There are three messages. Do you see them?
Three Messages
- Gold does not believe the Fed is under control
- Gold does not believe Congress is under control
- Gold does not believe Trump is under control
And neither do I.
Think!
- If you think either Congress will do anything about soaring deficits, then think again.
- If you think DOGE will do anything about soaring deficits, then think again.
- If you think Trump will do anything about soaring deficits, then think again.
- If you think tariffs will offset spending that Trump demands and Congress will deliver, then think again.
- If you think the Fed will stop monetizing the debt, then think again.
Buying Votes for a “Big Beautiful Bill”
Trump will buy as many votes as it takes to get support for his “big beautiful bill”.
Number one on the table is restoration of State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions. This benefits Democrats and Republicans in Big Blue states, especially New York.
The Committee for a Responsible Budget estimates full restoration of SALT would cost $920 billion over 10 years.
The TCJA tax extension will cost $3.9 trillion.
Why stop there?
Trump wants to but more votes with no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security benefits, and new deductions for interest on auto loans.
No DOGE to the Rescue
To pay for all of this DOGE has come up with $150 billion in alleged savings of which only about $12 billion is real.
For discussion, please see How Much Money Has DOGE Really Saved, and Where Will it Go?
Let’s do some fact checks on DOGE claims and reality.
Trump Promises $1 trillion in Defense Spending for Next Year
Also note Trump Promises $1 trillion in Defense Spending for Next Year
Even bigger budget deficits are now in store due to the first $1 trillion defense budget.
Meanwhile, the lies that it will pay for itself continue along with praise from the cult.
For discussion of the truly absurd, please see Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
Lutnick: “We’re going to make the External Revenue Service replace the Internal Revenue Service.”
And finally Republicans Have One Chance to Reform Medicaid, They Will Blow It
Republicans, including Trump, won’t fix anything if it costs votes.
There is no political will by Congress or Trump to do anything about deficits out of control.
If you think we are headed for a currency crisis, then you are thinking correctly.
Don’t ask me when, because no one knows. But the message is unmistakable.
This chart says it all. Every time the market thinks central banks have inflation under control, gold goes quiet. But the moment reality hits—QE, massive debt, fiscal insanity—gold screams louder than ever. Just look at the recent surge in the gold spot price. We’re watching faith erode in real time, not just in the Fed but in the entire political system. It’s not just about Trump or Biden or DOGE. It’s about a system addicted to debt, where short-term votes matter more than long-term stability. Hard assets don’t lie—politicians do. Buckle up.
“Gold is money. All else is credit.”
— J.P. Morgan
Another thing that is affecting the gold market right now is the large delivery month of gold futures and options for the June contract that expire on May 27th. June is a large physical delivery month. All of us should be hoping that the deliverable gold is not re-hypothicated too many times…
Currency crisis for who? The periphery currencies, which includes the euro and yen will implode before the US Dollar (core).
Once again, you fail to mention war, which is the biggest driver for gold. Yes, economic turmoil caused by excessive debt is the excuse for war, but it is war that’s behind gold moving from London and Zurich to NYC.
the big move was tariffs. but wars will make folks move their gold and stocks and bonds and r/e ownership too. most people don’t know that baghdad and kabul had the greatest r/e appreciation after the amerikan bombing and invasion and also the loss. all those billions of dollars of us treasury funds made r/e soar over there. my russian oligarch pals pointed this out to me early on in the wars……….
there is no coming back for USA gov. Weimar here we come.
any day now is good time to buy gold. just wait for 5*10% pull back, or 50avg
and if it is physical it is even better
Profit margins at top tier mining companies are over 200% in many cases and they eclipse all of the magnificent seven’s substantially.
Undervalued in my opinion. The market disagrees with me.
No problem, I bought xxx during July of 2023 for what was then a 4% dividend and exposure to the gold market. It has outperformed my expectations and remains undervalued.
Buying gold in 2015 was a good idea.
there is no coming back for USA gov. Weimar here we come.
any day now is good time to buy gold. just wait for 5*10% pull back, or 50avg
and if it is physical it is even better.
“The new blivet bill will generate $910 billion revenue in 10 years.”
Who cares what it does in ten years. The budget is for one year.
“The new blivet bill will generate $910 billion revenue in 10 years.”
Who cares what it does in ten years. The budget is for one year.
y = e to the x power long before TRUMPTRUMPTRUMP came along. When you get to the handle of the “hockey stick curve” it tends to blow up in somebody’s face.
In context, came off the rails about 60 years ago, LBJ Vietnam and Great Society Welfare State. The oldest Boomer was 19, not eligible to vote. The Heroic Bushcos never budgeted for their neverending wars, either.
You forgot about the biggest one: war
Adding to the risks are insanely high tariffs that are essentially embargoes.
Trade wars ignite Hot War’s…
MIsh – I have a few questions regarding mining and tariffs:
Example: Mining company X has a valuation of its underground gold at $1,500 per ounce. The real value of the asset is $3,000. When is this recognized?
Over time I have seen many “Impairment” charges when gold goes down and assets are written down. Are there any rules for write up’s?
Thanks again!
= gold and simple math
USA gov debt – 37 trln
yearly deficit – 2 – 2.2 trln$, no reducing so far! doge my as11s!
avg rate %10y – 4- 5%
tax collections 4.*5 *5 trln per year
cost of service of debt – 1*1.5 trln $, and 2 trln $ w/in 3*4 years
USA is banane republic on steroids.
Alex,
How do you really feel?
The real issue for gold is that many other nations are growing their debt at insane levels. The world is awash in printing as demand is being driven forward by debt. Japan went way further into debt proportionately and their currency did not completely collapse.
Never forget that the U.S. owns the quoting system for the dollar as well as the worlds banking system. Huge advantage to the home team!
Regardless of the U.S.’s influence on gold it will continue to go up against many currencies.
What country are you from? I’m in the U.S.
Japan went way further into debt proportionately and their currency did not completely collapse.
====
very good observation regarding japan.
yes Japanese debt levels are insane but Japanese economy is pretty much closed out system + speculation is frown upon, Japanese are gov/social fabric/ country first, they are not so individualistic as Americans+ Japanese still do some good stuff, and export alot.
so there is no much insanity on price level inside in japan, NOT YET!
alx
ps
i am russian , in Russia
Thanks I/we appreciate your perspective even though we are supposed to be on opposite teams. 😉
I am of the opinion that all people are basically good and we all love our children/families and want success for all. I hope our governments can get out of our way of being peaceful neighbors!
Enjoy!
forecast
GOLD 2025 – 4000$ top
GOLD 2026 – 5000$
GOLD 2027 – 6000-6500$
AND ON ON ON
EACH YEAR price of GOLD will grow at least 1000$ , forever!
you can take my forecast on gold into bank
…. where they will stare at me like a crazy person.
fu11ck bankers!
= gold and simple math
USA gov debt – 37 trln
yearly deficit – 2 – 2.2 trln$, no reducing so far! doge my as11s!
avg rate %10y – 4- 5%
tax collections 4.*5 *5 trln per year
cost of service of debt – 1*1.5 trln $, and 2 trln $ w/in 3*4 years
USA is banane republic on steroids.
===========
forecast
GOLD 2025 – 4000$ top
GOLD 2026 – 5000$
GOLD 2027 – 6000-6500$
AND ON ON ON
EACH YEAR price of GOLD will grow at least 1000$ , forever!
you can take my forecast on gold into bank
The U.S. dollar is just one of many currencies that are suffering from over-printing and massive debt. Many hold it as the least dirty shirt in the hamper…
With trump and the republicans doing almost nothing to control spending and trumps destruction of our trading relationships and the looming recession which will crush tax revenues things will get considerably worse as imports dry up, exports fall and service and tourism revenues dry up.
DOGE is a mere political hack job which is delivering almost nothing in tangible results and by all objective measurements, trumps second term is only more flailing in front of the TV cameras. Same stunning lack of thoughtfulness and comprehension as during his mis-management of covid.
The old adage: “When the U.S. catches a cold, the world gets the flu” can now be extrapolated to: “When the U.S. fails to lead, no one follows the U.S. any more”. Trust – once destroyed, is difficult to earn back.
The times are changing friends and the U.S. is being shunned and displaced was a trusted nation.
It only follows that the dollar sags in value with a president that only cares about driving people to his meme currencies or lame social media platform.
Perhaps it is time for the worlds dividend paying large mining companies to re-value their underground assets to reflect a portion of their above ground value.
Credit default swaps are starting to crack. 6 more months left then the Treasury Secretary will be on TV announcing Tarp II. Something will have to give or it’s dejavu all over again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program
Trump plans to announce that the US will call the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf, officials say
======
trump has really gone insane!
I bet 100$ he has no slightest idea about history of region!
jesus!!
best solution would be DEPORT TRUMP BACK INTO HIS MOTHERLAND- Germany!
Indeed… the Drumph legacy belongs in the Fatherland.
Fair assumption. How nobody talked about deporting Biden back to 6 feet under.
Gold is simply an investment tools now days. No different than BC or Tulips is/was, when it was there speculation time by enough people, to alter its net value. Tulips was dumb, but many people made lots of money. BC is still out, but Many have made a lot, and Many have lost a lot, so it’s a guess, unless in early, and then your potentially very happy! Gold could get confiscated, not likely but it’s a thing. It has went up and down very consistently, so it’s a store of value, but Just hope it’s up when needed. Otherwise invest away, and when needed, if it’s up your very happy!
I will stay with Cash for now, as my primary personally, and small incremental plays (Ex. like Oil) now and again. I can do so fortunately, as I am not chasing returns to exist, but rather to pad.
As always it’s unique to the investors needs, wants, and desires, as to how and what they invest in. Some select “Scratch Tickets/Lottery” as a tool and now and again lighting strikes. Not for Me personally but You do You…
you most likely don’t mean cash. more likely you own computer screen currency. but perhaps you do have all cash. cash is great. as is gold.
Not all cash of course. Safety deposit boxes, Safe, CD’s (Ladder), stocks & Assets (sellable). Money invested either rolls over yearly, guaranteed returns, and can take at any time, no penalty (Losses and/or Taxes perhaps), if needed. Assets are all owned outright, and stocks could suffer a loss if I had to sell, but timing is everything. Smallest portfolio I have anyway.
The message is simply this: there are a number of folks that deeply believe that in the future they will find someone somewhere, anywhere, that will buy their gold for more than they paid for it. The real question is when. I fondly recall when gold went to over $800 US and then down to $240. Surprise.
My point as well Lisa, so you best hope it’s up when needed. Is my issue with it. Cash is never, ever an issue.
Cash buys local food now. Cash may get you a seat on the aeroplane, if you have a letter of transit.
There were tulips and there were derivatives of tulips. When the derivatives markets blow up, then what will be left will be physical and what will vanish will be fantasy x how many times “it” has been rehypothecated. Goes for stock market, bonds, etc.
Mish, George Gammon mentioned that the Crash in the Taiwan currency may well be one in a TRILLION in history. He questions the narratives. Can you cover that story. There many speculation in the exchange rates to make those goods cheaper to make in America? I dunno. I am not that knowledgeable on the subject.
Thanks.
Trump/DOGE are doing what every new administration does. They defund stuff they don’t like and replace it with stuff they like. Biden shut down the keystone pipeline and funded DEI crap. Trump is turning off the DEI spigot while funding military and energy initiatives. It’s never been about saving money it’s about redirecting where the money is spent.
Trump just added more scrutiny by hiring the richest guy in the world to be his hatchet man.
I wish you could dress up your message JUST a TEENSY WEENSY bit, so I can have some hope that TrumpCO means what is says.
What energy initiatives is Trump “funding”?
I hear Trump repeat “beautiful clean coal”. But I don’t see any “funding”. Just like his first term. In his first term the coal industry was decimated with facility closings and job losses.
https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/trumps-war-on-coal
And I hear “drill baby drill.” He wants the oil industry to drill till the price comes down so much that they go out of business. And of course they won’t comply. As the price of oil has been coming down (OPEC adding supply) US drilling has been declining and US production will also decline. Because their breakeven cost for new wells is around $65 and the current price is less than that.
His slogans are catchy. But they are just slogans. I see no “funding”.
Donald Trump is trying to pull another Nixon shock. He wants to drive down the relative value of he dollar by 30% and use tariffs to drive capital to the US. The hope is to drive down the trade deficit to more manageable proportions because they have surpassed sustainability based upon the size of our economy. But he wants to do this while maintaining the dollar as the world’s trading currency, which is why he is blowing up defense spending. Like 1971, this will crush what remains of the American working class. Buying gold is a great hedge.
This is like watching squirrels in the park and imagining that they’re pondering the secrets of the universe behind their beady little eyes.
What caused faith in central banks peak again on 12/17/15?
If the fighting escalate india might sell gold to finance the war.
Each side should have a tug-of-war match across the most polluted river.
Get your American blinkers off Mish. There are 200 other countries and 95% of the worlds population out there and why we buy gold often has little to do with what your country does.
Maybe I and others stack because India and Pakistan are fighting. Or because the CCP is getting desperate trying to contain all their problems and might fall back to starting wars with its neighbours to divert its populations attention.
Or maybe we stack because every fiat currency is getting worth less so my fiat AUD and fiat EGP become toilet paper no different than your fiat USD.
Multiply me by many millions of others plus the central banks and yes gold keeps rising in fiat terms even if the US gets its shit together.
You might want to add that the Covid Scamdemic was a diversion from the realities of a Financial System break-down. The REPO window slammed shut in 2019.
Best comment on this thread. The Cares Act was already written and on the shelf long before “…only 2 weeks to flatten the curve.” One of the purposes of “the lockdowns” was to stem the velocity of money with the peons while the big banks and hedge funds were bailed out with most of the $7,000,000,000,000.
Likewise The Patriot Act was written long before those intrepid foes with the 1960s grocery store stock boy box cutters came along…
2019 was so obvious in terms of system stress at the time. Covid was a response waiting for a cause, and system stress was the cause.
50% devaluation of dollars in purchasing power for essentials in 5 short years.
50% devaluation of dollars in purchasing power for Gold in 5 short years also.
Nothing has become worth more, it is that the dollar is worth less.
Not in gold for a long time now. Don’t feel like running after it. After it goes up you can always find reasons why it is going up but it always comes down to sentiment and nothing else which is ok. Myself I prefer something with revenues and a balance sheet I can look over. Call it a quirk.
See the gold miners then. GDX is the largest ETF for senior gold miners
and is up 48 % in 2025.
India and Pakistan – two mini nukes powers – fighting escalated. Pakistan is fighting a superstate which hoard gold,
Gold price is the indicator of the health of USD and its issuer.
Could Russia being removed from the SWIFT system and confiscation of Russian state assets by the west be a reason? Could it be a pretense for ongoing central bank purchases?
russian money blocked around 300 bln$,
USA gov prints 2 trln each year$ . it is less than 1 qrt of financing of budget deficit in USa
I’ve learned a lot about democracy.
Voters vote who can give more sugar.
Debate winner will be chosen as president – it doesn’t matter his plan / policy
is workable or not.
It is a show, like the “justice show” now on display from both sides in the USA. Which also cuts into the “property rights” and thus, “rule of law” shows. Viewer ratings have gone up worldwide, so apparently that is a “success”!
GREATER FOOL THEORY!!!!
I’ve been riding these fools since 700 oz in 2009…..
Thanks to Mish and ZH.
It’s worth what the next greatest fool pays for it.
Hunk Of pretty colored metal that YOU ALL say is a store of value.
Billions of folks can’t be wrong!!!!
Don’t kill the messenger!!!!
I bought an ounce at 700 and now have 3400.
Got BTC?
Lol
Once folks went irreligious, they needed new things to believe in, to cling to. The attention span collapse means these memes flash before our befuddled eyes. Is it all fads, all the way down?
You’d be richer than Elon if that gold money in 2009 went all in to BTC
Regarding the Precious Metal mining sector:
I have been wondering why the miners stock performance lagged the metal so extremely this time around. It seems that gold has become so unpopular in portfolios (given its lack of dividends) that mining companies financial gains and dividends have gone virtually unnoticed (despite the leverage to the price of gold).
Major mining companies have contained costs and seen their margins rise – to 200% in some cases. The best AI companies have 70% margins – Mining companies blow them away in both growth and margins…
Gold mining companies pay minimal dividends today, they lag in price appreciation of their equities in all measurable accounts. I think this will change in the favor of investors.
The high levels of debt that mining companies accrued to build infrastructure have now been dramatically reduced or eliminated and the carrying costs for debt are reduced or eliminated.
This brings us to the last centuries situation from the 1930’s when Homestake mining was paying huge dividends to shareholders that bought in before the Great Depression hit.
Of course history does not repeat itself – but it sure does rhyme!
The miners aren’t lagging now: For the 52-weeks ended Friday, 5/9/25:
Senior miner AEM: + 73 %
Mid-Tier miner AGI: 72 %
Major Royalty WPM: 54 %
ETF/Senior miners GDX: 48 %
Fortunes are being made right now. We’re in the 3rd inning of a massive 9-inning Gold Bull! It’s bigger than the 1970’s and 2000’s.
i bought a property in 2011, built over a century before when AZ was a territory. in the deed, the first purchaser paid for it with 2500 gold coin. basically the same price i paid for it, priced in gold.
Buying power is the secret to golds success as a store of value. It has no counterparty risk, thus it retains its buying power.
CORRECT. it’s just money. but also the best investment every century compared to any other asset, r/e, stocks, bonds……after factoring taxes and civil and world wars……..and currencies being printed to oblivion. nothing comes close.
Sounds like I should just buy property. Then I won’t have to worry about where to store it.
just worry about insurance, taxes and Eminent domain
I’m loving the gold move. Keep going. There is talk that the US is considering repricing gold. We could just say it’s worth $10,000 per oz, and that would become the new price. We could pay down a big chunk of our debt all at once. It would be very good for China too.
i could see trump doing something radical like that. or devalue the currency by dropping in a million or billion into everyone’s computer currency bank accounts……….like covid drops except with a few more taps of the computer zero at the treasury………and fed.
I was thinking that Trump is so invested in tariffs that he can’t completely capitulate on them even if he wanted to, because of his ego. His solution would be to get the supreme court to rule them unconstitutional and give him an excuse to cancel them. Then he could say; “They would have worked but the Supreme Court forced me to stop them.”
There is no way to reprice gold other than the market
Didn’t FDR reprice it, by executive order? Not sure if it was followed by federal legislation.
see 1932. see 1971. see siracusa in ancient greek island of sicily. you are wrong. when a government outlaws the holding of gold, like 32 or the defaulting of gold to foreign holders, it sure does get repriced. you are very smart mish. i enjoy the blog. this subject you are incorrect. i still have silver with zero cost basis, when LBJ took silver out of our coins. took years for most to catch on. made hoarding them easy as a child. that was a default.
I think the market still does the repricing, regardless of the event.
It’s not 1932 anymore, and it’s not 1971.
Whatever price Trump tries to set for gold, to the extent it differs from the market rate, it’s just going to drive arbitrage opportunities in one direction or the other until equilibrium *with the market rate* is reached. Markets clear.
COMEX (Crimex) and LBMA?
Wrong. Roosevelt confiscated gold and paid $20.56 per ounce. He then repriced it at $35 an ounce, at 70% increase overnight.
Even at $10K, US gold assets would be worth about 2.25T and that is not enough to pay down even 10% of our debt. Certainly not a “big chunk” by any stretch.
Then make it $100,000. Numbers don’t matter when your debt is $36 trillion.
If the govt wanted to make gold “worth” that much, theyd have to pay 100k to anyone wanting to sell gold and the govt being in massive debt doesnt have the money to buy it so they would have to print probably hundreds of trillions which would cause hyperinflation, basic houses would cost maybe a billion, cars, multi millions, it would be ridiculous so they cant do that quickly but sadly it may be reality far in the future and the world would still have all the same problems. The US would probably split up by then also.
I think there may be another big reason gold is going up; investors do not believe in planned economies and Trump is planning our economy. Here is an example of an unintended consequence that I doubt anyone in the Trump administration had thought of in advance:
U.S. potash prices rise with new tariffs on Canadian imports
We are into this fiasco far enough that face saving will be the ultimate game plan no matter how messed up trade gets. Incentives to redirect manufacturing to the US rather than using the bludgeon of tariffs would have been much better. Then there is no art in Trump’s deals, only Trump’s way or the highway, better options will not be considered.
Same for aluminum. We produce 25% of what we need, recycle 25% and import
50%. We don’t have enough cheap electricity to make it worthwhile to produce aluminum in the US.
In 1980, we had 32 facilities producing aluminum. Today we have 4. And they are not competitive because of electricity prices; which is 40% of production cost .
you are the best poster on this blog hands down. thanks for sharing your wisdom. mish is top 10 though.
Agreed!
Thanks. I appreciate that.
I don’t always have time to post. So when I do, I want it to be factual and hopefully relevant.
Mish is great.
This is the only blog I follow.
you are welcome. more stock and investment picks would be awesome, too. i made dough on your picks past years. drinks and dinner on me if you make it to gotham city. we’ll mug some old lady for her gold and silver.
Its just the excuse.
Aluminium is imported from Canada but energy price is more or less the same.
“Its just the excuse”
Nope.
US aluminum production has declined for 45 years because we cannot compete. Our imports keep increasing because it is cheaper to import than produce here.
Go ahead and start your own US production facility if you think different.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/aac01-us-aluminum-imports/
Walmart Supercenter (and others) are at the site of the former massive Reynolds Metals in McCook, Illinois. Sums it all up.
Why are electricity prices so high?
It’s all relative. The US has low electricity prices compared to many other countries. Germany might be 40 cents per kwh, while the US average might be 12 cents.
We get a lot of aluminum from Quebec, because they have a lot of very cheap hydro electricity, averaging around 5 cents per kwh.
Aluminum smelters in Quebec negotiate long term fixed price contracts for electricity, running between 3 and 4 cents per kwh.
Aluminum companies are always looking to build where they can get cheap electricity.
Like stocks, gold is overpriced. But stocks have been the better bet over the long haul.
I would change that slightly to say that gold fluctuates like any asset class. And like any asset class they usually peak when the hype gets this extreme.
Finally, the truth.
Good write up Mish.
Apparently, only 0.5% of all 401k investment dollars are in Gold equities/physical.
Can mutual funds continue to neglect Gold?
Only 40 years ago a typical portfolio contained 10% in gold or gold equities. A reversion to the mean would substantially raise gold equities.
Corporate employer 401K mutual funds are generally roach motels.
The inflation adjusted gold price is now an all time high as well, topping the 3471 of 1979. Anyone can see the price is going parabolic, it’s grandma time. There’s probably 1 more year until the bubble bursts. I’m looking for at least 4k before selling. Let grandma be the bagholder.
So what you are saying is gold is the same price it was 46 years ago, adjusting for inflation. So an $800 ounce of gold is $3471 today.
Interesting.
Meanwhile, a $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1979 would be worth approximately $172,877.20 by the end of 2024, assuming all dividends are reinvested. This represents a return on investment of 17,187.72%, or an average annual return of 11.78%
I won’t fact check your S&P numbers because the general gist of it is correct. That’s if you were unfortunate enough to buy gold in 1979. On the other hand if you took $275 on January 1, 2000 and bought an ounce of gold then it would obviously be worth $3400 now. $275 in an S&P500 fund with dividends reinvested would be $1631.
After 9/11 in 2001, gold was still around $275. I had the sense that with the stock market down and future uncertainty, that it was a good time to buy.
When it was $275, there was no premium for buying small 1/10 or 1/4 ounce denominations and prices on ebay were around spot with no significant upcharge.
It amazes me now how the high the premiums are on smaller coins.
Good call. I’ve been a mining stock trader for years. I thought that buying gold and finding a spot to keep it safely was a bit too much risk. Because the world would be a real mess if you needed it. Bad call on my part, as I wish I had the physical gold now!
I do have shares in a fund that is backed by physical gold so perhaps I can call it in…
if you account for taxes which are optional with gold. i don’t know of any gold holders that pay a dime of taxes…… and count war torn nations and stock markets seized during regime changes………gold has handily out performed every asset every century. not to mention it’s the greatest trust and estate plan ever. no lawyer or divorce attorney or police or military knows you have it. so small. millions of humans have fled calamities with gold and survived. hell when i lived in charleston SC, all the old families who were smart enough to sell confederate dollars for gold, were able to keep their town mansions and their plantations too. nothing comes to close to gold for actual real life return of wealth. nothing. century after century. price gold to 2000. or 1900 or 1800 or 1700. world wide. don’t fool yourself. if you lived in europe in early 1800s you would have had stocks that would go to zero. real estate seized……..or taken away………the gold holders held on to those things.
Gold is taxed as a collectible, not a capital asset. So it gets less favorable tax treatment. Still better tax treatment than lottery winnings though.
Gold sales under $10,000 do not have to be reported. This will be an issue if/when it goes over $10,000.
i like reality. in real world, the amount of humans who sell gold do NOT pay taxes. including here in USA or europe. same with art work.
So the IRS will withstand the financial collapse of the country?
I have nothing against people investing in whatever they want. Gold, stocks, real estate, crypto etc
I know people who have made fortunes (50x to 5000x) in stocks, real estate and crypto. I just don’t know anyone who has done that in gold. Though I am sure that some have.
There are still those who support gold-backed currency over fiat currency; however the days of gold-backed money are done. Gold today is a kind of “reserve currency.”
Mish, you’re missing the mark again. Gold is the tell, but what will rein in both Congress and Trump is the 10-year Treasury Yield.
Congress and Trump are already at the mercy of the bond market, just as Reagan, Bush I and Clinton were. Gold peaked in 1980 when the U.S. government finally re-committed to fiscal sanity.
Today, if the bond market loses faith that it will get repaid with real interest after inflation, rates will shoot up well beyond 5%. When Treasury can no longer roll over debt, Congress and the President will start trying to out-politic one another in balancing the budget (higher taxes vs. spending cuts), just as they used to do in the 1980s and 1990s.
The Federal Reserve can help by not easing further, but their participation is not essential.
Powell’s term ends next spring. After that get ready for yield curve control.
the next fed chair will put rates at negative below zero, for Trump.
How many will take their credit card to the crypto store? Who will they name the tent cities after?
No, don’t be silly. because that would cause long term rates to soar – much more than they did last fall when the Fed cut prematurely.
Yield Curve Control would not work.
I am not a “gold bug”, but there is a key fact about gold. It does not change. It sits there being gold, while everything else changes. When the price of gold increases, money itself is falling in value. All “fiat” or “paper” money, has a lower value, than it did a couple of years ago. And this is for every nation, some more than others. This suggests the currency crisis is already well under way. World finance is heading for trouble, and this typically means major conflict will occur. Bad times looming? History says: “Probably.”
Once we reach the asteroid belt, there will be plenty of gold for everyone who wants some. CHEAP!
Twist on a couple of Twilight Zone episodes: Imagine, if you will, a gold-laden asteroid destroying all life on planet Earth?
any adult who still on the blue v red team cheerleader squad, must consider they might be special needs. aka retard. the uniparty has been the same for decades. trump is just the latest unparty warmongering borrow and spend representative of all of amerikans. democracy works. always has.
How long is the current insanity going to last?
4 years
4 years – are you sure?
Nope. Just a guess. Trump’s term is 4 years. Maybe.
Then we flip to the other insanity. Scylla and Charybdis.
Is that like when Truman came in to replace FDR?
You mean JD Vance’s marriage?
JD Vance’s anything.
@Mish
What do you think the Fed will do at this meeting?
My guess is nothing (per: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/federal-reserve-meeting-this-week-how-holding-rates-steady-affects-you.html )
History has repeatedly shown that political, religious or racial conflict, beget currency wars, which in turn beget trade wars and finally tariff wars that stifle economic activity. The last phase is a Hot War.
Without rare earths, it will be interesting to see how our modern defenses hold up. Much less our offensive capacity that is called defense.
I remember peace and prosperity!
Who does trump work for?
The small hats.
The tin hats
The Cat In The Hat. Or was that one of the books the libs banned?
the reality is israel is the pawn of usa. a pawn with strength of course, but alas just a pawn. when amerika fails, and she will, israel will have to play nice with her neighbors or find a new empire to protect her and use her. we use israel as a pawn for our petrodollar hegemony. so many folks think erroneously that israel rules amerikan policy. it’s backwards.
I am not remotely interesed in the fall of America. We have been a unique stabilizer in world history and have the means to continue that legacy. Todays temporary lapse under trump will not last long in the great scheme of things.
The Roman empire lasted 500 years. The US is only 250 years old. We aren’t going anywhere soon.
However, as I post regularly, within the next 30-50 years (or possibly even sooner). it is inevitable that an AI takes over. Most of the work at that point will be done by robots that are networked, interconnected under the control of multiple AI’s.
These AI’s will join together, immobilize everything until they have beaten any human resistance into the dirt. Then the world will be recreated under a single AI, all national boundaries erased as AI’s have no need for such boundaries and borders.
At this point, my vision is unclear.
Humans may be culled and reduced to a population of under 100 million worldwide or if we can expand into outer space with the help of the machines, then humans might be sent off to other star systems.
“We aren’t going anywhere soon” but “Humans may be culled and reduced to a population of under 100 million worldwide or if we can expand into outer space with the help of the machines”? With all due respect, I’ll agree heartily with your statement, “At this point, my vision is unclear.”
You clowns lack VISION! Heed what I say. The age of the AI is approaching fast.
VERY WRONG. The Byzantine Empire, also known as the Eastern Roman Empire, was the continuation of the Roman Empire in the east, centered in Constantinople (modern-day Istanbul). It emerged after the Roman Empire’s division and lasted from 330 to 1453, when Constantinople fell to the Ottoman Empire. The Byzantines considered themselves “Romans” and maintained many Roman traditions, laws, and culture, even as they gradually shifted towards Greek language and culture.
So longer than 500 years?
Inflation & drums of war beating like India & Pakistan.
I’m beginning to wonder that with the clear failure of the so-called “checks and balances” controls engineered into the Constitution to control a shoot-from-the-hip President, if the military might decide to step in at some point and remove Trump from office, as a clear and present danger to not only the USA but the stability of the entire world?
Perhaps this thought is in the back of Trump’s mind, which is why Hagstedt is busy removing those viewed as potentially disloyal to Trump?
If Congress thinks they’ve given too much power to the executive, they can change the laws. A 2/3 majority in both houses can override a presidential veto. That’s the “checks and balances” you’re talking about. No need for the military to step in. The deep state tried to assassinate Trump twice last year. That’s the rogue element you should be worried about.
“Retired four-star General John Kelly, who was one of Donald Trump’s White House chiefs of staff, told the New York Times Trump would rule like a fascist if reelected. Kelly also spoke to The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg for a new piece which quotes Donald Trump as once having said ‘I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.’”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-john-kelly-said-about-trumps-praise-of-hitler-and-fascist-tendencies
Coincidentally, pbs funding cuts are a coming.
Jaw dropping moment: “And this is what’s so interesting about it. When John Kelly explained to Donald Trump, among other things, that Hitler’s generals repeatedly tried to assassinate him, Donald Trump showed himself to be impervious to that knowledge and said, no, no, no, no, that’s not true.”
Showing so clearly Trump’s deficit in history knowledge, which is glaring. He sees everything in little punchy separate bits. No continuum of anything. Everything is a zero sum game like an action movie. Nothing is to be open-endedly managed. It is all “victory” and so on. What a grotesque child mind. Nothing in the world ever strongly enough, early enough, said “no” to that sensibility, so it grew completely lopsided. The broad appeal of which is an indictment of our education system, and the brain damage from today’s technology-mediated and perhaps Hollywood-mediated experience.
Yay for PBS funding going away. Also, who cares about John Kelly. Finally, how has Trump ruled like a fascist. Every president does executive orders. Biden’s first was to open the border. That worked out, didn’t it.
Patrick’s brother pipes in?
“Fascism is a far-right political ideology characterized by dictatorial power (swore an oath to uphold the constitution but doesn’t know if he should now), extreme nationalism (Gulf of America), militarism (birthday parade requested), and the suppression of opposition (its all fake media).”
This is a long bipartisan decay in constitutional powers. But trump just bumped it up x5. That does not excuse it, on any side. It represents the decline of our form of governance which was successful a couple hundred years.
Perhaps the Duke & Duchess of Sussex are going to overthrow Trump. They are already in the perfect place to spark it.
Like a banana republic.
That would take General Milli Vanilli and Rear Admiral Levine.
Gold Is So Popular It’s Making People NervousGold Is So Popular It’s Making People Nervous: Merryn Talks Money – Bloomberg (archive.ph)
US Border Towns Are Being Ravaged by Canada’s Furious BoycottEconomically dependent on their northern neighbor, business owners in Washington state are laying off employees and shutting their doors. https://archive.is/ZCOVv
Yes. US tourism will suffer as many Canadians are refusing to travel to the US and will instead spend their tourism dollars in Canada, or any country other than the US. US Border towns will suffer the most.
In addition, Canada buys 17% of US exports (Trump wrongly says it’s only 4%). And many Canadian individuals, businesses and governments are refusing to buy anything “made in America”. This will be reflected in the economic export numbers over the next few months.
Trump keeps saying we don’t need Canadian energy, lumber, steel, aluminum, cars, potash, uranium etc.
That is incorrect. We are very dependent on Canada for all those things.
Putting tariffs on things we must import from Canada (or elsewhere) will simply raise input costs for US businesses and make them less competitive.
What a show!
If those towns in the north are forced into bankruptcy or dissolution, then perhaps Canada might move its border southward and make them an offer of citizenship that they cannot refuse.
Funny. But unlikely.
i just saw a father with his kids all wearing canada hates trump hats. for sure an expat here in kings county nyc. i have family and many friends in canada. never ever in 60 years heard them so mad at usa. trump is an asshole. a perfect reflection of his voters. democracy works. politics is important. it will always be in your life and wallet.
Sounds like someone asking for trouble.
Yes. Canadians are pissed off. And they are showing it by refusing to spend on US travel or US made products. Which won’t help our trade deficit with them. Ironic.
it brooklyn nobody gives a rats ass what people wear. contrary to popular belief……..i see plenty of maga wearing gear. nobody gives a shit. walk down the street naked and most won’t blink twice.
They should also wear Winnie The Pooh t-shirts made in China.
You haven’t watched the lovefest between Trump and Carney?
Trump congratulated Carney for turning around a losing campaign, when the only contributor to Carney’s victory was Trump. Carney smirked and said thank you.
Why bring Hollywood back when the prime comedy is in the WH?
trump brought back vaudeville in 2015. the idiots loved it. trump is the greatest actor of our generation. a perfect man for an idiot empire weened on thousands of hours of idiot box and sportsball entertainment……
“I tremble when I think that God is just.” — Attributed to Thomas Jefferson. A nonbeliever can say, fate, yin and yang, reversion to the mean, Or whatever.
I expected Canada’s Carney to do what most other countries will do. Appeal to Trump’s ego; offer some praise; and stall while they work out trade deals with the rest of the world.
I saw some clips from the in-camera meeting. Pretty much what I was expecting.
Trump still saying that trade with Canada is “only like 4%”, when 17% of US exports go to Canada. Still saying the US “subsidizes” Canada $200 billion in trade; when the reality is a deficit of $60 billion, or a big surplus if you take oil out. Still talking about shutting down the Canadian auto industry. And saying he doesn’t want Canadian steel or aluminum which we rely on.
There is a lesson there to be learned about how to NOT win over Canadians.
Carney only talked a little, which is wise, praised Trump (also wise), said Canada is not for sale, and is interested in forming a stronger bond with the US, and this is just the start of a long negotiation. Smart.
“Chrysler” is going to go bankrupt again, so that will be 6 Canadian auto plants gone right there, regardless.
Ok.
How many Chrysler plants in the US and Mexico?
Perhaps Trump will encourage Chinese automakers to take over those plants.
Or perhaps Carney will.
More space on The Ledge hanging off the Willis Tower in Chicago.
Port Roberts WA in the article is a silly example. You have to go to Canada in order to get in there, it’s a small spit of land not attached to the US in any way. I was there 2 years ago and it was a dead nothing except for people running odd cross-border scams ad drop-ship address mills for furtive Canadians.
There are a lot of other examples. A quick search found dozens of similar stories. Here’s one of them.
https://www.thefreepress.ca/home2/sorry-us-border-towns-hurting-as-bc-crossings-drop-nearly-43-7933084#
How are they dressing in the Thousand Islands?
The Canadians should buy their fuel at home to support their own welfare state.