CA-13 is the last uncalled race. Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) trails Democratic challenger Adam Gray by about 190 votes.
If Adam Gray wins as now expected, the total will be 220-215. That would mean Republicans could lose no more than one vote to pass legislation.
But it’s even worse because Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned his seat. That would make it 219-215.
Also, Trump tapped Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-NY for ambassador to United Nations, and Mike Waltz, R-Fl for national security adviser, respectively.
The Florida seats will have a special election on April 1, but the date for New York special election is not set and the Democrat Governor will delay that as long as possible.
What About a Tie Vote in the House?
CBS News explains Tie Vote.
What a tie vote means in the House
According to House rules, in the case of a tie vote, a question before the chamber “shall be lost.” In the lower chamber, where Republicans hold just a slim majority and often see a handful of defections among their conference, there’s no tie-breaker. Unlike in the Senate, where a tie-breaking vote may be cast, no one is brought in to resolve the issue.
Breaking a tie vote in the Senate
In the upper chamber, which sees tie votes with more regularity, the Vice President is called upon to cast tie-breaking votes. In recent years, with a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris has on more than 30 occasions cast a tie-breaking vote, breaking the record set almost 200 years ago.
With the above in mind, assuming Stefanik is quickly confirmed, the House would be 217-215 with Republicans having zero votes to spare in a flip, but one vote to spare due to an absence or abstention.
A single flip would make it 216-216. Even at 219-215 after the special elections, Republicans can afford at most one flip making a vote 218-216. A second flip would result in a 217-217 tie.
Freedom Caucus Coming Up to Bat
There are about 39 Freedom Caucus members but there is no official list.
This group of freedom fighters supposedly wants a balance budget. They removed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the budget.
Republicans then replaced McCarthy with Mike Johnson who agreed to much worse deals than McCarthy aimed for.
Mike Johnson Is the New (But Not Improved) Kevin McCarthy
On January 18, I commented Mike Johnson Is the New (But Not Improved) Kevin McCarthy
The House just passed Mike Johnson’s bipartisan continuing resolution punt. Dear Republicans, please wave the white flag and surrender before doing more damage, because more damage is on the table just today.
Kevin McCarthy proposed $1.47 trillion and that included something the border. We are at least $1.8 trillion now, and I suspect closer to $2.0 trillion.
Nor does it include the full ramifications of child tax credits that now appear to cost an average of $150 billion a year. The estimate yesterday was $78 billion a year for the entire deal.
Dear Republicans, please wave the white flag and surrender!
Republican Humiliation
On March 21, I noted Republican Humiliation Enshrined in Huge 1,000-Page $1.2 Trillion Bill
Bear in mind that $1.526 trillion McCarthy proposed was for the whole shebang, 12 separate items.
The $1.2 Trillion that is on the table is for six components, not the entire budget.
At a minimum, we are at $2.086 trillion. And that is not counting Biden’s request for another $100 billion or so for Ukraine and Israel.
It was even worse than I expected. The final package funds “Teens Like Us LGBTQIA2s+” and “Gender Affirming Clothing Program” for ages 13-18. Mercy!
OK Freedom Caucus, Now What?
Here’s the deal. If there are many as two defections, Republicans will not be able to pass much of anything if Trump tries to deliver his campaign promises like no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no tax on overtime.
How many balanced budget hypocrites do you expect to see when Trump proposes big budget deficit increases?
Given there are about 39 Freedom Caucus Republicans, I expect to see about 39 flaming hypocrites.
The way to lose more more seats in the midterms is to primary everyone who disagrees with Trump on anything.
Poor candidate selection is why Republicans lost two Senate seats in Georgia, one seat in Pennsylvania, and in 2024 another seat in Arizona.
The House is not the critical arena of politics, the Senate is, and there the Republicans are more likely to march in lockstep with the party line, and to toe it.
If the Senate can assume its traditional “commanding heights” position in American politics, they can lead by example and influence the House. It is entirely possible that we may see Republicans siding with Democrats in the House, but I think it’s likelier still that the House will follow the Senate Republicans’ example and vote as a body.
Trump is well-liked among the rank-and-file, too. Consider that. That’s gotta count for something.
You can read more of my writings by going to: dark . sport . blog … on the net.
Yes. Senate will give moderate House Dems opportunity to move back towards Center.
If they want funding for programs still has to pass muster in GOP controlled Senate.
Dems do not have the power of a monolithic forum in congress any longer.
Enjoy the hubris of the next few weeks … gridlock hits when congress re-starts.
Here’s a couple possible defectors (Pence is a true conservative but could balk at tariffs … who knows about the CA rep):
David Valadao (CA)Greg Pence (IN)
Others?
Pence should bunk up with Kinzinger in Illinois.
Trump was an idiot to take anyone out of the House to fill cabinet positions.
Multiple House seats were likely stolen. An incumbent female (Steele) does not lose to a left wing Vietnamese immigrant in an ultra red CA county. And there are plenty more suspect races beyond that one.
While the GOP celebrated, Marc Elias was working 24/7. When you have Pelosi’s daughter chasing ballots after the election has been over for a week, it tells you all you need to know.
My belief is that this was the plan all along. Once they knew it was too big too rig at the top the Dems focused on neutering Trump down ballot.
The GOP was not prepared and even if they were, in CA, WI, NY I’m not sure there was anything they could have done. Nearly all states Trump lost don’t have voter ID.
Orange County isn’t ultra red any more. Steele apparently didn’t win by many votes last time.
Orange county hasn’t been republican since B1 Bob in 1997 it’s long over in that county. Republicans there are just pretending there is hope because they don’t want to move. HA
39 is way too low
That’s good. Hopefully.
Most of what these people do is bad for actual citizens. I hope they spend a lot less and start taking LESS from the actual productive population.
Oh, did they finally finish counting in “technology savvy” California? I’ve received Citgo and Menards rebates faster and that’s saying something.
What’s interesting is that we comment that there will be some defections in the Republican ranks. We never have anything like that when Democrats hold a slim majority. There is 100% unification in the Democrat party–they would oppose Santa Claus if the Republicans were for it and there would be enough defections by Republicans to lose, yet again, to the Demoncrats. We need a strong Speaker to bring them inline but I am embarrased I just typed such a preposterous and impossible thought.
I would argue that if a vote has to be postmarked and/or received by election day, the count should have a reasonable deadline as well. When it takes 3 extra weeks no one with a brain thinks it’s on the level. Might as well use a telegraph office, pony express or smoke signals to signal a voter’s intent. I wouldn’t accept this level of delay in shipping of any product even when it comes overseas.
President Trump has war chest enough to primary reluctant Republicans. Some are suggesting President Trump may resign after two years to give V.P. Vance an advantage for presidential election to a ten year term of office. Notice that President Trump made the unusual choice of a vice president who has the credentials, the oratory, and stage presence to upstage President Trump. JD Vance was chosen with a long term strategy in mind.
The way to lose more seats is to primary everyone who disagrees.
Piss poor candidate selection is why Republicans lost two Senate seats in Georgia, one seat in Pennsylvania, and in 2024 another seat in Arizona.
You didn’t like Herschel Walker? 😉
In light of the very slim GOP majority, Trump picking administration members out of the House seems a little weird. I assume most of those districts will be won by Republicans, but even so… Stefanik and Waltz are way too far up Israel’s ass for my liking, but as long as Gabbard gets confirmed and Trump listens to her, it might be OK. Huckabee, Gorka and Hegseth are embarrassments.
Gridlock isn’t the worst thing in the world.
“How many balanced budget hypocrites do you expect to see when Trump proposes big budget deficit increases?”
All of them.
Many Republican reps from the Northeast have to take fairly moderate stances if they want to be reelected. Johnson is in an ugly bind. Democrats will vote in favor of Trump’s tax cuts to give Trump a win. But it will come at a cost. Maybe the extension of Obamacare or child tax credits. Regardless, business as usual wrt ever growing deficits.
Funny how these long counts magically break one way every time.