The base forecast is 1.2 percent with real final sales at 0.9 percent and real final private domestic sales at 1.8 percent.
As of April 21, the GDPNow base forecast is 1.2 percent.
GDPNow Current Numbers
- Headline GDP Nowcast: 1.2 percent
- Real Final Sales: 0.9 percent
- Real Final Private Sales: 1.8 percent
Real Final Sales vs GDP
The difference between GDP and Real Final Sales (RFS) is Change in Private Inventories that nets to zero over time.
RFS is the actual bottom line number. For that reason, the BEA would be wise to throw the headline number in the garbage.
Understanding GDPNow
GDPNow is a “Nowcast Estimate” not a prediction. It’s a running estimate of what the BEA would report IF the BEA were to produce a GDP report at the current time.
Initial estimates often look and often are ridiculous. That’s not a bug it’s a design feature.
As economic reports come in, the nowcasts tend to stabilize a bit. In this case, it was mostly a slow sink.
Quarter Evolution
The bounce on April 21 was due to retail sales, mostly gasoline, but it counts.
Estimated Contributions
CIPI stands for Change in Private Inventories.
Inventories net to zero over time. That means the base number is not the best one to follow.
Real final sales is only 0.9 percent, but real final private domestic sales is a solid 1.8 percent.
Net exports are negative.
I am suspicious of a these numbers due to the Supreme Court tariff decision and because of gold and silver exports.
But I have no better number to offer. The Econoday consensus is 2.1 percent for the headline number which I suspect is high.
Finally, the international trade in goods report tomorrow could changes these estimates a lot.
June Brent $114.62, WTI $103.41.
20 & 30 years hovering near 5% but being well managed by the powers that be…
https://www.cnbc.com/markets/bonds/
Let’s see what JPow says today.
Gold is being exported to foreign customers and they are paying for it with their dollar reserves. Reminds me of the French wanting to exchange their dollars for gold in 1970 because the gold was worth more than the dollars that were collateralized by same said gold. BING, BANG ,BOING, the gold standard was ended. Now the dollars are worth less than gold because American Culture , Military Dominance, and Empire Projection is worthless as a backing for the dollar.
If Powell had listened to reason and reduced interest rates GDP would be 15%. Seriously. 15%. Not kidding. 15%.
And inflation and corresponding dollar devaluation would be 22%
And real final sales would be -7%. Seriously. Not kidding. -7%.
Whose reason? Trumps? Gimme a break.