Existing home sales fell 4.1 percent in October on top of negative revisions in September.
The National Association of Realtors® NAR® reports Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.1% in October.
Key Details
- Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 4.1% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million in October.
- Year-over-year, sales tumbled 14.6% (down from 4.44 million in October 2022).
- The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $391,800, an increase of 3.4% from October 2022 ($378,800). All four U.S. regions registered price increases.
- All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions in October, unchanged from September but up from 26% in October 2022.
- Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in October, down from 18% in September and 16% one year ago.
- Properties typically remained on the market for 23 days in October, up from 21 days in September 2023 and October 2022. Sixty-six percent of homes sold in October were on the market for less than a month.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change From Month Ago
Existing home sales are down 19 of the last 21 months.
Existing Home Sales Since 1969
Existing home sales have crashed to Great Recession levels. They are now back to sales numbers seen in the late 1970s.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change From Year Ago
I created a new chart this month to show how misleading year-over-year numbers can be.
In January of 2023, year-over-year sales were down 36.91 percent year-over-year. Now they are down “only” 14.64 percent.
It’s the lead chart with actual numbers that shows what’s really going on.
How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures
For discussion of this dual-track housing bubble with rising prices despite a transaction crash, please see How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures
Everyone knows the government is incapable of stopping profligate spending and money printing so price levels will generally continue to rise. Money will continue flowing to real assets, there is massive demand for single family homes because renting apartments is so much worse in terms of QoL. However, for the most part, only existing owners can afford SFHs and housing is moving towards a token based system (trade houses with equity towards a new one).
It’s completely laughable that the economy is not at a recession given housing volume has fallen so much and to levels of the housing bubble bottom 13 year ago. So what will the housing market do once the economy gets so bad a recession is officially called? Volume falls another 50% and prices crash 50%?
Personally, I am thankful for living in America. The best country in the world for people who want to have a better life through their own hard work, saving and investing. A place with more opportunities for more people than any other country, where you can learn any skill you are interested in acquiring, and make a better life for yourself.
Is it perfect? Heck no. There will never be a perfect place to live. But compared to everywhere else, I will take it.
Where else have you lived?
You can learn all this on the internet and from books. It’s easier to make money via saving and investing from other countries where tax rates are generally much lower. You’re just content because you’re a Bay Area boomer sitting on millions in real estate gains.
KTLA mentioned the other day, that home prices were starting to decline in Los Angeles. A story on ZH mentioned that some of the L.A. rich were renting out their home, rather than sell it, because of a millionaire’s tax on properties valued over $5 million.
The FED’s Ph.Ds. have learned their catechisms. And they have achieved their objective, that there is no difference between money and liquid assets.
New residential construction needs to be subsidized by the U.S. Government. The remuneration of interbank demand deposits (bank reserves) shouldn’t be higher than mortgage rates (i.e., inverted).
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Single-Family Units (HOUST1F) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) requires government intervention, or a command economy, if the shortage is to be sated.
Ready to call it guys. Next year is gonna be ugly if unemployment goes up in any significant way.
Why do some people get edit while other commentators can’t.
Edit button is in bottom right corner of your post. It’s invisible until you mouse over it down there. Then it says ‘manage post’
QQQ and SPX retraced 38% of the move from Oct 2022 low to July 2023 high.
Any wonder Lowes sales dropped 13% y/y?
“Existing home sales have crashed to Great Recession levels.”
And since everyone saw what The Fed did back then, noone will bother to lower asking prices even one cent in order to sell, until The Fed bails the rackets out again.
To get _any_, even the tiniest trace of, price discovery back; The Fed would first have to crank rates to 50%, and keep them there for at least 2 centuries. Until then, buying selling houses will never be about buying and selling shelter according to need. But instead simply about useless clowns sitting on couches waiting for yet another Fed bailout.
Okay, but when will house prices fall?
They won’t bc real estate is tax favored investment. The enhancements to real estate writeoffs were not undone as part of covid laws. This is why the biggest purchasers of RE are boomers.
The modern socialist USA has a third world population and third world public education. US labor an afford mud huts, tar paper shacks, teepees, clapboard shacks, and wikiups. Until the housing codes are reformed people make do with sidewalk tents and campers. Alternatively public schools could be reformed with school choice and vouchers. Third world immigrants could be deported. The free welfare army could be inspired to work for a living. Inexpensive energy could be pulled out of the ground.
I want to thank my local Central Bank for these levels of inflation, inequality and absurd valuations of homes, cars, jewellery, food, energy, etc.
I also want to thank my government for endless and pointless wars, costing taxpayers billions, if not trillions. And by my government, I mean the unelected overlords in Brussels….thank you so much!
I can’t afford a house, a decent car or to heat my house comfortably, but thank God I can leave a comment on the internet. That’ll teach them!
It’s glorious to behold this decline in livingstandards and purchasingpower, it’s a real privilege. I own nothing and I’m so happy!
Send Klaus Schwab a “thank you” note.
Unoccupied houses being held at hyper inflated prices by speculators and banks should have their property taxes quintupled until they are sold.
What do you mean by speculators? I bought a clunker investment house today that will take me 2-3 years to fully restore and when I say me I mean me doing most of the work. So you want to raise property taxes on me while I’m trying to create a nicer home and improve the neighborhood? And so what if I hold on to it for a decade or longer. Totally messed tax me more for not selling it.
I hear what you are saying but the ultimate problem is the monetary policy which investors are reacting to. When you implement such extreme and radical financial repression with negative real interest rates while simultaneously exploding the money supply. it is going to incentivize investors to start bidding up assets which has fundamentally ruined housing affordability. The housing market and financial system would be much sounder if long-term interest rates were set by a free bond market instead of the Fed’s printing press.
Sounds a bit tyrannical