What started the crypto winter? Here are eight ideas.
Crypto Winter Theories
The Wall Street Journal reports A New Crypto Winter Is Here and Even the Biggest Bulls Aren’t Certain Why
Bitcoin just suffered its largest weekly decline in more than three years. But the worst part for some of crypto’s permabulls is that they aren’t sure what exactly caused the crash.
“There was no smoking gun,” said Michael Novogratz, who runs Galaxy Digital, a crypto merchant-banking and trading firm.
For much of last year, crypto was in ascendance. President Trump’s return to the White House ushered in a new era for digital assets, which continued to gain acceptance among individual investors and legitimacy on Wall Street. As bitcoin and other popular tokens touched record highs, it seemed as though the market’s best days always lay ahead.
This time, there is no clear consensus. “If you ask five experts, you’ll get five explanations,” said Anthony Scaramucci, who served for 11 days as communications director during Trump’s first term and is among the best-known crypto bulls at his firm, SkyBridge Capital.
Five WSJ Reasons
1) New shiny objects
There is no shortage of other markets for traders to make audacious bets, said Pompliano, the CEO of ProCap Financial. Prediction markets, gold, silver, artificial intelligence and so-called meme stocks are all vying for their attention of late, drawing eyes away from crypto.“It used to be that bitcoin was the consensus view where asymmetry existed,” Pompliano said. “Now you have AI, prediction markets…many other areas where people can go and they can speculate.”
2) More supply
Wall Street has sought to capitalize on crypto’s popularity by launching a growing array of exchange-traded funds and derivatives linked to bitcoin and other popular tokens. Their proliferation might not affect the sheer number of bitcoins, ethers and other tokens, but some investors thought their arrival has dented bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce asset.Bitcoin’s main appeal has always been its limited supply of 21 million coins. By launching ETFs and complex derivatives, Wall Street has enabled investors to bet on the price of bitcoin without needing to buy or hold the actual coins, some analysts said.
3) New sheriff
Other investors suspected that Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, might be bringing down crypto prices.Warsh, they said, is seen as more hawkish on interest rates as a tool to tame inflation, and more supportive of a stronger U.S. dollar. Higher rates and a stronger dollar are conditions that typically hurt some alternative assets, such as gold and crypto, making them less attractive to investors. And this past week, the WSJ Dollar Index edged up 0.4%.
Still, Warsh and the Fed are expected to cut rates this year, not raise them. And Warsh has warmed to bitcoin. He famously dubbed the digital currency a “policeman for policy,” saying in a TV interview that bitcoin’s price can inform policymakers when they are doing things right and wrong.
4) Clouded clarity
After Trump signed into law the Genius Act last year, paving the path for stablecoins—digital assets pegged to fiat currencies like the dollar—the industry turned its attention to the next important piece of legislation: the Clarity Act. This bill would create a clear regulatory framework for the burgeoning industry.Congress appeared on the cusp of moving the bill ahead when a dispute between crypto exchanges and traditional banks stalled that momentum. Without this measure, many financial firms are hesitant to integrate digital assets into their offerings. And unless a compromise is reached, the dust-up might deny the crypto market a catalyst that could have extended the rally.
5) Profit-taking
Novogratz and some other investors thought much of the selloff was driven by investors eager to lock in gains they collected when bitcoin, ether and other digital tokens rallied in the midst of the “euphoria” of Trump’s election in 2024 and pledge to make the U.S. the world’s crypto capital.And those gains were indeed spectacular. Bitcoin, for one, rocketed around 80% from Election Day until early October of last year.
Sharp selloffs are hardly unusual in crypto, of course. They are so regular, in fact, that investors give them a name—crypto winter—that befits the belief that these downturns are as predictable as the seasons.
Some analysts believe this crypto winter could thaw faster than those of the past. No key companies have collapsed or faced allegations, revelations that have elicited crises of confidence in past crashes.
Dismiss All But One
Yes, there is profit taking, but profit taking does not start bear markets.
The more supply theory is valid. Leverage blew up and unwound.
The Journal missed Bitcoin whales selling. Definitely that’s a factor.
The Journal missed the key idea on the Fed Warsh theory. The threat of Warsh is not higher interest rates or fewer cuts, but the Warsh’s desire to reverse QE.
Federal Regime Change
John Mauldin discusses Warsh in Federal Regime Change
Balance Sheet Bloat
In 2008, Kevin Warsh was a Fed governor during the Great Financial Crisis. He initially approved of quantitative easing as an emergency policy. He left the board when QE went from emergency policy to normal policy. He’s since been highly critical of the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, arguing it is an economic distortion that should be reduced faster.
Warsh said this in a November 2025 Wall Street Journal column:
“The Fed’s bloated balance sheet, designed to support the biggest firms in a bygone crisis era, can be reduced significantly. That largesse can be redeployed in the form of lower interest rates to support households and small and medium-size businesses.”
Gavekal’s Will Denyer thinks other officials will agree with Warsh on this point.
“Arguably, current Fed policymakers have already cooled on the use of QE. They are all shaped by their experience of the last crisis. Their likely takeaway from the Covid-19 shock is that aggressive fiscal and monetary action can produce a V-shaped recovery, which is positive, but allowing that stimulus to persist long after the recovery begins can cause inflation to overshoot. As a result, the average Fed policymaker probably already shares some version of Warsh’s view that QE and other forms of stimulus are appropriate during emergencies, not afterward.”
We can debate whether or not Warsh will succeed. Mauldin notes “The problem here is that QE is proving almost impossible to unwind.”
What’s not debatable is balance sheet reduction is a liquidity drain, and neither Bitcoin nor the stock market likes liquidity drains.
So add Warsh to the mix, but not as presented by the WSJ and others.
Programmable Money Theory
Money Theory and Synthetic Supply of Bitcoin
So here’s the issue you get influencers like this guy have a quarter million followers and they claim they don’t know why it is declining… it’s because they don’t understand basic mechanics of price discovery. They don’t understand that the marginal buyers or the float determines price they think the onchain bitcoin is that is the price discovery.
Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market.
This is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin. This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated. The original premise that no longer exists Bitcoin’s entire valuation logic was built on finite supply (21M) and inability to be rehypothecated.
That died the moment: •Cash-settled futures •Perpetual swaps •Options •ETFs •Prime broker lending •Wrapped BTC •Total return swaps were layered on top of the chain.
From that moment forward: Bitcoin supply became theoretically infinite. Not on-chain in price discovery.
The metric that explains the collapse Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR) Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce — and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market.
Why Wall Street can now “trade against” Bitcoin They do exactly what they’ve done in every commodity market: 1.Create unlimited paper BTC 2.Short into rallies 3.Force liquidations 4.Cover lower 5.Repeat They are not “betting” — they are manufacturing inventory. The same 1 BTC can now support: •An ETF unit •A futures contract •A perpetual swap •An options delta •A broker loan •A structured note All at once. That is six claims on one coin. That is not a market. That is a fractional reserve price system.
Even if paper bitcoin was not involved, at some point whales were bound to sell. The energy to mine is not unlimited. Someone would want to cash out.
The ETFs, even unlevered, were the final straw. Expecting those who got in late to HODL is now a proven flawed idea.
Miners Unplugging Equipment
Greater Fool Theory
The market finally ran out of greater fools.
The Journal missed that one too.
And some people even believe they are playing the greater fools theory. Those who do will get out on technical breaks.
Technical Theory
I discussed the technical and fundamental aspects of the selloff in Bitcoin Plunge Steepens, Down 48 Percent from January 2025. Why?
Bitcoin Bounce Where?
The weekly support line was 75,000 and we smashed through that as expected.
The next support is a consolidation zone 50,000 to 55,000. Then it’s 40,000 followed by 25,000 and 15,000.
I discussed the E-Wave count in the above link. The daily count is debatable. But the weekly chart is clear.
Bitcoin has been in a wave 3 down. There rates to be a correction then further down.
The head-and-shoulder pattern offers a similar take. The implied target is 25,000.
Then there is Saylor’s MSTR leveraged fund. It’s blowing up. I also discuss Saylor in the above link.
I suspect he is a minor player in this, assuming his statements that he is not impacted into forced selling unless Bitcoin drops to 8,000 or so.
I don’t know if that is accurate but I do know the market likes to test arrogance and Saylor has more than an ample supply.
“If people knew what I know Bitcoin would go to $10 million tomorrow,” said Saylor.
Q: Hmm. If it’s that easy, why doesn’t Saylor just tell us what he knows so we will know too, and Bitcoin will go to 10 million?
A: Saylor is an arrogant charlatan who doesn’t know a damn thing.
He’s also a late convert, snake oil preacher who is underwater on Bitcoin despite buying at 11,000.
Saylor borrowed billions of dollars to buy Bitcoin. And as the price rose, he took on more and more debt to buy more.
Ten Key Points
- The bitcoin “Store of Value” trade has fundamentally broken in two. Unlike gold, which is mined with energy, but then remains “gold” regardless of how much mining energy is expended, bitcoin requires continual energy expenditure to maintain the bitcoin network.
- Maintaining a digital ledger requires a constant injection of ordered energy.
- The miners are currently doing the same amount of work for 27% less revenue. They have billions in sunk capex, and as long as bitcoin remains above the marginal cash cost of mining (~$85K), they will keep mining. This, in itself, is nothing new. It has always been the case that mining has periods of unprofitability.
- The difference this time is that bitcoin miners are no longer using “surplus” energy.
- AI datacenters pay 3-4x the revenue per kilowatt as bitcoin mining — and the miners are switching.
- Another “halving” in 2028 will reduce revenue per hash by 50% unless the bitcoin price increases by 100%.
- The “Passive Bid” Has Diminished. For two years, the ETF complex provided a mindless, price-agnostic bid for bitcoin. That tap has slowed radically, and now bitcoin must find a new untapped bid.
- Absent endogenous cash flows (e.g. earnings, transaction fee share, dividends), bitcoin has no stabilizing feedback loop—only reflexive ones. Further declines do not summon value buyers; they merely test the resilience of belief.
- Bitcoin requires a massive, continuous calorie burn (electricity) just to prevent the network from collapsing. As energy prices rise (thanks to AI and the exhaustion of the 2010s surplus), the cost to maintain your “digital gold” rises.
- Gold is chemically inert. It sits in a vault. Its maintenance cost is effectively zero and largely unaffected by existing value.
In case you missed it, please see my January 11 post Did Bitcoin “Digital Gold” Just Become Fool’s Gold?
Bitcoin miners have better things to do than mine Bitcoin.
If miners go offline, the hash rate drops and demand for Bitcoin drops. See the article for 5 more points and further discussion.
Add to that whales are bailing. Who exactly are the buyers when whales sell?
Synopsis
- Fundamental: Miners have better things to do than mine Bitcoin
- Technical: The E-Wave pattern is ominous
- Technical: A standard technical head and shoulders pattern is ominous
- Fundamental: Warsh wants to roll back QE and that removes liquidity
- Fundamental: Potential for more whale selling
- Fundamental: Fear
- Fundamental and Technical: Bianco’s Software thesis
- Fundamental: Saylor – Will the market test Saylor? Is his stop out point higher than what he says?
Whale Selling and Fear
Bitcoin classic theory is hold forever. But what if you have already made a billion dollars, 100 million, or even 1 million dollars?
Points 2, 3, 5, and 6 all fit together.
If you bought early, do you really want to go through another crypto winter with average drawdowns over 80 percent?
Perhaps you do if you are up $10,000. But what if you are a whale up $10 million or $100 million?
What if you are up $1 million and Bitcoin is now over 50 percent of your account.
The higher Bitcoin goes the more people have to fear.
The ETFs and leveraged ETFs come into play. Selling begets selling, especially from the Johnny-come-latelies.
We can now put this together can’t we?
What Happened in Eight Points
- Supply of greater fools ran out
- Technical break
- Selling begets selling
- Miners have better things to do with their money
- Warsh wants to remove liquidity
- Whales have made so much money they finally start dumping
- Bitcoin got so high that non-whales are fearful
- Those following technicals want out too
That is the approximate order. But I can sum it up in two words.
Q: What Happened?
A: Psychology Changed.
That’s it.
This is quite similar to the housing bubble. People went from standing in lines out the door and around the corner for the right to enter a lottery to buy a Florida condo, to no interest at all.
That happened in less than a week.
How Low Will Bitcoin Go?
I don’t know and nobody else does either. The bottom callers are all charlatans.
But I do know the technical pattern is ominous. And I also know the fundamentals suck as well.
Perhaps you dispute the points I have made. But, if you are sitting on huge profits, do you really want to sit through another crypto bear market?
That’s what every bull and whale has to answer. But this time, it’s not just the true believers in play. It’s leveraged technical players going along for the ride.
It’s also whales, who even if they still believe, now wonder if enough is enough.
It’s bitcoin miners that have better things to do with there money.
It’s wondering where the next pool of greater fools will come from.
I don’t believe we have seen panic yet. Certainly the drawdown so far is not close to the average crypto winter yet.
If significant money is involved, to hold now is one big roll of the dice where not just one thing I said above has to be wrong, but nearly all of it.
The bitcoin ETF interpretation is correct. Bitcoin price was $50 when it began to trade on ETFs.
Notice the similarities between bitcoin ETFs and collateralized mortgage obligations of the 2007 liquidity crisis.
Both were developed by the brokerage industry during a extended period of Fed low interest rates, where an abundance of liquidity was chasing higher rates of return.
Both are a collection of worthless assets traded at significant margins. CDOs were in such high demand that Catherine Austin Fitts hypothesized some tranches contained only a few low quality mortgages, and the remainder was empty. There were more mortgages in some cities than homes. With bitcoin there isn’t a pretense of an actual hard asset. Yet, many cities are funding their pensions with bitcoin in search of yields to keep up with inflation. The same happened to pension plans that were allowed to buy CMOs because of false AAA ratings.
Both have claimed a complex foundation. Bitcoin is secured by an elaborate, expensive computer system. Yet, hundreds of different meme coins are developed every year, each with their own expensive security computer. CDOs tranches were put together with a sophisticated accounting process, that brokers argued couldn’t be forensically audited by mere mortal accountants. With today’s AI it wouldn’t be difficult to open any CMO.
CMOs were traded at 40 to 1 options that led to record high margin debt, at that time. But, today’s profusion of liquidity, partly produced by digital monopoly money, has pushed margin debt to a record peak. Even though options are limited to 2 to 1 margins.
“Bitcoin is secured by an elaborate, expensive computer system. Yet, hundreds of different meme coins are developed every year, each with their own expensive security computer.”
This is wrong. Bitcoin is secured by the Bitcoin network, which is a decentralized system of tens or hundreds of thousands of individual computers around the world. The number of active miners depends on the financial incentives of the network at any given point in time. Mining activity scales up or down because of the difficulty adjustment. There is no centralized elaborate supercomputer sitting in a basement somewhere. Even if 95% of the miners shut off, the network is still unhackable.
Also, the “hundreds of different meme coins” are secured by proof of stake systems, not a decentralized proof of work network. They are not expensive to maintain precisely because they are more centralized.
Fundamentals and technicals agree that BTC has a strong support at $0.
Basically there are two world views on Bitcoin. Under one world view, Bitcoin was never going to succeed and will ultimately go to zero. Under the second world view, Bitcoin will go through a long capitalization phase, with wild price swings along the way — higher highs and higher lows through every bull and bear cycle. Which is correct?
Mish has long been a believer in the first world view, and it is clear from this post that his position has not changed. I still remember Mish’s post after the ETFs were approved. That was when Bitcoin was at about $38k. He said then: Let’s wait and see. And then through the bull market he fell mostly silent, hardly mentioning Bitcoin at all. But now that we are back in a bear market, I expect he will go back to mentioning Bitcoin all the time. We have seen an almost 50% drawdown, so he is taking his victory lap. But Bitcoin is still almost twice as high as it was when a skeptical Mish said: Let’s wait and see.
For all the naysayers: What can you point to in this bear market that is any different from prior bear markets? This is following the historical pattern. If it continues on the same course, the question is where the bottom will be before it finds a base and then moved into a new uptrend.
Do you really think Bitcoin is going away? Many will resoundingly answer: “Absolutely yes!” — just like the hordes who pronounced Bitcoin dead in 2022, 2018 and 2014. But in a word of AI agents, and AI agent swarms attacking the legacy banking system, which do you think will be more resilient? Bitcoin or JP Morgan Chase?
Pop quiz: How will millions (or billions) of AI agents execute economic transactions in the digital economy?
(a) ACH transfers in the legacy AML/KYC banking system
(b) Silver bars
(c) Federal Reserve Notes
(d) Gold coins
(e) Digital currencies
Yes.
Bitcoin has already been declared dead more times than any asset in human history
What caused the decline? Maximum Fractal Growth of crypto’s for a large time cycle within the longer asset debt system’s time cycle. In Oct 2025 GBTC, ETF proxy for Bitcoin reached its 41/83 month :: x/2x maximum fractal valuation growth under the umbrella of the SPX and global equities 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x maximum growth. Peak asset class valuations within the asset-debt system have been stretched thru financial engineering, 10 trillion dollars of corporate buy-backs, outsourcing of manufacturing to foreign labor for lower cost and higher American corporate profit, 2009 QE bail-out money printing to banking and financial institutions, and 15-11% GDP deficit COVID spending in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with low interest rate mortgage-backed securities and out right money printing to sway the 2020 election with citizens, many who received checks (with the then president’s signature) greater than their real salaries.
The global peak of the system’s composite assets’ valuations has already occurred.
There may be additional peaks in composite equities from rotational money, but the SPX 13/33 year 1982 cycle will end in a mighty collapse of non sovereign debt asset valuations.
John Paulson is one of the brightest traders on the planet and he thinks BTC is worthless. Twenty years in, yet Bitcoin has no bona-fide, non-criminal application. At least in 2010 you could buy a pizza with it.The metals rally made investors remember that there already is a time honored alternative to fiat, and now the selloff in metals has accentuated the intrinsic worthlessness of crypto.
Bitcoins will always retain their inherent value as a collection of numbers.
Folks buy these number collections in the hope they can sell them to a greater fool for more than their purchase price.
You are misreading what happened over the last 2 weeks. The reason crypto are down is because of the precious metal and the debasement narrative. The silver and gold craze was led by retail investors using their crypto leverage. When silver and gold crashed margin calls were executed and the crypto were sold. Futures and perpetual on crypto exchange and criminally expensive, you have to hold to make money any speculation results in sever financial losses. The liquidation of the crypto led to an avalanche and the bitcoin is worth nothing narrative were gloating, amplifying the move. We’ve reached a bottom and even if we don’t regain the highs of 2025, bitcoin will retrace.
When it comes to programmable coins they should be viewed as startups in a new tech environment. People have been far too dismissive of the underlying tech that powers the programmable coins, combined with AI agents they can become an essential part of the future infrastructure. So seeing the tokens as micro shares that can be freely exchanged/traded is not a negative, it’s just an innovation in startup financing. So again I would not be too quick to claim the end of crypto. The frenzy of the last few years should abate, like the dotcom boom needed the 2000 reset.
It is too bad so many people misunderstand the technology that underpins blockchains.Especially programmable ones.We have now reach the point where layer 1 blockchain are fast enough to deliver on the early promises of the tech.
Trying to offer a different perspective than the common narratives that feel more like pop culture than a reflection of the tech innovation actually taking place.
my 0.02 cents
Long said it was digital garbage. Then, i’m older and it all just appears totally stupid to me. And borrow billions to buy more? LOL! When is enough, enough? I hope it goes to zero.
The central banks worldwide are buying gold as a store of value, not bitcoin.
So the 4 cycle kicks in again and the media losses it’s mind. Bitcoin is dead articles appear again . I would like to remind everyone that Bitcoin usually bottoms when mish is producing Bitcoin death articles at this sort of daily density. The bottom should be in anywhere between now and October, and it could go as low as 40k then we start a new cycle from the lows. Probably 200k peak after the next halfing.
Sounds like a great time for you to buy more!
Everybody has one goal – BUY LOW SELL HIGH.
Once you’ve bought you’re sitting duck in the market.
You can’t buy things generally but to wait till the price goes up.
You have to dance along the manipulator, Whale.
Most investors suffer cos nobody know when the peak is and sell
when the margin call kicks in.
We should not debate whether offense should be taken of Obama, or Trump being projected as an Ape or Lion. . We should object that Lions and apes were projected as being Obama or Trump.
QE has returned and the Fed is no longer draining liquidity. Since Dec 3rd they have increased the balance sheet by $80 billion.
Just sayin…
Probably initiated by all those bad CRE loans US banks have on their books.
Dumped my USD and midway through dumping most of my stocks.
Meltdown is on the way.
Indeed, the price of Bitcoin creation is going up and the value is going down.
Healthcare represents 23% of our GDP. Like seriously, vacations ought to represent 23% of our GDP. Our Boomer Dream has come true. All my Boomer friends ever talk talk about their infirmities, Damn what happened to your Dreams. Go on vacation for Christs sake. By the way the so called Greatest Nation on Earth has the lowest vacation benefits on the planet. hoo rah USMC Gommer Pyle
usa spends 2x per capita as any g7 country. w/ at best average results!
40% of ppl is obese
it is big business
Whats the use of all these cryptos?Probably a storage of excess liquidity to contain partly inflation.
If excess liquidity is disapearing,then the cryptos are useless.
=Whats the use of all these cryptos?Probably a storage of excess liquidity t
please !!! it is more simple
trading places , movie 1983
watch it
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I sold over $1.3 million in Bitcoin/ GBTC in 2025. Was I a baby whale? I’m now patiently waiting for sub $35k to buy in again.
bs
And watch it fall to 1k
Since Bitcoin ETFs came out, Wall Street like Anthony Scarmucci and Bank of America have been recommending up to 5% of assets in Bitcoin.
Doesn’t trump and his family members hold a large amount of bitcoins and other related “non-securities?” If so, there will probably government support.
Eric Trump is a controlling shareholder of American Bitcoin Company.
One other point about fundamentals.
For other commodities there is a basic flow of supply and demand.
Think barley, wheat, oil, copper, silver, water.
You could state that this does not hold for dollars or gold or art.
But dollars are required to settle debts and tax bills; for gold there is jewelry demand; and people have always been willing to buy art at premia.
Nobody has a fundamental need for bitcoins.
This doesn’t explain the price.
But speculation for the price of Bitcoin is a different type of animal than all the others.
You could set up an exchange for the pricing of rare and beautiful ice crystals, ice crystals that melt.
ha ha ha. dad invested in the 80s, in a VC deal from his wall street address…… they hauled an iceberg from alaska to japan. the japanese were taking over the world and were spending like drunk sailors. they were paying huge money to put million year old ice cubes into their drinks in tokyo. i think it was called crystal water…….ha haha. payed out if my memory served.
sign me up
It will take some time but the trash has been exposed. I think it will take a good 7 years more to take it out. Life will be better in 2033.
real estate seems to be the real 800lb gorilla usually. up 15 or so years and down 5 or so years give or take a few years……..cycles…….last high was about 20 years ago, and last trough was about 2011, about 15 years ago. before that the highs about 2008, 1988, 1968, 1948, 1928……roughly give or take a few years. seems like we topped out past year or two or three depending on market in r/e…………..just a thought.
He’s since been highly critical of the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, arguing it is an economic distortion that should be reduced faster.
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another bs!
USA congress voted for bloated balance sheet. it is not FED;s money to bloat or shrink!
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only purpose of so called INDEPENDENT FED/central banks to off load monetary decisions from people who are voted in on unelected ones !
and later say:
see? he-she is independent ,IT IS NOT my fault that is debt is 100 trln,
and it takes 50% of revenues to serve debt.
alx
exactly correct. the fed in business to keep the fedresNY in high cotton and their owners the wall street banks alive and pumped with blood……not matter what. all the other rubbish is pure bs
dumb and basic math………we have had a 15 trillion increase in M1 since covid. let’s say 140million households in usa. that’s an increase of over 100,000 USD per household. not sure what it means except that’s a colossal amount of devalue of the currency. i’m convinced we will all be billionaires in the next decade. saw this personally from the inside of boardrooms of oligarch oil companies…….when the USSR collapsed and ruble went worthless………and to add insult to injury by 1998 they devalued it again 500%. amerikans are delusional if they think that shit cannot happen to our empire. just a friendly reminder to mish readers………….been there, done that.
Warsh, they said, is seen as more hawkish on interest rates as a tool to tame inflation, and more supportive of a stronger U.S. dollar. Higher rates and a stronger dollar are conditions that typically hurt some alternative assets, such as gold and crypto
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i like that they still PUBLISH THIS BS.
trump doesn’t like Powell and high rates ,. but same time somehow TRUMP BRINGS NEW CHAIRMAN who is touted as more hawkish / ANTI INFLATION!
jesus. no wonder mass media is dying from its own bs, see WP!
alx
collectively the amerikan people seemed to have had their cherries popped the 21st cntury since 9.11.01. kind of like in ussr in the 70s and 80s. the people knew it was all BS coming out of moscow leadership and government……..
as russian i think USA ppl is more smart than USSR ppl . in 1980xx
or any time period after 1917
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dont think even in 1989 somebody suspected that USSR would be broken
up in 2 years in pieces.
NOBODY KNEW ANYTHING ABOUT USSR IN THAT TIME.
I mean economy, money, etc
There’s only one way to behave with such a pile of debt:bring down the value of the dollar.
This is what Powell did by bringing down the rates even with some GDP growth.
So Powell was not hawkish this is just a legend.He did the only way possible,Warsh will do the same.
Bitcoin’s main appeal has always been its limited supply of 21 million coins. By launching ETFs and complex derivatives, Wall Street has enabled investors to bet on the price of bitcoin without needing to buy or hold the actual coins, some analysts said.
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hahah! ahahah !!! ahahah!! ahhahahah!!!!!!
that was the goal!
CONVINCE SUCKERS there are only 21 mil of this bs. but in reality it is not!
great point. glad it worked for the darpa boys for CIA use,,,,,and been fun. it’s not going away. suckers born everyday. ask PT barnum and donny trump. like the grateful dead song……
Who is going to be able to verify the real number of bitcoins already mined?Nobody!
How do we know that the Blockchain is totally secure?We can’t,we just repeat what we hear!
Pompliano is another mo11ron who tries to look smart after fact…
there are hundreds of such ones on each corner.. each day on wall street
price is dime per dozen!
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hey buddy, SHOW US YOUR TRADING RECORD…… last 5 10 20 years
ha ha ha. true.
Why Would Bitcoin Be Any Different Than Silver
It’s Just Got to be heavily heavily manipulated
Honest question, What makes anyone think JPMorgan Chase employees are not doing the Same Exact Thing with Bitcoin, that they did with Silver
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The banks often get away with manipulation and that is with Silver – which is actually a dual commodity meaning Money but also Use it is needed in many industries – why would it be different in bitcoin which has not other use
JPMorgan Chase — By far the largest penalty, the bank paid approximately $920 million in 2020 (the record-high CFTC settlement for spoofing and manipulation). This covered years of manipulative trading (2008–2016) in precious metals futures, including silver, using spoofing tactics to influence prices. JPMorgan admitted wrongdoing, and some of its traders faced criminal convictions and prison time.
Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) — Fined around $127 million in 2020 by the CFTC and DOJ for spoofing, attempted manipulation, and false statements related to precious metals futures (including silver and gold) over more than eight years. This included a significant criminal penalty component.
HSBC — Paid roughly $76–77 million across multiple actions (e.g., 2018 and later enforcement, including a 2023 penalty), for spoofing in precious metals futures markets spanning 2011–2020.
great point sir. so easy to manipulate computer cursor currency. have faith. what could go wrong ? /sarc
1) New shiny objects
There is no shortage of other markets for traders to make audacious bets, said Pompliano, the CEO of ProCap Financial. Prediction markets, gold, silver, artificial intelligence and so-called meme stocks are all vying for their attention of late, drawing eyes away from crypto.
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gold? new shiny object???
MORON! Pompliano IS !
alx
i’ll get back to shorting MSTR when she stops going up past day or so………..look at this chart kids. no wonder a benjamin 100usd is bupkiss in 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
UNSUBSCRIBE ME.
I do not know why you would want to unsuscribe
effectively the same thing the banks did to silver – which has been complained about and pointed out for years and years – including heavy fines on some of the banks
Just 3 examples below
The banks often get away with it and that is with Silver – which is actually a dual commodity meaning Money but also Use it is needed in many industries – why would it be different in bitcoin which has not other use
JPMorgan Chase — By far the largest penalty, the bank paid approximately $920 million in 2020 (the record-high CFTC settlement for spoofing and manipulation). This covered years of manipulative trading (2008–2016) in precious metals futures, including silver, using spoofing tactics to influence prices. JPMorgan admitted wrongdoing, and some of its traders faced criminal convictions and prison time.
Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) — Fined around $127 million in 2020 by the CFTC and DOJ for spoofing, attempted manipulation, and false statements related to precious metals futures (including silver and gold) over more than eight years. This included a significant criminal penalty component.
HSBC — Paid roughly $76–77 million across multiple actions (e.g., 2018 and later enforcement, including a 2023 penalty), for spoofing in precious metals futures markets spanning 2011–2020.
bitcoin is a darpa invention, to make it easier for CIA to pay operators around the globe……….i’m 100% certain on this, for a number of reasons. i knew about bitcoin the first months it went “live”………to the public, by guys running one of the original “marketplaces”……….and know very well a few black ops off the books CIA operators who confirmed this. it’s like the us highways, the manhattan project…..developed by us gov for warfare/defense……..but they knew also they had very legit and applicable commercial uses. us highways to move nukes and armaments around our continent………but they also knew families with station wagons and commercial trucks would use it. same with bitcoin. nothing conspiratorial. just what it is.
The Internet also, I think.
100%. we were using DARPANET in 1980s at columbia u and also at nasa lab at cuny hunter, i studied at……….and also at NASA goddard space lab i worked at……..in 80s. first time we were at columbia looking at archives at stanford it was like the devil’s work………………fun stuff. i was doing AI in 80s too. with satellite data searching for oil, whale pods, weed farms in norcal…………
Here’s the thing: Bitcoin is an interesting idea, taken to an extreme limit. Even at $20,000 US dollars for one digital “coin”, I am not sure the risk/reward is right. I have a small “Luckenbooth” brooch, made in Scotland back in the 1960’s. It’s made of gold. It’s a copy of a little artifact Mary Queen of Scots supposedly gave to her lover, Lord Darnell or something like that. Gold retains it’s value, even if the infrastructure of the world implodes. Gold is nice. It is real. Much of our world is fake. Gold is now easy to check, for purity, with XRF machines. Bitcoin requires a massive infrastructure to stay “real”. I like the idea of a non-fiat currency, but history suggests it’s gold and silver. And history further suggests that real wealth is land.
To keep land, you need a good army. Will your soldiers take bitcoin? Or will they want silver and gold? I think you want hard coins to pay your soldiers, and good weapons to defend your land from invaders. Bitcoin is just noise.
pay them in continental dollars or confederate dollars. you can find some dumb ass every century to kill other and themselves for paper confetti………
American Revolutionary soldiers got paid very little, suggesting patriotism was involved. Lincoln’s War was fought to a significant degree with slave (conscripted) armies. But I cannot disagree with your main thrust that it is too easy to get men to fight.
In (real) Gold We Trust.
i always check the actual one ounce gold price in eagles or maple leafs. not the comex or other bullshit prices of gold and silver………..the suckers prices.
my copper one ounce coins…… have gone up 4X in past year. i have been handing them out like candy for tips about 3 or 5 per day……….no more. shit is going parabalic as the empire crumbles. i must of told about 500 people in the past decade to put half their net worth in gold or silver or copper coins in their hands……….mostly young folks 18 to 40………..some old geezers, too.
Perhaps there is a global “Bullshit Threshold” and we passed it.
I think the ‘crypto panic’ is over. It recovered before it fell below $60K and is now around $70K.
But what do I know? I’m the one who recommended people put all their life savings into $Melania meme coin last year, which in hindsight was bad financial advice because I failed to add a /s tag.
Damn you! I lost everything, and I couldn’t even afford admission to see her movie.
You’re not using a credit card to take a cash advance to buy the dip?
I maxed those on beanie babies back in the 90s. 30% interest is a harsh mistress.
=I think the ‘crypto panic’ is over. It recovered
you know what they say
SUCKER BORN EACH MINUTE!
I remember you from last year and I feel the same way I did then. If I could fly through the wires of the internet I’d light your a** up and turn you into ashes.
Look at the big picture, the whole bitcoin universe, and the total inflows and outflows
Outflows –
Constant and significant cost to maintain the blockchain
The cost and overheads of the exchanges, gas etc to use the tech.
Inflows –
Extremely trivial value added from the utility of the blockchain to do useful things such as ease fx exchange, launder money, what else do people pay for to use bitcoin?
For long term money generation inflows have to exceed outflows otherwise losers have to exceed winners. Short term people buying in can make early adopters “rich” – some can even sell out and take profits selling to new buyers, but eventually the real value to be shared out is the total inflows-outflows over the existence of the asset which for bitcoin is hugely negative.
Compare to a stock – inflows include the value added of the companies production outflows include the cost of production – inflows-outflows is positive and real wealth can be created and shared.
Real estate provides value – crops from farm land and shelter for living on. inflows exceeds outflow same with every true asset – even at worse case value is preserved.
Even gold – it has a defined once off mining cost, small maintenance costs beyond that, and small but real valuable uses as decoration and limited industrial uses – one can argue inflows approximate outflows and hence gold has been a store of value since humans started making rings and bracelets. Just don’t expect it will generate true wealth over the long term!
But bitcoin is all cost and no return so eventually losers must exceed winners in the buying and selling of it – Which you are depends on timing not productivity.
Yeah. Like storing prime numbers made of ice in your refrigerator.
Not going to happen:if you price stocks to value then most retired people go broke.
I am not a bitcoin expert. I did read some stuff from technical analyst, Mike McGlone a month ago. He expected a major correction. As much as 90% possible, with minor corrections along the way.
Maybe he is correct. Who knows.
There are over 17000 actively traded cryptocurrencies and there are over 15 million that have been created (many of which no longer exist).
Food, water, gold and ammunition? Order may vary depending upon location.
air is always first. water 2nd. food next. for survival of a human for next 15 minutes, or hours, or days……gold and guns way behind. but gold can assure you can get to clean air and water and food. guns are for action movies and war zones. avoid both.
=Mike McGlone a month ago. He expected a major correction.
did he short one ? or it was just hot air?
We’re learning more about the intel story that Gabbard tried to suppress. It’s looking like the GDS sufferers (Gabbard Derangement Syndrome) might actually be the healthy ones.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/07/nsa-foreign-intelligence-trump-whistleblower
Probable horseshit. Deep state didn’t want her in the first place. Now they’re working to oust her. According to an attorney for my anonymous source.
Take a step back. Instead of asking what caused the sell-off the last 2-3 weeks, ask what do all crypto winters have in common? It’s not events and the news. Since cycles have been exceptionally consistent, and Elliot waves have been clear, any external force would have easily being identified. While the price trajectory correlates with the Metcalfe Curve, the curve is not a force, but a reflection of consensus by participants.
The answer is emotion and sentiment individually that coalesces into herding mentality. It’s this hidden force that financial media unknowingly refers to when astonished:
“But the worst part for some of crypto’s permabulls is that they aren’t sure what exactly caused the crash.”
“There was no smoking gun,” said Michael Novogratz.
I’m quite biased, but I’ve found myself in the Peter Schiff camp. I believe Bitcoin has $0 intrinsic value, and now that efforts are underway to tokenize gold and other tangible physical stores of value, seems like all the remaining arguments for cryptocurrency fall away. I wouldn’t fault someone for making a side bet on it, alongside a basket of time-tested non-fiat stores of value, but the true believers act like a cult.
It’s literally a collection of numbers that you have dibs on. It’s like something you would’ve seen in a skit on Sesame Street.
= I believe Bitcoin has $0 intrinsic
it is more. it is already known and traded. so it is not zero
problem IS PURE 100% trading sh1it
not value in that.
I go back to my statement from the other day – easy money chasing phantom assets. Next financial crisis will ruin a lot of these crypto investors.
Too much fake wealth to go back!
Is it known at what points major retail owners currently sit at?
Because if bitcoin approaches those values, it will trigger a lot of sellers as is just human nature… which will in turn push it down into others discomfort break even zone.
Its always strange how people have no questions for why something went up ridiculously, but want intricate analysis for why the same thing went down!!
BTC intrinsic value sits around $5 for the technology. There’s the ‘fair value’. The rest is what speculators are willing to pay.
Net present value equals the sum of the discounted cash flows. “What cash flows?”