In the past week, Trump called Powell a moron and asked if he should appoint himself.
Ahead of the Fed’s rate cut decision on Wednesday, Trump Mused About Appointing Himself to Head the Central Bank.
“Maybe I should go to the Fed,” Trump said. “Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I’d do a much better job than these people.”
Massive Hissy Fit
When the Fed did not cut rates, Trump threw the expected hissy fit in a series of posts on Truth Social, upping the rhetoric to moron.
“Too Late” Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars. He is truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government, and the Fed Board is complicit. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had none. We should be 2.5 Points lower, and save $BILLIONS on all of Biden’s Short Term Debt. We have LOW inflation! TOO LATE’s an American Disgrace!
Total and Complete Moron
“Too Late” Powell complains about costs, much of which were produced by the Biden Fake “Government,” but he could do the biggest and best job for our Country by helping to lower Interest Rates and, if he reduced them to the number they should be, 1% to 2%, that “numbskull” would be saving the United States of America up to $1 Trillion Dollars per year. I fully understand that my strong criticism of him makes it more difficult for him to do what he should be doing, lowering Rates, but I’ve tried it all different ways. I’ve been nice, I’ve been neutral, and I’ve been nasty, and nice and neutral didn’t work! He’s a dumb guy, and an obvious Trump Hater, who should have never been there, I listened to someone that I shouldn’t have listened to, and Biden shouldn’t have reappointed him. We have virtually No Inflation, our Economy is doing really well, and will soon be doing, with the tremendous Tariff Income coming in, and Factories being built all over the Country, better than it has ever done before. If he was concerned about Inflation or anything else, then all he has to do is bring the Rate down, so we can benefit on Interest Costs, and raise it in the future when and if these “other elements” happen (which I doubt they will!). Don’t say that you think there will be Inflation sometime in the future, because there isn’t now but, if there is, raise the Rates! We should be at the TOP of the attached List, not the bottom. I don’t know why the Board doesn’t override this Total and Complete Moron! Maybe, just maybe, I’ll have to change my mind about firing him? But regardless, his Term ends shortly!
Musical Tribute
Will I see you in September, see you when the summer’s through?
The market says yes to a September rate cut and no to July.
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With Trump Completing Multiple Strikes on Iran, the oil markets may be interesting on Monday.
Too bad Trump’s oil and gas donors made Trump reverse Biden’s investment in and incentives for, renewable energy. We immediately lost leverage over countries like Iran and homeowners / businesses are now disincentivized to become more energy independent. So here we are, and Trump thinks that false interest rates will spur the economy. You know what would spur the economy? Increasing income taxes on billionaires.
Disincentivized? If the only reason to do it is Free Public Money it wasn’t a good idea in the first place.
If Iran closes the strait oil prices will go up and the incentive will return.
J Pow better be ready for a Trumpertantrum.
Atlanta GDPnow’s latest estimate: 3.4 percent — June 18, 2025
As I said:
re: “Should the Fed cut? I have no idea. Nor does anyone else.”
You ease when money flows peak in Sept. It’s called N-gDp level targeting.
The rate-of-change in R-gDp doesn’t drop until Sept. Then inflation flows peak as well.
The longer the FED waits, the lower rates will go.
3.4% is quite good. 5 of the 7 subcomponents are positive. Net exports were negative all through Q1 of this year and then turned positive on May 30th, increasing from 1.45% to 2.07%. Granted, we’re still in this dislocation interval, but obviously the longer net exports remain positive is a good sign for importing less from China. Less imports from China means their economy is going to struggle more & more. Certainly, the effects will slowly appear here in the US as well. But we’re in late June and the economy is still chugging along. Big changes always seem to happen in September, and this year certainly looks to be no different. Still too hard to say if we’re in for an inflection up or down, IMHO.
The 3rd qtr. looks weaker, probably falling enough to lower the 2-year roc in N-gDp levels’ targeting to a point where the FED finally needs to react.
We’ve just completed wave 5. Could be the peak in stocks.
China cut their share of exports going to the USA from above 19% 2017 to below 13% today. They already made the adjustment that you are saying will hurt them so badly, because they know how stupid US policy is.
Like all issues, the calculus on this one is simple.
? Do you hate Donald Trump or not ?
Jerome Fed has been move to the liability column of this balance sheet.
Life can be so simple…
The ruling class gave us a choice between profoundly evil Democrats and this braggart…on purpose. DeSantis was even in the polls until the lawfare was unleashed. A pro-individual-liberty candidate is not allowed in the US oligarchy.
I agree with the market. Pass on July, no meeting in August with a cut likely in September even if there’s a mild uptick in CPI of not more than 2.6% from the 2.4% May figure.
I think the Fed can tolerate a small increase in CPI, especially if it correlates to a continued pullback in consumer spending.
The pullback in consumer spending is because of the inflation that higher rates are supposed to address. I don’t give a hill o beans if the Fed can tolerate a small increase in CPI. When do consumers and non-asset-holders get to have a Fed that wants prices to NOT go up, at all, not even a little, not after the 10-15 years of inflation period from 2021-2024?
If we don’t stomach a downturn without rates being reduced the only thing we do is lock in the massive inflation in everything, including and most importantly housing.
Inflation is down from 9.1% to 2.5%. The Fed has lowered interest rates by 100 BP. For prices to not go up, means deflation. Disinflation simply means prices are going up less & less which is what has happened over the last 2+ years.
I agree. I’m not against a recession, but my position is that $2T in deficit spending & the way the Fed is managing the economy will make getting to a recession quite painful all by itself.
The only solution for high home prices & insurance is a meaningful recession. I don’t think it’s going to take a GR 2.0, but it’s going to take more than the Dotcom & 1991 recessions.
Just the threat of closing Hormuz is enough to affect the ability of ships to get the insurance necessary for sailing. If they get insurance, what do you think the premium is to sail a flammable vessel through a war zone?
Shipping by Yemen is still down by 2/3 because of the Houthi threats
By the way, GPS navigation through the strait is already jammed/spoofed
Oil prices going up without a mine being laid or a shot being fired
Inflation is not contained in this situation so no cuts
By the way, there is a good chance that Trump will use this as an opportunity to drop Russian sanctions “to get Russian oil and gas onto the market”
A crew for such a floating bomb probably doesn’t come cheap either.
If you can find one
91 year old Chuck Grassley is 3rd in line. If you think that’s something, just check the rest of the batting order, sickening.
The US economy is certainly on the turn.
https://demeadville.com/economic-barometer/
but I suspect oil supplies will be under pressure for a while as I can’t see Iran surrendering easily.
The easiest thing for The aged to do is carry on with their wait and see approach. .
The easiest thing for The Fed to do is carry on with their wait and see approach.
What impact will the Iran bombing (and its aftermath) have on passing Trump’s Big Boondoggle? That seems more consequential than a rate cut.
Well not that Trump is a war-monger that makes him a RINO doesn’t it? It’s all one big evil family now.
Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz. Oil will rocket. Russia says plenty of nations willing to sell nukes to Iran. Yeah, it’ll be $3 to $5 trillion for wars now.
I really hate all of this is happening, all I can really do is position for profits and work on my exit strategy.
Got oil stocks?
Got SPY puts?
Got exit strategy?
https://nypost.com/2025/06/22/world-news/iran-orders-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-putting-one-fifth-of-worlds-oil-supply-at-risk/
Don’t see how the Fed can cut rates in this environment.
What are they going to use to close the waterway? Sticks and stones. Talk of a bully.
We’ll find out at some point. Blocking the port should be the least of worries now, it’s another 9/11 that will crash the market
I’m hoping they take out Langley. Float it right up the Potomac.
I hear they have these flying bomb thingies that can go long distance to a target.…
Missiles? Given they have repeatedly hit targets in Israel which is much further, hitting a huge, slow moving object a few miles out should not be difficult?
If Russia sells nukes to Iran we can sell them to places like Ukraine, Taiwan ect. Since Russia is impotent in this they can only talk.
Trading this is going to be difficult but if Iran tries to close the Strait they will have problems. The last time they tried the US sank half their fleet in half a day. Prices would zip up and then zip down.
Was Powell in the loop or not? I doubt it but I certainly hope he has gamed it already.
“If Russia sells nukes to Iran we can sell them to places like Ukraine, Taiwan ect.”
That works for me. Let it happen. Every nation should have nukes to preserve the peace. For all we know, Trump may decide Taiwan belongs to the U.S. next week along with Canada and Greenland.
Russia won’t do it because if everyone has nukes then they have no advantage anymore. Few countries want nukes. They are very expensive to make and a bitch to maintain. Biological warfare is much cheaper and now days you can engineer them to attack populations with specific genetic markers. Much cleaner and the infrastructure remains intact.
Iran’s naval forces appear to not have been targeted thus far by Israel or the US. So, their capability shouldn’t be discounted. While Iran may try to shut down the SoH, but doing so will cause a swift & massive reaction by the US, Israel, & Saudi Arabia. I think the UK & Germany have started to shift resources probably for this possibility. Moreover, it would give the coalition cover to take out the Ayatollah.
You said $1-2 T. I said 10x that. I might have been too optimistic.
Trump’s bombing of Iran increases China’s cost of oil for manufacturing. China won’t retaliate against Trump with force, but will be less inclined to negotiate tariffs. The US government will increase military spending to replenish missiles and procure more equipment in anticipation of a global conflict. These issues will drive inflation higher.
Why a top market strategist says his base case is still a 25% stock drop and a recession in 2025
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-top-market-strategist-says-173001744.html
Labor and housing markets have topped out with more large layoffs announced this past week. Credit defaults (home, car, consumer) are on the rise. It’s not “if” but “it should have already happened by now”.
oil to the moon. rate hikes might be in order