Key inflation-adjusted orders are in sustained down trends.
The Census Department Advance Report on Durable Goods shows another drop in July.
New Orders
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion.
- This followed a 9.4 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent.
- Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent.
- Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $10.9 billion or 9.7 percent to $101.7 billion.
Shipments
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up eight consecutive months, increased $4.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $307.5 billion.
- This followed a 0.7 percent June increase.
- Transportation equipment, up seven of the last eight months, led the increase, $2.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $101.5 billion.
Month-Over-Month Nondefence Aircraft Orders
- March: +158.5 percent
- April: -51.6 percent
- May: +231.6 percent
- June: -52.7 percent
- July: -32.7 percent
Aircraft orders have very long lead times and will not impact GDP any time soon.
Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders
Nondurable goods are not part of the advance report. Those numbers are through June 2025.
Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders Change Since January
- Durable Goods: 4.0 percent
- Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft: 3.1 percent
- Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft and Defense: 2.4 percent
- Nondurable (through June): -1.0 percent
- Durable Goods Excluding Transportation (not shown): 2.2 percent
Economists often report on durable goods excluding transportation to smooth the volatility of aircraft orders. But that measure also strips out autos.
The above numbers, other than nondurable, look pretty good. However, those numbers do not include inflation.
Real Inflation-Adjusted Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders
Real Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders Change Since January
- Durable Goods: 6.2 percent
- Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft: 2.2 percent
- Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft and Defense: 0.9 percent
- Nondurable (through June): -1.7 percent
Aircraft orders and defense spending are padding durable goods new orders.
Real durable goods new orders excluding nondefense aircraft and defense are only up 0.9 percent for the first seven months of the year.
Real nondurable goods orders are down 1.7 percent for the first half of 2025.
What appears to be a good set of numbers at first glance actually represents sustained weakening. Note the yellow and red lines in the above chart.
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The Fed Chases Its Tail Again
Many years late, the Fed is removing some Bernanke-installed policy nonsense.
Yet, the Fed retains a 2 percent inflation target without knowing how to measure that 2 percent. And it holds on to disproved Phillips Curve and inflation expectation theories.
The Fed ‘s monetary framework remains seriously flawed.
OT: another crisis averted…
”New York — After days of intense backlash, most recently from President Donald Trump, Cracker Barrel is scrapping its new minimalist logo.”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/26/business/cracker-barrel-old-logo
I THANK TRUMP FOR HIS ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
It’s just a matter of time before every private business policy decision has to be reviewed and approved by a Trump-appointed loyalist bureaucrat. The freedom is so thick you can taste it — thanks MAGA!
Never have humans voted away their freedoms so willingly
If you want Trump, your president worrying about Cracker Barrel logos you are insane. I want him to fix the economy and dump Israel aid and Ukraine aid.
But the GOP snowflakes are triggered, won’t you help me find them their safe space where nobody can molest them?
Millions of dollars: since 2022 we spend less $ on durable goods, ex defense and civilian aircrafts, and on nondurable goods, despite tariffs that might have “caused” higher prices. For decades, during the globalization era, non essential goods rose until 2019. They plunged in 2020 and jumped to a lower high, below 2019 high. We buy less houses for cash or for 20% down. The RE spike is behind us.
But with TACO threatening 200% tariffs over magnets, how much longer can trade keep going?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/trump-tariffs-china-rare-earth-magnets-exports.html
Tarrifs are going to back-fire, in general.
And 2%is an arbitrary number chosen for nonspecific reason other than it sounds good.
They need inflation but low, I’d say that number is quite carefully chosen and not arbitrary.
Well said, 100%
The Dutch Central Bank chose that 2 percent number, and the other Central Banks didn’t have a better number. Monopoly money allows you to pick a number out of the air.
They needed a positive number…because, and one is too close to zero due to rounding error.
It is a number cooked up by groupthink.
It’s supposed to match population growth.
So it should be 1.6%.
The Fed can rescue but not control much, as Mish recent post shows. To me, the dual mandate needs a deadband on employment whereby shifts in unemployment are ignored until the level exceeds, say 5%. Otherwise inflation should be the sole mandate. Employment only ticked down: no reason to suddenly ignore inflation. Inflation is devastating to people, the poor and fixed income in particular, and it increases the wealth gap rapidly.
Durable goods ex civilian aircraft and defense (brown), stuff u buy every few Qt or years : cars & parts, furniture, cell phones, tv, sporting goods…are going down since 2022, and cont down despite tariffs. Oil, which we use every day, is going down. Non essential goods were rising for decades since the 70’s/80’s until 2019.
People are buckling down for the Storm of Stupid (formerly known as the Golden Age). I see it in the newly empty store fronts downtown, and the near-empty restaurants.
Layoffs in IT and other high end industries are mounting, and it’s really difficult to find work. Pushing people to do Uber might bump car sales in a few years as they wear out their cars, assuming they can afford to replace them.
When their reserves run out, things will get ugly… which is why the military is being deployed in cities, to stamp out any hint of dissent, and hand the dissidents over to ICE for placement in concentration camps.
Arm yourselves, or be that face that the boot crushes forever. The choice is yours.
The murder rate in DC is zero in the last two weeks. Keep barking !
Don’t disagree but if Trump thinks he can control a city of 3, 4 or 5 million people with 15,000 troops, he’s poorly mistaken. We saw policy stations get overrun in a few places during the George Floyd riots. Angry armed mobs will crush any small army. As far as I understand it, in DC the national guard hasn’t been deployed to dangerous hoods, just around the tourist areas. Perhaps that’s a tell it’s all for show.
In any event, best thing to do is not be around when SHTF.
Bklyn Bridge: Al Sharpton Bridge. 5th Ave NYC ==> Obama Ave. Trump wants to occupy Chicago. Crime rate is down, Trump stay out of town. When armed mob will storm Chicago crime rate will rise.
More newsmax gibberish.
are u MPO45 lawyer. Angry mob crush small armies. bs. The Tsar was toppled. BLM didn’t topple Trump.
The Tsar’s men didn’t have the firepower available to the military today. It isn’t even close. Mobs loot because they think they can get away with it. Once (or if) they see the cost…
Are you kidding???? People want peace, stability, and predictability. 15,000 troops against the mob is more than enough. The calm will prove me right.
Worked great in Afghanistan.
Afghans recognized an occupational government. USA serfs natzo much. Amirite?? Amirite???
If local police abandon a building that isn’t equivalent to a small army fighting a wartime engagement.
Most of those millions in D.C. are going on being tax drones and not even fantasizing about engaging in urban warfare.
Not to claim the dog-and-pony show is effective or an affront to the Republic, just that what happened in 2020 wasn’t going to impede an army. What’s happening in D.C. now is closer to the drama at the end of a Police Academy movie than wartime activity.