Pennsylvania and YouGov polls cut Trump’s edge from 55.4 percent to 51.1 percent in past two days says Silver. 
Tied in Pennsylvania
The Washington Post reports Harris and Trump nearly even in Pennsylvania in campaign’s final days, Post poll finds. That a free link for interested parties.
Over the past six weeks, there has been no movement in the overall support levels, based on Post surveys. Today, as in a mid-September poll, Harris is at 48 percent among both registered voters and likely voters, while Trump is at 47 percent with both groups in a ballot test that provided the option for voters to name a third-party candidate as well.
In the commonwealth’s Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican businessman Dave McCormick remain in a competitive race. The Post survey shows Casey at 49 percent to McCormick’s 46 percent among likely voters and with a 49 percent to 45 percent advantage among registered voters. In September, the two candidates were tied among both likely and registered voters in a head-to-head matchup.
The two campaigns have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into advertising aimed at Pennsylvania voters, and the two candidates continue to make stops in the state the highest of priorities. Meanwhile, in these final days, both are doing all they can to get their supporters to the polls.
Voters show considerable enthusiasm in the campaign’s closing days. Already, 20 percent say they have cast their ballots, and an additional 73 percent say they are certain to vote — adding up to 94 percent of the electorate, after rounding percentages. In a related question, 64 percent say they are extremely motivated to vote. Along with the 20 percent who have voted already, that means more than 8 in 10 are extremely motivated.
Pennsylvanians also express confidence that the votes will be counted accurately, with about 3 in 4 saying they are either very or somewhat confident. But Trump already has raised questions about the validity of the election process in the state, and many Republicans appear skeptical that the votes will be accurately tabulated, with 4 in 10 saying they are either “not too” confident or “not at all” confident in the ultimate count.
The poll was conducted amid a clamorous controversy over comments made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump’s Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. Hinchcliffe, one of the early speakers at the event, described Puerto Rico as “a floating island of garbage.” Neither Trump nor his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, repudiated the comment. Pennsylvania has a large Puerto Rican population, and the Harris campaign has sought to use the comment against her rival.
A 94 Percent Turnout?!
More than 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans say they are certain to vote or already have cast ballots. Nearly 9 in 10 in both parties say they are extremely motivated or already have voted.
Among early voters, Harris leads by nearly 2 to 1 (63 percent to 32 percent), while Trump leads by eight percentage points among likely voters who haven’t voted yet (52 percent to 44 percent).
The Issues
- Economy: 61 percent cited the economy as the top issue. Of registered voters, 62 percent describe the economy as not so good or poor, compared with 37 percent who say it is good or excellent.
- Crime: Crime was the second most mentioned issue with 50 percent saying it’s extremely important.
- Health care, immigration, taxes and abortion are all in the mid-40s as important issues.
- 63 percent of self-identified Democrats call it the most important, higher than for any other issue. Harris holds a 22 point advantage over Trump as the candidate most capable of handling the abortion issue. Two-thirds of those who think it should be legal support Harris, and 85 percent of those who think it should be illegal support Trump.
The economy, crime, and immigration favor Trump. Health care and abortion favor Harris.
Republicans truly f’d up abortion in contrast to my MYOB platform.
I would not at all be surprised if abortion plus the Trump campaign disaster involving Puerto Rico costs Trump the state of Pennsylvania.
Trump has tried to walk back the abortion issue but that became impossible after his refusal to say he would veto an abortion ban bill if it got to his desk as president.
A possible saving grace on the Puerto Rico issue is Biden made a mess of it as noted in Another “Deplorables” Moment: Biden Calls Trump Supporters “Garbage”
Now there’s a further controversy because the White House altered transcript of Biden ‘garbage’ comment despite stenographer concerns
Silver Bulletin 2024 Presidential Election Forecast
The Silver Bulletin 2024 Presidential Election Forecast shows Trump is slipping ab bit in the final days.
🕒 Last update: 10:45 a.m., Saturday, November 2. At this point, there’s enough new polling that it’s hard to know exactly what’s influencing the model, but Harris is gaining in our forecast, and it’s converging toward a truly 50/50 forecast. A strong set of YouGov polls, plus a Washington Post poll showing her ahead by 1 point in Pennsylvania, are surely part of the reason why. Her win probability remains ever-so-slightly below Trump’s but is the highest it has been in two weeks.
Stop the Steal
The Stop the Steal meme is running rampant led by Pennsylvania.
Fraudulent Voter Registration Forms
ABC News reports Fraudulent voter registration forms in PA traced back to Arizona
Lancaster County’s District Attorney has announced an investigation into “an organized effort to submit approximately 2,500 voter registration applications at or near the deadline for registering to vote.”
The Monroe County District Attorney said, “The Monroe County Board of Elections identified approximately 30 irregular forms.”
The District Attorney identified Field+Media Corps as the “Arizona based organization, working out of Lancaster County, in turn was responsible for submitting the forms in question to county officials.”
Monroe County, PA, says several of the registration forms have been traced to a single person.
Viral Videos Debunked
A social media Viral Video about ballot harvesting is making the rounds.
It turns out it was a postal worker making a normal delivery as reported by Forbes and elsewhere.
A viral video posted on X Monday purporting to show a man dropping off an “obscene amount of ballots” in Northampton County, Pennsylvania, actually depicted a postal worker delivering ballots to the local elections office, NBC News confirmed. The video, which was shared by right-wing influencers including Alex Jones, has led to the postal worker getting harassed, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure told NBC.
Ballots Ripped Up In Bucks County
After a video went viral that was purporting to show ballots being ripped up in Bucks County, the FBI, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a joint statement saying they had determined “Russian actors manufactured and amplified” the video, describing it as “part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans.” The video has been attributed to Russian disinformation team Storm-1516, NBC reports. Local prosecutors also separately debunked the video, similarly “conclud[ing] that this video was fabricated in an attempt to undermine confidence in the upcoming election.”
A Pennsylvania Postmaster Delivered Ballots—and Became Part of a Conspiracy Theory
The Wall Street Journal reports A Pennsylvania Postmaster Delivered Ballots—and Became Part of a Conspiracy Theory
A viral video shared more than 13 million times since Tuesday, amplified by conservative influencers and conspiracy theorists, suggests electoral malfeasance in Pennsylvania: a man carrying what resembled a ballot-filled bin into a county election office.
In fact, the footage merely shows a postal worker performing a routine duty, according to the U.S. Postal Service and county and state officials in Pennsylvania, which has already become ground zero for election skeptics—raising alarm among officials.
The video was an “acting postmaster himself bringing mail ballots to the Northampton County election office—literally just delivering the mail,” Pennsylvania’s top election official, Republican Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt, said at a news briefing Thursday. “That video led to false allegations about harvesting.”
The video ricocheted across the internet as a sign of cheating in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. “They don’t even try to hide it!” wrote conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, sharing it to his 2.9 million followers on X on Wednesday.
My Take
Mail-in voting encourages fraud. I propose voting on election day, with an ID. Election day should be a day, not a month.
But there was no evidence of mass fraud in 2020 and there is none now. I salute the officials in Lancaster and Monroe County who caught 2,500+ fraudulent ballots.
If Trump loses the election again, it will be due to his own unforced errors.
Two-Month Synopsis
The debate with Harris was a disaster of Trump’s own making. He did not prepare, arrogantly believing he didn’t need to. Trump answered a question on abortion stupidly, and got baited into wasting time on who had bigger crowds.
Nonetheless, Trump battled back into the lead as Harris made unforced error after unforced errors in various interviews. On The View, Harris disclosed her true position that she would not have changed a single thing Biden did.
With most polls headed in his direction, team Trump made an unforced error in Pennsylvania that coupled with abortion could matter.
I would not at all be surprised if Wisconsin is the tipping state. More accurately, I won’t be surprised by anything.
My take all year was that Trump would win on the economy easily, provided he could control himself. But time and time again, he didn’t.
If Trump wins, and that is still my base case, say 55-45, it will be because of the economy. If he loses, it will be his own damn fault, once again.
Point Counterpoint
I Wrote In “Mish” for President of the United States
I won’t vote for either of them because in my view neither is fit to be president of the United states.
I made that case two days ago in I Wrote In “Mish” for President of the United States
Many people cheered, way more than I expected, others said I wasted my vote. A few, but way less than expected, called me an idiot.
I did a Twitter poll (definitely not a random sample) and about 20 percent of claimed registered voters said they would not vote. That was much higher than I expected.
I don’t blame them, nor do I blame anyone for voting against either of them. Sadly, that’s what it’s become.
The election will primarily decided by independents, young, voters, and blacks holding their nose. If you are certain how these voters will break, then you are a fool.
Potentially, MYOB ideas like abortion could decide the election in Pennsylvania and thus the nation. If so, it won’t be the economy, critical foreign policy issues, or trade.
“I refuse” to play this game. I listed my platform and a campaign pledge to not attempt to buy your vote.
Finally, forced at gunpoint to make a choice, I would vote for Trump.
IF the economy is the deciding issue, Trump will win. We find out Tuesday. Don’t undercount the possibility of the tipping state for Trump being Wisconsin.
Addendum
I added a link above from the WSJ debunking nonsense about ballot harvesting in PA.
Clicks, clicks & more clicks!
I’ll be disappointed whoever wins.
I don’t think voting for neither is a waste of a vote. Voting for someone who is guaranteed to do a bad job is a waste of a vote.
According to a GWP article today, he said pollsters put their finger on the scale to make election seem closer than it is. Oh really Nate?
In 2020 in Georgia the difference between the two candidates was 11,779 votes.
That amounts to a difference of .23 percent of the total votes cast across the state.
Do people actually think that of all the 4,935,487 votes that were cast were 100% legitimate?
Were there enough errors, miscounts, illegible, double votes, people not eligible to vote because of residence /citizenship/moving, or lack of chain of custody to invalidate that 11,779 votes?
What percentage of bad ballots is acceptable?
What percentage of bad ballots are deemed “mass fraud”?
These are excellent questions for a court of law.
Oh yeah, that was already done LOL (SO many times)
Considering that votes are private I think detecting anything but the most blatant fraud would be extraordinarily difficult. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. As it is, I expect it’s pretty easily done, especially in areas with political party machines who have alot of experience in that sort of thing.
Really, unless you can prove that someone is dead and that they voted, or the total number of ballots was greater than the number of voters I can’t offhand see how one could prove fraud. For a mail in ballot you can’t prove the person actually voted. My MIL is too senile to fill out the ballot herself or sign her name so my wife did it for her. My wife was going to toss the ballot but since it won’t make any difference (probably the bluest state in the US) she mailed it in.
Voting should be done in person, on election day, with ID. If you want to vote absentee then you should need to apply 90 days in advance.
But then the Democrats couldn’t possibly win
PA is full of nepotism and corruption. If not for that Trump easily takes it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zW6nRQUG694
The Ann Seltzer final Iowa presidential poll has it +3D as opposed to +7R in 2020. This should move the prediction markets.
In 2020, this same poll had Biden and Trump tied – Trump won by 8%. This is a joke poll – look at who they polled (majority of democrat female senior citizens) – is not representative of Iowans at all. Iowa has only gotten more conservative the last 25 years. Harris will be lucky to lose by less 8%.
I just can’t vote for a VP who’s friends with school shooters – and a self-admitted knucklehead.
Polls don’t matter; elections do.
Elections don’t matter; laws do.
If the law (14th amendment – insurrection) disqualifies Trump before January, .
Is JD then president or is the whole ballot disqualified?
I think JD, hence my Polymarket bet will pay off biggly.
Is anyone surprised that Nate is back to tied in the final few days before the election. As Gomer Pyle famously said, “Surprise, Surprise, Surprise”.
Silver is all over the map, and by the way, what does he know here at the end? What changed his mind?
Well, if you’re going to steal an election, you want the polls to say it’s a TIE.
As many have said, Nate is a shill.
Agreed!
Mish,
The 10th amendment puts the abortion issue to the states. How about we follow the constitution, even if it is unpopular?
We are following it- what’s the problem?
It’s unpopular.
EVERY resident of these United States should have the same exact legal rights and privileges, regardless of where they choose to reside.
Allowing individual states to make decisions on the rights their residents are entitled to can lead to shortchanging them compared to those in other states.
I wonder if someone could challenge the Constitution on this basis of lack of equal treatment and force a Constitutional rewrite? Has this ever been tried?
That leads to a police state (as does most forms of gov’t). So, the Feds in charge of EVERY law?
Take parking meters laws or fine: NYC – $20/hour and $500 fine; small town – $1/hour with $80 fine.
Athens/Rome, other ancient civs were centralized I believe.
Should I be able to drive at 16 like in Florida? States have different rules all the time.
I shouldnt have to but I’ll trade you abortion rights for the 2nd amendment in its full uninfringed form across the 50 states. How about.it?
Sure. What well-regulated militia are you a part of? And I believe that “Arms” should be interpreted as those available when the Constitution was passed, so basically muskets.
We good?
Well in that case let’s just have abortion with medical standards of the 18th century too, when the constitution was passed.
We good?
It’s a shame you blookes (blue collars) didn’t have the opportunity to take a logic or rhetoric course in college that you didn’t attend. You’d find it much easier to write meaningful, cogent replies that make logical sense.
Allowing the states to make decisions provide the experimental environment necessary to test new ideas on a small scale and fail instead of taking the entire country down with a single bad experiment. The more experiments that can be performed shortens the time it takes to find really good ideas.
What if I don’t want to be a guinea pig?
Move.
10th? A cute, quaint, and interesting 18th Century idea. States rights and such….may be tried again somewhere/someday.
For US, it’s long gone … thanks to progressives like Woodrow, FDR, Obama.
Fed Govt is now a uncontrolled Leviathan.
We may see if Trump can handle it — he lost the first round (2016-2020) with the CDC/NIH Grand Slam….Intel community, the usual clean-up gang, couldn’t come through.
“Mail-in voting encourages fraud. I propose voting on election day, with an ID. Election day should be a day, not a month.”
Can’t speak to other states, but PA nailed things down pretty good for mail-in and unique barcoded ballots after proving eligibility, and was done so by the (R)s because of the crap going on in Philly. If it weren’t for REPUBLICANS who want ambiguity in the state, we should pre-canvas and count the mail-ins as they come in so we all know the result on election day.
Now BOTH are going to be here on Monday, and I wish they would go away so I can go to work in peace.
No military vote then? Are you insane?
Just some random thoughts: 1) Since Biden is in charge of the National Guard this time around, there will be no widespread or even targeted protests over the results. All will be kept quiet. 2) It is very possible the MBAs have told the big media owners that the best way to keep peoples eyeballs on their screens (and on advertising) is to keep pushing that this is a 50/50 race. It may not really be that way. 3) Donald has never been much for doing any work — he just wants everyone to believe he’s the greatest human ever. He might be very happy to lose — and he disappears before the Marshals find him.
Can you imagine what Trump and his deplorables would be up to if the polls showed Harris 10 or more points ahead?
Put the box wine down
I really dont think the vote count in the end will be 50/50-ish. Biden had 8 million votes more than Trump in 2020. Wasnt that race supposed to be 50/50? Isnt that why it took days to get a final result?
No, the final polls had him up by 7.
You mean Biden is “him”
How much of that 8 million was from California and NY?
“Neither is fitting to be the President of The United States “. No truer words have ever been spoken! These two are an embarrassment and totally unfit to hold any office at any level!
Have you see Biden lately?
He’s chained up in the White House basement.
Probably locked himself by accident in the bathroom and no one has noticed. Poor guy. I will give him credit for having the moral courage to step down, even though I expect he was under alot of pressure. Alot of people would have held on until the lid of their coffin was shut.
I would have thought no one at this point in time would still think Biden was capable but I’ve had friends tell me that it really doesn’t make a difference. According to them lots of big companies have senile CEOs and they do just fine since the VP types do all the work.
Of course, such companies don’t have to worry about Taiwan/Ukraine/S Korea/etc. being invaded since the person at the top is too weak to do anything about it.
I can think of alot of corporations, GE and GM come immediately to mind, that went to hell because of the stupidity of their CEOs. And their lack of knowledge of the nature of the business.
yes. He is getting old. Have you seen the orange traitor lately? NOPE. too much make up.
Vote Democrat they are now into killing Pet Squirrels in NYS as per Zero Hedge.
Another glorious day for Democracy.
It is the Insane vs. Sane people if you have not been following the script.
A story as old as time. Big government kills
My wife of 51 years, who happens to be a Woman, said to me this morning Harris is crazy.
My response, am happy that you noticed.
Squirrels are wild animals, not allowed to be pets. What’s next? A pet hyena?
You heartless wench.
A male cannot be a “wench” by definition.
I prefer heartless warlock.
I think he meant trans wench.
You chose such a pretty name. You sure you wanted warlock. Don’t fight it.
Pretty good to eat, though.
Wenches?
You sound like a hearless little brch
“ there was no evidence of mass fraud in 2020 and there is none now.”
Correct. But the dumb f*cks are easily fooled. And if Trump loses again, they will never be convinced otherwise. When did so many Americans become such cult morons?
Agree 100%. Going forward they will never believe the results if thier candidate loses, and if thier candidate wins it will be because he/she won by such a large margin the “fraud” was overcome. There’s no reasoning with people that think this way. Their political ideology is thier religion and thier candidate is Jesus. Some say we live in a clown world, with respect to the above I wholeheartedly agree.
When the Democrats lowered voting standards to the point of absurdity.
“voting standards”? There are no voting standards. If you can breath, you can vote. If you have the IQ of a worm, you can vote.
Well, you have to a U.S. citizen, at least 18 years of age and – in some states – a non-felon.
I don’t consider myself a DF. Let’s get rid of ALL mail in ballots, make sure absentee ballots have absolute chain of custody, and require state issued voter ID and see what happens?
All of this leads to the converse of what you’re suggesting by insulting me & 75M other Trump supporters. Given all this bad crap, how could Dems win without cheating? Is Trump really that polarizing? He may well be, but I certainly don’t have rose colored glass that’s for sure.
2020 was literally stolen by the censorship of the Hunter laptop. That one event changed the course of that election at the very last moment.
When Harris wins and then in 2020 you’ve got DeSantis, Haley, & Vance (all of whom, are demonstrably better than Trump in terms of likeability) who lose for a 3rd straight time after Harris does all of the crazy things she plans to do over the next four years, then I guess you’ll still be calling us names.
Mish canceled my account back at the start of the year. Prior to this, I intentionally called you out for your constant whining about people’s politics despite your not voting. I appreciate him re-instating it, and the last few months I’ve refrained from calling you out.
PapaD, you need to stop posting on this site about anything politics. Stick to topics that include making money, energy, & climate change. If you don’t vote, then all you’re doing is yelling at people AS A NON-VOTER for exercising their opinions about something they’re passionate about. I could handle your condescension a lot better, if you’d take the time to vote rather than acting all pious about being the lone wolf who can better himself.
I find it very concerning that Mish tolerates your name calling. Mish?
Mish can ban me if he wishes. I will still call all cult morons dumb f*cks, because they are. I am merely agreeing with Mish that there has never been any evidence of fraud on a level that could affect the election. And I am tired of cult morons who believe the election fraud lies.
Please go ahead and vote for whoever you want. That is your right. But don’t scream “fraud” (without proof) if they don’t win. That’s what dumb f*cks do.
I don’t even care who wins. I can find a way to profit either way.
But I will continue to call out cult morons when I see them.
The only way we can find out for sure is for Trump to win and then have him to get the FBI, DOJ & State police heavily involved.
If they spend 4 years hunting down leads, subpoening all sorts of elections officials and exhausting all avenues of potential election tampering and find nothing that’s meaningful, then I will gladly extend to you the biggest mea culpa of my lifetime.
Let’s see what happens Tuesday night through Wednesday and then rally the troops here on Mishtalk. I for one will not be surprised to see a Trump lead Tuesday night go POOF again. I hope I’m wrong, but I will not bet $1 against it.
The dumb fuck is you you asshole
That’s funny from the “2A all the way” blog poster
Lol! Dumb f*cks are those who believe cult garbage like; the Dems have a weather machine that creates hurricanes and sends them to red states! Or The election was stolen.
I don’t think it was stolen but i do believe the corrupt democrat machine is engaging in fraud. Don’t know if it was enough to make a difference. It’s actually a blessing Trump lost because the inflation would still have occurred underhis watch and the complicit republican party would have born the brunt of the public wrath
The Hunter Laptop suppression STOLE the election plain & simple.
The only way to find out if there was real illegal activity is for Trump to win & for his DOJ to investigate all possible angles of illegal ballot tampering.
This election is causing many marriages to become a toss-up.
Cite?
I was rudely woken this morning by my clock radio playing a Kamala the Kop endorsement ad featuring Ben Stiller supporting his strong daughter by voting for a woman. I fell asleep after knocking the blasted thing off my bureau.
Mish’s last sentence = “We find out Tuesday.”
That used to be, but with the counting of mail-in ballots for days after the election, maybe by Friday we will know.
So, Nate Silver is really going out on a limb, as usual. Why on earth would anyone listen to him?
Silver makes no secret of his methodologies or his inclinations of who he favors. And when he says he doesn’t know, he says he doesn’t know. That’s why I listen to him.
He’s written an excellent book: The Signal and the Noise, very good reading and easy to understand. A really interesting explanation of how statistical methodology works in baseball. Also a good discussion of why the 2008 mortgage crash happened: the fools running finance didn’t know the difference between correlated and independent data/trends, which even I know should have been blindingly obvious.
The guy knows his stuff.
Of course he does. He’s part of The System that’s stealing elections.
Trump campaign sent PA voters giant B&W postcards per day using USPS. The dems knocked it off. They also knocked off Trump’s cell phones massages.
fun fact: the vibration from a cell phone actually gives a good massage
You’ll never see hard data on abortion numbers. Amazing to watch regime media leftists garner so many votes off an emotional wedge issue that doesn’t enter into my top 500 list of serious problems the nation needs to resolve. My top issues below:
1) The national debt/EndTheFed/massively downsize government
2) Border invasion/reverse corporatism/crony capitalism/globalism ASAP and re-legalize sovereignty/citizenship/Constitution
3) End all endless unconstitutional wars
4) Substance abuse and obesity ravaging the population
5) Transfer most power away from Washington DC to the States and individuals
6) Term Limits Now
7) End all re-formulated marxism-DEI divisiveness programs everywhere and remove these saboteurs from government
8) Maintain America’s pre-eminence in the space domain
9) Dismantle and defeat “judicial activism,” aka, destroying the Constitution or bypassing it, or weakening it
10) Celebrate, boycott, and encourage the death of dishonest regime media propaganda
The government created most of those problems with its own stupid policies, but
where are the campaign promises to fix them? Nowhere. Here are the five top issues:
The solutions are simply to get government the hell out of them, but that will never happen. Never.
There is something to be said for this idea but it is physically impossible to implement with an eligible voting population as large as we have in the USA.
The only way to implement this would be via electronic voting. But would Republicans embrace such technology? I doubt it.
It’s not “physically impossible”, in fact many nations – some nearly as large as ours – manage just fine, and with fewer issues. Where there’s a will, there’s a way.
If this is a “fact”, then put up some cites backing this “fact”.
Good luck with that! Most posters on this site cite the ‘facts’ in their mind, not on what has been proven to others via verifiable research/proof
That is how it’s done in Europe. Duh
Europe doesn’t vote for candidates. Individual countries vote for their own candidates. And no country in Europe has anywhere near the population AND the physical area that the USA does. D’OH.
The entire continent has the same voting rule for each country smart ass.
It’s really sad that I have to do your research for you. You should seriously consider just lurking because you don’t know what you are typing!
No way I’d go to a polling place on Election Day. Not this year.
There are only two ways that this is close, one legitimate and the other not. The legitimate way is that polling methodology has changed since ’20, and Trump’s support is now more accurately measured. The other is the same sort of rampant fraud that we saw last time.
Nate should toss the coin Hillary used against The Bern in the 2016 D primaries.
After two assassination attempts Trump’s momentum was rising, but he threw a few
interceptions. The last one was to Liz Cheney.
Republicans need to tell the bible thumpers to pound sand. Their fixation on abortion and subservience to Israel is toxic.
The Trumplicans are tied to the hip of Christian Right of book censorship, Old Testament justice, the unitary executive, a theocratic state of laws based on the 10 Commandments (Sharia Law for the White Evangelicals version), outlawing the teaching of evolution, anti- homosexual, anti – transgender, anti – abortion. anti – science, anti- democratic, misogynistic, patriarchal, teaching of creationism, merging of religion and the state, subsidizing Christian education in the public schools, etc.
They are an existential threat to the positive ideas of the Enlightenment, civil rights, voting rights, education, the tenants of the 1st Amendment, republicanism, rule of law, supremacy of the US Constitution in matters of law and governance and side with Israel to hasten the destruction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque which will turn the Middle East into a conflagration and possibly precipitate WWIII, therefore thermonuclear war.
Silver knows the 2024 polls are worse than ever: https://nypost.com/2024/11/01/us-news/election-guru-nate-silver-accuses-pollsters-of-putting-finger-on-the-scale-lying-to-keep-presidential-race-close/
“The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.
“Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys,” Silver vented.
Exactly! This is why I predicted a Harris landslide win weeks ago.
In that article, Silver says that he thinks Trump will win
Agree. I don’t see this being close for many reasons
By landslide, do you mean you think Harris will win all the swing states?
I believe she will easily get the popular vote. I also believe she will get most of the swing states. We will find out this week but I think Trump is finished for many, many reasons
“But there was no evidence of mass fraud in 2020 and there is none now.”
I am afraid if you believe that you are either blind or simply uneducated or without knowledge
There was scads of evidence. Essentially none of it justiciated
If Kamala wins, it will ONLY be because they stole the election
Ballot harvesting is nearly impossible to prove. That’s why democrats love early voting. Those who claim fraud was never proven are kidding themselves or willfully ignorant.
You people are so lame…
And you? Delusion libtard or good little lamb trusting your dear leaders.
My son who lives in NYC but still maintains his residence in MI was sent 2 mail in ballots. No possibility of fraud right?. LAME?
It would be fraud if he used both of them. Then he should rightly be put in jail and heavily fined.
Correct
You have a point. That probably tipped the election
Low iq smartass.
Hahahahaha!!!
Didn’t Trump plan to vote early until he changed his mind (shocker on that last part!)?
What’s good for the Orange-headed Goose is good enough for the Blue Gander?
Can you please explain how is it that every suit brought by Trump or his advocates of election fraud were denied a hearing for lack of evidence or thrown out after presenting evidence that it wouldn’t have affected the outcome of the election?
FDR – You left off a key point – and that is by Trump or Republican appointed judges.
Pence, who I dislike, deserves a bit of praise for not being the idiot Trump wanted him to be.
Totally agree
That’s why Trump picked a 40-year old this time. More biddable.
There were 68 lawsuits. The Trump people lost 2 on the merits, and won 3 on the merits, all of these 5 fairly insignificant cases
The other 63 were ALL dismissed on procedural grounds, usually Standing or Laches.
So that is the explanation, and your point about these cases is incorrect.
Facts can be troublesome.
https://campaignlegal.org/results-lawsuits-regarding-2020-elections
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/exhaustive-fact-check-finds-little-evidence-of-voter-fraud-but-2020s-big-lie-lives-on
Fact check: Courts have dismissed multiple lawsuits of alleged electoral fraud presented by Trump campaign – https://www.reuters.com/article/world/fact-check-courts-have-dismissed-multiple-lawsuits-of-alleged-electoral-fraud-p-idUSKBN2AF1FQ/
https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-2020-stolen-election-claims-are-wrong-merits
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aqorZ61AYFqZU-EDQBBzjqfvAoC5nKcB/view
Do you really believe that if Trump had never suggested fraud, anyone else would have? Let me help you with this one: NOT A CHANCE!!! He can’t stand to be viewed as a loser
You are completely incorrect. NONE of the screaming about the fraud (and remember the fraud itself probably wasnt even necessarey, 80% of ALL Americans believe the suppression of the Hunter laptop story ALONE swung the election, and the lies by 51 former intel people who should and hopefully will ALL lose their clearances if Trump is allowed to win) had anything to do with Trumps claims. I remember strongly at the time the thousands of analysts bringing up the issues. No one cared what Trump thought about it. Nor do I. Not a Trump lover. But I am beside myself that the Republic is lost. And it is lost, even if Trump wins, small chance it recovers.
“Already, 20 percent say they have cast their ballots, and an additional 73 percent say they are certain to vote — adding up to 94 percent of the electorate, after rounding percentages.”
That would be a record for participation rate, at least in the United States, and well above Pennsylvania’s 71% last time. That would be a whole lot of enthusiasm and, frankly, a 90+% participation rate would be quite difficult to believe.
There’s a wide gap between what people say they will do and what they actually do.
“…A possible saving grace on the Puerto Rico issue…”
In my view, the Puetro Rico “joke” was a bigger gaffe than Biden’s dumb statement? Why, well because PA has roughly 500,000 Puetro Rican residents (about 3.9% of PA’s total population). In a close election like this one a few thousand votes could make all the difference.
https://puertoricoreport.com/puerto-rican-population-in-the-states/
Much more insulting to the intelligence of Puerto Ricans that you think they can’t understand the difference BTW a joke said by a comedian and something Trump said. I take it you don’t know many. I do. They could care less. They do care about the economy and the border.
Yes, because the Puetro Ricans you know represent all Puetro Ricans. I’m sure some care and some don’t. Comedy is an art and art is good or bad in the eye (ear in the case) of the beholder. It doesn’t matter if it was intended to be comedy. If enough are offended then, well, I guess they didn’t think it was funny. I don’t know how many were offended, but I’m pretty confident it wasn’t zero.
My point is that some were clearly offended. In a close election any gaffe that could turn voters away is not a good idea. The Trump campaign should have vetted what the comedian was going to say, but they didn’t. The joke was unnecessary and did nothing but possibly hurt Trump. Not a smart move.
I couldn’t care less which one of these dipshits wins. I don’t vote, but if I did I’d write in my cat, Mr. Beefy.
No. None were offended. Zero.
Losing. Your obsession is losing.
Why do all of those complaining about stolen land oppose independence for Puerto Rico?
It’s a binary choice. To say there’s no difference worth voting for in the choice is an indicator of a non-serious person. For all of Trump’s MANY flaws, the possibility of real policy changes via the influence of Gabbard, Kennedy, Musk, Vivek, Vance, maybe even Trump’s sons’ influence raises hope for at least stanching the bleed.
Big question is can the bloodthirsty swamp neocons be kept out?
You can see >1000 election fraud cases here:
https://electionfraud.heritage.org/search
Plus, many cases of fraud in 2020 are statistical — hence, does not meet “reasonable doubt” threshold for trial; nor does it indicate who’s culpable.
Good to see the 2,500 registrations stopped … yet more “evidence” of fraud.
Yes, convictions are limited but of course we know that … Absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence.
Conclusion – there is tons of fraud, widely distributed, some evidence but difficult to prove bRD, AND, the body politic holding the enforcement powers are looking the other way. Voting policies need massive reform to regain trust (at least mine).
Great list… shows which party is actually committing election fraud:
“Brian Pritchard, a First Vice Chair of the Republican state party, was sanctioned by the Georgia State Board of Elections for voting at least 9 times while ineligible from 2008 to 2010. “
“Diana Watt was charged by the state with one felony count of attempt to influence a public servant, one misdemeanor count of perjury, and one misdemeanor count of tampering with nominating papers after submitting fraudulent signatures for a candidate ballot petition in the 2022 Republican primary for the 7th congressional district. Watt was a circulator with the Oregon-based firm Grassfire LLC, which was paid to gather the required 1,500 signatures for Republican candidate Carl Andersen to qualify for the ballot. Watt submitted petitions with the forged signatures of voters, including deceased voters and voters who had moved out of state prior to the petition being circulated. “
“James “Darrell” Jackson, a Monroe County Constable, was charged by the state with one felony count of engaging in organized crime and 5 felony counts of making or receiving expenditures for voting after participating in a conspiracy by the Jackson family scheme to bribe voters or obtain blank ballots from registered voter during the 2022 Republican primary election to help secure his election as Monroe County Jailor. Jackson conspired with at least six others in his scheme. “
“Jordahni Rimpel was charged by the state with one felony count of attempt to influence a public servant and one misdemeanor count of perjury after submitting fraudulent signatures for a Republican candidate ballot petition in the 2022 Republican primary for the 7th congressional district. Rimpel was a circulator with the Oregon-based firm Grassfire LLC which was paid to gather the required 1,500 signatures for Republican candidate Carl Anderson to qualify for the ballot. Rimpel submitted petitions with the forged signatures of voters, including deceased voters and voters who had moved out of state prior to the petition being circulated.”
Those are just from the first page.
Lol! It is often Republicans that commit fraud. Because they are dumb enough to believe that the Democrats cheat. So they feel that they must counter that.
Dumb f*cks.
Ya can’t fix stupid… but it’s fun poking it with a stick and watching it hiss.
Camal commie con continues & her puke worthy TV ads are full of lies and BS…there many loser lemming leftists who will drink her kool-aid – sad but it seems our crap schools are succeeding in dumbing down the brain dead…
Justice for Peanut the Squirrel
I see squirrel killers willing to down vote. Party of hate disappoints
I want Kamala for White House Whore, Trump as Dictator, and Mish as President.
I will be VP. I promise to keep my mouth shut.
Are you wearing your trash bag?
Polls mean nothing. Vote!
You voted for the winner. Can’t wait to see who wins and congratulate you on you’re winning candidate.
So close. So far away
I tried to force myself to decide between unhinged and unfit, but once in the booth, I couldn’t vote for either….