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Food Prices Rise Again, a Bit Slower, What’s in Your Basket?

January 13, 2023

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12:30 am

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32 comments

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Economics

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Almost all of the decline is due to a 9.5 percent decline in the price of gasoline. This post puts a spotlight on food.

Month-Over-Month Food Details

The food index increased 0.3 percent in December following a 0.5-percent increase in November.
The food at home index rose 0.2 percent in December. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.0 percent.
The index for eggs rose 11.1 percent.
The index for other food at home rose 0.4 percent over the month
The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.1 percent in December.
The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent in December, after increasing 0.5 percent in November.
The index for limited service meals increased 0.5 percent over the month and the index for full service meals increased 0.1 percent.

Year-Over-Year Food

Year-Over-Year Six Food Categories

Year-Over-Year Food Details

The food at home index rose 11.8 percent over the last 12 months.
The index for cereals and bakery products rose 16.1 percent over the year.
The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 7.7 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 15.3 percent (dairy and related products).
The index for food away from home rose 8.3 percent over the last year.

Gasoline, Shelter, and Energy

For discussion of other CPI details, please see CPI Declines Due to Gasoline But Food and Shelter Costs Jump Again

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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32 Comments

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Counter

3 years ago

The $DBA is looking attractive

Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

I need to have the butler speak with the cook about these food prices.

El_Tedo

3 years ago

Mish, you used to argue with us for years about the food inflation we all saw at the grocery store, but no one can deny it now.

worleyeoe

3 years ago

We should all get used to food price inflation as well as quantity inflation. That stuff is here to stay.

Jojo

3 years ago

Reply to worleyeoe

More lower paid people got a pay increase towards a “livable wage” over the past two years but today, they STILL can’t afford to buy enough food! Increased costs sop up all the additional cash these people are bringing in, leaving them in the same relative economic position as they were previously.

KidHorn

3 years ago

I’m a single father with 4 mouths to feed, so I see food prices first hand. They’ve clearly gone up a lot over the past year or so. The only thing that hasn’t is chicken. Odd that eggs have gone up 200% or so while chicken has remained relatively flat. Maybe different chicken types are more susceptible to flu than others. Nuts and dried fruit have also seen little price movement. Fast food has gone up a lot. A single meal at McDonalds can cost $13. Maybe I’m old, but doesn’t seem that long ago you could get a lot for $5 from burger joints.

But over the previous 20 years or so, food prices have been really cheap historically. I never noticed much change in prices.

randocalrissian

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

Why would anyone put McDonald’s poison in their system, unless they hate themselves? I’d rather live off rice and beans cooked at home.

Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to randocalrissian

There are many people that know that not everything that McDonald’s sells is “poison.”

Lots of people have learned how to read labels and nutritional information.

I know that life must be difficult for you as an illiterate adult, but it’s never too late to learn.

worleyeoe

3 years ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

McRib sandwich anyone?

KidHorn

3 years ago

Reply to randocalrissian

Tastes good and is convenient. And I’m not sure rice and beans are that much better for you. Mexicans don’t live longer than average.

Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to KidHorn

And no one forces you to purchase any poisonous stuff, it’s your choice.

El_Tedo

3 years ago

Reply to randocalrissian

relax

billybobjr

3 years ago

Got 4/ 6 pack 16 oz cokes 4 for $11 .18 Eggs $4 . Around Christmas puplix had their Prime rib for $5.50 lb we get 2 and cut into

Rib eye steaks enough for 3 months . Have a group of friends and family who keep each other informed of specials at different

places . Wife and I split up and go different directions sometimes to save money on specials . Mish mentioned Whole Chicken Costco

for dinner make rest into chicken salad or chicken soup . You can save plenty of money by spending a little time and energy if you

want . We could afford to just go get what we want but if I can spend a little time and save $ 50 it is worth it to me . Americans are spoiled

and the waste is extreme across the board but I think the people who want to live efficiently their reward will be increased as time

goes by and they will accrue wealth and be rewarded with even more so in the future. .

KidHorn

3 years ago

Reply to billybobjr

Not to mention how to be frugal is good thing to pass on to your kids. You don’t get rich spending a lot.

rktbrkr

3 years ago

A couple years ago BOTH political parties were falling all over each other to send out money for nothing to avoid an overdue recession fueled by covid disruptions and our current inflation is the result. Inflation is a talking point for GOP now, they don’t have any plan for anything and were silent when trump proclaimed “deficits don’ matter”. We are now reminded that they do matter.

It will be interesting to see what economic impact we face here from the Covid die-off in China, they have implemented the Kushner “lit it rip” approach to covid after 3 years of various stages of lockdowns. Lots of empty Walmart shelves again in a couple months as a result of closed Chinese factories. New, possibly more virulent, Covid flavors arising from a billion cases of Covid in a couple months in China is the real wild card that could take our minds off egg and gaso prices.

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to rktbrkr

They have too many old people, and they’re solving it with Covid.

8dots

3 years ago

Next year y/y negative CPI.

Sunriver

3 years ago

Gas will average back above $4 a gallon by summer, I fully expect this, CPI will be between 6-8% increase yoy this summer as a result.

Siliconguy

3 years ago

Be grateful it’s no worse than it is. Bird seed has doubled since ’21. It was $14 for 40#, now $28 for the same bag.

Membership dues at the shooting range is up 25% since last year.

The good news is that the water bill is only up 2%.

Zardoz

3 years ago

Just shopped today. A bottle of Redneck Rivieara found its way into my basket for 20 bucks, as well as numerous packages of bacon for 5. Everything else was about the same.

PapaDave

3 years ago

The necessities of life (food, shelter, energy) are going to continue to fuel inflation of 3-5%/a for the next few years. I expect the majority (of Americans) to focus their spending on needs vs wants. So I focus my investments in those areas as well. The top 20-30% of Americans will have enough income to spend on wants, and I expect them to emphasize travel.Energy prices will continue to face upward pressure in the long run (though there will always be volatility in the short run).Energy companies remain good investments for the rest of this decade. One of my favorites, TOU, declared another quarterly special dividend today. It has paid 12% in dividends (regular + special) in the last 12 months. My thanks to those commenters who were recommending this company on this blog 2 years ago. Since the stock has quadrupled since I started buying it, that dividend is close to 50% of some of my earliest purchases. Thanks Mish.

MPO45

3 years ago

I went to the grocery store yesterday. An 18 pack of egglands best set me back $7.69. I was a bit shocked but another shock was avocados selling for $2 each where they used to be sold by the pound. I did see higher prices for cereal as well. A few days worth of food set me back $117 and it was all basic food items: chicken, eggs, oat milk, tomatoes, onions, avocados, cereal, watermelon and a 12 pack of coke zero was $7.

Jojo

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

In the local Safeway yesterday here in the SF Bay Area, CA, a dozen large eggs was $8.79.

Eggs are high all over because so many hens had to be killed due to the avian flu. It takes about 5 months for a chick to reach egg laying maturity, so hopefully things will begin to return to normal in the next few months.

BWise

3 years ago

What happens if prices stay exactly the same a year from now? Would inflation then be zero?

MPO45

3 years ago

Reply to BWise

CPI would be zero but the newly adjusted prices would like be permanent or very sticky. It would take deflation to bring the cost of items back down, something the Fed never wants to let happen. Wage slaves now have to work extra hard to maintain a lower standard of living.

I am on record that inflation will only get worse over the next decade even though it may stall or slow periodically. Too many people are leaving the labor force for a variety of reasons (aging/retiring, illness/disability, social programs, and wealth effect) but still demanding goods and services from everyone else. Add to it the insatiable appetite from government for more taxes and social programs it will be a harsh new reality for most people. The young and the old will suffer the most.

Smart people and smart money is moving on to greener pastures in lower cost countries with young populations.

Jojo

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

And I will go on record predicting declining inflation transitioning to accelerating deflation over the next 20 years or so.

This will all be due to the exponential acceleration of automation/robots replacing increasingly more expensive human workers. As adoption of automation/robots becomes more prevalent, the cost of products & services produced by expanding automation should decline significantly as the cost of machines over time will be much lower than human workers.

Forget about “livable wages”. Many are going to find that they will get no wages at all, unless the governments start printing money for a UBI plan. But then again, why do we need money if robots will be able to produce anything that is needed/wanted at near zero cost, allowing everything to be given away for free?

Permanently declining prices is something that rarely happens in the modern world and will strike hard at governments everywhere who depend on constant economic and price growth. I could spend pages pondering the implications of this.

Wouldn’t it be great to see ice cream “pints” return to 16oz and a loaf of bread will return to the 1935 price of 10 cents or even be free?

Lisa_Hooker

3 years ago

Reply to Jojo

“…at near zero cost, allowing everything to be given away for free”

Yup, we lose a little on each but we make it all up on volume.

You are naively expecting capitalists to become socialists.

Won’t happen, they will demand a return on capital expended for automation.

You need to spend a lot more pages pondering.

By any chance are you Jojo Pangloss?

Jojo

3 years ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

Let’s check back in 20 years.

RonJ

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

“Smart people and smart money is moving on to greener pastures in lower cost countries with young populations.”

I hear Fauci’s pension is $414,000 a year. Inflation shouldn’t be a problem for him.

hmk

3 years ago

Reply to BWise

Even if its zero, the purchasing power lost through inflation is never regained.

BWise

3 years ago

Reply to hmk

I understand. But if every month CPI stays the same, eventually the fed could meet their target by doing nothing, correct? And if that happens, the stock market will continue to go up and really rocket if the fed ever cuts rates. That is how I see it but am wondering what I am missing?

rktbrkr

3 years ago

Reply to BWise

Eggs have become a luxury item for me, fortunately I don’t like them! I have notices price cuts on more items in Aldis and Costco, mfgrs don’t want to reduce sticker prices but retailers to price sensitive customers are offering cuts on the shelves.

For a shock to the system stroll thru the aisles at Whole Foods…

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

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Food Prices Rise Again, a Bit Slower, What’s in Your Basket?

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