NAR-reported median prices will now decline for many months.
The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales rise 2.0% in July.
Six Key Highlights
- Existing-home sales rise 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million.
- Sales are up 0.8% year-over-year.
- Median existing-home price for all housing types is $422,400 the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- Total housing inventory is down 0.6% from May and increased 15.9% from June 2024 (1.32 million).
- Supply is 4.6 months at the current monthly sales pace, down from 4.7 months in June and up from 4 months in July 2024.
- Sales are down 36.8 percent from the cycle high of 6.34 million in January of 2022.
Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist Comments
“The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices. Condominium sales increased in the South region, where prices had been falling for the past year.”
“Near-zero growth in home prices suggests that roughly half the country is experiencing price reductions. Overall, homeowners are doing well financially. Only 2% of sales were foreclosures or short sales – essentially a historic low. The market’s health is supported by a cumulative 49% home price appreciation for a typical American homeowner from pre-COVID July 2019 to July this year,” Dr. Yun continued.
“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”
What a total bunch of self-serving crock. If people were in a great position, there would be more sales.
Affordability is in the gutter and the economy is slowing.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
With sales flatlining, year-over-year numbers will bounce around zero.
Existing-home sales Median Sales Price
It males little sense to not seasonally adjust prices but that is what’s available.
Prices peak in June every year so we can expect strong declines over the next six months.
I believe the post-Covid top is in for quite some time.
The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again
On July 29, 2025, I reported The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index declined another 0.3 percent in May.
Prices have dropped, but the Case-Shiller National index is up 52.1 percent since January 2020. The decline is barely noticeable.
Buyer Traffic Very Low
On August 18, 2025, I commented Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Remains Weak, Buyer Traffic Very Low
The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
Housing cannot gain traction as mortgage rates are still too high and prices remain out of sight.
Most Completed Home For Sale Since the Great Recession
Also note Home Builders Have the Most Completed Home For Sale Since the Great Recession
You have to go back to July 2009 to find more completed homes for sale.
Factor in rising home inventories, lags, and a slowing economy. Home price pressures are hugely negative.
Just have to wonder, if cooperate and foreign investors were eliminated from single family home ownership how many affordable homes would be on the market?
Nationally Yes, Regionally No. Midwest and Northeast won’t feel any decline unless massive unemployment happens. Economy still chugging along in those areas. Inventory is 50% below 2019. Multiple offers still happening in most areas in SE Michigan where I live. Restaurants booked, Mall very busy. This article is not relevant for 30% of this country.
That’s okay, us fat cats in the NE area have never mattered to the red voters of our nation, they’d rather see us dead. We’re used to it.
“Existing-Home Sales Rise 2 Percent to Nowhere, Expect Steep Price Declines”
I sure as hell hope so. Property taxes & insurance are gonzo.
Zuk lives modestly in Palo Alto. He bough 11 house nearby. He built a 7,000SF bunker below, with cameras and security guards, for his wife and daughters. His neighbors are selling. He bought a 25M house in DC. In Hawaii he built a $300 million bunker underneath his beach property which is x3 times as large as central park.
Sheesh.
Your concerns are off by at least one order of magnitude, perhaps two.
Millions are for incidental expenses.
Zuk, Bezus, Ilan. Sam Altman and other billionaires have been building comfortable bunkers.
He just likes to see how many downvotes he can get with his inane nonsense
O/T: “Pro-peace” Donnie threatens Russia with deep strikes:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-82225-peace-talks-unravel
Well, that lasted long. /s
Russia needs to understand how outmatched they are militarily. A bunch of antique weapons and alcoholic conscripts is nothing against the US military.
The Cheeto Pedo’s bullshit bingo landed on a winner this time.
I share your dislike for the “Cheeto Pedo”. But, where do you get your news about the NATO-Russia battle in Ukraine or the relative strengths of militaries? No, don’t tell me. Just please ask yourself which prior NATO wars your sources *from the outset* opposed and claimed were based on lies and would therefore kill millions for no good reason.
As I’ve alluded to a couple others here, I’m an old fuck and lost my patience trying to convince people of much. I presume you’re not going to suddenly “wake up” and seek alternative news and views about NATO’s wars. So, I’ll just put you on “ignore”, so I don’t spend more time trying to wake you up.
Are you trying to tell me that the US wouldn’t have been able to take Kiev after 3 years? That we’d be fielding WW2 tanks? That’s we’d be conscripting criminals and North Koreans for our human waves?
Sure, they have ICBMs, but how many are actually functional, and how many have been gutted and the uranium sold by the corrupt military leadership?
I don’t need to look at the screaming tree monkeys on newsmax to figure this out.
Russia has 5x the population of Ukraine, and have been unable to take it. They are getting their infrastructure and strategic weapons destroyed way beyond the front line.
The Russians are a disaster as a people, and have been for centuries.
Russia could take Kiev in a week but they know that’s exactly what the neocons, the MIC and NATO want him to do…”start” WW3.
Russia has been destroying Ukraine’s military with minimal civilian deaths. The U.S. killed 600,000 people – mostly civilians – in Iraq. In Gaza, 83% of the deaths have been civilians – according to the IDF. Russia doesn’t do war the way America does – with carpet bombing and napalm. America does “shock and awe” and hangs a “Mission Accomplished” banner but ultimately leaves the status quo ante. Slow and steady wins the race. What Russia has conquered in Ukraine they will keep. It was really always Russia anyway.
It’s amazing that the areas still going up in price are pushing the national median price up, despite the huge price declines in Texas and Florida.
The housing supply charts for Chicago illustrate why prices are still going up there. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU16980
Supply in Chicago declined starting in 2020 and fell for the next 3 years. The interest rate increases in 2022 had the effect of tightening the market further, resulting in prices going up even higher.
Supply has finally been going up the past year, but only about 5% on a year over year basis, which is not enough to make a difference.
I’m seeing prices get cut about 10% before anything sells in the PNW. New listing prices have plateaued or dropped because of the comps, and sale prices have dropped.
There was a bit of a pickup in pendings in July/August, but that was matched by a flood of new listings.
Title is this – Chicago-Naperville-Elgin.
Meaning, going back about 4 generations (“-blank- will never cross Western Avenue”), it includes people moving about 3 – 5 miles this way or that way. On the other side of this expressway or that railroad yard. From this school district to that school district. Around / after the 2020 Summer Of Love, it’s been the Lincoln Park / Gold Coast / Hipster Cubbylanders moving to out to the ‘burbs for “a big back yard”, speaking in code. There are many properties on the south and west side of the city proper which could not be given away; negative value with a demo.
Powell doesn’t know a debit from a credit. Powell thinks banks are intermediaries. If Powell drops rates anytime soon, deflation won’t occur.
Powell clearly knows all about debits and credits, so that is attack is preposterous. Powell will drop rates based on: one, inflations goes down; two, unemployment rate goes up. Trump wants rates cut because of desperation and economic foolishness.
Preposterous. Banks don’t lend deposits. Deposits are the result of lending/investing. All bank-held savings are derivative deposits as anyone who has applied double-entry bookkeeping on a national scale should already know. An increase in TDs, interest-bearing deposits, depletes DDs, demand deposits, dollar for dollar.
“Should Commercial banks accept savings deposits?” Conference on Savings and Residential Financing 1961 Proceedings, United States Savings and loan league, Chicago, 1961, 42, 43.
It’s a confusion of stock vs. flow.
See: “The Riddle of Money Finally Solved” by Dr. Philip George.
Powell:
#1 “there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time”
#2 “Inflation is not a problem for this time as near as I can figure. Right now, M2 [money supply] does not really have important implications. It is something we have to unlearn.”
#3 “the correlation between different aggregates [like] M2 and inflation is just very, very low”.
The Phillips curve was denigrated in the 1960’s.
The unemployment rate is amongst the lowest level in history.
On the day the market bottomed, I repeated myself 3 times:
That’s B.S.
Bottom’s in.
Mar 23, 2020. 10:34 AM
Link
Margin Call: The Story Of A Historic Week – The Heisenberg
Bottom for stocks, not the economy. It will decouple.
Mar 23, 2020. 10:33 AM
Link
We Likely Saw The Bottom – Michael A. Gayed, CFA
The bottom’s in.
Mar 23, 2020. 10:28 AM
——————-
I’ve hit almost all bottoms and tops.
Remember the time Alan Greenspam told the autistic doctor who bought the credit default swaps that he made a lucky guess?
Thank you for your brilliant insight, random anonymous internet person.
El Trumpedo…not to offend, but isn’t everyone on this site pretty much a ‘random anonymous internet person?’
Yup, and most of us are stuffed top-full with wild blueberry muffins.
“The market’s health is supported by a cumulative 49% home price appreciation for a typical American homeowner from pre-COVID July 2019 to July this year,” Dr. Yun continued.
His statement gives away the issue with housing and everything else…the 49% appreciation in 6 years in the costliest asset/expense in a household’s portfolio along with all other goods and services is just now seeing wage growth exceeding it. The country is going to either have to see prices decrease and/or time run off the clock to allow the wage growth to absorb that amount of inflation. If wages were keeping up we wouldn’t be seeing a locked up market, even at these rates, nor Target and Walmart both seeing impacts. We wouldn’t see Mish posts asking how our market-basket of groceries or homeowners insurance compares. Quite simply it is and has always been the inflation, with the banksters and their government hucksters going way off the rails the last go round(s) of stimulus and money printing and are finding out the consumer does indeed have a limit. Everyone everywhere is still working through it. A large well-off set of folks who already own their home(s) and had jobs paying more than inflation for decades are just fine; the renters as Mish mentioned in the last election do not. Bifurcation seems just fine to those on the “ahead” side of the ledger.
So so many policy errors. One might say at least 37 trillion of them and increasing.
You hit the hammer on the head Bill. I saw this coming years ago and why I came up with “It’s xxx turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up.”
We are approaching a mathematical aberration with the current economic paradigm that will be extremely painful – like depression level painful.
Extrapolate a continuous 3% or higher inflation rate on food, insurance, utilities, and other critical non-mortgage expenses and the cost of housing becomes irrelevant because the cost of survival becomes unsustainable. I estimate extreme pain around 2030 which is an ironic date and the ~100 anniversary of the great depression.
It’s also why I ask….got exit strategy because if you don’t, you’ll be in a world of hurt unless you’re a billionaire of course.
The cancer is metastasizing now and there is nothing that will cure it.
CSPAN bs. Option #1: SPX drops 1,500 pts before 7.5K/8K. Option #2: down
1,500 pts, up to a lower high, before reaching/breaching 2022 high.
In Oct 2008 the Fed raided to save the banks. Later on to save the RE market. In 2020 the Fed raided again to save lives and businesses. Thereafter the gov printed $7T to elect Kamala. Again: no mistake !
The payment of interest on interbank demand deposits, reserve balances, lowers the real rate of interest. In 2008 TDs vs. DDs hit an all-time high. Then Bernanke destroyed the nonbanks by illegally raising policy rates per the FSRRA of 2006.
Since then, there’s been a reversal in AD. The ratio of DDs to TDs has doubled under Powell.
But savings dissipated in financial investment, or impounded in idle savings, or as leakages in transfer payments, are stoppages in the flow of funds derived from the main income stream and have a direct and immediate dampening impact on the economy.
Prof, In Oct 2008 Bernanke Short (Selling) people’s bank accounts and saving accounts to save the banks. Yellen cont to Short until 2014 to save RE. In 2020 JP short to save the comatose econ and people’s live. That’s was the cause. It became legal in 2006.
There are 40 million vacant homes in 2025 out of est 145 million . Most are seasonal vacation homes (rented/occupied less than180 days/Y). As long as the econ is ok those homes produce cash flow. If it stops a few will be for sales. In 2007 the vacancy rate was 14.4% due to a glut. In 2025 it’s 13.8% due to Vbro and Airbnb and others. Most of them will stay put for better days. Their owners will hang on. WFH isn’t dead. Base44 will keep it alive.
We have two housing markets.
In pandemic locations, steep price declines are in the cards because work from home is over. Worse, builders slapped up a bunch of new homes in pandemic locations They thought work from home was going to be forever.
In classic big cities that have jobs, they are seeing a healthy housing market. People are moving back since work from home is over, and builders did not put up new homes in those locations.
People that relocated to pandemic locations really screwed up. To return to the office, they will sell a home in a weak pandemic market, then pay top dollar in a big coastal city, just so they can keep their job.
If work from home were over, commercial real estate wouldn’t be falling apart.
100%. My wife works from home 2 days a week. She could work 5 but company policy(we are within 35 miles of an corporate office) wont allow it. She works out of a ticketing system and deals with vendors on the phone all day. All of her team are in other states along with her bosses. She still has to drive to work 3 days a week to an 4K sq ft empty office that used to be the local HQ to sit with literally 1 to 2 other people that are still left in our state. It is crazy to me the company doesn’t sub-lease the building out.
They probably can’t sublease. The company I worked for dumped all but one of their offices and went fully remote in 2021, and they had a hell of a time getting them subleased. It’s probably near impossible now.
Didn’t Pinterest pay over $80 million to break a lease as lead tenant for 400K sq ft in a new skyscraper being built in SanFrancisco? I think the managers determined that the workers could work just as well from home as from an expensive office building in San Fran.
I was working in SF before covid, during boom times. It wasn’t just the rent… it was also the outings to expensive restaurants, the in house baristas and breweries, the laundry service, the happy hours, the snack rooms on every floor, and the in house kitchens serving breakfast, lunch and dinner. I even attended a Christmas party on top of the Moscone center that featured an entire troupe of contortionists and acrobats swinging from the rafters.
That stuff was crazy expensive, and since most places had it, they all felt compelled to compete.
It was fun, but I am much happier seeing another 50% in my pay now.
79 Percent of CEOs Say Remote Work Will Be Dead in 3 Years or Less
https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/79-percent-of-ceos-say-remote-work-will-be-dead-in-3-years-or-less.html
They have been saying that for 4 years now.
Funny, my house is crowded with people who are working from home. Today.
The housing market is showing a topping process. The rate of price increase from the July 2024 to July 2025 (seasonal peaks) is less than the rate of price increase from July 2023 to July 2024. The same relation exists for the months of May and July.
Anecdotally, I’m hearing ads on the radio by real estate agent claiming it’s a buyer’s market and that sellers need someone with the skills to get them the best price.
timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. smells like summer of 2007 in r/e. but stagflation on top of weakening economy. perhaps the 1970s nixon years. by 2026 there will be Repugs asking PEDOTUS trump to step down and let Peter Thiel’s boyfriend to run the grifter empire of debt.
Not even close! 2007 had massive mortgage fraud and the rating agencies were selling fraudulent securities in the form of packaged loans. This will be a slow housing downturn, not a collapse.
Stocks on the other hand are in for a solid spanking come fall.
in phoenix the top was in 2005. went sideways like it is now for 2 years. summer of 2007 when BSC mortgage funds melted, it started to go down…. until 2012. that’s 7 years. i waited and bought up a bunch of very high cap rate properties in 2012. i remember buying a property in 1988 in brooklyn ny, and selling it 13 years later for a loss………bought at the top. sold at the bottom. lesson was invaluable.
There was no change in means-of-payment money supply prior to the GFC for 4 whole years. Powell hasn’t come close to that type of restriction.
I don’t about that Frosty. If housing values drop 25% people who bought post pandemic will be eating 100K plus on a loan that is at a high interest rate and won’t be able to refi, just like last time. Are they gonna stay in that home or give it back to the bank? The only caveat is that there will not be tax forgiveness like under Obummer.
A slow downturn is one that plays out over the course of many years. In fact just the price going sideways for 3-4 years is the equivalent of a slight downturn since inflation will continue to run at 3% or more.
So if we get a slight downturn between now and 2030 people who bought post covid will be fine.
Nobody was really aware of that until after it all blew up. I’m sure the ghouls behind that stuff have figured out new ways to steal and get bailed out by now.
The FED covered its “Elephant Tracks” (like “Black Monday”)
We knew the precise “Minskey Moment” of the GFC:
POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM |
The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006.
10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47 * temporary bottom
11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14
12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44
01/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59
02/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45
03/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06
04/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04
05/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09
06/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20
07/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32
08/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15
09/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00
10/1/2008,,,,,, -0.20 * possible recession
11/1/2008,,,,,, -0.10 * possible recession
12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession
RoC trajectory as predicted.
Nothing has changed in 100 + years.
Prior to the 2007/2008 crash, Fannie Mae was doing zero-down (“My Community Mortgage”) loans that allowed a 64.99% debt-to-income ratio. If you had a 740 credit score and no other debt, a person grossing $5,000/month would get approved for a $3.249 house payment. Those loans were destined for foreclosure.
…and nobody went to prison, especially the Ivy League MBAs on Wall Street.
The Big Short: Ending scene “Sell it ALL”
i grew up on wall street, in a hood with generations doing the same. my twisted old pals would LOL at destroying savings and loans by selling them junk bonds in the 80s. very twisted industry for a very twisted war mongering empire. the farmers started snap so they could feed garbage to poor folks with the USG picking up the tab and risk. the MIC, the farmers, wall street are just tip of twisted sick fucks in this world wide war mongering empire of debt.
The DIDMCA destroyed the S&L’s as predicted in May 1980.
It turned 38,000 financial intermediaries into 38,000 commercial banks.
that and the 1986 tax code change. wiped out so many juicy tax loss loopholes.
Iceland sent a bunch of theirs to prison. Unfortunately Iceland is tiny.
icelandic folks surrounded the president of iceland’s house with pitchforks and burning torches. amerikans rolled over and beat on the occupy wall street folks. in italy and greece they torched banks……….and even killed a few bankers.
Most of us are too damn fat to walk 10 blocks, let alone stand around holding a sign and holler for 4 hours.
All that needs to happen is for one of the big AI companies to tip over and realize it’s true valuation, and the shit will hit the fan.
this seems like the bubble of everything. from crap houses in crap counties, to AI stocks and beyond. we all remember when a benjamin was baller money. now it’s not even enough for 2 at some decent restaurant with a tip.
Commercial bank credit is still increasing. The FED is not tight.
Florida lawmaker floats ban on HOAs amid growing backlash
https://www.tampabay28.com/news/state/florida-lawmaker-floats-ban-on-hoas-amid-growing-backlash
That will work just fine for condos with shared walls…
HOAs have been in existence for 60+ years so the question is what is driving the huge outcry? Inflation – the HOA costs are merely rising in reaction to inflation and it will only get worse as cheap labor is deported so costs will rise.
Read my comment under Bill’s post where I explain that we are entering the point of no return.
The asshole knob got dialed up to 11 during covid. There is no good governance, anywhere.