Major Disconnect
A friend of mind writes “I saw a time series that shows that every single week of the year a majority in the UK would REMAIN if there were another referendum. It was a small majority, but a consistent one. It is therefore perplexing how a party that is not going to just deliver Brexit, but a hard Brexit is polling this well. There is a major disconnect.“
Why is Johnson Polling So Well?
Here is my friend’s implied question: Why is Johnson polling so well?
For starters Johnson isn’t going to deliver a hard Brexit. It will be a negotiated Brexit. A withdrawal agreement will be signed. And despite Johnson’s rhetoric, I suspect that the WTO arrangement will be managed, and far better than the Farage clan will have you believe.
I took a close look inside some of the recent polls and there are some interesting trends that explain what’s going on.
Brexit Fading as an Issue
Brexit is fading as an issue, especially among women. Only 25% of women have Brexit as their number one issue.
And I am quite surprised by this: Only 17.1% of 18-24 year-olds have Brexit as their top issue.
Fewer and fewer believe the nonsense about “no deal” primarily because Johnson will deliver a deal.
Gender Gap Part One
40.6% of men will vote Tory but only 26% of women in the latest Survation poll.
Check out the undecideds! Only 10% of men are undecided vs a whopping 23.5% of women.
Female uncertainty is not just in the Survation poll.
Gender Gap Part Two
In the latest YouGov poll 21% of females are undecided but only 13% of men.
Is female voting uncertainty a normal state of affairs? I have not investigated enough to know.
Voting Intention Undecideds Removed
Note once again the male-female divergence.
A whopping 47.7% of men are likely to vote for Boris Johnson vs only 36.1% of women.
Note London and the whopping 58.8% Tory vote in the South. I will come back to London in a moment.
Referendum on Corbyn
My key idea to answer my friend’s question is that the election has morphed into a referendum on Corbyn and away from a referendum on Brexit.
It’s not that Johnson is very popular. Rather, Corbyn is exceptionally unpopular.
Not a Single Age Group Likes Corbyn
Spotlight London
London is the key area in England where Remainers and socialists rate to do well. Liberals abound in London just like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York.
Yet even in London, Labour is struggling.
The current spread of Labour over the Tories is 1 percentage point. Survation has it at 3 percentage points.
In 2017 the spread was a 21.4 percentage points.
Labour is struggling mightily even in London, and even with tactical voting.
What’s happening?
It should be easy to figure out: Business owners are scared to death of Corbyn.
In Touch or Out of Touch?
For those who have Brexit as the key issue, Jeremy Corbyn ranks dead last and Johnson first.
Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister
That’s a pretty amazing poll.
A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!
Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.
Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.
Great Nationalization Backlash
The Telegraph reports Investors vow to fight Corbyn’s plans to seize British businesses
If you were wondering why Labour is losing ground in UK election polls, there it is, in spades.
The article did not even mention Corbyn’s plan to force homeowners to sell homes to renters at a government specified price.
This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it’s primarily about Corbyn and his extreme socialist policies!
Corbyn is rightfully getting clobbered.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“Nothing clears the mind like being shot at and missed.”
Winston Churchill
I think Corbyn has convinced everyone in the UK that he’s a property-taker, shooting at them with socialism…
Things aren’t bad enough (yet) for a Corbyn to come to power. But one day they might be.
Watching the Debate
About half-through
Just finished with Brexit
Hardly anything IMO
Both side will likely claim victory but I see little reason for minds to change
Appearances: Johnson looks happy and smiling.
Corbyn looks miserable
You are kidding right?
I’m very pleased with it. It’s very clear what we’re voting for.
I’m not sure I could have heard this properly, but on the TV debate I thought Mr Corbyn just said he was going to fund his crackpot 4 day week by increased productivity!
I heard that. I would like to see nurses’ faces when they are told to increase productivity.
It would be really surprising if the bad polls of Corbyn were about socialism. He was a socialist all his life and he had much better numbers in the past. No, I think his bad polls are exactly about Brexit, about his endless triangulation and ambiguity. If the Brexit topic is suppressed, that is good for him. Might not be enough though.
“Still, if this kind of trend continues, then the result can be tight in the end.”
If this kind of trend continues it will be the mother of all landslides with Labour at the bottom of the rubble
Obviously, we are not talking about the same thing.
Instant yougov poll on the debate- the liar 51% Corbyn 49%.
In my mind, if the election is about socialism, then the Corbyn campaign works right. It is what he wants, to present the whole thing as a binary choice where his socialism is one of the two choices.
In contrast, Johnson wants it to be a Brexit election. This is why he called it in the first place (as Mish documented in detail). In a Brexit election, the binary choice would be a Johnson Brexit vs something else.
My opinion is somewhere in the middle… The poll numbers seem to show that both squeezes are working. Johnson has a large advantage, of course. Still, if this kind of trend continues, then the result can be tight in the end.
Clearly a case of phobophobia.
Less about one being popular and more about one being unpopular. That sounds so damn familiar…..
The real reason for the onslaught against Corybn is his support for the Palestinians. If it weren’t for that he would be the next Prime Minister.
Boris Johnson’s Brexit tightrope https://theweek.com/articles/873450/boris-johnsons-brexit-tightrope
Exactly! For most non-socialist (and non-avid) remainers, like myself, stopping Corbyn trumps Brexit.
Corbyn did surprisingly well in the last election.
What troubles me about the lack of focus on Brexit is that Brexit is pretty much key to having an independent nation. It wont matter one jot which leader you elect whilst in the EU because the overall set of policies that you will live under will be limited to what the EU allows. Corbyn would at least be only temporary, but EU dominion over the UK would be for much longer and cause far greater damage.
So it troubles me that you put personalities before policy on this one. Even having the right to choose set of policies is far more important to me than which person might be standing. Much of our troubles have been caused because we vote for personalities like Tony Blair and reap the consequences of not having understood their policies.
You’re wrong. I don’t care one bit about the personality of the next PM nor do I care about bureaucrats in Westminster any more than those in Brussels. What I do care about is the economy. I have no interest in turning the country I live in into Venezuela without the oil.
That is the whole point. If Brussels want to impoverish the UK economy, then you cant vote them out.
When Marxists take over you can’t vote them out either, ask the Venezuelans and Cubans. The EU is not a Marxist organisation and the risk of it ruining the UK economy is much more remote. But this discussion is beside the point. The choice is between Corbyn and Brexit not between Corbyn and the EU.
Shame, Brexit is for the next 50 years, Corbyn is 70, he’s not going to last much longer.
His like would, and by the time everyone realises we’d be on our knees.
The EU itself won’t last much longer either. Better outside to help create the replacement than inside to get splattered when the SHTF.
Lifetime Labour voter here, but it will be a cold day in Hell when I vote for this mob.
I remember the 70s and 80s when people like Corbyn, McDonald, et al were responsible for the rise of Thatcher and the eventual destruction of our manufacturing base, civil society and everything worth having . Problem is, Labour is now infested with people who either weren’t born then, or worse, view it as a golden age for the proletariat before the rise of common sense in the party that made it electable again.
So why didn’t Labour dump Corbyn?
I suspect it is like the DNC (Democratic National Committee)
The higher ups and top party leaders loved Hillary
The rank and file could not stand her.
Perhaps someone from the UK has a comment on that.
I think because if Corbyn won he would be ousted by the Trots and Marxists within a few months and McDonnell (or McTerrorist as we like to call him here in Britain) would be installed as PM.
In short, Magic Grandpa is a Useful Idiot. Does what he’s told, says what he’s told.
It is the exact opposite to what you suspect Mish. Imagine Bernie being in charge of the DNC.
Why didn’t Labour dump Corbyn? Momentum.
I don’t know the precise details (not sure anyone does) but there were massive changes to Labour Party around 2015. A big recruitment drive for new party members with negligible joining fees saw the rise of the left wing group known as Momentum. Quickly they managed to change the Party rules to remove power from the MPs and give it to the Party bosses (NEC). This was mainly dominated by members of Momentum. Out of the blue, Corbyn was elected leader. The traditional Labour MPs are powerless to do anything about it – other than resign.
Mish’s age group graphs above show this. Back in 2015 most Momentum members were young activists in their early 20’s. They have now become the 25 – 34 year olds who still worship Corbyn. And they still hold the balance of power in Momentum and thus the Labour Party.
The reason is that Corbyn was chosen not by the higher ups in the party, but by the party members. To oust him therefore takes much more time as you need to set up a costly vote of all of the small members. And what would be the point of a challenge? I think I am right to say that he won by a large margin last time and would do so again. It isnt like a party where you just need to fix a few people at the top to challenge things.
I have to admit I quite like the idea of that system.
also I recall back in 2015 Labour had this ludicrous policy of allowing anyone who paid £3 to vote for leader. Bucket loads of Tories piled in to vote for Corbyn. Looks like it has paid dividends
Labour is socialist. They have always said so. In other countries, socialism is not the taboo word it is (or has been) in the US – which has plenty of socialism but denies it.