
Sad but true..Bush was CIA,- he was Director of CIA before he was vice president and Reagan was slipping into dementia and essentialy Bush ran Reagan’s 2nd term
I tried to make that point and received many downvotes, be careful, the tribes maintain strict lines of belief,
Sorry that’s ridiculous. Social security taxes are simply taxes that go into the general fund and fund government programs wars etc. BTW-The debt always increases because of compound interest and on going open market operations.
Correct!
Peak Boomer in the workforce years.
Really? Check reinventing government, Gore’s plan. The Clinton/Gore team eliminated 250k government jobs and balanced the budget.
Unfunded liabilities are a great discussion too.
They increase every year, are not measured/publicized. Of course, the big player was an R (Bush II) with Part D that spurred the Drug industry to create new/never-ending/expensive non-solutions to lifestyle medical conditions
$100,000,000,000,000 – $200T in today’s dollars … sleep well….
GI Bill worked much better for the Cold War military.
OF COURSE, they won’t reduce the deficit! The actual (and sole) purpose of DOGE is to gut as many regulations as possible so the rich corporatists can further exploit the people and the environment to make HUGE profits for themselves.
Regulations make it difficult for the little guy to compete against the rich corporations, which can afford to comply with regulations.
Rich corporations are big and more powerful than the government BECAUSE of the gutting of regulations such as antitrust laws.
Big corporations DON’T bother to comply with regulations. All they need to do is to buy Presidents, Senators and representatives. Lot cheaper than complying with regulations.
so we blame the corporations for the lack of a spine and moral integerity of the elected officials? I think they ran for office knowing it was the path to wealth through grift and graft. see biden, bush etc..
for someone who isn’t yet President, the amount of FUD, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, being wrangled, dispensed, atomized and spread into the atmosphere is certainly interesting and entertaining.
So little new or interesting in the world, that 7 billion people turn their gaze to one man Donald Trump, as he is the only unmanufactured news in the entire cia/nsa/etc propaganda system.
Shall we all shat our diapers like Joe Biden contemplating the unknowable and cowering in our basements, or should we just wait and see what unfolds?
Really 2nd guessing rumours is a waste of time and road to frustration. Why not live in the reality of today? Why conjure ghost and spirits, rumours and plans?
I find this entire premise a bit thin..
People are so impatient. And cynical. The adults are finally in charge next month.
Be careful what you wish for because you might get skewered on this site. Let’s look at the “reality of today”:
2.7% inflation YOY
4.2% unemployment rate in America
3.2% GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in 4th quarter 2024 (following the previous quarterly increases of 2.8, 3.0, 1.6, 3.2, etc)
Bookmark this and see where we are one year from today when we won’t have to “conjure ghosts and spirits, rumours and plans” for Trump and the Republican Congress, but can see their actual results after a year in power
Then give us a number. How much will Trump reduce the deficit!?
I’m not psychic, I’m a realist, I’ll wait for the plans to become reality, before assuming I know the answers.
DOGE it’s going to be a scam, all BS. The deficit will increase under Trump just like last time. The Congress may punish the poor (the congress is mainly christian, lol) and the down trodden because it makes them feel superior (like Jesus told them to do). If you kill Federal income tax what happens to state taxes of all kinds? TN where I now reside has no state income tax but a 9.9% sales tax, even on cars and trucks.
Most people like and want the services government provides but we sure don’t like paying for them. One good example is Medicare Advantage, pay nothing (Medicare pays) receive inferior benefits, it’s all a scam when Corporate America gets involved, the insatiable profit motive ruins almost everything.
“Most people like and want the services government provides but we sure don’t like paying for them.” Yes, how about roads, freeways, sidewalks, water systems, Internet (originated in gov), microchips (same) commercial air flight (same), national security (such as it is), the dollar, …. So, not extracting profits from these things (from us), but the opposite, gov has deficits. Yes, they are excessive, drastically. I endorse what Mish says here, along with his bracing dose of reality. But the lack of basic comprehension is now being multiplied, in the new admin and across the public. There’s so much marketing and gullibility around this country. As always. Like that saying, let’s see how you like it, or survive, if and when things actually become very fair.
The conclusion has to be the US is simply not serious about its fiscal situation. This is exactly how developing countries behave when they stare into a fiscal abyss. They try to tap non-existent revenue sources (tariffs), call in some spending reduction shaman (Musk), or fantasize about using inflation to tax away the public debt (Trump hasn’t done that one yet, but it will certainly occur to him given the genius he is).
I don’t expect miracles from the DOGE efforts. I do expect them to bring up and expose crazy spending and horrible mismanagement of government programs.
Any “savings” will just be a nice addition. Bringing some sun light onto the over expansion and dark manipulations of government programs and the way they are run will hopefully have the average person asking serious questions of their representatives, D or R.
Something has to change, efforts to trim the size of the U.S. budget must be attempted, there should be no sacred cows.
Otherwise we just continue the slow trod to collapse once the money finally runs out. That won’t be pleasant for anyone.
On principle the Department Of Education and several others should be abolished regardless of cost/savings.
that requires an act of congress
I believe it is the US Congress that has faith in the US children and grandchildren being able to afford the payments.
faith? You misspelled indifference.
indifference? you misspelled “involuntary servitude”..
That’s a joke. The young kids don’t even want to work. Also, the birth rate is significantly decreasing
less screen time and more mattress time could turn this around real quick. shut down the neuroses machines ban smartphones for anyone under 21 years of age. dumb phones for children, metered to 60 minutes per day maximum.
its not rocket science its social engineering..suddenly everyone is a trans autistic bisexual vlogging streaming celebrity. Main character syndrome can’t exist without the internet smart phone. ban cameras from cell phones, watch reality return..
Name the last time a GOP administration cut the deficit.
Bill Clinton’s 8 years in the swamp..
but bill balanced the budget and ran a surplus and he wasn’t a democrat, he didn’t beleive in 3 sexes, just cigars and interns and sending all the factories to China….I guess maybe he was a communist, sometimes the political parties blur and smudge into a political sludge that needs a plumber or a house fire..
Math teacher here. The budget is SS, Medicare/Medicaid, and DOD. If you’ve taken all those off the table (or, in the case of DOD, promised to spend even more) then you might as well tell DOGE to disband.
I guess it’s a good scheme to fool gullible people, though, which is probably the point.
Nothing off the table. That’s the point
But it’s not. The incoming admin has expressly said so. I’m sure DOGE won’t say a damn thing about DOD funding. Do you believe otherwise?
you really don’t understand.. DOGE is a ruse, like a cia coverstory, its being used to get the federal government to open their Kimono to see whats inside that classified world of prime cut grade A, number one, GRIFT.
You can’t cut what you don’t know exists..
the budget is published to the public with all the information you could want including projections and analysis. Nothing there is classified
if you think the published budget is reality you haven’t really noticed anything since the inception of the cia (1947) and the NSA (1954)
Agree. DOGE doesn’t want to get fired by Trump, so they’ll be careful to leave DOD alone.
Trump has said repeatedly that changes to SSI/Medicare are off the table.
They NEED to increase the ss payroll deduction to raise revenue otherwise ss is going to have significant decreases in benefits. They should also raise the retirement age to 70 for people less than 50 years old. Most people don’t know the reason all politicians say they won’t touch ss is because there is already a law that doesn’t allow payouts to exceed revenue. Benefit amounts automatically get cut when the money is gone.
DOGE is merely a catchy talking point…
the topic of discussion not so important…
as who gets to sit at that table.
Yeah, now they have the votes why would they GAF about the deficit? Time to kick this global Ponzi scheme into high gear. Get yours before the song ends.
Very much agree with this and I have said the same thing many times in other posts.
Unless the areas you mentioned are cut, taxes are increased, or some combo of those two are implemented then deficit reduction is little more than a pipe dream.
Firing all Fed emoloyee would save roughly $271 billion a year according to the CBO (2022 figures). 60% of that is tied to the VA and DoD. While I’m fine with eliminating the department of education it’s a drop in the bucket. I’ve heard all this crap about cuts a million times before, but even the proposed cuts would do little to fix the issue. Plus any cuts can be easily undone.
The American public needs to figure out what they want thier govenrment to do for them. If the public wants all of these services then they need to start paying for it. It’s that simple.
a billion here, a billion there, after a while it starts to add up.
I’m only curious as to how those two think they are going to get out of DOGE with their reputations intact. Hope springs eternal.
The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ Men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!
Reputations? They aren’t after reputation, who cares about that. They want money and ego service.
My wife runs one of the few programs supported by both sides of the political spectrum (Congress).
The two issues all programs run into is over regulation, some admins (the politicals) and political leanings are worse then others.
And the other is program expansion without Congressional authorization.
The last time Trump was in office, they reduced regulation (everyone already knows this) but the also shut down many unauthorized program expansions. What most don’t realize, they can get rid of over program expansion BUT they can’t get rid of the employees that were shifted and/or hired to fill the expansion.
I think DOGE is likely to stun American at how bad its gotten. But as we know spending bills are totally laden with pork projects, slipped in and “approved” by a willfully ignorant Congress… hey they want their pork also.
The problem with cutting the budget is that every item in the budget has a constituency. It was put in the budget because an elected official wanted it, so taking it out is not easy. Or in defense, contractors make sure they have high defense spending in every single state so they keep the budgets even if the systems are hopelessly outdated. The fact that Congress – their only real job has not been able to pass a budget for the last two years does not bode well. .I expect the first year of the Republcan congress, they will pass ‘a sort of budget’ that makes some cuts so they can say they did something. But as Mich says, they will be small and likely target the Dems favorite items.
No sacred cows. It all needs to go.
welcome to public choice theory. A 100 million dollar handout to 1 special interest costs everyone else a half penny. The fight to protect the 100 million will be infinitely more intense than the fight to save a half penny. Democracy delivered by uncle sugar was always going to end in tears.
Life always ends in tears, Democracy was just one more kind of wallpaper to hide the gears and machinery, whilst conveying the citizens into oblivion, bereft of assets and belongings, flying like moths into the flames of Liberty.
I’d kind like to wait and give them a chance first, before wringing my hands and worrying about it like a girl.
exactly. arguing over illusions and shadows of illusions, the internet is trash. If you need it on steroids stroll over to Reddit and browse the insanity meant to burn the fleeting moments of life on momentary outrage, stupidity and jealousy.
Its flypaper for morons and every day the tarbabies pile up stuck to one another, screaming, and still they storm the gates for a moment of attention, a click, a like. Its a maze with no exit.
lets allow the future to unfold and not gaze upon it until it becomes the present.
Truth!
You forgot your
Nobody will do anything about anything
And when it comes to spending you are spot on.
It strikes me that rather than killing the DOE, it needs to reduce its headcount substantially and implement a few rules. for instance, any school that has a DEI framework loses all federal funding, whether of research or student loan eligibility. next, any school that has more administrators than teachers/professors also loses all federal funding.
Schools then have a choice as to how they want to proceed. if they can self fund and have those positions, more power to them, but the US taxpayer doesn’t need to pay for that.
And arguably, given the performance of US schools relative to those elsewhere in the world, at least according to recent surveys, the DOE has been the cause of ignorance, not a fight against it.
As you accurately point out The department of ed hasn’t resulted in actual education. So why keep any of them when we are running 2 trillion dollar deficits? We aren’t cutting fat or bone. We’re cutting tumors.
Agree. The Department of “Defense” hasn’t done any defending, either. They’re the biggest tumor of all.
The DOD hasn’t won a war since WW2. Korea=Fail, Vietnam=Fail, Iraq=Fail, Afghanistan=Fail, but they did free those collage kids on Granada.
Just to be clear we won the first Iraq war in a blowout so that’s a success. That was the high point for the US military and the US influence since the USSR had just dissolved and China was still backward.
It was only the 2nd ill advised invasion that we didn’t win.
Technically it was the Department of War, aka the War Department that won WWII, so the DOD hasn’t actually ever won a war.
its like arguing over which barn has the biggest pile of manure, rather than shoveling them out or tearing them down. whats the point?
Eliminating DEI has a great ring, but will save a few pennies at most on the federal deficit. And most schools faced with increasing deficits like ours have cut any of those programs last year and now are eliminating teachers.
eliminating DEI isn’t about saving money, its about eliminating the brainwashing. try to pay attention, many things are about to change. rather quickly.
Teacher here (my retirement gig). There’s plenty to criticize about the DOE but the vast majority of education funding is state/local money. What the DOE *does* fund is mostly Title 1 (extra money for schools with a lot of poor kids/in areas with a very low tax base) and IDEA (money for special education/kids with mental or physical disabilities, which is often hard for local districts to fund on their own).
The whole budget is $80 billion. So even if you want to cut funding for kids in poor school districts (I will let you think about where a lot of those districts are) and kids with Down’s/Autism/etc (that will be super popular) you’re not doing anything particularly meaningful when it comes to the larger federal deficit.
If your objection to the DOE is philosophical rather than financial, you can also rest easy, because what your kids are being taught is 100% determined at the local/state level, not by the DOE. There is no faceless bureaucrat forcing your kids to learn about changing their gender. If that’s happening, you should be paying more attention to your recent school board elections.
I’d say they guide in this direction more than force although that is arguable.
https://www.ed.gov/media/document/ed-factsheet-transgender-202106pdf
States are perfectly capable of educating their own autistic kids.
Agree again with Walt here.
My wife is a teacher as well and everything Walt is saying is spot on. The quote below, in particular, needs to sink in with folks but it won’t because people have decided that a shadowy cabal of “demons” is pulling the strings in secret.
“…There is no faceless bureaucrat forcing your kids to learn about changing their gender. If that’s happening, you should be paying more attention to your recent school board elections…”
One thing that my wife is seeing alot of is serious behaviorial issues with students. That has little to do with schools/government. It is soley a result of shitty parenting. She’s been an elementary teacher for 20+ years and behavior has gotten progressively worse, especially in the last 5 years or so. Kids are increasingly violent (clear the room violent), disrespectful, and needy. She doesn’t teach in a poor neighborhood either, quite the opposite actually.
its a lot more than “shitty parenting”, though thats an easy excuse and simple to understand. Its a host of factors intentionally brought into existence to decrease the education and educatability of the general populace.
decades of short attention span theatre, courtesy of TV and now SmartPhones, ensures difficulty in educating at every level. Bad food sold to everyone causing metabolic disorders, brain fog.
Vaccines, a newborn infant will receive over a hundred injections by the time they graduate high school,if they make it that far. Create autism, immune disorders, food intolerance, brain fog, poor digestion leading to obesity, diabetes and a host of damages that make exercize and thinking difficult.
Constant propaganda from school books and the teachers who have been through the education mill and teach to a “standard”.
who exactly is standard in this world, and for that matter who wants to be “standard” ? isn’t standard another word for average, which becomes lower by the day.
Children are like plants, they will grow best when natured rather than abused – the entire world has been constructed to paint a reality that is false and few can see that they are being brainwashed daily. They don’t understand the world, because they are in a cocoon of propaganda, buzz words, theories, scripted scenarios, so they fall back on the simple and opposing team.
for teachers, its parents. for parents it teachers, for democrats, its republicans, for republicans, its democrats. you can see the game even if you don’t understand the rules..
dig deeper if you want to understand, if not, keep reacting – you are playing your role just like they want you to.
Did you write the “Matrix”? I LOVE that movie
“…decades of short attention span theatre, courtesy of TV and now SmartPhones, ensures difficulty in educating at every level. Bad food sold to everyone causing metabolic disorders, brain fog….”
Who gives the kids the smart phones and shitty food? Last I checked that primarily comes from the parents. You are pointing the finger at a shadowy conspiracy which is always easier than pointing your finger at yourself. Your statement is rife with victimhood.
“…Vaccines, a newborn infant will receive over a hundred injections by the time they graduate high school,if they make it that far. Create autism, immune disorders, food intolerance, brain fog, poor digestion leading to obesity, diabetes and a host of damages that make exercize and thinking difficult…”
Vaccines have been around for over 50 years, and these issues (behavior) have only cropped up in the last 10 to 15 years. This is conspiracy BS. Obesity comes from eating to much coupled with sitting on one’s ass all day, not vaccines. Calories in minus calories out = weight gain or loss. It’s the 1st law of thermodynamics in action.
“…Constant propaganda from school books and the teachers who have been through the education mill and teach to a “standard”.
who exactly is standard in this world, and for that matter who wants to be “standard” ? isn’t standard another word for average, which becomes lower by the day…”
Teach to the standard….you are making Walt’s and I’s point. State and local governments create the education standards. These standards are passed to the employees (i.e. teachers) to execute. If you have a problem with it contact your state board of education and attend your local school board meetings.
More whining, playing the victim card, and finger pointing.
just a single point for you to dig into, vaccines have existed since before the revolutionary war. if one vaccine is good a hundred must be fantastic… read up and stop reacting.
Read a high school text book from a hundred years ago and see the decline in intellect, it was manufactured by the process and those who control the process and I’m not talking about teachers, they are drones like assembly line workers, don’t question just do and get your paycheck and bitch in the teacher’s lounge..
cause and effect are real principles of reality, if you want to understand reality, understand who is causing the effects and why. it ain’t parents,they are fertile fools clutching at straws trying to figure it out and usually doing the best they can considering the circumstances.
Its a rigged game and the parents are too busy trying to keep their heads above water to find out who flooded their world with all the insane bullshit. They park their kids in front of the tv or the ipad etc, not cause they want to brainwash them, cause they want to shut them up, bad parenting or ignorant parenting?
have you ever seen Idiocracy? That is close to our reality, but the stupidity is being manufactured, there is only so much room at the top of the pyramid. Better to have a sea of fools with a few elite in life rafts, or so they think.
You are to stupid to understand the implications of what you are suggesting. If everything is “manufactured”, as you suggest, then 95% of the population are functional idiots who are too dumb to understand what’s happening to them. In others words, you are playing the victim card….no one has any responsibility for themselves or free will. Of course I’m sure that excludes you who has all of the secret knowledge and insight to fight the shadowy globalists. If most of the population likes living with blinders on, who are you to free them? It’s their life not yours. So many people think they know how everyone else should live thier lives. In reality those people are just tiny dictators who live a life of fear and resentment. They think that if they can get everyone to think and act like they do then their life situation will improve…..it won’t. Why? Well, because they live a life of the perpetual victim. Always pointing the finger at others (who are often unseen and unseeable) for thier failures.
People make certain choices because those chocies are convenient at that moment. Either parents are responsible or they aren’t. If they aren’t I guess some organization you approve of needs to take all the kids and deprogram them and thier parents. After all, what happenes if parents reject your conspiracy? What so you do then?
Yes, I’ve seen Idiocracy, and your unhinged conspiracy laden drivel is indicative of the idiocy portrayed in the film.
looks like Qanon as entered the chat
Que-anon was a propaganda program, probably ran out of the state department or a trusted vendor in Langley. Its not an individual, just like MKultra wasn’t an individual.
your a teacher, explain how we spend more money per student now, than a century ago, and yet fewer pupils can read, add or think well?
what is the nature of this “education” they receive?
Different cohort of kids. A century ago only the wealthier/smarter kids attended through high school.
COVID shutdowns crushed us though.
Covid was stupidity incarnate, but I don’t beleive that particular element of it was transmissible. A century ago was 1924, public education was in every state. so somehow everyone got stupider, but for no reason really so no need to look into it.
the ignorance of the modern world is only exceeded by the lack of curiousity exhibited by those wandering through it.
In the 1920s we still had legal child labor (and a lot of it) in the US. A lot of kids worked rather than attending school (that didn’t become illegal until 1938). Interestingly that is the decade where high school attendance and graduation started really rising (culminating the in the 1960s) but as of 1924 there were definitely a ton of poor/lower class kids that did not attend much school. So academically, it’s not comparable.
And many teens had to to go to work to help support their families.
Start by completely eliminating the corporate income tax and replacing that revenue with a moderate across the board import tariff. There is no tax that does as much damage to growth and freedom per measly dollar raised than the corporate income tax.
I explained 100 times Tariffs will not bring in much revenue.
Have faith Mish. The season of giving.
Why such a fixation for the Department of Education, which consumes a tiny fraction of the federal budget? It sounds like an excuse to funnel public money to private schools, and give the states the discretion to implement whatever standards they want, be that secular or religious. Make America Ignorant Again (not that it needs much of a push).
Try for example to figure out where the trillions of money that the Pentagon cannot account for went into. That would be a serious effort to cut the budget. Loads of fat in the defense budget, but let’s kill public education because it has been a fixation of the GOP for centuries.
But we know from history that when the GOP gets in power it is as profligate as the Dems if not more.
DOGE will likely be another smoking mirrors effort to direct federal resources to private interests.
States covering the cost of education without federal strings that haven’t improved education sounds like a feature not a bug.
The strings are minimal, unless you think mandating that kids with disabilities get an education is federal overreach.
Because that is all DOGE has come up with!