The housing picture remains grim. 
Housing cannot gain traction as mortgage rates are still too high and prices are out of sight.
Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August, 2025.
Key Findings
- Current sales conditions fell one point to 35.
- Sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43.
- Traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 22 but remains at a very low level.
- 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months.
- The average price reduction was 5% in August, the same as it’s been every month since last November.
- The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Since 1985
The HMI is not as depressed as during the Great Recession, the 1991 recession, or the Covid recession but it is historically very weak.
NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index vs Mortgage Rates
Average mortgage rates are through July. The Index is through August.
Notably, buyer traffic went in a deep plunge when mortgage rates approached 5 percent.
The current mortgage rate from Mortgage News Daily is 5.69 percent.
However, home prices continued to rise so it would take a huge drop in price as well before there is a meaningful improvement in affordability.
Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent
On July 23, I reported Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High
Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.
That alleged Median Price Record did not happen. The NAR does a terrible job at seasonal adjustments (if it tries at all).
Click on above link for discussion. And expect rapid decline now in NAR median prices.
Most Completed Home For Sale Since the Great Recession
Also note Home Builders Have the Most Completed Home For Sale Since the Great Recession
You have to go back to July 2009 to find more completed homes for sale.
Factor in rising home inventories, lags, and a slowing economy. Home price pressures are hugely negative.
The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again
On July 29, 2025, I reported The Housing Top Is Likely In, Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Again
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index declined another 0.3 percent in May.
Prices have dropped, but the Case-Shiller National index is up 52.1 percent since January 2020.
Although price pressures are hugely negative, affordability is in the gutter.
Thanks for the article. I disagree that mortgage rates are too high, because they are still being artificially suppressed by the mortgage backed securities being held by the federal reserve. The fed governors, who were appointed by BOTH the republicans and the democrats, “bought” these MBS with money created from nothing. No goods or services were produced to compensate for that money. This artificial demand pushed down the rates that were needed to compensate for the risk of the mortgage defaulting. If this gigantic amount of over two thousand billion dollars of MBS that the fed still holds and that they never should have “bought” in the first place were to have to be absorbed by the free market, when they were first sold, or now, it would rightfully push rates higher for real people to take on that risk instead of the govt putting the risk and damage of cheap debt enabled speculation and hoarding on the country. This suppression has led to the huge mess of excessively high housing prices that has been smothering people, smothering the US economy. Anyone not happy about soaring property taxes, high or dropped home insurance, high rents, HOAs, condo assessments, etc. look no further. These soaring costs are not at all surprising if you are paying attention to what the republicans and democrats have done and continue to do, like deficit spending the national debt a trillion dollars higher every hundred days. There has been a choice on the ballot for a long time to balance the budget and let the free market determine rates and thats the Libertarian party. But if people think that is throwing away your vote or helping either the republicans or democrats, ok, thats your perpective, but inflation should be no surprise if either the Republicans or the Democrats win.
Interesting. There are three houses in walking distance that have been listed for months, no takers, but the owners refuse to lower the asking prices.
on the other hand two new houses have been built on undeveloped lots.
There is no chance I would be buying additional real estate now with three and half years of this Trump nightmare in front of our economy. We all saw what happened last time… Massive inflation of the money supply and giveaways by Trump after the economy started to tank under the weight of the tariffs. Then of course ~ Trump totally blew it with Covid.
The fact that Trump is militarizing our cities in anticipation of civil unrest is a strong signal that he knows things are not going to go well for the American people.
I am probably a bit early, but it is time to lighten up on my stock portfolio as well.
Worst case is I am sitting on a pile of cash earning a paltry 4.8% interest and a couple dozen quality stocks that pay reliable dividends. My crops will keep growing and bees will keep producing honey. I will continue to care for my family, friends, employees and neighbors.
All the best!
It will be far worse than you can imagine but you can’t say you weren’t warned.
Under Democrats in California, most are priced out of home ownership. Gavin Newsom certainly blew it with Covid, keeping Disneyland closed for an entire year for no good reason. Even signed a law threatening doctors, if they didn’t parrot the official propaganda on Covid treatments.
It’s incredible how much the housing index fell and remained depressed from its top and not have a recession called. The other time a sudden drop occurred was in the 1990’s, but that was exceptionally short lived.
Last Fri the Dow made a new all time high. NVDA is $4,4T. In most cities house prices are much higher than in 2007. Plenty room to go down. The unemployment rate is 4.2%. The economy is ok. Trillions are pouring in. The tariffs effects are unknown ==> no reasons cut rates and to prove that Trump cannot bend the Fed will.
There is a lot of chin music clamoring for lower interest rates, and one reason is to lower the cost of mortgage debt. I believe that is short sighted as when interest on mortgages goes down, home prices compensate by going up. the purchaser is faced with a higher purchase price pushing up his require principle to execute the buy. But the higher purchase price means paying lower interest rate on a larger principle so the entry level home buyer may still be priced out of an entry level home. If the fed meddles with lowering rates, they will most likely need to infuse more money to get that results in more inflation in a market that is already showing signs of heating inflation.
While I believe rates left to free market price discovery would be higher, I cannot know that for sure nor can anyone else including the fed governors or the current occupants of the administration’s comfy office chairs. Best policy at this juncture is to let the markets sort out interest rate direction and the fed follow the lead. I know Trump will howl at the thought of higher rates, but the damage done by overriding the free market determined rate would far exceed the short-term benefit via inflation, malinvestment and incentive for congress expanding the debt. If the rate needs to be higher, then congress will have to make hard spending decisions to cut the deficit first, then the debt to get service cost down. It is the only discipline left pushing our politicians to do the right thing.
I know kill me later wrong thread BUT read it and weep.
China firm plans world’s first pregnancy humanoid robot using artificial womb
The innovation uses artificial amniotic fluid and nutrient delivery via hose, replicating natural gestation, now to be integrated into humanoid robots
Jijo Malayil
A Chinese tech firm is racing to deliver what could be the world’s first “gestation robot”.
The idea from Kaiwa Technology, based in Guangzhou, involves a humanoid designed with an artificial womb embedded in its abdomen, intended to carry a fetus through ten months of gestation and deliver a baby, according to Chinese media outlets.
Slated for debut by 2026 and expected to sell for under 100,000 yuan (around $13,900), the robot aims to offer a pregnancy alternative for those who wish to avoid the burdens of human gestation.
Prepare for an army of highly pneumatic Chinese strumpets, decanted from a mechanical womb near you.
Why would it need to be in a robot? Wouldn’t a stationary gestation machine be better? This sounds pretty fake to me.
Robot can self repair if there is an error code.
Plus if it is in home then the owners may be liable for any failure.
How many knocked up women plop down beside someone so you can feel the baby kick?
If the device were somewhere one had to travel it makes that “first kick” harder to time.
Whoops forgot this classic
Wells Fargo Agrees to Pay $3 Billion to Resolve Criminal and Civil Investigations into Sales Practices Involving the Opening of Millions of Accounts without Customer AuthorizationFriday, February 21, 2020
“..,where stagecoach robs you!”
Regulator finds ‘deficiencies’ in Wells Fargo’s anti-money laundering controls
Published Thu, Sep 12 2024
( Oh yeah I trust them now)
Im thinking fire insurance is playing a part in ca.
prob regular ins in other places.
Zillow home prices (going down)/ Average hourly earnings (going up). This ratio will cont to decline for years.
Yeah, Ben Bernanke should be in jail for bankrupting half the home builders.
3 houses for sale in my neighborhood for months. Vintage. 2 sold in the last 3 weeks. One for 1.5 and one for 1.7. Both discounted, but not crazy discounts. Last 1 is 2 plus. All close to 100 years old.
I am sorry but those are insane prices.
Would you happen to know the original pricing so as to compare inflation?
By the way my area has loads of vintage handcrafted hundred year old homes for way less than those two.
If you have the address, you can click on the property history in Zillow/Realtor etc and see the sale price history going back decades.
As always, the only 3 words that matter in real estate are ‘location, location, location’ which is why homes in his area are selling for multiples of what homes in your area are.
Zillow and Redfin will reset the history if the seller re-lists, which has been happening a lot. Realtor.com has the full history.
That’s the asking price. The sales price that gets registered can not be changed.
The value is in seeing how far the asking price was dropped before it ‘sold for asking’.
Where ignorance is bliss tis folly to be wise.
Doing recent auto research I found the main complaints on one to be the cup holders were odd and one woman had to purchase her own usb c cables.
Nothing about engine or transmission.
Location, recently I was watching a Brit Cold Case show Waking the Dead. One episode mentioned how money was laundered through show people purchasing expensive homes.
I knew about the Coke housing boom in Fla but never considered entertainment as mob money laundering.
To be fair, look at the places that were nothing until a handful of rich folk started some festival or event and suddenly home prices rose.
Anyone smart would be selling small town USA.
Move in ten rich folk then the rest follow like lemmings.
The red fingered Homppath IDF poster liked the cupholders.
Very desirable older neighborhood close to downtown Fort Worth and Texas Christian University.
I follow a dozen real estate YouTubers and the consensus from all of them is that real estate market has crashed. It’s so bad realtors are now DoorDashing for cash which happened during the last crash in 2008. Don’t know how bad it will get but you gotta remember that the market bottom took till 2012.
So if we’re starting the crash it won’t be till 2029 for the bottom to set in or maybe longer since this was a “fraud” crash. Not sure how the boomer retiring thing plays into this but that can’t be good either. Zoomers & Millenials don’t need or want five bedroom houses so who will buy these over-sized dinosaurs?
It took the reduction in FDIC insurance to bolster housing.
Realtors driving Uber, etc.has been going on because the number of closed transactions isn’t high enough to support most of them. That’s a separate issue (to some degree) from home values. Home values have collapsed in some areas (Florida) and stayed relatively high in other areas due to restricted “supply”….so far. The not-yet-collapsed areas include the Midwest and Northeast.
Duh, isn’t that why the AI bubble inflated to compensate for the housing deflation?
Next will be turning all “cash” into stablecoins.
the prices haven’t crashed, so the recession in realtors isn’t indicative of that. it’s indicative of a labor glut.
too many that became realtors when interest rates were zero to 3%.
If WF has it’s tentacles on it, it is considered unbuyable.
I hate all private banks because they all take money from taxpayers during various financial crises and suffer only wrist slaps for criminal cases but especially hate that company over some stories.
We the people could’ve punished these banks at least a little by moving our money to credit unions or any bank that didn’t need TARP. But, alas, no matter which friend or family member I suggested this to, they didn’t do shit. So, who’s to blame? Argh.
The banks should be nationalized and driven out of the savings business, which would make them more profitable.
Someone pointed out for me to have a dollar it needed to come from someone else.
It is a no win situation there is no way to level the playing field and there never was.
Complain about the banks but BIGOV can and will freeze your assets.
Of? Fishy stench and lots of glowy stuff under a blue light?
Ever take a blue flashlight to any open house?
I gather some places the realtor doesn’t have to state if someone was killed or died in the home.
I read a couple of horror stories about new owners pulling up the rugs to find massive blood stains.
A large survey of Gen Z’ers just showed that 85% believe that WW3 is more likely than them buying a home in the next decade.
Maybe after the war, prices will improve?
Surprises me that they drink less… when my peers were expecting WW3 we partied like rock stars for an entire decade, until a bunch of us died off and the rest got bored of it. Armageddon is notoriously late.
The Devil’s Lettuce got a lot better and easier to obtain, so maybe that got swapped in for liquor.
From what I see and smell I don’t think it’s a maybe. As someone said, when folks were boozing on the weekends they still got a lot done during the week. Legalized weed legalizes and promotes a whole lotta idle. I see it in my nephews’ cohort, I think it’s 100% spot on.
There’s a reason they call it dope.
Because it is made from ROPE?
Jamie Brockett’s Ballad of the USS Titanic, listen to the vinyl version before the live.
Just a section of an outrageous song.
“Then there was the first mate. Now I gotta tell ya bout the first mate. Now the first mate, he don’t know nothin’ about Jewish parties. He don’t know nothing about hoistin’ up land lubbers. He don’t know nothin’ about captains. He uh, he wants to go on over to England he wants to play his guitar. He wanna run around n’ chase women n’ have all sorts of good … times
Anyways this fella’, his sideburns they’re just a little too long. He giving away, see. He … he been down in Mexico he been down in Mexico. He been workin’ in this rope factory down in Mexico now. Down in Mexico they make rope outta this funny little hemp plant that grows wild in the ground. Some of you people … grow it in flower pots under your bed … ehh. Anyways, he’s down there and he’s … he’s makin’ rope outta this funny marijuana plant … One day the rope factory she catch fire n’ he runs back on in to save his lunch – he’s got two sardine sandwiches – runnin’ back on in to save his lunch he gets inside n’ there’s all this funny smoke floatin’ around up inside n’ … he gets some of this funny smoke up inside his head n’… he sit down in the middle o’ de’ fire n’ he say, “Shhhhhit baby, I ain’t gonna make rope no more!”
Idle and dumb.
I tried modern pot seeking an alternative to Xanax.
Nothing like 70’s/80’s pot, more like acid.
I can’t imagine a modern day Jack Kerouac writing anything while high today.
Who hates The Beatnicks?
Neal Cassidy was a god for the beats and the Kesey Hippies.
But they do more drugs. Trade off those dabs are expensive.
This is the IDF homopath with the red finger.
You know the old soup joke right?
I bet you were a victim of the keeping it warm part thus the red thumb.
We did all the drugs too… the weed wasn’t as good as it is now though.
Too late but do you recall the Mtv commercial where the kids come running in saying nothing is fun anymore and the father tells them we used up all the fun?
Hahaha. Good news for them, then. Perhaps the time draws near.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/the-moa-week-in-review-ot-2025-185-2.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02e860f16fd9200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02e860f16fd9200b
But how did they feel about the character in Veil guard who cut off her breasts?
Most of the smart boomers I talk to know WW3 and economic collapse leading to reset is planned.
According to Zillow, the only strong housing markets are in the big cities in the north east, parts of the mid west, and along the california coast. Nearly all other markets are weak or very weak.
Work from home is ended so the old fashioned big cities are seeing demand from people who have to return to the office. All of the pandemic locations are in serious trouble.
Employers are telling employees to either get back into the office or quit. They are doing this to cut workers without paying any severance.
The following summarizes the zillow data:
https://ktla.com/news/california/the-countrys-hottest-real-estate-markets-have-changed-in-2025/
Connecticut is one of those places still seeing price increases. Cheapest town in the Hartford metro (Bristol, CT) had a median selling price of $160K in February 2020. Today the median price is $365,000. That’s a 128% increase in just 5 years.
There are signs the peak may be in. ‘Only’ 70% of homes in Bristol are selling over list price versus 81% last month.
An ironman use his Cannondale to ride from Queens to New Haven, back and force, bc 95 is so clogged.
Sounds like a pizza fanatic.
Jevon’s Paradox?
That is NYC and Cali bleed over.
Same crowd seeking the same mentality.
2019 to present –
https://metra.com/ridership-and-on-time-performance
Another report within the link goes back 40 years. There were fewer stations on the lines going back, too.
Definitely OT – but I am following live updates of Zelensky-Trump meeting. Little other than this.
I am pleased to report Ukraine progress.
Trump likes Zelensky’s new black suit.
“You look fabulous in that suit,” observed Glenn, one of Trump’s favorite reporters. “You look good.”
“I said the same thing,” Trump chimed in.
What a bunch of prancing ponces wrapped up in $10000 suits to hide their physical degeneracy.
He got ripped for not wearing a suit last time so I guess he learned something. We’ll see if that helps anything.
More like “Idiocracy” every day!
“President Camacho” no longer seems outlandish.
Camacho would be a massive improvement. He was a moron, but he wanted what was best for his people, and listened to the smartest person he could find to fix things.
We currently have a pedo with sticky, grabby little hands that cares about nothing but self-aggrandizement.
Well, at least nobody is loosing their heads over it, unlike 1789. No matter the generational sniping here, everyone is just waiting for The Ed Sullivan Show to come on Sunday evening.
“You Look Marvelous!” (1985)
“Puttin’ On The Ritz” (1982) – Taco & Putin!!!
Nothing public will come out until it is settled or it is called off. Today was to show solidarity and to show who is boss. They will not be discussing on TV their negotiating points and precious little leaks will occur. Nevertheless things are moving.
But at the same time the Houthi’s dropped a bomb on Tel Aviv airport.
Tie up loose ends and move into the sands again.
Did happen to play the piano for TACO? I heard he was dickidedly good.
Trump likes Zelensky’s new black suit.
“After the meeting, Trump, who often judges people based on how they look, suggested that al-Sharaa has a “real shot at doing a good job” with war-torn Syria. He also called the former terrorist a “young, attractive, tough guy” with a “very strong” past.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, he said al-Sharaa is a “young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter.””
“Jolani proposes Trump Tower in Damascus, peace with Israel for sanctions relief: Report Monday, 12 May 2025 5:04 PM”
When considering the lender is incurring risk lending wealth in the form of dollars, I not too sure that mortgage rates aren’t about right or maybe a little low. Ask yourself what you would rent for 6.5% annually? Personally, I would not rent my virtually indestructible anvil for the current mortgage rate.
Yeah and nobody can afford your rent so the market price is driven down by pressure. IDK where your house is but as of right now there’s nowhere in America I’m willing to shell out half my income to live. Why would I? I can go live better in Vietnam or Indonesia. America used to have all the jobs and opportunities so they could screw people over, now? Others are willing to pay more for tech expertise, and increasingly academia is leaving for Europe.
There’s good spots to rent here, if you take the time to look. I’ve got a lakefront place that costs $1500 a month because it’s so remote. Owners have had it since the 80s, and are happy to have me cover the property tax and a little more.
It’s a good deal for both of us.
I’d be a bit leery of growing old and feeble in some foreign country full of people a lot poorer than me.
Especially if you are FAR from family/friends (ie support).
Even more so when there are language / cultural barriers and rule of law is a lot different.
Rule of law has been and always will be what you can hold on to you own.
I don’t know of a country I’d feel safe in that would let me bring my rifles.
When a gun runs out of ammo it is nothing but a stick.
Ever watch the Dustin Hoffman Straw Dogs?
I’m a fan of using everything as a weapon, striking points are the same no matter if you use a hand or a pencil.
Depending on the state of medicine at the time a sharp stick dipped in turd is really deadly. Then you can make those Native American, similar to the Vietnamese ones but not a pit, hole traps with downward curved sharpened sticks.
Check out the Youtube stuff on using anything for defense like hats. Eye opening.
Seal the breath, seal the vein, break the stance.
I add take the eyes.
Then again I am old and only need ten seconds to inflict pain and be gone.
I’m too old to be brawling. If I can’t neutralize a threat with a 30 round mag, I deserve to die.
That’s fair, and that’s very good of you to be one of the handful of honest renters. Though personally, I would not be wary of growing old far away because I’m a younger man and because I have no problem reaching across cultural lines. I have friends in a lot of countries and don’t doubt my abilities to find community where I move.
Unlike certain other expats here, I’m not an asshole so I have no plan to take advantage of those less fortunate than me. One who travels will often find that people outside the US are much, much more communal and willing to help others as opposed to leaving them dying on the side of the road. I value that a lot, so I’d probably go somewhere where people share those values.
“Unlike certain other expats here, I’m not an asshole”
Most people never get that. Each culture and tribe has their own taboos and rules which need to be respected.
I compliment you on your respect and lack of denigration.
I always get deals because the people I rent from absolutely love me. All I do is respect their property, pay on time, and tell them when something’s broken. You wouldn’t think that would be all that rare, but it is. These folks all have horror stories that sound almost like fiction.
I think people are finally discovering the rent vs. buy calculators (this one is the best IMO https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html).
There are very few areas where it makes sense to buy.
Thanks for that link.
I may use it.
Is there a way to bypass logging in or giving out some info (ie anyone got a free account they can share with us).
I absolutely despise sites like this that just want to spam me.
Use someone else’s Apple pay phone to setup your account.
Maybe an inlaw you don’t like.
This seems to work, if you do the captcha: http://archive.today/oWPCy
If you have an iPhone, use Hide My Email, then block the fake email it gives you.
Thanks.
But that archive seems to just be a page scrape so it doesn’t contain the javascript behind that does the updates. For example when I type in the boxes nothing updates on the graphs on the right and I never see a final answer on rent vs buy since nothing updated.
Too bad it wasn’t on an independent website instead of the NY Times.
Bummer. If you really want it you can make a free gmail for that kind of thing. I haven’t found another one with the level of detail the NYT one has.
Yeah it’s got a ton of useful things on it for doing comparisons.