French Election First Round Results – Macron at Risk of Losing Control in Parliament

First round projections image from France 24 Video

Together! is Macron’s party. 

New Popular Union NUPES is a far Left coalition led by Jean-Luc Melenchon’s.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is considered a far Right party. 20 seats is significant. The threshold for having much of any say in negotiations is 15 seats. 

The Far Left Might Cost Macron His Majority

Reuters reports Macron Faces Tough Battle for Control of Parliament After First Round Vote

Initial estimates by Elabe put the hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon’s NUPES bloc neck-and-neck with Macron’s Ensemble! alliance in the first round, with 26.20% and 25.8% respectively.

“In view of this result, and the extraordinary opportunity it offers us and the destiny of the common homeland, I call on people next Sunday to defeat the disastrous politics of the majority, of Macron,” Melenchon said after the vote.

With the two-round system, which is applied to 577 constituencies across the country, the popular vote in the first round is a poor indicator of who will eventually win a majority the following week.

Polls forecast that NUPES may deny Macron an absolute majority in the June 19 second round, which would force the president into having to make unruly bill-by-bill pacts with right-wing parties and could trigger a cabinet reshuffle.

NUPES Platform

  • Melenchon, is a euro-sceptic veteran of the hard left, a longtime admirer of the late Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro and Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chavez. 
  • He wants France to leave NATO and has previously advanced a Russophile stance.
  • NUPES’ manifesto includes pledges to cap the prices of dozens of goods to tame inflation, hiking the minimum wage, reducing the retirement age and a greater distribution of wealth.

More Free Money

NUPES wants more free money and wealth redistribution. 

Macron proposes gradually hiking the retirement age from 62 to 65, while Mélenchon vows to lower it to 60.

Melenchon and US Senator Elizabeth Warren have much in common. 

Warren on Meat Packers

Warren on More Free Money

Warren on Free Child Care

Expand Social Security

Crack Down on Big Oil

Question of the Day

Turnout in round 1 was a record low 47.5% so whichever party can rally voters will win round 2. 

Will it be free money or Macron’s pledge to hike the retirement age that carries the day? 

Normally it’s the party in power that suffers from voter revolts. In the US that would be Democrats and in France, Together!

Over Twenty Million Households Struggle to Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse

Meanwhile, back in the states, Over Twenty Million Households Struggle to Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
French politics are unique in some ways. Five years ago Macron made a new party and won the election. Since he made the party and that party gained a parliamentary majority those voted in rubber-stamped anything Macron wanted. This time he probably won’t have this compliant majority and will have to (gasp!) actually debate the laws before passing them. Mélenchon is somewhat like Warren but he is much smarter and has some charisma that appeals to the far-left. Warren is not very sharp and I don’t see her as taking over. Mélenchon on the other hand could possibly cause trouble. In any case Macron and Mélenchon agree on Ukraine along with most of the traditional right. The choice of a prime minister will be interesting but i any case it is Macron who will make the decisions and he also doesn’t like the prime minister to outshine him. Édouard Philippe can attest to that so there is virtually no way Mélenchon will achieve his ambition to be prime minister although there is a slight chance on of his minions might get the job.
Greggg
Greggg
1 year ago
Off topic: The Chinese bank run of 2022
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
FWIW I see a long recessionary environment ahead. Until Putin is gone he is going to wreak havoc without a care as to who lives or dies
JRM
JRM
1 year ago
Ignore the “FACTS” all the problems were happening before Russia moved into Ukrainian “officially”..
Also, Putin successor is worse!!!
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  JRM
You know his successor? Who is he?
Dr. Odyssey
Dr. Odyssey
1 year ago
For Putin it looks like business as usual.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
LOL. Keep dreaming! But what will actually happen is that this Ukraine disaster (on top of the Afghanistan disaster) is going to lead to regime change in the NATO countries – France (where it has already started), Germany, UK, Italy….

The US has no such thing as a no-confidence vote or snap elections, so Biden will remain until the end of 2024. But after the big defeat for the DONORcrats in November 2022, he will be reduced to aimlessly wandering the hallways of the White House for the next 2 years!

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  whirlaway
“he will be reduced to aimlessly wandering the hallways of the White House for the next 2 years!”
ROTFL. Isn’t that more or less what he’s doing now? Once it was clear BBB was never going to pass, his whole term was guaranteed to be just him wandering the hallways in a fog muttering to himself.
Unless that wandering is a cover (ie keep Republicans focused on his mental deficiencies) while Hunter enriches the Biden family coffers.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
If all debt is made dischargeable then that would solve the debt problems. The US government could then go to a friendly judge that says debt obligations can be dischargeable without declaring bankruptcy. Debt crisis solved. You are welcome.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
1 year ago
Hold on. This “far left wing” guy is an admirer of Castro, Chavez, and (as a Russiaphile) Putin?
Well, that kinda says something about this “far left wing” doesn’t it? God help him if he’s also an admirer of that 4th infamous authoritarian dictator type … Trump.
If you hate the French, and who would not, given their movies and “language”, contribute to his campaign. 🙂
Greggg
Greggg
1 year ago
Elizabeth Warren: “My bill would direct @FTC to investigate anti-competitive practices in the (beef) industry”.
Well, if it was an honest investigation, the finding would show that CONgress and nefarious legislation, resulting in monopolizing of the industry.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Mish,
I am curious why you frequently make posts about France. I understand this is a global economic blog but quite frankly the top trading partners of the US are Canada, Mexico and China with Japan, South Korea and Germany following. When I look up France, it ranks 14 with a meager $30 billion in trade.
Of interesting news is what is happening in Mexico. The president there is talking about nationalizing oil and gas and that would have a huge impact in the US. Whatever happens to Macron is largely irrelevant to us here.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
If Mexico does nationalize, that would likely lead to more supply restrictions for oil. Worth watching.
Lots of things happening all over the world. Though French elections are not very high on my list. I’m more interested in the current 7 day trucker strike in S. Korea. Talk about messing up the supply chain!
Perhaps Mish could do a story on that? It probably has a bigger effect on our economy.
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
France is a NATO country and also a component of the EU. Their politics are relevant to the world economic stage. Especially with Finland and Sweden having this crazy idea to be included in NATO. Turkey has asked for concessions to allow such a move and I think France is still on the Fence.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Christoball
It’s my understanding that Sweden and Finland have been repeatedly unsuccessful in getting their major cities added to Russia’s nuclear strike lists. Hopefully joining NATO will get at least a few cities identified as nuclear targets.
phil
phil
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
I’m currently in Paris, and things are busy. Staying next to a large mall in a not-wealthy neighborhood. About 160 shops. And many very nice and chic. The mall is packed and business appears good.

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