“And no one else does either,” said Powell. Ponder what that implies.
The Fed does not know how tariffs will play out, how oil shocks will play out, or how AI will play out.
Powell On the Summary of Economic Expectations (SEP)
“We just don’t know. If ever there was a good time to not do SEPs this would be the one.”
“We don’t know what the effects of this will be, and no one does.”
“Take the forecast with a grain of salt due to high levels of uncertainty.”
Net of oil imapct is some downward pressure on spending.
Powell did blame tariffs for inflation, stating “consumers pay tariffs.”
AI Uncertainty
On AI, Powell stated the long term benefit rates to be increased productivity, but the timing is uncertain.
He added AI puts short-term inflation pressures on data centers and components.
“We just don’t know.”
Diesel and Gasoline Price Uncertainty
Powell punted two questions on diesel and gasoline prices. “We don’t know how big this will be or how long it will last,” Powell responded to the one question.
To a second reporter, Powell responded that he would not comment because “That might sound like I have some idea what will happen.”
On Jobs
Powell noted the downside risks but brushed off stagflation, a term he said applies to the 70s and 80s, not now.
He noted “zero net job creation” but stated “that’s what the economy may need.”
Powell added the job setup is a “consequence of deliberate immigration policy,” while having some concerns over the no job growth setup.
Press Conference Video
Powell Makes the Case
Q: What case is that?
A: There should not be a Fed.
The Fed doesn’t know where rates should be, and nobody else does either.
Only the free market can respond accurately to the incoming data.
But the one thing worse than an “independent” Fed is a Fed beholden to nothing but the demands of politicians. And that is what Trump wants.
I will comment on the SEP shortly.
Powell “No Intention of Leaving the Fed”
Powell issue a statement “I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.”
The case will be closed in Powell’s favor.
Powell would not respond to questions about what he does once the investigation is closed.
He is confirmed to a separate term as a Fed governor until 2028. “I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” said Powell.
“Frivolous” Subpoenas of the Fed Chair
Please note Judge Chastises Trump’s DOJ Over “Frivolous” Subpoenas of the Fed Chair
Republican Senator Thom Tillis praises the ruling.
Tillis has stated he will hold all Trump appointments until Trump drops the case against Powell.
That includes Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.
It would be idiotic for many reasons to appeal the ruling but guess what.
U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro Will Appeal.
We All Know How This Will End
“We all know how this is going to end and the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office should save itself further embarrassment and move on,” said Tillis.
Tillis forgot to add, “except the legal morons at the DOJ who were stupid to file these frivolous subpoenas in the first case.”
Considering the incoming Trump appointee, whomever it may be, I will probably miss Chairman Powell’s candor.
Why are the present DOJ and the Republicans in congress acting as accomplices and colluding to protect the orange freak?
How many more will die and how much economic damage must be done?
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00622303.pdf
Fox News was all over a consensual blowjob given by an adult intern on Clinton. This is public information and Fox promotes credibly accused child rapist Trump as president?
34x Convicted Felon!
The free market can set a price for interest on a hard currency, such as species for gold or silver pre-FDR. It is incapable of doing so for a fiat currency such as we have now, unless there is a mechanism for controlling the quantity of such money. And who would control that quantity other than a central bank or some other legal authority?
Oil has hit $114, world wide recession guaranteed ?
Not yet. Today I heard that line is closer to 134.
Tomorrow could be different
Have you guys seen Trump freaking out of social media just now? He is completely losing control of the war he started and he knows it.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116253388303392718
Israel played Trump like a fiddle.
This is why we shouldn’t elect morons. But the problem is, we give morons the right to vote.
We cannot get Voter ID done. That says it all.
Perhaps if the GOP tried it without taking the right to vote away from women who changed their name for marriage, it wouldn’t be so obviously a failed effort.
Qatar shares the South Pars gas field with Iran. It is the largest gas field in the word. That field provides the gas for the Ras Laffans LNG facilities (the largest LNG facility in the world) that Trump wants to protect. If Trump destroys South Pars, then Ras Laffans has no gas left to liquify.
It’s the classic “we had to destroy the village to protect the village”.
So stupid.
Why doesn’t it shock me that we’re fighting a war in Iran so Jared Kushner, a member of Trump’s family, can take “investments” from Middle Eastern countries who need our weapons, military assets and intelligence to defended themselves.I’ve read he’s looking to collect $5 or $6 billion dollars. Of course, the Military-Industrial Complex will need to replace all the hardware that’s been expended in the Iran war along with the planes that went down. I’m not OK with a President that makes payoffs and takes payoffs…and he does it with consequences. Can America handle another 3 years of this nonsense?
I say that to everyone I know: “War is ABOUT MONEY, not “Saving People.”
After Iran’s successful strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City today, what are the chances all the idiots stop telling us that Iran has been defeated or defanged somehow?
If Iran can hit sites in another country, they can certainly strike US ships that approach land.
What a disaster this is. And it’s so terrible that none of it had to happen if the US electorate had been even the slightest bit wiser.
Statements like “We just don’t know” and “No one else does either” are reflections of frustration the markets are not behaving as the Fed wants them to, and an attempt to hide those frustrations.
Oil at $111. Do you guys want to hear about my profitgasms tomorrow?
Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what will blow up next.
I traded Oil Futures for a living. You better wise up to a “Frozen Moment” where suddenly your trailing stops do not fill. You can lose $100K in a minute trading 50 contracts or more. Don’t ask me how I know this.
I’m not trading oil futures. I am trading options on oil stocks and rest assured my trades rarely lose money so don’t you worry your pretty little head.
In addition to most nations ignoring Trumps request for help in Hormuz, Trump has managed to have his Rare Earths summit go unattended by any of the officials that were invited from Brazil. He even held it there!
Trump is trying to get around Chinas sanctions that prevent the export of strategic or rare earths to any US military manufacturers or anyone that does business with US military or weapons manufacturers.
Only Trump should destroy so many economically beneficial relationships so quickly!
Now the oil fields of our allies are being bombed and he is failing to protect them!
Thank you for the economic chaos Donald! There is no way anyone can predict what Trump will screw up next!
Barack and Joe set it up and it looks like this guy could be the proverbial log that breaks the camels back – time will tell
And nations are tearing up and shredding all those amazing trade “deals” Trump wasted a whole year trying to get done. It starts with a trickle then a flood. Lol.
https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/malaysia-says-us-trade-pact-void-in-wake-of-court-tariff-ruling
His whole administration and agenda is unraveling right before our eyes…
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Frosty,
Are you ready for planting season? Diesel is pushing $5, other gas is soaring, fertilizer cost is soaring, electricity rates are soaring, labor is soaring (deportations), etc.
Don’t sugar coat it, tell us how it is, I’ve been warning about soaring food prices for a while and we’re about to get a huge bump in about 60 days.
I am ready, and the only significant cost increase is fuel for transporting products to market. My present diesel delivery contract pre-buy price expires in October. (Diesel is now $1.57 above my delivery contract for x gallons by October 30th). I have large inventory buffers of fertilizers and massive inventories of composted organics as the result of years of accumulation and turning.
That said, I can not predict what cost pressure will come for wage increases for my workers if their personal expenses rise precipitously, nor can I predict what irrigation will be needed or hoe much packaging and miscellaneous materials will rise.
I do know that my products are in high demand and that my margins will be increasing along with increasing production due to the maturity cycles of some perennial crops like blueberries, asparagus and rhubarb.
Another aspect of the farms increasing efficiency is a new addition to my main office, sorting, cleaning and packaging building. I expect a 20% overall time reduction in cleaning, processing, handling and packaging.
My neighbors are in significantly disadvantaged positions as they have massive cost increases coming their way for fertilizers, labor and fuel. Growing corn and soy is their choice and they pay the consequences for their lack of product diversity.
It should be noted that corn and soy products have gone up in price so some mitigation of increased costs will happen for my neighbors if conventional crop yields are good.
“whatever he touches” is my guess
$200bil supplemental request from Pentagon for war
Entire foreign aid budget in 2024 was $62bil
Too expensive, cut by DOGE
$200 billion for a war Trump declared won on the first day, (and every day for the next ten daze). Why?
And return $130+ billion in illegally collected tariffs!
Moar US debt?
Just add it to the BBB mess, take two aspirins, downgrade the US’s credit rating and call me in the morning…
<<<~>>>
BREAKING – (Kahn? News, Israeli outfit?) Reporting US is preparing for 2 week operation to take Strait or Hormuz. USS Tripoli to be involved…no Israeli boots on the ground, they will be providing intelligence from the safety of their bunkers.
————-
Translation: Oil going a lot higher, Dow going a lot lower
China ignores Trump’s Hormuz request as the Iran war deepens and his Beijing trip slips
China is in the driver’s seat here. They are still getting 1-2 mbpd of Iranian oil. They have built up their SPR to 1500 mb over the last few years at very low prices. They are rapidly turning themselves into an electro-state, that relies more on electricity than other countries, who rely too much on fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, Trump went into this war without adding any oil to the US SPR. What an idiot.
He also did this without input from his allies, saying he didn’t need their help. Now he is angry that they won’t help him.
The strait will remain closed. Oil will keep going higher.
Why Iran’s Most Dangerous Weapon in This War Isn’t a Missile. It’s the Yuan
https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/iran-has-just-fired-the-most-dangerous-shot-of-this-war-and-it-wasnt-a-missile/
And China will continue to suck up all the physical silver produced globally to build solar panels by the tens of millions. China is building the power grid that we could have had if we had allowed Israel to fight its own wars for the last 100 years.
again quoted: The US is wasting time and resources in overseas conflicts, National security should be built on domestic strength, specifically by securing our power grid and reducing global oil dependence. We have the technology, tools, solar, wind, advanced battery storage, nuclear power to make this happen.
We have the wrong people in place to make this happen.
Bingo! We have a winner!
And PapaDave,
You were correct in your assessment of my post that I was being too optimistic that the US had stabilized the strait of Hormuz…
Like many, I bought into Trump’s confidence in our military. I was wrong! Our Saudi, Qatari, UAE and other oil producing allies are being bombed. They are being crippled economically. They are losing confidence in us thanks to Trumps support of one theocracy against another theocracy.
Clearly Trump does not care about the First Amendment to the US Constitution.
The Israeli strategy is to force Iran to destroy gulfie oil assets, thus taking away Iran’s leverage.
Basically a “kill the hostages” strategy, which is something Israel knows well.
How much “clear and hold” can a couple thousand Marines do?
1500km of Gulf coastline in Iran
167km of coastline in Hormuz
34,000 troops required on the Omaha beachhead
I’m not a fan of the war, but apples and oranges a bit on that last one
I suggest they enlist ICE and send them out there.
Trump said that Israel decided to strike Iran and Qatar’s South Pars gas field, the largest gas field in the world, without his knowledge. And they shouldn’t have done it.
In retaliation, Iran struck at Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial complex, home to the largest LNG facility in the world.
In response, Trump threatened to blow up South Pars himself. Since that field is shared with Qatar, Trump will destroy Qatar’s gas field to protect it’s LNG facility that will no longer be able to get gas from the field. Makes perfect sense.
You forgot the least important to this administration, “Marines are going to die”
Some more classic Trump waffling:
Trump wants no more strikes on Iranian energy sites after Israel struck facilities linked to the South Pars natural gas field today, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing unnamed US officials.
The newspaper reports that Trump supported the strike with the intent to send a message to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, but is now against further such attacks.
But Trump could be open to more strikes on Iranian energy targets if Iran threatens or impedes the vital oil and trade route, the officials told the WSJ.
Iran blew up Qatar’s largest LNG and its going to take a LONG time to fix it.
https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492
But the profits will be amazing.
USA Is self-sufficient in oil. We should just say Eff you all. Let Iran keep the Straight closed. Get your ships out there and escort your tankers through yourselves if you want oil.
We are not self-sufficient in oil. We import 6-7 million barrels of oil per day. Most of it from Canada.
well canada ain’t gonna cut us off and you know that…still, you made your point.
Canada, “hold my beer…”
I would not be too sure about that. Trump has threatened Canada as well with a military takeover and they are building pipelines to the west coast to export their oil to China as fast as they can.
I think that Israel is the only country that Trump has not shat on.
Canada is currently exporting around 900k bpd from their west coast. Roughly 700k of that goes to Asia, and the rest to California. TMX will expand their pipeline capacity by another 70K bpd by 2027.
Yes, Canada needs to build more pipelines to be able to export more oil, but there are no others planned as yet. So most of their oil will continue to flow to the US.
Guess I should have checked with the AI first:
After the USA initiated the conflict.Moron !!!!!
It is becoming clear the interest rates will be going up, and significantly. US creditworthiness is falling fast. China is having to fight the appreciation of its currency.
Nothing Trump says can be relied on as being remotely factual, or even credible. Trump is compromised and a rambling narcissistic fool.
At this rate Trump will have to release the Epstein files to distract people from his war!
The yield on the 2yr US Treasury is showing the strongest indicator the 2.5 year interest rate consolidation is over. It blasted above its downtrending 200 day moving average AND the upper consolidation envelop.Yields on the 10 and 30 year US bonds recently popped above their 200 day moving averages as well. The yield on the 30 year US bond should scare global finance markets. It’s 200 day moving average kept drifting higher throughout the 2.5 year consolidation.
Im a simpleton could someone explain the reply to Frosty? The yield on the 2yr US Treasury is showing the strongest indicator……..Thank You
Apparently, Mish chose not to read the chatGPT critique of this similar statement to the one he made in one of yesterday’s posts. See:
https://chatgpt.com/s/t_69ba033ace788191b81a00093e9523dc
Is this a case of ignoring the critique or not being able to teach an old dog new tricks?
AI lies… especially to people that use it in a masturbatory fashion.
Here’s an excerpt from your link:
The post claims the Fed ignores housing, taxes, and real-world costs. That’s not quite accurate.
But there’s a reason:
A more nuanced critique would be:
That’s very different from saying their measures are “asinine.”
ChatGPT isn’t really contradicting anything Mish said, it is simply parroting something the Fed would say about it’s policies or programs. I think Mish’s take is more accurate than ChatGPT but people will believe whatever they want.
Jojo is so stupid he can’t even read the AI slop regurgitation. You expect him to be able to read long form content?
Powell Said “We Just Don’t Know”
Everything is in a state of flux capacitor.
Speaking of which, the Puente Hills Mall, featured in Back to the Future, fell into decline and has been sold for redevelopment. “The mall may soon become home to battery energy storage facilities and data centers, sparking environmental and economic concerns from nearby communities.” Monterey Park residents are also fighting construction of a medium size data center.
It’s clown world. Nobody knows anything.
Note Powell said, “..and for the people we serve.” He didn’t say the American people. Would love for him to elaborate on who those people are!
Big banks are the FED’s shareholders.They make good profits (offiially).
Called it! They flipped a coin!
Here is a link to a Reddit post with links to really horrific pdfs on the DOJ website for the Epstien case. Names are named… heck the pdfs are even sorted by main character.
“Jeffrey Epstien would bring the children, and Trump would auction them off.. he measured the children’s vulva and vaginas by entering a finger”
Truly horrible stuff.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Epstien/comments/r54j0d/comment/o2t4z4a/
But there’s a war on now, and the media can’t make it’s nut with Epstien Epstien Epstien all the time, so nobody will read them.
[ROTFLOL] 🤣🤣🤣
Put it back in your pants, chuckles.
Wake me up when it hits a quadrillion.
So on Judge Nap show today one of the guests said some of the troops are derisively saluting each other Heil Epstein!
That’s some grim humor.
Powell talks about AI bubble binging the same way one might a roulette bet, “I just don’t know what the outcome of the investment will be!” That means it’s a bet, Mr. Powell.
Cannot cut rates inflation picking up steam.
Rates should be increased by 2 points.
Yes but another 2% interest on $36 Trillion debt almost unmanageable..
That was when Trumps second term started. Now it is closer to $39 trillion (after only 1.4 years.
To control Trumps War created inflation? We need a massive increase in rates. The Fed does not have the stomach for that, so inflation is about to rage again. Real interest rates will be negative for the foreseeable future.
Debt doesn’t matter any longer.
Iran is showing it does.
The truth be told.