Export prices fell 0.7 percent in September following a 0.9 percent decline in August.
Please consider the Import and Export Price Report for September.
Imports
- The price index for U.S. imports decreased 0.4 percent in September, the largest 1-month drop since a 0.7- percent decline in December 2023. The September decrease followed a 0.2-percent decline in August and 0.1-percent advances in July and June. U.S. import prices edged down 0.1 percent over the past year, the first 12-month drop since February 2024.
- Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel fell 7.0 percent in September, after declining 2.9 percent in August. The September decline was the largest monthly decrease since an 8.0-percent drop in December 2023. Lower prices in September for petroleum and natural gas contributed to the overall decrease. Import fuel prices declined 17.3 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month drop since August 2023. Import petroleum prices decreased 7.1 percent in September, the largest 1-month decline since December 2023. The price index for import petroleum fell 16.7 percent for the year ended in September, the largest 12- month drop since July 2023. Prices for import natural gas decreased 14.5 percent in September, the largest monthly decline since a 29.7-percent drop in March 2024. Import natural gas prices fell 57.4 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year drop since January 2024.
- All Imports Excluding Fuel: Nonfuel import prices ticked up 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month in September. Higher prices in September for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles more than offset lower foods, feeds, and beverages prices. Prices for nonfuel imports have not recorded a monthly decline since May 2024. The price index for nonfuel imports rose 1.8 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year advance since December 2022.
- Foods, Feeds, and Beverages: Prices for import foods, feeds, and beverages decreased 1.5 percent in September, the first 1-month decline since May 2024. In September, a 12.2-percent drop in vegetables prices drove the decrease in foods, feeds, and beverages prices.
- Nonfuel Industrial Supplies and Materials: The price index for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials rose 1.1 percent in September, the largest monthly advance since a 2.8-percent increase in April 2024. The September rise was led by higher prices for metals and chemicals.
- Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods import categories were mostly up in September. Consumer goods prices rose 0.2 percent, after edging down 0.1 percent in August and July. Higher prices for coins, gems, jewelry, and collectibles led the September advance. Prices for automotive vehicles increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month in September. Higher prices for non-engine parts and accessories in September drove the advance. The price index for capital goods was unchanged in September following a 0.2-percent increase in August.
Exports
- Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in September following a decline of 0.9 percent the previous month. U.S. export prices decreased 1.1 percent for the third quarter of 2024, the largest 3-month drop since December 2023. Lower prices for nonagricultural exports in September more than offset higher agricultural export prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined 2.1 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since January 2024.
- Agricultural Exports: Agricultural export prices advanced 0.6 percent in September, after declining 2.1 percent in August. Higher prices for nuts, other food preparations, meat, wheat, and corn in September more than offset lower soybeans prices. In spite of the September rise, prices for agricultural exports declined 5.3 percent from September 2023 to September 2024.
- All Exports Excluding Agriculture: The price index for nonagricultural exports decreased 0.9 percent in September, the largest monthly drop since the index fell 0.9 percent in October 2023. Lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and automotive vehicles in September more than offset higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods, and nonagricultural foods. Prices for nonagricultural exports declined 1.8 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since December 2023.
- Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials fell 2.4 percent in September, the largest 1-month decline since the index decreased 5.0 percent in May 2023. A 6.7-percent drop in export fuel prices in September led the overall decline in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices.
- Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods export categories were mixed in September. Capital goods prices rose 0.2 percent following a 0.2-percent decline in August. Higher prices for telecommunications equipment led the increase in September. Consumer goods prices advanced 0.3 percent in September, the largest 1-month increase since March 2024. Higher jewelry prices drove the September rise in consumer goods prices. In contrast, prices for automotive vehicles edged down 0.1 percent, the first 1-month decline since April 2023.
Import and Export Prices Year-Over-Year
Import and Export Price Indexes
The above chart shows Covid had a positive impact on import and export prices but much more on exports.
The indexes peaked in June of 2022. Since then the export price index is down 11.9 percent and the import price index is down 5.2 percent.
In isolation, I believe this will be net negative to GDPNow but this depends more on what the model expects rather than the data itself. This makes it much more of a guess than might seem obvious by looking at the data.
not to worry – we have 10-15% annual 2025 inflation baked in
corporates already planning price increases – along with 12% profit of course
see:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDI03USA156NWDB
Contrary to what some pundits claim, this activation of savings is a good thing, a noninflationary thing. I.e., in the circular flow of income, unless savings are expeditiously activated, put back to work, a dampening economic impact is generated.
Off topic. It’s the 16th of October or less than 3 weeks until the election. For some unknown reason, the Treasury is slow rolling the final month of FY ’24 revenue, expenses & deficit. I wonder why? Will it make Comrade Harris look bad? FYI – Through Aug, the annual budget deficit was $1.897T.
Government Revenue | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
I recently ran across the Fiscel Year totals for the Public dept and the Intragovernmental Debt. The year end amounts were scary enough. But then I happened to see those total numbers for the next day. Wow! The Intragovernmental total had gone up $200 Billion in one day. Santa Harris and Biden’s Treasury are rigging the elections again. Isn’t that Treason?
The Year End total is $35.464 Trillion. Less last year it was $33,167T,
Equals a Deficit of $2.297 Trillion for 2024.
Put new batteries in your calculator.
Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
10/1/2024
$28,312,629,054,720
$7,356,318,312,461
$35,668,947,367,182
9/30/2024
$28,307,312,290,783
$7,157,361,638,388
$35,464,673,929,171
DX is down after retracing 88% of the move from 2001 high @121 to Apr 2008 low @71. TNX and CL are down in Aug/Sep. China deflated. That’s good for bank’s stocks.
Overseas consumer demand remains weak.
ECB expected to cut 25 basis tomorrow.
Japan industrial output continues to weaken
CNY New Loan growth recently reported at 8.1% compared with growth rates in 12% to 13% range back in 2020 Loan growth rates as high as 15% back in 2015.
That translates to a nearly 40% drop in debt assumption since China hay days.
China consumers are hurting and will not be backstopping global GDP any time soon.
These factors are certainly impacting US Exports. Which in turn squeezes US producers Labor demand
The big news was health of consumer over at Bank of America.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-q3-earnings-profit-123126722.html
No wonder Warren Buffet dumped his shares.
Could easily be the canary in the coal mine report based on Mish’s feeling that the economy is likely already in a recession and has been for a few months.
It’s not just bank of america….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yh4bjhmTpLg
Glad you’re back, hope you didn’t suffer too much damage.
All good here in southeastern Florida as we got no damage from the Hurricane.
I was actually away in Canada visiting family for Canadian Thanksgiving. Haven’t been to Canada much lately (only my 2nd visit since 2020 due to Covid lockdowns) but a lot has changed there in the last few years (10ish) especially on the immigration front. Even in the small town my family is from it seems like every young worker or small business owner is Indian/Pakistani/Asian. It was shocking to see.
Shouldn’t be shocking at all if you’ve been paying attention to demographics. Heck 45 CEOs of US companies including NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google and IBM are Indian/Asian ancestry.
https://marketrealist.com/p/indian-ceos-in-the-us/
It won’t go back to the way it was because those people don’t exist anymore. They were never created in the first place so it’s not really “replacements” more than filling the void.
Canada wants immigrants. They bring in 500,000 per year to boost their skilled workforce and their economy. The downside seems to be not enough housing for them all at the moment.
As of 2023 there were 8 million immigrants with permanent residence status. And apparently around 0.5 million undocumented immigrants. In a country of 40 million.
They brought in a lot more than 500K last year. It was over a million. Canada’s population grew by something like 4.5% which is unheard of. That’s what’s caused the huge housing shortage and really upset everyone because it’s caused prices to skyrocket.
Here’s how Donald Trump would lower grocery prices
In his own words.Here’s how Donald Trump would lower grocery prices – The Washington Post (archive.ph)
ROFLMAO!
So the value of US labor is declining relative to non US labor. US labor became over priced after WWII and the adjustment to world standards is underway.