Six Point Compelling Picture In Chronological Order
- Theresa May failed to deliver Brexit.
- Support for the Tory Party collapsed.
- Support for the Brexit Party soared.
- Support for the Labour party collapsed as well
- Things reversed for the Tories the moment it became apparent Boris Johnson would be the next Prime Minister.
- Support for Labour, even after a recent surge languishes well below where it was a year ago.
You can like the trends or not, but there is no denying what the chart shows.
Meanwhile, I keep hearing ad nauseum that Labour is ahead of where it was when Theresa May called for elections in 2017.
Let’s investigate that notion.
Polling Trends in 2017
We are Here
Please compare the above chart with the lead chart.
Spot any differences?
For starters, Corbyn is not ahead af 2017. It seems to be a tie with Corbyn fading fast.
This is Not 2017
- This is 2019, not 2017.
- The trends before and since the election was called are not remotely comparable.
- Theresa May was never very popular or likeable.
- Corbyn was in a honeymoon period.
- Today, Corbyn is the most unpopular opposition leader in UK history.
Corbyn is Amazingly Unpopular
Unless there is some sort of debate rally, Corbyn will be behind in 3 days, way behind in a week, and undeniably and impossibly behind in two weeks with the election the following week.
That is what the trends say. There is no point in denying the obvious.
Let’s discuss why this is.
Corbyn’s Message Does Not Resonate
Corbyn’s message “Negotiate a deal then hold a referendum on it” does not resonate.
And why should it?
People, even Remainers are sick of this. Corbyn pledged to honor the referendum and didn’t.
He wants another one. And after a bit he will support a referendum for Scotland too. He refused to rule it out.
And if he needs SNP support to break a deadlock in the case of a hung election, is there any doubt he won’t grant one immediately?
Union Question
A question came up in the debate: Is the union more important than Brexit?
Johnson answered yes. Corbyn didn’t. He couldn’t because he supports a Scotland referendum, not now, but later.
Of course, later means now if there is a hung election. For all this talk of Johnson busting up the union, please take a look at Corbyn.
I saw no media commentary on this at all. I wonder what the fence sitters think.
UK Election Debate: Johnson Wins by Not Losing
Yesterday, I commented UK Election Debate: Johnson Wins by Not Losing
A YouGov poll gave Johnson a small win. Look, a 51-49 “victory” is a tie in this kind of thing.
The media commentary on the outcome was quite amazing.
The Guardian and others proclaimed Corbyn the winner, despite the immediate polls, because Corbyn did better than expected and allegedly landed more blows.
Say what?
Boring Debate
I watched the entire debate. For the most part it was boring. And boring is precisely what Johnson wanted.
If anything, Johnson went well out of his way to be purposely boring!
Let that sink in.
Corbyn did not need boring, he needed a blowout and failed to deliver. If you score the debate by what was needed, Corbyn lost badly.
Nonetheless, straight up, I stick with my assessment: It was a tie. Spin that however you want because I just did.
Referendum on Corbyn
Despite Johnson’s insistence on making this a referendum on Brexit, what’s really happening is the campaign has morphed into a referendum on Corbyn himself.
That’s a pretty amazing poll.
A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!
Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.
Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.
For further discussion of the above chart, please see Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.
Expect More Boringness
At this juncture, Johnson simply wants to avoid any major gaffes.
Expect more “Let’s get Brexit Done” boringness.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If Corbyn is so unpopular how did he get elected as the leader of Labour party? is he unpopular with the people but popular with the MPs?
Mish commented in the other thread:
“There is only 15% of the Lib Dems left for Labour to target. Corbyn has already picked off all but the hard core. They can’t stand him and thus no more gains coming”
If you want to see the Lib Dem hard core, that is on the left of your diagram. Below 10%. The extra 5% supports them mainly because of Brexit and probably goes back and forth relatively easily. This 5% has a potential to vote for Labour.
There is another group of targeted voters who support Greens at the moment. maybe 2-3%. There are lots of green points in the Labour manifesto exactly to get them on board. Besides the Brexit referendum, of course.
I am just speculating but Labour at 40% again seems unlikely. Lib Dems were at 7.4% when this happened in 2017. But ~37% can be achievable.
Any doubt that Labour will take assets directly or indirectly is confirmed.
Massive spending & give always because interest rates are low. Inflationary!
Corporation tax raised to 26% from the current 19%
Capital Gains on assets to be taxed as income. So any assets that rise with inflation will be taxed, thereby stealing part of them.
We could be doomed!
“…I keep hearing ad nauseum that Labour is ahead of where it was when Theresa May called for elections in 2017.”
I haven’t heard this myself but have no doubt that it is true. I also have no doubt that the Tories will win with Johnson.
And, I have no doubt that many Johnson supporters, including Brexiteers and true free-market advocates, will despise him after a few months of his being PM.
It has come up many times on social media and the Guardian. Possibly FT but I do not recall for sure.
BoJo cant be trusted. I regret to say that Avidremainer (crosses himself, says the Lord’s Prayer and grabs a bunch of garlic in one hand and a wooden stake in the other) is right about this. I am a Tory sympathiser. I am a Brexiteer – a very keen one at that. I am certainly a free-market advocate. And already I despise BoJo. I wont be voting for him. He could have delivered Brexit if he had tried but didn’t do so. He could have challenged the surrender act at the third reading, but didn’t do so. Judge people by their actions and not their words.
If you don’t vote for him we might not have Brexit. 😀
Politely – Don’t kid yourself Scoot. BoJo’s deal COULD be Brexit. But reading between the lines what we’re slated for is a BRINO, TINA and a WOAW!!! Brexit in name only, there is no alternative, and worst of all worlds.
OT of course but:
Mish, back in the olden days I recall you taking a position in metals miners.
Where are you now, and why?
The cruelty, callousness, and malevolence of this government has driven my anarchist father to register to vote for the first time in 40 years.
The Tories are destroying our country, our culture, our infrastructure, our safety net, and our future. https://twitter.com/Amber_moore/status/1197222203152052230
So much nonsense and hyperbole in one tweet. Makes you wonder on what planet these people live.
Vote labour, Vote SNP is a good slogan. Clearly Nicola Sturgeons comments of yesterday provide a strong indication of what would happen in a hung parliament. Another Scottish Refererundum in the near future would clearly be on the cards.
Avidremainer is going to cry …. very soon. When he/she realises his/her/its dream of a remain solution is dashed to hell. The remainers are a bunch of worthless ideologues who care nothing for democracy (apart from when it works in their favour). Oh well, hopefully most of these peanuts will leave or jump. And good riddance.
The last time I cried was when we had to put down our Staffordshire Bull Terrier who was suffering from cancer. Hubris is a problem if you are a pea-brained fool.
The media, and particularly the BBC seem biased against the conservatives.
As a recent example, on Radio 4 yesterday morning, Mr Johnson was castigated for his response about the Royal Family in the debate. They quoted him as saying The Royal Family are beyond reproach. What he actually said was “The institution of The Royal Family are beyond reproach”. Leaving out the word “Institution” changed the emphasis completely in the wake of the furore surrounding Prince Andrew.
Royal family was a silly question. It will sway about 0% so his answer do not matter, but I do think it was silly.
Yes I tend to agree but it is part of the process of identifying him as part of the privelaged elite and not in touch with “the people”.
It shouldn’t matter of course, either he can run the country or not regardless of his background. His record in the limited time he’s been PM clearly shows he’s determined to get things done.
Johnson is wrong about the Union being more important that Brexit. Without Brexit the Union is irrelevant as we are just a vassal state. What he thinks of when he means the Union isnt possible when subjugated under the EU yoke.
I was initially surprised by his comment. But I do not believe he even means it.
I think it was a lie, but politically speaking it was perfect. Corbyn was trapped and it will play well politically.
Very true, Corbyn is utterly trapped by Johnson’s remark. If he had been pro-Brexit he could have savaged the remark, but he isnt and nor is any of Johnson’s other opponents.
Did you know that the full name of the Conservative party is the Conservative and Unionist party? This is why I am concerned about their Brexit stance given that the unionist parties of NI dont seem too happy with the deal that Johnson has agreed. Johnson wont care of course because there isnt really anyone more Brexit than him standing for election on this side of the Irish sea. If there was his position would be assailable, but his Brexit flank is empty of serious dissent.
I think the Union is a great thing, but once Eire became an independent republic (well, sort of given they are now in the EU), the writing is on the wall for the Irish part of the UK. Time to say a fond farewell.
But the more I look at it, the more it seems to me like Corbyn is playing very old-fashioned neomarxist-style class warfare. I get the feeling he really doesn’t care all that much about Brexit because he views everything through his class warfare lens.
Marxist types worship at the shrine of Concept, of Big Ideas, and regard people and nations as irrelevancies, quaint vehicles of nostalgia which need to swept away by the modernist broom of egalitarian utopianism.
That what results is always some form of Socialist Drab reminiscent of shiny but unwashed walls on the Underground walls, well, he just can’t see it through his standard-issue NHS specs, perched askew ‘neath his concept-furrowed brow.
He probably thinks he despises the Royals but in fact he has no understanding of them at all, for Royalty exists on the Heart level, not in the Head. Far from perfect, of course, but it’s a different type of Ideal, one that is lived and manifested, not endlessly fantasized and preached.
Anyway. Keep up the good work Mish. Excellent coverage.
You can read the phrase various ways, i.e. unionist demands beat a soft brexit and mean no deal, or that scottish referendum demands are denied to maintain the union and so achieve brexit which is posing, or otherwise poses, a threat to the union. Maybe though he said that in a way that clearly implied that if it came down to union and remain vs brexit and no union, he would choose remain? Either way, technically brexit and union are not synonymous nor does one automatically imply a certain result for the other, so it can only really be a point of discussion to revolve around hypothetically, not something etched in stone. That is politics for you.