Please consider February 1, FOMC Statement.
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Key Point Synopsis
- More rate hikes sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.
- The committee will take into account lags.
- Quantitative Tightening (QT) a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet of Treasury and agency debt (mortgage-backed securities) will continue on schedule.
- The committee will monitor risks.
There was nothing in the statement that was the least bit unexpected.
One point to emphasize is the fed expects multiple hikes.
“The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time”
A Word About Lags
I discussed lags on January 30, in How Long is the Lag Between Fed Rate Hikes and Real World Activity?
It’s not really a matter of how quickly rate increases will slow the economy, but rather how quickly rate increases will slow inflation.
I don’t know the answer, nor does anyone else.
But the higher rate hikes go and the longer they stay there, the worse the prospects are for the stock market.
How the Fed can untangle this inflationary mess is a mystery. The negative impacts of QE cannot be easily undone.
Press Conference
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
This post originated on MishTalk.Com.
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