For those counting, that would be a pickup of five seats. Iowa on deck for six.
Note the 59 percent Kalshi Senate Odds at 59 percent for Democrats, a new high.
Polymarket Balance of Power
The Polymarket Balance of Power odds are at a record high 60 percent for Democrats as well.
Texas Senate
The Polymarket Texas Senate odds are also a record high 57 percent for Talarico.
Iowa Senate
The weirdest poll is the traditionally overweight-for-republicans Rasmussen has the Iowa Senate: Democrat Turek Leads by 5 Points
The betting markets don’t seem to believe it with Kalshi at 60 percent Republican and Polymarket at 61 percent republican.
In contrast, Nate Silver Classic has it 55 percent for Democrats but Deluxe at 46.7 percent.
Let’s call this one a tossup until we get more polls.
Dumbest Political Blunder in History
Approval Rating
Backlash
Texas Polls
Looking Ahead
- There is no reason to believe Trump will do anything to fix anything.
- There is every indication he will continue to say stupid things that will cost him votes.
For example …
Trump Says He Could Ban Fishing
Trump “Quite Impressed” With His Own Intelligence
I look Forward to This
Ted’s Warning
Trump Explains Trade Deficits
Note: That is not a direct quote on bananas but it accurately represents what Trump said.
More on Trade Deficits
That was an accurate quote.
Even Fox News Sees It
And Finally
Trump would prefer to be electrocuted than face sharks.
Hmm. Why doesn’t he just ban sharks?
What to Expect
Expect more asinine comments by Trump on his IQ, fishing, sharks, Iran, the ballroom, whatever.
Then in 46 days expect a well-deserved Republican bloodbath.
I’m not voting for Democrats though. I will vote Libertarian. I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils.
Related Posts
September 15, 2026: Nate Silver Senate Odds Jumped to 60 Percent Range for Democrats
Let’s discuss Silver’s three models plus the betting markets.
September 16, 2026: The House Adjourns Early to Stop a Hegseth Impeachment Vote
Rep Massie is having fun. Hegseth would have been impeached.
September 17, 2026: Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote
Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans.
In the early 2000’s the organization “Get Out Of Our House” tried to start a grass roots campaign to reform the federal government. Although they fielded candidates in 2008 and 2010 the voters did not support the organization. The voters missed their chance! What I liked is the candidates had to sign a legal contract with GOOOH that stated that they would vote / perform according their stated beliefs as expressed to GOOOH. If they didn’t they had to resign their seat.
Now I have that Banana Boat song stuck in my head. Thanks a lot.
“I’m not voting for Democrats though. I will vote Libertarian. I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils.”
Good man.
Get real. I have been voting for “the lesseer of two evils” for more than 50 years.
To do anything else is a wasted vote.
No vote is wasted. But I wasnt aware the uniparty republicans and democrats actually tries to block third party candidates. Even more reason they are losers.
And how has that worked out for you?
I’m voting all D. I’ve never understood the protest vote. I’ll take the lesser of two evils for $1000 Alex.
I am mostly a Libertarian at heart but until Libertarians can actually make a difference and win a vote, ANY vote, I have no interest in voting for them. I’d rather not vote and waste my time (which I’ve done in the past).
The tyranny of ballot access laws will never allow me to vote d or r again.
fair enough. if that is where I was, then I wouldn’t bother to vote at all. I’m actually considering that this time around.
I am independent and a veteran of the army and I am proudly going to vote for Angie Nixon for senator. I live in a socalled red area and me and my neighbors are white and they are fed up with both desantis and trump and guess what they are going to vote for Angie Nixon also! Note Nixon will oppose wars and support minimum wage increases and socialized medicine. To be honest she will win in a landslide here. The republicans are so weak and despised here that Maduro would probably get a lot of votes if he ran in Florida
Note I live in Steinhatchee Florida and there are Nixon signs everywhere even near the bars and fishing docks for tourists.
Prediction US 58 democrat senators including independents that caucus with democrats plus Murkowski leaving the republicans so 59 vs 41 even Texas will put in a democratic senator as paxton is a despicable crook
Iowa also getting a democrat senator and we Americans are just fed up with wars high price for necessities and all thee other nonsense
Possible
Iowa Democrat Gov Likely
Attention to Mike Shedlock I agree Mish but I also think the senate seat also going democrat polls show Turek five points behind in senate race. Note you know that this is not an election where voters love democrats. Voters are angry at wars high prices corruption and ai etcetera. This might make you laugh but if Kamala ran for US Senator in Idaho or Wyoming she would get a lot of votes. That said keep watching Florida as the unelected republican US Senatorial candidate is about to get laid off in MNovember
I wasnt aware the uniparty republicans and democrats actually tries to block third party candidates. Even more reason they are POS losers.
Especially seeing how protest votes are what landed us $6+ diesel to begin with. Kamala deserved to lose, but it should be no surprise to anyone Trump is still as retarded as ever and was the worse call unless you wanted to see America plummet from grace. Hope everyone’s happy with that, because we’re never going back to the image we used to have short of electing Jesus Christ himself to office.
What do Kalshi and Nate Silver say about this Enbridge Line 5 thing in Wisconsin?
Don’t discount what taco and his proud boys will do.
“I’m not voting for Democrats though. I will vote Libertarian. I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils.”
I already voted with the only real vote that matters and true to heart libertarians, the feet vote. All other votes are irrelevant and wont bother, have any votes over the last 30 years mattered? Yeah Trump is a disaster but we will never know how bad the other candidate could have made things. It was going to be war mongering no matter who won.
I have a dream…free at last, free at last, free at last. Literally very liberating.
2-star Mishelin award granted on this very predictive post.
Bless your little heart, you have the same poll numbers here as Trump.
It’s the combination of smug gloating with the refusal to evidence any actual movement anywhere that does it for me. “I’m sooooo rich I moved out hahahahaahaha no I can’t tell you where I moved or you’d follow me teehee!”
Reminds me of that one kid in school who incessantly claimed to have a girlfriend who never happened to be in town because she “lives in Canada in her family’s mansion”.
Since Kalshi is partly owned by Trumps kid, I wonder if he (or his family) are betting against himself in the midterms in order to make money on the bets.
Would not surprise me in the least as Trump vocally supported Pete Rose who bet against his team.
Google:
No, there is no official evidence that Pete Rose ever bet against his team, the Cincinnati Reds. Major League Baseball’s 1989 investigation by John Dowd, subsequent uncovered notebook records from 1986 reported by ESPN, and Rose’s own public confession in 2004 all maintain that he only bet on the Reds to win.However, sports investigators and MLB officials argue that betting only on his team to win still compromised the integrity of the games. By choosing only to wager on certain days, Rose implicitly signaled to bookmakers and opponents when he lacked confidence in his team—such as when specific reserve pitchers were scheduled to start. This selective betting gave the appearance that he could manipulate managerial decisions, such as resting key players or overusing the bullpen, depending on whether he had money on the game.
Karoline Levitt actually said something we should ALL agree on:
“Americans need to get out and vote like President Trump is on the ballot”
as the Republican Party does NOTHING to stop the insanity.
Hmm. Why doesn’t he just lick boat batteries?
This repubs and dems must really love each other. Both sides are so awful, that by one being elected, almost assures the other side gets a shot next time as the people with goldfish memories will vehemently reject the status quo.
Only one side attacked the Capitol and tried to kill the Vice President.
Even if one side is worse, my point stands: neither keeps voters happy for long, so power just keeps flipping.
If this incumbency persists, the republic stands to crack apart. Bad, each in their own way, but absolutely not equally bad. One is posing a ski-jump into disorder. The other is perhaps slower which means more manageable, more tractable.
We agree both are bad, so the real question is what “slower” buys us. Slower only helps if someone uses the time to fix things, and a party that only has to be less bad than the other side has no reason to fix anything. That’s how the bar keeps dropping: each cycle’s lesser evil becomes the next cycle’s baseline. Vote for the slower one if you feel you have to, but don’t mistake it for a way out. That cycle is part of what’s cracking the republic.
Yes, the system is unstable, oscillating. Too much executive power (matching legislative paralysis, ultimately tracking back to voters’ poor choices, breaking down meaningful feedback), creates a hard flip and flop. this is destroying industries (autos, energy) and communities, IMO.
Agreed, and I’m glad you raised executive power. I think “breaking down meaningful feedback” is the key. With two options, a vote carries one bit: keep them or flip them. So an unhappy electorate can only send a flip, and with this much power at the top, every flip lands hard. I’d push power down and out: less at the top, and more real options on the ballot, so voters can say something more precise than “not them.” I dream of a fourth branch, a direct democracy branch, checked by the other three just like they check each other.
Will Trump ban diesel export by EO and delay losing the case until after the election? Everybody wins!
We can’t get diesel fuel to Ohio, how the fuck are we getting it to Europe?
Europe pays more. Ohio needs to ante up.
Has the system got so fucked up that people believe BETTING MARKETS are the same as (or better than?!) opinion polls?!
Everyone has an opinion, but few people are wiling to put their own money where their mouth is.
It doesn’t matter whether or not they have the money to (or can spare the money to) gamble. It only matters that they have a vote. Only polls of voters should count. It is pathetic to take predictions from gambling sites.
Yes and typically those people are idiots, as shown by the fact that most gambling market players lose money overall or break even at best.
“I’m not voting for Democrats though. I will vote
Libertarian. I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils”
Because Both Parties Are Two Wings of the Same
Bird – Headed By The Mossad “Epstein’ Island PDF
‘Club’ Member’s.!
The 25 Year ‘War Of Terror’ For ‘Greater Israel’ Land Grab
(Control Middle East Oil Supply).! (‘Finishing Off – Iran’)
Gen W. Clark 2001
Million’s Dead – Million’s Injured – Million’s Displaced
Created Worldwide Immigrant Crisis.!
Need New Nuremberg Trials + Executions
Congrats for supporting the Republicans and sending a message to Biden.
The Democrat running in my district is a consultant-based airhead, with a great smile who will do anything leadership asks.
I already have a Republican congressman who does the exact same thing.
Not voting for either one.
Except that there is more than one issue.
Every day it rots, this smells more and more like the delusional rationalizations of the insane.
Prediction markets are thinly traded, hence can be nudged, by players not looking strictly to feed the truth machine (they claim to be), or even win the bet, but to propagate PR.
First the polls now the betting sites.
Have we not learned our lesson that these are mostly BS at least the ones that are reoported on by our “Free Press” or quoted by late night host!
Ffs does that make anything better? Being unwilling to vote for the lesser of 2 evils is a symptom of the disease we all share. We all know we are sick but won’t take our medicine.
Someone, perhaps the indi ca blogger, recently rephrased it more simply as “voting for one of the two evils”.
I had to remove the period between “indi” and “ca” before the comment platform allowed publication.
@Mish, do you have a plan to migrate your blog to a platform that does not censor? I think an independent blogger like you — someone smeared a decade ago by “PropOrNot” — would want to.
Wait until the surveillance state thought police (or whatever private entities) start reverse engineering these blogs. Won’t happen? I can only hope. Political warfare is getting extremely granular (singers, late night comedians, …).
no. I have so much Jew baiting, N baiting death-wising etc it wouls be insane to run unfiltered.
I’m sorry. And I say that without a hint of snark intended.
The qualifier is important. Don’t pretend otherwise.
Actually, this time, voting DNC might be voting for the greater good, as long as they remove the Orangutan from office.
There is absolutely no possibility of him being removed from office. The pattern is set. The Republicans will double down on MAGA.
So by voting Libertarian you are basicaly saying you do not care whether a Republican or Democrat wins whatever seat you are casting a vote for. Given the current set of circumstances, that is an irrational choice.
Your logic is idiotic
Mish, I do not think so. Your choices for dinner are chicken or fish. The fact that you prefer steak and continue to order steak does not change the fact that when your meal is served it will be chicken or fish. By continuing to opt for steak you leave it to someone else to make the choice of chicken or fish for you. I do not see how that is a rational decision.
No, libertarian is a choice too. If enough people voted for it, they would win. Even if they didnt win but still got a lot of votes, the politicians would see there is a strong drive for fiscal responsibility, and would take it more seriously. R and D have had more than enough time and chance to improve things.
Hi syncopatient,
Under “normal” circumstances I understand your position. But this is not a normal set of circumstances. In these circumstances, if you do not vote against Trump (Republicans) then you are tacitly ok with what is happening in our country.
Is that the case? From your perspective, under current conditions, the choice between Dems and Reps is just “six of one, half a dozen of another”?
I will only be happy if & when the Congress goes back to doing it’s primary job, which is to hold the Executive’s feet to the fire.
Until then I reserve judgement.
>> when the Congress goes back to doing it’s
>> primary job, which is to hold the Executive’s
>> feet to the fire.
I thought it was to decide what laws to pass, to help improve constituents’ lives.
Are you thinking the “executive”, the public servant whose jobnit is to execute those laws, is instead another word for “king”? Well, Trump seems to think so. Guess that’s where we are.
The English Parliament was largely constructed to displace away from the King various prerogatives formerly his, replacing his (often arbitrary/crazily individual) decrees with legislation. So yes, it is in a sense to block the executive from overreach.
Weren’t we supposed to be a different system than a kingdom?
I feel like the goalpost was moved, along with the overton window and how even people on “libertarian” blogs discuss this.
And with time, we all accept worse and worse.
This what lesser of two evils leads too… Eventually we’ll be arguing that democrats harvesting homeless people’s organs is totally okay, at least they not epstein!
We could all veer into extravagant speculative examples, yes, but this would not be much of.a discussion. It would be a cacophony.
unthinkable extremes like genocide have come from routine political degradation like in germany so its good to be mindful of how low we can go.
This is our lineage. the Founders deeply researched prior examples, including primarily England, on their way to our setup. They were scholars of things that worked and didn’t. Constitutional thinking is shot through with English thinkers such as John Locke. Magna Carta was an obvious precursor too. The new system didn’t just spring out fresh: to the contrary.
A primary pertinent example: federal taxes are to be voted by the Congress. This came to us from the Parliamentary precedent ousting the British king from that. This, and its logic, is the foundation of the SCOTUS ruling this year against Trump’s massive first tariffs.
Our immediate problem is the executive branch.
This has been drifting in that direction over 120 years. The book Trajectory of Power: The Rise of the Strongman Presidency, traces it back as far as Teddy Roosevelt (though we can look at Andrew Jackson and Lincoln before that). The problem now is that, all that increasing Congressional delegation of power, and deference, to the President in the modern age, presupposed a certain amount of sanity and integrity in the President. Yes, colossal dumb things have been done previously, but that’s the one thing that really broke this time.
Hence, a President willing to casually abuse the term “emergency” as a legal loophole to apply to issues that had accrued slowly and visibly over 50 years, involving long term political beefs, such as immigration and multi-decade global trade issues, which decent sense would consider precisely the issues to involve the deliberative branch, the Legislative. But part of the problem is that, in the recent decades, Congress atrophied, so it lost the reflexes and muscles and consultative skills to do what it should. It abdicated, throwing all these messes into presidential laps. Hence the wild swings in policy from president to president. And the People are too stupid to apply any corrective action.
A Third Of Americans Still Can’t Name The 3 Branches Of Government
https://studyfinds.com/americans-cant-name-3-branches-government/