A recession proof industry is the last industry standing.
ADP Month-Over-Month Change In Jobs by Minus Education and Health
Comments on the ADP Charts
- As with the BLS, the sum of the parts does not equal the whole. So, the second chart is best views as an approximation of an approximation what’s happening.
- I would like to see Education and Health Care as separate entities, but ADP keeps the same categories as the BLS.
- Typically, when the last industry standing is recession proof, the economy is already in recession.
Massive ADP Revisions
With its January release, ADP had massive negative revisions dating all the way back to 2010. The revisions were based off QCEW, so data should be a better representation.
The BLS had a major revision a year ago, but the BLS standard data charts do not reflect those revisions.
I correct the BLS charts using what the BLS calls “experimental” data (that is undoubtedly better than their standard data).
The ADP revision may portend another huge BLS revision.
BLS vs ADP
The BLS delayed the January Jobs Report due Friday, February 6, to Wednesday February 11 due to the partial government shutdown.
Assuming no further delays, we will have better BLS to ADP comparisons then.
Just bear in mind, the BLS does not back adjust annual revisions. It should. ADP announced it will do that going forward.
Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 50,000 with 76,000 in Negative Revisions
On January 9, I noted Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 50,000 with 76,000 in Negative Revisions
The BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million, spread out over a number of years. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.
ADP just revised its data, month-by-month. The BLS didn’t and won’t. However, BLS “experimental” data does have the annual revisions.
Thus, on a historical basis, only the BLS experimental data is worth discussing.
We get to go through this again on Wednesday, with huge stacked revisions that also will not show up in BLS standard data.
Click above link for a chart that shows the current “experimental” data.
Related Posts
February 4, 2026: ADP Payrolls Weak Again, Small Employers with 20-49 Employees Hit Hard
Witness the destruction of businesses with 20-49 employees.
February 4, 2026: Manufacturing Recovery? ADP Says Manufacturing Jobs Down 22 Straight Months
There is no manufacturing recovery.
February 5, 2026: Initial Unemployment Claims Surge, Rattling Stocks, Helping Bonds
Initial claims unexpectedly spiked to 231,000.
February 5, 2026: Challenger Job Cuts In January Highest Since 2009, Lowest January Hiring Ever
It’s more grim data to start the year.
A look at the big picture:
Healthcare and Education: Both funded and / or subsidised by bankrupt government entities. How could it be worse?
Healthcare is a lagging indicator. I expect layoffs to hit them soon l.
People will stop getting sick because we are in a recession?
People won’t stop getting sick but the US govt might not be able to continue the trillion dollar deficits that keep the many segments of the health care industry flush with money.
One more point going to war with Iran is a dumb idea we should mind our own business and invest our money here in America but I doubt the political hacks would do that. They are serving their billionaire masters.
Hard to make money selling bombs and missiles if the world is at peace. The MIC owns the Uniparty, now it wants action.
I am wondering how many Americans are out of work. My guess is 41 percent and maybe more. Labor department says 4 percent or more are unemployed but that only counts workers collecting unemployment but another 37 percent are unemployed but not getting a check. So my bet or guess is 41 percent and perhaps more are unemployed. This is the beginning of an economic collapse. While this is happening the crooked warmongers in DC are skimming billions or our dollars
trillions
Trillions yeah when u add it all up that is true
This makes little sense. U6 was north of 20% in 2009. We are not there yet.
U mean UE unemployment note department of labor considers u unemployed only if u r getting a UE check
The age distribution in the US looks more like a trapezoid. There is a triangle in the 60-80 year old range. Then there is a straight section all the way down to 20 years old. The youngest 20 years of the population forms an inverted pyramid.
Educational services in math and science would be a good career for someone to in the next 4-8 years because union rules regarding layoffs have created an inverted age distribution of employees over the past 20 years of budget stress. The challenge is finding a school district that is less likely to cut positions before senior teachers retire. Teachers with seniority are not required to retire when buyouts are offered.
There is a lot of work in the pipeline for healthcare / funeral services / retirement communities the next 20 years. Any war in the next 5-10 years, regardless of a draft, will distort the inverted pyramid into the 30-40 year old population. There is a case to be made for drafting health care personnel and sacrificing the elderly.
Without a growing population to pay off government debt, expect the economy to slow significantly.
if you half half a brain and willing to bust your balls and perhaps move to a region of usa that is prospering at the time, the past 80 years has been no problem. not even during the 70s, or panic of 2008. hell all the dudes i knew from nyc in 70s that wanted work headed to TX for the oil patch……….the immigrant dudes i lived with past 5 years in brooklyn all work 24/7. most native born amerikans are such whining little cunts. expect jobs to come to them in bumbfuck usa.
What they get for their pay isn’t worth the effort demanded. It’s always been rough for young inexperienced people starting out, but it’s gotten a lot harder.
I have a cushy job, get paid great, but under it all is the knowledge that all that work contributes to is making some rich prick richer.
In the USA the best jobs in the Legal area.
Americans are getting older and need more healthcare. And the AMA, AHA, Big Pharma and Big Insurance own Congress and the President. So there is zero federal effort to increase productivity in the field. It is sucking all the oxygen out of the rest of the economy. But at least the President is posting racist memes on social media! We are so lucky dumb*sses can vote!
why not let the amerikan dumbfucks get 3/5 of a vote, cast by their employer. whether big companies or government or plumbers…..for their assistants………..
I just came up with a 2026 and 2028 platform for uniparty. why not let the
owners get ONE vote. And can cast the 3/5 vote for their employees. Let’s make amerika really great again.
The gov/med/edu socialized monopoly cartels continue growing. The rest….oh well…..
Countries are pouring trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars into the US economy. Trump is creating millions, and millions, and millions of jobs every month. We deport all the immigrants so we will hire robots to do those jobs. I saw one robot cleaning my hotel room the other day. And my nursing home has millions and millions and millions of robots waiting to do the work. Everything is great. (We live in a simulation and this is how it is in my world:) 🙂
Ai is gonna kill a bunch of jobs Americans want to do. Lucky there will be openings in the jobs Americans would not do. Maybe thats part of the plan
A robot once bit my sister.
One of my local systems is featured in a local newspaper story as having to cut staff due to significantly fewer students in recent years. This is due to people have less ids, high costs of living here in CA and immigration crackdowns.
Universities are suffering due to reductions in foreign enrollments, which are usually priced at full list.
So I think education may not be a real growth area.
And I remain on record that AI will be decimating medical jobs over the next 2-4 years.
Lol – you should watch the movie “Prometheus”.
Well ai can wipe butts and such. May kill the paperwork side of things.
Anecdotally there are still plenty of unfilled positions in tech. We are seeing people leave due to the AI hardware boom and having to backfill what we have lost. The reason is we are benefiting from the boom in storage due to AI. Nvidia has asked us to offload their GPU of storage tasks thus we are getting started ona new design that has an even larger market than the current one. The AI boom is not a bubble because it is increasing productivity. It will be cause job loss unless you are one of the companies actually AI is dependent on. Semiconductors continues to boom in the right areas. It’s even lifting up the poor semis like Intel.
Always gonna need a human on the Heip Desk.
No bots will want to do that.
The Fed’s balance sheet is up by $80 billion since Dec 3rd.
So yes, QE is starting again…
what do you think the off the books, CIA balance sheet is? i’m still amazed how many don’t understand the NYFED is privately owned. the DC fed is quasi fed and public controlled. the NYFED is in business for only one reason. the FED has only one mandate. it ain’t currency propriety or inflation or unemployment……..that’s all poppycock. only reason is to keep the owners, of the FEDNY in high cotton. as my pals in charleston SC say.
thanks for pointing that out……….i always look at fed and M1 too. no need to print. just hit the computer cursor…….presto we have more currency in the empire.
Trump’s suing the IRS for 10 billion, and will want more.
I have to think almost all of the Education and Health Services job bucket consists of Healthcare, that seems to be the field that is growing at a very fast rate. Education jobs may well be declining, along with the number of students attending schools at all levels.