You have to go back to July 2009 to find more completed homes for sale.
Stage of Construction Details
- Total: 511,000 Most since 518,000 in July of 2007.
- Started + Completed: 390,000 matching May 2008
- Under Construction: 271,000 vs 279,000 in June 2007
- Completed: 119,000 The most since 126,000 in July 2009
- Not Started: 121,000 A new record
I do not consider empty lots a home for sale. Nonetheless, it’s another sign of a speculative problem.
The number of completed homes for sale did not surpass the speculative housing bubble peak of 194,000 ahead of the great recession, but this is a very elevated number.
The best measure of builder commitment is completed plus under constriction. These units have big carrying costs. The current 390,000 matches that of May 2008 in the middle of the Great Recession.
New Homes for Sale Supply in Months
The Commerce Department says the supply of homes for sale is 9.8 months. But that assumes you are willing to call empty lots a “home for sale”.
It really doesn’t matter much because the trends are all the same.
On the finished side, 2.3 percent supply does not seem outrageous. However, the number of units in the lead chart reeks of builder speculation.
The second problem with the supply calculations is they are based on current sales. Will they hold up? Are they even accurate?
New Home Sales Stagnate as Homes for Sale Hits New Post-Covid High
Earlier today I noted New Home Sales Stagnate as Homes for Sale Hits New Post-Covid High
New Home Sales
- Sales of new single-family houses in June 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 627,000.
- This is 0.6 percent (±13.3 percent) above the May 2025 rate of 623,000, and is 6.6 percent (±16.2 percent) below the June 2024 rate of 671,000.
- Note the margin of error on the 0.6 percent rise.
So, sales are up 0.6 percent ±13.3 percent.
If there is another big leg down in sales, and there will be in recession, these months’ supply figures will soar.
I expect huge price pressures on completed, and also on started but not sold homes.
In case you missed it, please see Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High
Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.
I believe the NAR new price record is bogus. I will explain in a third housing post.
these numbers should be adjusted for population growth
NO!
Existing home sales yes, New Home sales no.
Why? Higher population would lead to increase in demand for both existing homes as well as new homes. Different preferences which I am assuming remain broadly constant at a population level.
My mom is well into retirement. She owns two houses. My brother will get one, and I will get the other. He may keep his as rental property until his son becomes an adult. They live only 4 miles away from mom. I will definitely sell mine because it is in New York State. So there will be selling pressure and “family moving in” over the next 5 years.
It was not that long ago, that I was nervous about the papered over recession coming back to haunt us, and the Housing Market collapse. Not so much anymore.
DOGE it appears, will soon begin releasing massive funds back into the Federal Government coffers. Countless Countries and Corporations have started throwing Trillions into Investments In America, and with unemployment already low, it’s about to become non-existent. Add in the massive wave of retirements from Baby-boomers and man do you have a hotbed of activity on the way…
And as the older boomers continue to die off, they are gifting trillions of cash, stocks, bonds, & homes to their kids which will continue to provide buoyancy for the housing market.
Absolutely! Many have multiple homes, or rentals too. I know several personally that have been gifting such now, before they do pass on. There is a ton of money sitting with Boomers, and not all obviously, as many are hurting. Also a lot of Money is sitting in the markets invested, and that will be pulled out in many cases as well. So we have cash, property, businesses, rentals, existing homes Etc. Much cash staying in the markets, but much will be cashed out too, I am guessing. Homes rented and sold too, and business opportunities will arise for some as well. Lots of addition, comes with the subtraction of Life!!!
I can’t tell if this is satire or not.
It’s either that or a serious case of cope.
I’m personally all set, so I don’t care myself. I am just pointing out the obvious. Well to people older such as myself, that have been through this already countless times. It’s pretty much the exact same with everyone I know and talk to.
I own a house, so I would sell one left to me. At my age, I am not playing landlord. I have cash, and investments, so I pocket the money, take a hell of a trip in remembrance of the People that left it to me. Too late in life to take on another business, and I don’t care to anyway, so again, Sold!
Reality is all, based on history as a guide…
But there’s no bubble and everything is fine.
That’s right: It’s baked into the cake they’ll let us eat.
Brioche for the proletariats, actually.
Marie-Antoinette
The amount of new listings (of existing homes) in my market is double last years numbers for the last 3 months. Albeit last years numbers were low (as were 2023’s), but, doubling in 1 year says that, for whatever reason, sellers are now willing to sell. But, buyers aren’t buying (at least in my areas). Which means, in the next few months, after the summer selling season is over, there are going to be lots of homes still on the market and the only thing that is going to get them sold, is going to be price drops.
I agree. If the economy stays fairly strong & mortgage rates stay upwards of 7%. Next year should bring even broader declines which is what’s needed. In my area that’s been very hot up until late last year, prices are starting to fall. I for one am looking forward to a lower property tax next year and for my homeowner’s insurance to stop rising.
Everything you said made sense until you assumed that lower values would mean lower property taxes and insurance. I am old enough to remember when our trade problems w/Cuba caused sugar prices to triple and baked goods tripled as well. Eventually, sugar prices came back down … but bakery prices never did.
GA made a big adjustment to their property tax law last year. Nowadays, every county uses the exact same method for determining property taxes & how to appeal your assessment. I was going to appeal last month when I got my assessment, then I came to understand that all counties only use the prior CY data. When I was looking at July 2024 – June 2025, about 80% of the houses already had their values cut due to lower sales prices. If the market goes the way it should, my property taxes hopefully will fall. Insurance isn’t a guarantee, but I would be happy with a couple of years of a minor increase. It’ll probably take a recession to push down insurance rates and even then it won’t be much, unless it’s a really severe recession.
I now see you knew. Good Luck! I was not so lucky unfortunately…
I think Texas still allows it’s counties to use 2 year old house price data or last year’s. So if prices are dropping, you have to protest to force them to use last year’s data.
Out of curiosity, why will your property tax be lower? I live in NH, and by Law every 5 Years, NH must redo property taxes. My year 5 was last year, and my property taxes went up by 50%!!
You probably have already, which is why you expect it to be lower, but not often the case.
Is your States property tax review up this year?
New homes are not even a thing in Massachusetts unless they are high end builds.
I did find an example of a rare newer build in an urban area (Springfield, Mass.) https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/42-Ringgold-St-Springfield-MA-01107/2062097274_zpid/
Springfield is not a desirable city to live in and this is not a good neighborhood. Surrounding houses were selling for around $100K 10 years ago (you couldn’t give them away) and now those same houses are valued at $350-$400K.
If you look at the price increase history of the houses on this street, it shows how wacky the prices in this area have become since 2020 and they are still going up.
On a tangential point, North Carolina can be tough to work in this time of year (95 degrees w/95% humidity) … but I will deal w/that before trying to work when my hands are so cold I can’t feel them. I respect northern contractors … those guys must be from hardy stock.
In the North (I’m originally from Canada). They frame in the summer and do all the inside work in the winter. That way they working all year but only outdoors in the warmer weather.
That makes the most sense. It would end up with clumped finish times for homes … but I’ve done outside work in extreme heat and cold … and I’ll take the extreme heat every time.
There are a lot more homes completed than being reported as completed. Until there is a credit event, we won’t have insight into just how many there are. False scarcity is the best way to push up prices.
What are they doing with them? You can’t leave them empty or they rot (esp in Florida with mold) and cities and counties want their property taxes.
So who is eating this cost of thousands a month in taxes and maintenance?
When your options are to either lower prices by 20% to move inventory or to hold back on hooking the home up to city electric and water so the supply will match demand, which option do you think builders are choosing? I’m talking about builders, not flippers.
Yet others are saying that we are still experiencing a major housing shortage and likely will until 2030 or beyond. I believe the current peeks will reduce if/when rates drop. With inflation at 2.5%, mortgages at 7% seems higher than the normal spread. I am still looking for that capital gains relief (at least index it for inflation so we’re not paying phantom gains) and I will do my part to increase supply and make housing more affordable.