I created some charts from a new post-debate poll that shows Biden is weakening fast. I also tie in the latest economic data. 
All data for these polls courtesy of USAToday/Suffolk Poll 2024-07-02. Here are the Poll Questions and Marginals.
Candidates
Democrat: Joe Biden
Republican: Donald Trump
Green Party: Jill Stein
Independent: Robert Kennedy
Independent: Cornel West
Libertarian: Chase Oliver
First and Second Choice
- First Choice: Trump Leads Biden by 3.9 percentage points (PP) on first choice, 41.4 to 37.5
- Second Choice: Trump Leads Biden by 8.4 PP on second choice, 25.2 to 16.6
- Combined: Trump Leads Biden by 12.3 PP on second choice, 25.2 to 16.6
This seems to suggest the that the combination of undecided voters and alternate voters prefer Trump over Biden.
Candidate Preference by Political Party
How Many Independent Voters Are There?
30.1 percent seems like a huge number. But only 18 percent are undecided.
Here’s the math: 0.31 * 0.18 = 5.6 percent of voters. And the second choice seems more likely to be for Trump than Biden. Some will vote for Kennedy and some won’t vote at all.
Is Your Mind Made Up by Political Party
Republicans are very unlikely to change their minds. This is a potential edge for Biden, depending on how independents break.
Republicans are already in the fold. Democrats for Kennedy may switch. And independents may break toward Biden. This is Biden’s best shot (Harris if she replaces Biden).
But the mind changers could also break to toward Trump leading to a rout.
Is Your Mind Made Up by Race
This chart seems to favor Biden but the math is not overwhelming. Blacks are about 14 percent of the population. Even if 100% of them switched to Biden that’s only 0.22 * 0.14 maximum. In practice, the potential is far less because most of them are already in the Biden camp. And some of them may switch from Biden to Kennedy or sit the election out.
Candidate Preference by Race
This chart likely shocks nearly everyone, especially the Democratic party. But it makes perfect sense to me.
In general, these are hard-working US citizens. I saw this first hand in trade groups that helped build our new house. So I am not the least surprised by the chart.
Moreover, Hispanics are more concerned about the economy than whites, even republicans! I will show that in a subsequent post on issues.
Anecdotes are not data. Regardless, and contrary to widespread allegation, the illegals are not voting. There will be a Republican election judge going over every name.
Nothing above implies I am for open borders. I am explicitly not in favor of what’s happening.
Is Your Mind Made Up by Age Group
Given that age group 18-34 is for Trump, perhaps there is some sort of advantage here for Biden if this group switches. But it’s not quite that simple. To see why let’s turn back to candidate preferences.
Candidate Preference by Age Group
An amazing 41 percent of those 18-34 are for Trump with only 30 percent for Biden.
That’s an unprecedented 11 percentage point gap for Republicans. In 2020 this age group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
It poses an opportunity but one that could backfire for Democrats if they try to get more young voters to vote.
This age group has the smallest turnout historically. Do Democrats try to get the youth vote more active? If so, who is the beneficiary?
I suspect it is Republicans who should go after these voters. I can explain why in an economic chart.
Unemployment Rate by Age Group
- Overall: 4.1 Percent
- 16-19: 12.1 Percent
- 20-24: 7.5 Percent
- 25-34: 4.4 Percent
- 35-44: 3.3 Percent
- 45-54: 2.7 Percent
- 55+ 2.8 Percent
Unemployment is up sharply in the 18-34 age group. More on that in a moment. First let’s discuss race.
Unemployment Rate by Race
Unemployment among blacks is up from 4.8 percent to 6.3 percent. This shows up in the above poll. 63 percent support Biden but that is down from normal ranges well above 80 percent.
What’s Going On?
I have been talking about this since February. Let’s go over some more recent posts instead.
On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Q: Who is it that rent?
A: Young adults and blacks.
Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
On June 19, I commented Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.
Those renting have seen the price of rent go up at least 0.4 percent every month for 33 consecutive months.
Meanwhile, the cost of a home has skyrocketed.
Renters (mainly young adults and blacks), have been left behind and it shows up in the polls.
Also see The Unemployment Rate Bottomed a Year Ago, Who’s Impacted the Most?
The leftwing media and economists don’t understand the polls. But there’s the explanation in pictures.
Correction
In the Mind Made Up by Age Group chart, I inadvertently entered 88 instead of 82 for age group 50-64.
Joe thinks he’s the first black vice president and the first Hispanic president of the Rotary Club.
forget rent & demographics – Biden’s dementia (& Dems’ dishonesty) has greatly simplified the electoral equation…
americans. will. not. vote. for. an. overtly. enfeebled. candidate. PERIOD.
further, there is no one anywhere in the world that would believe that americans would elect an enfeebled candidate.
the ‘steal’ is off-the-table… because absolutely no one anywhere will believe or accept that result. not now. not this time. the incumbent candidate is simply not credible.
dems will lose this election. it’s over.
trump is already conducting foreign & domestic policy – his second administration has begun – six months early.
thanks, Joe!!!
The bad news for the country is that these two are our choice for President. In a country of 330 million, is this the best we can do: Genocide Joe or Zion Don?
According to the Lancet, the number of Palestinians murdered with US munitions in Gaza now stands close to 186,000! According to Haaretz, many of those killed on Oct. 7 were at Israel’s hands: probably on the order of 50% to 60%. But because AIPAC bribes our veenal politicans, we are funding the war crimes in Gaza. And both political parties are on board.
“In a country of 330 million, is this the best we can do: Genocide Joe or Zion Don?”
50 years post going full Zimbabwe: Yes. And entirely predictably so.
“We” are a third world country nominally owned, hence ran, by nothing but complete idiots now. It’s not just the Presidency of the US. But also the Presidency of all and every organization within the US. The rot is fully complete. And no less severe than in Cambodia after Pol Pot decided anyone older than 6 or so; could not be trusted with power. Here, The Fed has; in practice; achieved exactly the same result. Resulting in; here as there; every position of wealth and power, being held by noone with aptitude and abilities beyond the level of six year olds. Just look at Biden. He is the very best; most “successful” of them. The rest are worse than that.
Measuring the popular vote nationally, although gives some trend or general information, is mostly irrelevant. One only needs to poll Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and perhaps Virginia, North Carolina and New Hampshire. This list hasn’t changed much. The preoccupation of national polls may also continue to feed the leftists who despise the Electoral College process as they see the race one way but the deciding algorithm (US Constitution) counts them differently.
So, the poll that matters is how have the swing states moved and what are the election laws in each of those states that can be abused, if one were to, ahem, say, abuse them.
One bothersome thing about all this–it detracts from all of the policy that has led the country in a direction that I hope to see changed. There’s no debt ceiling until next year, weird that huh? Border is still wide open, creating stress on social systems and requiring jobs and deficit money to address. Inflation, they say, has slowed but I don’t see many retailers willing to take the peak pricing off, making the official inflation number a joke compared to what is happening at street level. Houses are way too high but I fear policies will be set such that they prevent any meaningful decrease.
Yet we discuss Biden’s mental accuity as if it wasn’t already compromised 4 years ago. One upside, it really has turned the media from mentioning Trump’s name 24x7x365, TDS-like approaches to every story, and commenters using silly monikers like Orange Mussolini Wannabe. The MSM is in typical form, hammering the official narrative in unison as blue horseshoe no longer loves, and thus protects/shields, Biden.
They’ll get back to it soon enough and it will be like a horde of orcs, the scourge moving as one cohesive evil unit.
How much time is spent on validating the signature on each mail-in ballot by poll workers that have perhaps minimal training? Maybe 5 seconds?
Time to up the ante democrat puppet masters. The longer Biden holds on the more you’ll have to pay the Bidens to make him go away. Pull the bandaid and choose another candidate. Now.
Renters and expensive real estate are mostly a coastal state issue – mostly in blue states where environmentalists block development. These votes mostly don’t count, because the states will stay blue.
What is the renter situation in swing states? The national perspective doesn’t mean much.
Quesion: if Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic Party candidate in lieu of Biden, does she vacuum up the Black vote from Trump or others?
I can’t imagine anyone voting for her for any reason, except for the white “Karens,” who are not rational anyhow. Will the average Black voter vote for her simply because she is a woman of “color?”
There is a black person running for president: Cornel West.
And he’s barely showing up in the polls. He’s simply not a viable candidate.
“Will the average Black voter vote for her simply because she is a woman of “color?”
Yes. Among non-Whites, democracy is a racial headcount.
All very interesting. The President is still chosen by the Electoral College and the race will still be decided by the results in the swing States. It would be informative to see the same type of analysis as above for each of the key States.
I appreciate all the time you put into this Mish. Of all the bloggers and podcasters I listen to you’re about the most non partisan. Of course I didn’t feel that way at all when Trump was president and you were bashing him.
Agree: a very thorough analysis.
But Mish is a self-professed Libertarian, which makes him part of a very small political minority. And that’s okay. His analyses are worth visiting every day.
“Regardless, and contrary to widespread allegation, the illegals are not voting. There will be a Republican election judge going over every name”.
This won’t age well. Lest you have forgotten, in 2020 those Republican election judges weren’t even allowed in the buildings. In Philly. And Detroit. And Chicago. Etc.
They are allowing illegals to register. They don’t want or need their actual vote. They need the registrations in order to print ballots, which then will be filled out en masse and stuffed into unattended drop boxes.
C’mon man. Fantasy world if you don’t believe they are going to steal it again.
As you probably know, WI SC just re-instated unattended bulk ballot drop boxes.
Dems may not want to steal the election this go around. I would bet they are going to pull the rug out from under Trump. Things may very well collapse and then the blame will be squarely put on the Trump administration. Time will tell.
Certainly is enough Financial stress encountered by virtually all age groups to be the deciding factor in upcoming election.
Do people choose a Businessman turned politician who knows how to unleash prosperity, or do they believe a person can fill their plate via ideology?
Center Left coalition where Left is only interested in Full control versus govern from Center Right whereby people are free to choose their own destiny.
Should not be a hard decision to compare. Two one term administrations and both with a record of outcome.
Unleasing prosperity through massive deficits and adding yugely to the national debt is more like it.
When you have retarded energy policies, coupled with intentionally inducing supply shortages via increased regulations, higher Taxes for all as a core principle of governance. what a great menu #1 offered up by Biden and his cohorts.
Go ahead and Run on that combo meal.
Looks like Biden has the “student loan” vote. Without the ability to dangle that bribe, he would be toast. His student loan shenanigans have now been deemed illegal by the judiciary branch, so I’m not sure how long (or even why) this farce continues.
I think he made more political enemies over his “student loan shenanigans” than not. Think of all of those that diligently paid back their own student loans and those others who saw it for what it was, an effort to buy votes.
I think it backfired on him by causing a tremendous amount of resentment.
West Side of Chicago, specifically Madison and Central, nowhere near downtown:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN9G9t_alx3KD00RDxgiO3YuxscPbiFmDK5blAReWT0G1ver6jhhfAxWO6ylzVj8MHRh52fjMxO0QJyhikm6BHyDfKhR5GnmDuhzpChWwI4FVkgFLYg5XR5jPdkHxh7vJTGVLGjPuxuWQTOsAN-ryhJxJcKfHXSlYvWeZgvj_EPq1nuAxyYNRj/s1299/015%20Rally.png
That will be interesting. I will be curious as to how it is covered by the mainstream media, aka the Democratic Party press.
I’d vote for Mish, assuming you can delegate.
In the “Is Your Mind Firmly Made Up?” chart, the 50-64 age group percentages are:
88 + 16 + 2 = 106 percent. The math is off.
I will check that out. Had to enter data manually.
Thanks fixed
I entered 88 twice
Should have been 82
If you think every name is being looked at, I’d encourage you to go work an election sometime.
I vote at a very small precinct in northern Idaho. They very much examine all voter IDs. What astounds me is that places places elsewhere (other states, I’m told) allow voting without requiring a legal ID. Probably a blue state vs red state thing.