Existing-home sales declined 5.4 percent in June. It was the 23rd decline in 29 months. But the median price hit a new record.
Sales are down 38.6 percent from the January 2022 high and barely above the October 2023 low (yellow highlights).
The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Slipped 5.4% in June; Median Sales Price Jumps to Record High of $426,900
Key Highlights
- Existing-home sales faded 5.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million. Sales also slumped 5.4% from one year ago.
- The median existing-home sales price bounced 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900 – the second straight month it reached an all-time high and the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
- Existing condominium and co-op sales tumbled 7.5% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 370,000 units, down 14% from one year ago (430,000 units). The median existing condo price was $371,700 in June, up 2.6% from the previous year ($362,200).
- The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 3.1% from the previous month to 1.32 million at the end of June, or the equivalent of 4.1 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. The months supply of inventory reached its highest level in more than four years
- First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in June, down from 31% in May but up from 27% in June 2023.
- All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in June, unchanged from May and up from 26% one year ago.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Month Ago
Existing-home sales are down for the 23nd time in 29 months.
Sales were below the lowest estimate of any economist is the Bloomberg economists’ poll.
Existing-Home Sales Supply
At the existing rate of sales, supply is 4.1 months. Supply is the highest in over four years.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Sales were falling so fast that year-over-year numbers were increasingly easy to beat. But things reversed lower after getting to -1.7 percent year-over-year.
From a year ago sales are down 5.4 percent and falling again. Sales are down 38.6 percent from the January 2022 high.
Existing-Home Sales 1968-Present
Existing-home sales are below the level of December 1995 and also May 1979.
Hoot of the Day
“We’re seeing a slow shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Yeah tell me about it with prices at a record high, mortgage rates close to 7 percent and the economy sinking fast.
Signs of Severe Credit Card and Auto Loan Stress in Generation Z
The people who most want to buy a house, can’t because they can neither afford a house nor the rent they are paying.
That has been an explicit theme of mine since February.
The economy is slowing and that will hit the zoomers first and the hardest, especially renters.
Candidate Preference by Age Group
An amazing 41 percent of those 18-34 are for Trump with only 30 percent for Biden.
That’s an unprecedented 11 percentage point gap for Republicans. In 2020 this age group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
I discussed the above poll and also candidate preference by race in Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden
I tie all of the economics and politics together in my post Signs of Severe Credit Card and Auto Loan Stress in Generation Z
If age group 18-35 sticks with Trump (or Kennedy) I do not think Harris can win.
This is the group hardest hit by rising rent and rising home prices. They are angry.
Ah yes, Zoomers/Millenials expected to pay for Boomers Social Srcurity, Medicare, Government Legacy Debt, and over priced real estate assets.
What could possibly go wrong with this Ponzi Scheme?
Bidenvilles and Trumpvilles will flourish.
Debt is indeed the new slavery.
what goes up will come down. i get the feeling the grotesque boomers(i’m one who fought this empire idiocy) will be bankrupt if they live another 10 years……..the kiddies will pick over the r/e
The housing market had 15 months consolidation and resumed its larger down trend 4 months ago.
The proposition that money and liquid assets are the same was started by the Gurley-Shaw thesis. Contrary to the pundits, banks don’t lend deposits:
see: working-paper-80.pdf (cato.org) Banks are Intermediaries of Loanable Funds
No, the source of time deposits is demand deposits. The banks pay for the deposits that they collectively, already own. It makes a difference. C-19 has reduced the ratio of DDs to TDs by 18%. In 1966, it only took 7% to prevent a recession.
The mag 7 are down in the AH.
RE is an asset class that has been financialized. No longer merely a place to hang your hat and raise a family. Nowadays, you can check the value of your asset in Redfin, Zillow, etc. Couldn’t really have done that in daze gone by. Mom and pop are RE investors.
It is more precise now, but not all that different. People could always check in the past, but it’s easier now. I have bought and sold three houses and built one in the past 30 years, before and after Zillow, and I don’t think there’s that much difference on the selling or buying end. Searching is easier now, but in the past you’d just call an agent and get pretty much the same information.
On the financialized front, it has always been that way. The change there started in the 1960s with securitization, but I don’t think it has changed the actual buying or selling process, except during the no-doc era when Freddie and Fannie allowed underwriting standards to collapse for a while. That is no longer the case. Lending standards have returned to normal.
I could change my mind if there is data showing a material increase in turnover, I haven’t seen it. I will always change my mind to reflect facts, but I note that the standard 30-year fixed is based on the 10-year Treasury note because its 7-year duration (average maturity of coupons and final payment of principal) matches the average holding period of a house. If that has changed, I think you would see a different benchmark emerge.
If anything, I suspect that holding periods have lengthened, meaning less turnover, because of the increase in interest rates.
It’s fundamentally diffferent unless you think social media is not all that different than the boys and girls clubs of old.
I think social media is fundamentally different in the larger scheme of things, but I don’t think it is materially different with respect to residential real estate turnover. If there are data to show that it’s different, I will change my opinion.
it ain’t different. you are correct. go study the roaring 1920s and great deprssion. or go study the boom busts in r/e in the 1700 and 1800s. RR track directions would make or brake boom town or ghost towns. not to mention RRs would get huge swaths of land on each side of tracks from US Gov. RRs were really r/e companies, likd MCD is today. the boom busts in late 20th and early 21st are tame…………..i did experience a little doozy for a few years…..and enjoyed it. my sunbelt city phoenix boomed in 2004 and 2005. my hood busted almost 70% down from high of 2006 to 2012. i bought great cap rate 2 and 5 family houses pushing 20%.
The 1800s in particular were full of booms and busts. The Panic of 1893 was tied with the Great Depression for severity. Residential real estate has been “financialized” for more than a century, and I see (with the early 2000s exception that I noted) nothing materially different now. As always, data can change my mind. Bullshit walks, numbers talk.
Biden has covid. On Fri Bibi will fly to Fl to meet Trump in Mar Largo. He cannot fly back on Sat. He will stay in Fl. He will celebrate his son’s birthday in Miami.
as archie bunker would say whoooooop di doooooooo
Presidents running for re-election have a better chance than an unconfirmed candidate. If Saint Joe quits today he might help Gamala. He promised active, but dealing with him is bs. In the last 4Y Gamala turned left to the squad. Missing in action in congress during Bibi’s speech is ==> an insult. Doing business with her, as an unconfirmed candidate, help her. She is trying to move to the center, for better chance. Radical candidates odds are low. In the next 4 months Trump/Vance will start a tsunami of Gamala & the squad. The D might start another coupe to remove her, escaping Biden’s retaliation, stealing her money.
BIBI is a war criminal. the whole world gets it but a huge slice of amerikans. the hasidim in my hood in brooklyn despise Bibi and the Zionist little puppet colony we call israel. that little strip of land from mouth of nile river to sinai is the gateway entrance and exit to 3 continents…….africa/europ/asia………….empires have always ruled there. always will. Bibi is begging the empire for more funds. the rest is BS and eyewash. whence amerika totally crumblesand leave another empire will take over. probably china for a few centuries………most normal people on planet despise israel. i do also, but feel sorry for them. they have been pounded for thousands of years..
Can anyone here give a good explanation for the explosive pricing in housing during the pandemic? Was it the massive fraud from the PPP loans? I have heard myself from talking to family and friends and the people they know that they have heard from a few folks with businesses that bought million dollar homes with the PPP money they got through that helicopter money. The PPP program was littered with fraudulent claims. Most of us regular folks got stimmy checks so getting paid not to work for a few months isn’t going to contribute to being able to buy real estate. Or was it the stock market that ripped to new highs during that time? …unless you had “all your marbles” invested in the S&P, Nasdaq, and you doubled your “already invested” several million dollars would you be able to buy up real estate with your stock market gains. It really doesn’t make sense. Where did everyone that “bought the hell out of real estate” over the last few years come up with all this money? Why was the demand “so high” for homes during the pandemic? …Did all the millionaires “stuck in American cities” that got ‘locked down’ just decide to buy homes wherever the hell they could? Please give any and all comments for what you believe really happened. Current home prices around the US don’t make any sense at all…..unless, the US dollar is going the way of Zimbabwe.
I can give you one example of what has occurred in Housing.
Today was talking with foreman of a Landscaping Co. I have known for many years.
Said a pallet of natural faced stone is now $600.00 picked up at supply house.
Two years ago same pallet was $350.00
Trucking from quarry and Quarry prices all higher because of Fuel, Parts, Maintenance and now Labor.
If a person is aware of impact of poor policy decisions they would have acted to buy in advance of whatever price increases were coming down the pipe, before they happened. People have been buying in advance for some time now. It has started to abate, but the damage is already done.
It did not take an IQ of 180 to understand what was about to occur coming out of Covid and with the current administration at the Helm. When an economy gets intentionally shut down, Bad things happen.
Emergency bank loans in the millions, 3.5%, to business people with good collateral,
to customers they know, who applied for “help”.
PPP loans paled in comparison to private bank’s emergency loan. Loaded with money from both wealthy people bought suburban and vacation homes, cars, stocks…Working people and the poor cut their c/c loans consuming the rest.
Free money is NEVER free. Someone always pays. There are a lot of corporations that got large PPE loans and of course they used it to their advantage. RE investors can afford to pay high prices for property as they’re going to rent it out for whatever they need to in order to make a profit. There are a lot more “mom and pop” real estate investors now.
jlab – the main driver of the huge house price increases from 2020 to present was 2% to 3% mortgage rates from 2020-2022, courtesy of the Fed.
This greatly spurred demand which overwhelmed supply. There were simply not enough homes for sale to meet demand so prices skyrocketed. PPP loans and a rush to physical assets helped things along, but the primary driver was the ultra low mortgage rates.
Now that mortgage rates are back to normal, millions of people are ‘locked’ in their existing houses because they don’t want to give up their low housing payments, causing a continued housing ‘shortage’ except in a handful of places that went bust like Texas.
ALL of above correct plus the free money. remember when oil went below zero a barrel. it was an aberration and now the prices are stoooopid. dumps from coast to coast worth 10x median salaries.
Two main reasons. One was the Feds huge injection of money when the real economy was stagnant at best. The other is that there was a lot of inflation in the cost of building materials and labor.
The wealthy are doing well…
so it makes perfect sense to cut their taxes…
so we can get those median home prices even higher.
Trump tax cuts: Top 5% of taxpayers would get nearly half the benefit if extended | CNN Politics
Of course the top taxpayers would benefit. They are the ones actually paying the majority of the taxes. Duh. People who don’t pay taxes obviously don’t benefit from tax cuts.
Corporations are the ones that need the tax cuts. The more corporations have to pay in taxes the higher their prices are and they pass them down to the consumer.
This is good thing since the number of houses is limited but the number of dollars is not.
number of houses and housing units are basically unlimited…….look out the window next time you fly cross country……….
For many home owners they can just sit this mess out. There is no place to run to any longer. If you are making your bills now, moving just generates larger bills.
In addition since the economy is screwed up primarily due to leadership incompetence that is something the upcoming election has a high probability of changing.
Doing nothing and sitting on ones hands is the best option for most at this time. Those who keep thinking housing is going to crash are missing the point entirely. In a Political economy two years down the road and options for course of action will be very different circumstance.
Yes there will be some Housing inventory getting sold off, but outright massive Liquidations of Foreclosed Homes is not in the cards.
If the dimwits get back in then the problem will be a currency crisis and high rates. At that point there will be many houses put up for sale. However there will be no money available for would be buyers.
Housing is not a video game. it remains the primary vehicle for most people to accumulate some wealth in their lifetime. One or two years of waiting is small potatoes compared to life of a House from a makeover to the next do over. That is generally about 40 years between major overhauls.
Some people find living out of their suitcase adequate. Most people desire more stability which living in a community does provide.
There is more to life then ones digital evaluation of how much one is worth.
you can sell, invest the money in bonds, stocks, REITs or direct r/e, or any business…………and go rent. it’s all about the math as far as pure investing goes. but for sure many folks fall in love with their houses like they do with their autos…….i’ve only really “loved” my boats in life. and that was when i was a teen and early twenties. beyond the love stories, it’s just the math……..after all costs and taxes. again, paying taxes in USA is optional if you choose the right career and setup. r/e investing is wonderful for legal tax avoidance…….
Depends upon a persons lifestyle choices and where they place that value.
Money is not a measure of anything. Certainly not something a person can place trust in.
It can make life easier if material things is how a person values.
But money will never replace having happiness or contentment.
A person can fall in love with materialism but that is an empty existence.
Agree. The funnest most care free people I’ve ever encountered in my life are those that make just enough to get by. The rich folks I’ve been acquainted with are generally the most up tight boring folks I’ve ever met.
Bottom line, do what makes YOU happy, not what makes someone else happy.
renting is economically better. been a landlord investor for decades and rented my own dwelling for half my 64 years. when you put pencil to paper and opportunity cost plus flexibility of moving for business opportunities like investing in rental properties and family lifestyle choices……..it doesn’t come close. in most expensive markets it is usually the case. in less “financially desirable” places it can be a close call………but my ROI on trading stocks and bonds and currencies and investing in rentals totally makes up the opportunity cost of my personal dwelling cost to purchase, all in. not even close. i love the fact that most people disagree with this.
Is the recession near : [1M] SPX 1929 (H) to Mar 2000 (C)
its a mexican standoff. nobody with 3% mortgage will sell and noone in accordance with average salaries will pay these sky high prices at 7%, they can’t afford it! the only thing to unfreeze the housing market is a full blown recession.
Existing-home sales are down for the 23nd time in 29 months.
It’s 23th. 🙂
Yep – I caught and fixed that – Thanks for mentioning though
“23nd” sounds like a Bidenism. I’ll miss those. But we still have Kamala…
I think I got it from George Bush
LOL,nobody comes to mish site to expect “pride and prejudice” literature…….
Do you think the Potemkin Village economy could actually withstand a bout of DEFLATION? Something has to wash away the nonsense of a permanent inflation policy forcing everyone into speculating for any kind of return. .
I thought the lead chart was misleading because of the 2021 start date so I checked out the historical data. The pre-pandemic high is 5.5M and the housing crisis low is 4M
So yup, we’re not in a good spot.
That young cohort had their future stolen from them in both the pandemic and then the post pandemic feeding trough courtesy of the Fed and then oxymoronic legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act. Too young to line up at the trough, old enough to take a beating with inflation.
Yeah imagine being 22 now and just graduated college.
4 years ago at 18 you lost your senior high school year (prom etc)
The next 2 years you did virtual college (missed being a freshmen and mingling with others your age)
Now you finally graduate to an incredibly inflated housing market + rents and you missed out on all the free money handed out during Covid because you weren’t working.
It’s been a HUGE kick in the teeth for anyone ages 22-26 due to lost money, lost college/high school years etc. The next group coming up (18-21) isn’t faring any better financial wise but at least did get most of their high school / college years.
The public school teachers unions were leading the charge. Randi Weingarten caught conspiring with Fauci on emails to keep the schools closed.
Of course. Anything to allow the teachers to vacation in Florida for 10 straight months while students did some random online ‘work’.
That one is a demon. Ok, both of them are demons.
They have learned an early lesson: central bankers can make you rich or poor. Load up on credit and wait until these screw-ups wreck the economy again, then print their way out the hole.
“They have learned an early lesson: central bankers can make you rich or poor.”
But they, like previous dupe cohorts, still remain far too indoctrinated to have learned the corollary: The ONLY central bankers can can make you rich or poor. Entirely at their own arbitrary discretion.
When push comes to shove, that’s the essence of speculation the last 20 years. Ride the Fed’s coat tails.
The selling price must cover the inflated cost of replacement. Rising prices merely reflect hyper inflation. Corporations say they cannot hire qualified people. They aren’t offering a salary that would pay the exorbitant cost of a replacement home and mortgage.
Kackles. Snowball. Hell. Oh, there’s always a chance …
Little inventory due to homes with low existing mortgage rates being kept off the market. Same old story. If rates fall enough for those homeowners to finally justify moving, the situation could be reversed – with a glut of new listings suppressing sale prices despite falling interest rates.
Selling a house and buying a different house has no impact on supply.
will take time, but death, divorce, debt, relocation… etc…………will force many folks to sell…….