For those counting, that would be a pickup of five seats. Iowa on deck for six.
Note the 59 percent Kalshi Senate Odds at 59 percent for Democrats, a new high.
Polymarket Balance of Power
The Polymarket Balance of Power odds are at a record high 60 percent for Democrats as well.
Texas Senate
The Polymarket Texas Senate odds are also a record high 57 percent for Talarico.
Iowa Senate
The weirdest poll is the traditionally overweight-for-republicans Rasmussen has the Iowa Senate: Democrat Turek Leads by 5 Points
The betting markets don’t seem to believe it with Kalshi at 60 percent Republican and Polymarket at 61 percent republican.
In contrast, Nate Silver Classic has it 55 percent for Democrats but Deluxe at 46.7 percent.
Let’s call this one a tossup until we get more polls.
Dumbest Political Blunder in History
Approval Rating
Backlash
Texas Polls
Looking Ahead
- There is no reason to believe Trump will do anything to fix anything.
- There is every indication he will continue to say stupid things that will cost him votes.
For example …
Trump Says He Could Ban Fishing
Trump “Quite Impressed” With His Own Intelligence
I look Forward to This
Ted’s Warning
Trump Explains Trade Deficits
Note: That is not a direct quote on bananas but it accurately represents what Trump said.
More on Trade Deficits
That was an accurate quote.
Even Fox News Sees It
And Finally
Trump would prefer to be electrocuted than face sharks.
Hmm. Why doesn’t he just ban sharks?
What to Expect
Expect more asinine comments by Trump on his IQ, fishing, sharks, Iran, the ballroom, whatever.
Then in 46 days expect a well-deserved Republican bloodbath.
I’m not voting for Democrats though. I will vote Libertarian. I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils.
Related Posts
September 15, 2026: Nate Silver Senate Odds Jumped to 60 Percent Range for Democrats
Let’s discuss Silver’s three models plus the betting markets.
September 16, 2026: The House Adjourns Early to Stop a Hegseth Impeachment Vote
Rep Massie is having fun. Hegseth would have been impeached.
September 17, 2026: Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote
Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans.
I will only be happy if & when the Congress goes back to doing it’s primary job, which is to hold the Executive’s feet to the fire.
Until then I reserve judgement.