Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans.
Tariffs Backfiring on Trump
I am pleased to report that ridiculus tariffs are backfiring on Trump.
A Cato Institute/Morning Consult poll shows 75% of Americans Say Tariffs Will Be Important to Their Vote in the Midterms
74% Say President Trump’s Tariffs Have Raised Prices; 53% Say Tariffs Have Weakened the Economy, 70% Say the President Needs Congressional Approval to Impose Tariffs
A new Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters finds that three in four (75%) say tariffs will be important to their vote in this November’s midterm elections.
Nearly the same share—74%—say that Trump’s tariffs increased the prices of things they buy at the store, including 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. Majorities say the tariffs are a tax on Americans (57%) and believe they have weakened the US economy (53%), while just 23% say the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life.
Overall, 57% have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump’s handling of trade policy (an increase from 54% in March), while 43% have a favorable view.
Together, these findings suggest tariffs could pose a political liability for Republicans in the midterms, particularly among independents and voters concerned about higher prices. The survey finds that a plurality of Americans plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the Republican candidate by 47% to 42%, with 11% unsure.
eds Congressional Approval to Impose Tariffs
A new Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters finds that three in four (75%) say tariffs will be important to their vote in this November’s midterm elections.
Nearly the same share—74%—say that Trump’s tariffs increased the prices of things they buy at the store, including 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. Majorities say the tariffs are a tax on Americans (57%) and believe they have weakened the US economy (53%), while just 23% say the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life. Overall, 57% have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump’s handling of trade policy (an increase from 54% in March), while 43% have a favorable view.
Together, these findings suggest tariffs could pose a political liability for Republicans in the midterms, particularly among independents and voters concerned about higher prices. The survey finds that a plurality of Americans plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the Republican candidate by 47% to 42%, with 11% unsure.
Most Believe Tariffs Have Driven Up Prices
While Americans like the idea of boosting American manufacturing, the public has soured on the inflationary impacts of President Trump’s tariffs. According to the fall survey, nearly three-fourths (74%) say Trump’s tariffs have increased the prices of what they buy at the store, with nearly half (49%) who say the tariffs have worsened their personal quality of life. The perception that tariffs have caused price increases is bipartisan: majorities of Democrats (84%), Republicans (66%), and independents (73%) all agree. Similarly, neither a majority of Democrats nor Republicans feel the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life, with 16% of Democrats, 11% of independents, and 33% of Republicans who say that tariffs have helped them personally.
Where Tariffs Raise Prices
Q: Where do tariffs raise prices?
A: Everywhere
Even 66 percent of Republicans understand this.
Most Think Tariffs Are a Tax on Americans
On the 2024 campaign trail, President Trump assured voters, “A tariff is a tax on a foreign country. That’s the way it is, whether you like it or not. A lot of people like to say, ‘Oh, it’s a tax on us.’ No, no, no. It’s a tax on a foreign country … it’s a tax that doesn’t affect our country.”
However, most Americans disagree. The fall survey found that a majority (57%) view tariffs as a tax increase on Americans. This includes 29% who think tariffs are primarily a tax increase on Americans and 28% who think tariffs are both a tax increase on Americans and foreign countries equally. Only 21% agree with the president that tariffs are only a tax increase on other countries, while 8% think they are not a tax increase and 14% don’t know. Notably, 40% of Republicans also view tariffs as a tax on Americans, as well as 54% of independents and 74% of Democrats. This demonstrates that a substantial share of the president’s own party don’t agree with him about tariffs not being a tax.
Tax on US Consumers
The above chart shows that Trump has managed to brainwash 29 percent of the poopulation.
Americans Support the Goals of “Buy American,” But Not If It Costs Them More
While Americans have soured on Trump’s trade policy, Americans like many of the goals associated with tariffs more than the tariffs themselves. Americans, including members of President Trump’s own party, are quite price sensitive.
Americans like the idea of making more things in America: for instance, the March survey found that 70% say the country would be better off with more factory workers, 53% initially would support a tariff on foreign-made blue jeans to encourage domestic production, and in August a plurality (45%) would favor a tariff on most imports to encourage companies to create more jobs and make more products in America.
Yet, the August survey found Americans wouldn’t pay even $100 a year in higher household costs in order to bring manufacturing home. Only 38% said they’d be willing to accept even $100 in additional household costs to encourage companies to create more jobs and manufacture more products in America.
How Much Would You Pay to Support US Manufacturing
That chart surprises me. I think it’s about right, but I would have guessed people would say more but not do so in practice.
But people are so damn fed up with price hikes they admit how they would act.
Americans Aren’t Convinced Tariffs Achieve Their Intended Goals
Americans are skeptical that tariffs actually achieve their intended goals. Only 42% think that tariffs are “effective” at encouraging Americans to buy American-made products instead of foreign-made imported products, while 41% say they are “ineffective” and 17% don’t know either way, according to the August survey.
There exists a significant partisan divide: 62% of Republicans believe tariffs are effective at nudging people to buy American products; conversely, 60% of Democrats think tariffs are ineffective. Independents are more likely to say tariffs are ineffective (46%) than effective (27%).
More say Trump’s tariffs harmed US manufacturing
Two-thirds of Americans prefer free trade with exceptions for national security
Methodology
The Cato Institute, in collaboration with Morning Consult, conducted the Cato 2026 Fall Trade and Populism National Survey from August 13–16, 2026, among 4,150 registered voters. The modeled margin of error for the full sample is ±2 percentage points. Cato, in collaboration with Morning Consult, conducted the Cato 2026 Spring Trade National Survey from March 27–29, 2026, from a sample of 2,002 registered voters. The modeled margin of error for the full sample is ±2 percentage points.
There is more discussion and many more charts in the article. I encourage a closer look.
Thanks CATO!
Senate Odds Jumped to 60 Percent Range for Democrats
In case you missed it, please see Nate Silver Senate Odds Jumped to 60 Percent Range for Democrats
Let’s discuss Silver’s three models plus the betting markets.
2025 tariffs became 2026 corporate welfare. You can’t get fooled again!
Also important would be an interim global equity crash …
The SPX lost 44-45% from its 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation to its initial 13 Nov 1929 nadir.
This 2025-2026 private credit expansion propelling chip/AI/data-center bubble over-investment, over-production, over-valuation mania is different than 1929. In 1929 no one had created a concurrent global energy, helium, fertilizer, et. al., global supply crisis.
What percentage will the SPX lose from its 13 Aug 2026 peak valuation to its 2-3 November 2026 initial nadir?
Americans Support the Goals of “Buy American,” But Not If It Costs Them More
Americans lost jobs to gain cheaper consumer goods. It’s the other side of the coin. I just watched a couple recent local YTube vids, of numerous currently empty store fronts on Hollywood and Sunset boulevards. No business owners, no workers, no landlords collecting rent, and no taxes to pay for local services.
Thus, in a room of 100 people, of all sorts, I will find 23 that ACTUALLY BELIEVE in the shit that is going on as “GOOD.”
SHEESH!
That is blind devotion to Party.
I recall a neighbor telling me that Kamala was the “GREATEST PRES. CANDIDATE IN HISTORY!”
I nearly spit out my gulp of water standing over there.
It amazed me. That cackling Idiot COULD have been Pres?
But, we now have a LYING FOOL and POMPOUS ass for a President.
THIS IS ALL WE GOT?
She would have been substantially better than Trump. You didn’t see that. So of the two of you, well, one was truly an idiot. They come with cabinets. Biden’s was vastly better than Trump’s. In November the same fools are going to vote Red.
In 2020, she didn’t get a single delegate.
https://samkriss.substack.com/p/i-told-you-so
Wow this parade of info is really inauspicious for The Trump GOP. Seems their prospects are dropping like a rock.
They are not worried. They intend to indulge in massive election fraud.
Emerging narrative: if the USA did have leverage to accomplish global manufacturing re-shoring or friend-shoring, Trump’s gimmicky approach not only threw costs broadly up front on Americans, it stumbled and failed in all objectives. It made us worse off on all fronts. Meanwhile our finances and institutions weakened in a variety of ways. He is a comprehensive failure. Finally this is trickling down to even the more suckered among us, by the blunt force of rising prices.
Well said.
Instead of tariffs, how about manufacturers explain why their prices are too high and what investments the federal government can make that would reduce those costs? Then a contract is drawn up, those investments are made, and those costs lowered, or the federal government charges significant fines for failure to perform.
Though honestly, the problem in the US is Wall Street wants to put US corporations is massive amounts of debt, so they can’t reduce costs to be competitive. The feds would be better off asking Chinese manufacturers what they need to produce in the US and make those investments.
Now do Chinese EVs
We already did that. We transferred global manufacturing to Asia: primarily to China.
cato used to be very good. now they are hacks. i attended an invitation only all day seminar a few years back and i was shocked at the war mongering by zion and usa. back in 2001 after the twin tower attack, they had a brains and balls. like the aclu. i wouldn’t trust a poll from cato. the cult of trump is still around. just sulking. and pissed off.
They were never good. The Hysteria Foundation, Cato, etc., always up to total no good.
The cruelty of Oceania rulers tells me they will eventually “mow the lawn” in the backyard too.
Until then, have fun kids. Don’t forget to vote.
A choice between turds and pieces of shit.
Even though Tariffs are a major issue,the attack on Iran compounded and multiplied the adverse effects of tariffs. Overall it seems the masses are worried about the higher cost of living.
this to me is a no brainer What tariffs brought prices down??
The point though, is whether this will become apparent to the persistent non-brainers in the electorate who have kept this dog and pony show going.
YEP…
Plenty of Trump devotees here…
I’m sure they can curate a long list /s
THEY ARE QUIET HERE.
No, they just migrated into “well both sides are bad.”
That shit fools nobody.
Both sides are bad. That means exactly what I said. Both sides.
n.b. Trump and Biden deserve The Nuremberg Treatment.
America did better financially and economically during the Cold War than they are doing today because they squandered the peace dividend by sending manufacturing overseas and engaging in excessive consumerism. If you sell your pots and pans, you won’t be able to pay someone else to make your meals forever. Then you don’t have money to buy new pots and pans to make meals for yourself.
The prosperity that ensued after the War increased the cost of Labor,Unions wanted :
“MORE” .Whether it is justified or not i a moot point.Oligarchs wanted cheap Labor and hence the off-shoring. That is USA’s prosperity worked against itself proving Newton’s Third Law.
The threat of communism persuaded “I saved capitalism” FDR and most oligarchs after to throw the serfs a bone.
Up until the USSR dissolved.
Yup. Europeans like to tell themselves that “social europe” was invented because europeans are so civilized, but really it was fear of Soviet-style communism.
Our manufacturing leverage was already largely gone, offshored. The challenge was to figure out an optimal strategy, given that fact. Trump failed comprehensively to do so, while promoting a sales pitch.
I am not naive ENOUGH to believe that he even meant a word of his shallow promises.
Oh, let’s not forget the Blood Suckers in Congress and our Governors and local Officials.
Here is OREGON there is a FEEDING FRENZY by local Portland Politicians (we do not live there)…and we have a Governor, and get ready:
KOTEK. As in “KOTEX.”
===============================
Everyone calls her that. It is hilarious. I always go, “Kotex” and not even with a HINT of a smile.
People laugh at that.
The answer is?
Do not ever buy pots and pans and just go out for junk food…you know, that food that is on TV screens and ALL of that shit is either ORANGE or Yellow or BOTH. Take a look.
Orange and YELLOW. SICKENING.
No, the US did better during the Cold War because it was the only industrialized country with its factories standing after the War of the Colonial Powers II. As soon as the other industrialized countries rebuilt their factories, their former specialties displaced the Usonian ones gradually. Then, as more countries became industrialized**, suddenly.
** Before 1939, 8 to 12 countries had industrial economies. By the end of the 20th century, 40 to 50 countries.
Trump’s tariffs have been a disaster. He promised to release the Epstein files then kept them hidden. He promised no wars and then started one that’s thrown the world economy into turmoil. On the other hand he’s building a ballroom and renamed Lake Ontario to Lake American. So, I’m torn… /s
If he touches the Kennedy Center he’s going to need to declare a national emergency
He’s going to demolish it.
Who will do jack squat about it?
I stopped doing jack squat when I was old enough to drink.
Squat is not all that tasty.
I was alive when Kennedy Got shot (Grade School). It was a very strange moment in US History.
Then, the cover-up, the assassination of Oswald; then YEARS later the JFK film showed the lies in living color and NOTHING happened.
NOTHING.
NOTHING.WILL.HAPPEN…. today in our Current “ERECTION” CYCLE.
Little gerrymandering/ some conservative media/ through in some fear mongering about socialist Muslims. Or socialist Muslims. They may not do as bad as we think.
Polls don’t seem to agree, nor does any public sentiment. It’s been well over a year since I’ve seen a MAGA sticker in my ruby red town, and we’re currently marked as safe R in November. I can only imagine how ugly it’s going to be in swing states. Cash is king and gas/inflation is managing to get some of the most conservative people I know bitching like no tomorrow.
See bull goose MAGAs all over where I live. One of the mrowki I live with saw a human with a crystal studded “I (heart) Trump!” pin. “Trump 2028” hats, flags, etc. are common.
Polls don’t factor in districts. Ergo, gerrymandering works.
Permanent racist campaigns. I’d like to think we humans are capable of living above that fray, but sadly, I can’t do so honestly.
I try to get news from various sources. I have a hard time with conservative media. There is an underly urgent tone. Of us against them. And the dems are basically the devil. Hard to vote against
I think that the fact that Hispanics feel personally targeted by Trump’s cruel mass deportation efforts will have a much bigger impact on the midterms than tariffs. Since 80-85 percent of undocumented immigrants are Hispanics, Trump and ICE have effectively marked all Hispanics as potential deportation targets. If you are Hispanic, you are not going to like this, and the midterms will be payback time.
agree
I agree also.
So the hispanics that followed the rules paid the price immigrated legally now loosing jobs to illegal immigrants.
They are fighting Trump?
Or 1% of the Hispanics who had a brother or family member deported because they came here against our laws is yelling and screaming loud enough so that our “Free Press” put them on the front page!
2023 was the peak in Hispanic vote for the GOP, arguably tilting the scales. Never again.
Only 29% of Americans view tarrifs as tax only on Americans. WTF!!!!
Almost 50% believe it’s a tax on foreign countries to some degree. I knew alot of folks don’t understand this stuff, but, my God, the electorate is chock full of economic illiterates.
It goes deeper… illiterate innumerants.
Look, the average American is dumb as hell. And 50% of the population is dumber still. I’m surprised that that many people in the poll even knew what a tariff was. As dumb as the average American is, the confidence interval for that poll is probably +/- 30%.
By definition, half of the population has an IQ below 100. That is, half of the population is closer to clinical idiocy than to smarts.
The absolute collapse of the public education system across most of the US is a catastrophic.
Grover Norquist is proud that he helped start the Starve the Beast campaign, and this is his most “glorious victory”
On purpose.
Private education is not different, since it has to follow the federal curriculum and standards.
Case in point, a relative was concerned about his son reading skills, but the private school pointed out that he scored in the 95th percentile. However, that meant that his reading comprehension was at the 4th grade level, though the boy is at 6th grade. Yet, the school was proud of his scores, since that’s how the school is ranked by the federales.
I believe 12-14% of our economy is imports.
So 86-88% of our economy has no tariffs.
Hmmmmm
“You just don’t appreciate the amount of WINNING going on here, ungrateful whiners”
DJTrump
This is only a minor item in the enormous number of negative forces that taco has brought to bear on the population of US.
Undoing this stuff is a massive, existential challenge. Another vast unforced error, piled on whatever else we must process going forward.
All deserved, since the Orange Scourge didn’t just pop into the Oval Office, but was elected not once, but twice to occupy it.
Yeowch! And that’s coming from crooked CATO. Voters must be seething, but who isn’t? You’d have to be a moron to not want the GOP punished for this stunt, if nothing else.