In the German state of Saxony, no coalition is possible under stated CDU stated exclusions. 
In Saxony as in the rest of Germany, the threshold for representation for parliament is 5.0 percent.
But some seats are proportioned individually so those winners are elected even if the party itself fails on threshold needs.
FDP failed on both counts and is out. AfD won 28 seats outright and nearly pulled out a victory.
Minority Government?
That’s what I expected but Eurointelligence has this election wrinkle.
Something we didn’t know until yesterday is that the German state of Saxony has a constitutional rule according to which new elections would automatically be triggered if no government is formed after six months. That rule has never been triggered, but it might be now. Sahra Wagenknecht [BSW] is running down the clock. The only way for CDU’s state premier Michael Kretschmer to form a government would be in a coalition with the SPD and Wagenknecht. The CDU has a political firewall against the Left Party. Without that firewall, he could in theory have formed a coalition with the Left Party, the SPD and the Greens. For the CDU that is not a political option, so all they are left with is Wagenknecht. The irony is that her positions are far more extreme than those of the old Left Party.
Bild writes that if there is no deal by February, many recently elected MPs will want to avoid new elections at all costs – so there might be some multi-partisan agreement on a new premier. In Germany, the votes for chancellors and premiers are always secret. That could bring the AfD closer to power. The Saxony wing of the CDU is more open towards a deal with the AfD than the nationwide CDU and Friedrich Merz.
If the final decision was left to parliamentarians, we would not be surprised if members of the state assembly would agree to vote for a candidate who might be open to a confidence and supply agreement with the AfD. That would be a massive problem for Merz.
We keep saying that we should not extrapolate the current polls. A lot can still go wrong in a year. The politics of Saxony is one of the more foreseeable accidents.
AfD Boycott
The Washington Post reports German Leader Urges Parties to Boycott Far Right After its Election Wins.
Victories for Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany in two eastern states prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday to urge mainstream parties to forge coalitions without the anti-migrant party.
“All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists,” Scholz told Reuters, describing the outcome as “bitter.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the leader of SPD. National support for SPD is down to a mere 16 percent. Scholz will be booted as chancellor in the 2025 national election.
Friedrich Merz is the national CDU leader.
Neither Scholz nor Merz is willing to enter a coalition with AfD or BSW because both are anti-immigration. Merz is against any coalition with the Left but SPD and the Greens aren’t.
No alignment makes any sense except CDU and AfD which see eye-to-eye on many things. But the major parties accuse AfD of Nazism and refuse to work with it.
In Saxony, who wants new elections? AfD and BSW are willing to roll the dice. But what about CDU, SPD, and the Greens?
A new election would give AfD a second chance at an outright victory. The Greens barely made the 5 percent threshold and could easily lose representation totally.
So, dear Saxony CDU, who are you going to cut a deal with? Or will it be new election?
Meanwhile, Back in the States
Harris lead on the Silver Bulletin is down to almost nothing and betting odds have surged for Trump (but it’s still close to a tossup).
I discussed this yesterday in Is the Harris Media Blitz Backfiring or Is Her Slippage Due to the Something Else?
I suspect two things, the first is a negative reaction to the media blitz and second and likely more important, the economy.
Click on the above link for details.
German establishment in Saxony is mess exactly because of big coalition. How was Merkel governing for entire 16 years? Together with SPD. That’s how the mess was created. Left and right in one bed. Is new big coalition a solution. of course not.
Kamala had nice word salads yesterday
never answer a question
CDU should heed the electorate and form a coalition with the AfD with a softened stand on immigration. CDU leads the coalition and has that leverage. An election could lead to more CDU supporters switching to the AfD and the AfD could end up driving policy in a new coalition. The blanket boycott is a bit ridiculous to me, if you are afraid that they are going to be the new Nazi’s then don’t isolate them, bring them out in the open so their positions are exposed or tried and sometimes fail, they will adjust. Putting them in a corner will just radicalize them even more.
What, no mention of Thuringa? Germany is reverting to its darkest days.
Macron even conspired to reduce FN candidates in the last general election with the left and yet decided to cut some sort of deal with to keep governing. I don’t think the “cordon sanitaire” will hold much longer.
Sinwar killed yesterday ???
Iran will expel two millions Afghan until Mar. Iranian border guards killed 300 Afghans trying to escape the Talibans. Iran is building a wall. There are 5 millions Afghan refugees in Iran. They can’t rent an apt, buy stuff and move to certain areas.
the EU and the UN have been a wild success. it’s been the longest stretch of peace in europe in thousands of years. the so called midieval ages was much more peaceful than when the roman empire ruled with and iron fist. i vote in italia and learn by studying ancient history and modern parallels……….the amerikan empire is crumbling perfectly textbook. the future will be bright without our world wide military assault and control. israel better figure out how to get along or they won’t last a minute when we abandon them. because we will. as we go bankrupt………
Despite Kellogg/Briand, Paris 2021 and the UN Europe is rising from its ashes. Israel escaping a genocide dismantle the Iranian cauldron. Biden/Bibi are pacifying and stabilizing the ME. Lebanon will rise from the ashes. The Iranian Stasi might join the party. The US is not a crumbling empire. It’s at peak power, without sacrificing our own soldiers. We will build more in the US, just in time. Demand for highly skilled and semi skilled workers will rise. Unions will thrives. The regional banks will lend to their REGIONAL INDUSTRIES, instead of RE. The gov will collect from taxes and tariffs. It will fill its coffer….cutting debt.
LMAO. Mercedes factories are still at 50% of capacity, with no recovery in sight. Germany is paying the price for incompetent leadership and endless brainwashing.
The US is technically bankrupt with no way of paying its current bills, let alone what it needs for a serious recession, or a major war–which is closing in rapidly. There is talk at some US air bases that a major air strike involving the US is being prepared in the ME.
Meanwhile, Powell is borrowing Biden’s Depends and doesn’t know which way to turn, while Wall Street believes that risk no longer exists.
That’s fungie. The facts are different. Europe is languishing. The US is more powerful than ever. The Biden/Bibi sow the ME for better days. Lebanon might rise from the ashes. If the next gov will be fully committed to cutting debt (libertarian) they will chop it in real and nominal terms. No bk. The experts always look backwards and extrapolate : from $10T in Q2 2008 to $35T gov debt.
“…If the next gov will be fully committed to cutting debt…”
The ‘if’ probability is zero without a revolution in Federal Government, replacing ineffective legislature, agencies, and employees. This requires a massive crash, violence, and bloodshed.
A few B-2 carrying Boeing GBU-57 A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetration) flew from Missouri sent a massage to the Ayatollah. Iran isn’t N. Korea. In the last 2Y they expanded their oil assets. In 2025 Iran might export more than $50B oil. 50% of the population aren’t Shia. Bibi is more popular in Iran than in Tel Aviv. Blowing the mighty Quds brigade and the feared religious police will weaken the regime too much, risking a revolution.
Berberine is good for Biden’s brain and gut. Israel has a base in Berbera, Somaliland,
near Bab Al mandab straights. Until Jan 20, Biden/Bibi are shaping the future of the ME.
Kamala Harris already blames Bibi for losing the election. Biden ordered Bibi to stop the invasion to Lebanon, but after two weeks he changed his mind, confusing the European leaders anti Israel chorus who want to muzzle Israel.
Considering 100% of the MSM is dead against you, the Afd result is impressive.
Kind of creepy that there is a political party named after its candidate. What happens when she dies, loses or gets caught up in a scandal?
– The Washington Post reports German Leader Urges Parties to Boycott Far Right After its Election Wins.
> Sounds something like you may hear at Home, like: WaPo Urges Democrats to Boycott Republicans, and if Necessary, the “SJC” after the Election!
– Victories for Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany in two eastern states prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday to urge mainstream parties to forge coalitions without the anti-migrant party.
> Sounds something like you may hear at Home, like: Momentum for “The MAGA Movement” prompted Schumer to Urge Democrats to forge Coalitions with the “Open Border Policy” Crowd!
– “All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists,” Scholz told Reuters, describing the outcome as “bitter.”
> Sounds something like you may hear at Home, like: All Democrat Parties are now called upon to no longer form alliances with The Republican Party.
– Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the leader of SPD. National support for SPD is down to a mere 16, But the major parties accuse AfD of Nazism and refuse to work with it. A new election would give AfD a second chance at an outright victory. The Greens barely made the 5 percent threshold and could easily lose representation totally.
> So, dear Saxony CDU, who are you going to cut a deal with? AfD or will it be a new election? In which AfD likely Wins Outright.
>> Germany is like the U.S. in many ways at the moment. They both need more Nuclear Energy, Less Government Spending, A much tighter immigration policy, get back to 2 parties, and rid yourselves of the SPD/RINO’s and Leftist Lunatics/Greens. Place an emphasis on Country First, No Public Unions, etc…
Aaron Burr shoots Alexander Hamilton …
The radical left changed Olaf Scholz decision to send weapons to Israel. Germany is
#2 supplier after the US. The IDF decimated Hezbollah. Bibi prepared a background for Macron to negotiate a peace treaty between Israel and Lebanon and raise Lebanon from the ashes, but he is fighting with Bibi, under pressure from the left. UNRA & UNIFIL protected Hamas and Hezbollah for decades. In 1948 the UN didn’t create the Jewish state. Legally they can’t. Holocaust survivors fought 5 Arab nations and survived. Bibi might delay shipments of Arrow 3 and David Sling to Germany and use them to protect Israel from Hezbollah and Iran. Iranian officers flew to Lebanon to fill the vacuum that was created after Nasrallah and his top officers were killed.
Israel protects Assad from Hezbollah and Iran. Italy and the Netherland
want to deport Muslims immigrants to Syria. Giorgia Meloni has bigger balls than Macron.
Iran and Hezbollah saved Assad during the civil war, but Iran colonized Syria, expanding their mini empire from Tehran to the Mediterranean, surrounding Israel north/south. Assad might be using the Israeli air force to target Iranian generals and logistic in Syria, Assad forbade Hezbollah from attacking the Golan heights. He cleansed pro Iranian Syrians officials and officers, ex Maher Assad, his own bros. Bibi and Assad have a mutual enemy.
Your lack of knowledge of Middle East, Palestinian and Israel histories and current events is astonishing. Please expand your choices of reading, listening and watching to garner information.
That’s true.
B-2 blasted Yemen, sending a warning to Iran.
Were these the first ‘shots’ of WW3, or a thinly veiled attempt to get Kamala elected?
The problem with ill-conceived ‘show of force’ strategies is having a soft underbelly when it comes to retaliation.
Saying AfD is “far right” is like in 1989 when Jethro Tull beat out AC/DC and Metallica for a Grammy for Best Heavy Metal band performance.
Losing battle for the current powers as German economy remains weakening.
Weaker it gets the better for AFD.
Germans love stability and that is not what they are getting at this time.
Brussels and ECB are unable to provide growth in Europe.
All they offer up is continued flooding of Europe with people who have no cultural similarities to Europe’s core values.
Backlash will only grow louder fueled by economic pain.
If the Brits & French hadn’t carved up the Middle East, had the US implemented an even handed approach to its ME policy, had Germany’s fecundity rate rate remained at approximately birth and death replacement ratios, had Germany decided to not rely as much as it has on foreign energy supplies that harmed its economy, the anti- immigration proffered by the far right would have fallen on deaf years.
This is almost entirely on the West for its bad policies. Successful or relatively stable countries’s citizens do not flee their country in droves.
Gegenheit zur Afd ist bald vorbei.
I have maintained for a while that at some point, AfD is going to win a majority and simply rule as the people will not stand for the politics. the recent trend is for anti-immigration parties to gain support. of course, it will be quite interesting to see how the federal government there responds. I believe it will make the hysteria over Trump’s victory in 16 seem like a mild disagreement