BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts.
Private vs Government Employment Notes
- Data is from the Household Survey as is the Unemployment Rate
- The BLS says wage and salary government employment rose by 785,000
- The BLS says wage and salary private employment rose by 133,000 and the nonagricultural wage and salary employment rose by 822,000
The numbers don’t total correctly.
The BLS explains: “Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.“
A hat tip to ZeroHedge for pointing out the surge in government employment.
You can also see the recent surge in BLS Table A-8.
From January 1948 though December 1997, the numbers did total correctly. They haven’t ever since.
The same thing applies to agricultural vs nonagricultural breakdowns.
Change in Employment Level Agricultural and Nonagricultural
In September, the change in agricultural employment was -60,000 vs a rise of 527,000 nonagricultural employment. That nets to 467,000. The BLS reports 430,000.
Change in Government Employment Since 1948
Unemployment Rate Math
Because of the way the BLS makes its calculations, one cannot directly calculate (at least properly) the precise impact those government jobs had on the unemployment rate (UR).
However, we can show various unemployment rates based on employment level (EL) and Labor Force (LF) numbers.
The reported employment level in September was 161,864,000. That is up from 161,434,000 an increase of 430,000. The labor force is 168,699,000.
UR = ((LF – EL) / LF) * 100
UR = ((168,699-161,864)/168,699) * 100 = 4.051 which the BLS rounded to 4.1 percent.
If you keep the Labor Force constant you can calculate various Unemployment Rates by changing the Employment Level.
For example, if we assume the employment level was flat not +430,000 we can arrive at the following:
UR = ((168,699-161,434)/168,699) * 100 = 4.306 which the BLS would have rounded to 4.3 percent.
And if you believe this is all bogus nonsense gone haywire, then keep the Labor Force at 168,699,000 and plug in your own employment level based off the lead chart.
Establishment Survey Numbers
The Establishment Survey suggests we added 31,000 government jobs not 785,000 jobs. This is one area the BLS is likely sampling correctly.
A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
On August 22, I gave A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
Yesterday morning, I had difficulty finding the BLS job revisions. So did everyone else. Eventually the BLS posted -818,000 but my unadjusted calc of -915,000 is accurate too.
That 818,000 revision was to the Establishment Survey. The BLS birth-death model and/or small business sampling has gone haywire.
But if there is one thing the BLS is sampling correctly, that would be government jobs.
The BLS Reports Jobs Rebounded More Than Expected in September
On October 4, I noted The BLS Reports Jobs Rebounded More Than Expected in September
The BLS reports payroll employment rises by 254,000 in September. I discussed two reasons the report is suspect.
This report provides a third source of likely error.
Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Five Months
Also see my ADP report Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Five Months
ADP data shows small businesses with 1-49 workers have been reducing workers for five months.
I am confident something (many things?) went totally nuts in BLS sampling or assumptions, and the economy did not suddenly add 785,000 government workers in September.
However, BLS math is such that one cannot (should not) extrapolate total job losses starting from that 785,000.
The September report was garbage. They all have been garbage lately, but this one wins the blue ribbon for worst yet.
Not to worry, these #s will square right after the election, I’m sure.
Trump will walk into office and wonder where all the jobs and growth went, and Dems will en masse point to how horribly he’s running the country, and how 4 years ago he set himself up for failure.
Oh yeah, and illegal immigration is all his fault too.
USFedGuv doesn’t have the basic competency to hire @ such levels, much less the capacity to manage or train new hires of any quantity.
At what point will media & analysts stop using & amplifying FedGuv reports & statistics? How much septic garbage has to be digested before goats finally step away from the sewage? will they eat themselves to death out of instinct & laziness?
The world-beating rally in Chinese stocks is failing to convince many global fund managers and strategists.
Invesco Ltd., JPMorgan Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those viewing the recent rebound with skepticism and waiting for Beijing to back up its stimulus pledges with real money. Some are also concerned many stocks are already reaching overvalued levels.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/china-stock-skepticism-gets-louder-amid-world-beating-run/ar-AA1rOaVt
China’s Cocaine Rally … needs another big fat line!!!
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunges 9.5%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunges 9.5% as investors dump shares after recent sharp gains (yahoo.com)
Now what?
Try 50 trillion in stimulus… nah … 100 trillion … lend everyone in china a billion yuan and force them to buy stocks…
Oh I know … more ghost cities… nah… that can’t work… been there done that … property market is in ruins… nobody will buy jack shit after being burned …
Hahahaha… this is beyond f789ed…
BE-YOND
And here we have an update on the soon to collapse New Zealand economy :
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/this-is-what-peak-cheap-energy-looks
Hahaha… is anyone surprised?
China rally loses steam as authorities disappoint markets; Hong Kong stocks plunge more than 6% Asia markets live: Japan pay data, China markets (cnbc.com)
MORE COW BELL!!! MORE F789ING COW BELL!!!
ringy dingy kaboom!!!
The Federal budget increased by nearly 50% (from $4.4T to $6.4T) in 2020 due to Covid. When Biden came in, the Federal budget has consistently been above $6T. This explains a lot and shows the complete irresponsibility of the US government.
Follow the money…. What sectors have profited the most?
Finance!!!
Eight out of ten of the biggest corporate contributors were from the financial sector.
https://howmuch.net/articles/the-30-biggest-political-donors-on-the-fortune-500
End privatized public elections and excessive lobbying then you might get better governance.
We deal in paper, friend.
Speaking of the Federal Budget and Democratic money games, the part of our National Debt known as the Intragovernmental Holdings, shows that the IH went up $200 Billion on October first. I’d like to know who got $200 Billion? Was it stolden by Biden/Harris? And why push it into FY 2025?
10/1/2024
Debt by the Piblic Intragov. Holdings Totals
$28,312,629,054,720 $7,356,318,312,461 $35,668,947,367,182
9/30/2024
$28,307,312,290,783 – $7,157,361,638,388 $35,464,673,929,171
= +199 Billion + 204 Billion in one day.
Who got the money?
Quote Danielle DiMartino Booth : The BLS is made up of Obama appointees. The figures are whatever is required. In her opinion the U.S. has been in technical recession for 20 months.
The government is getting ready for the new Federal Department of Insurance, Social Security expansion, Medicare for All expansion, Medicaid expansion. Public Pension recapitalization to boot.
When the Democrats clean sweep in November, fully expect annual $5 trillion deficits. That will be just the smitten of the deficits to come.
No way out.
Believe it or not, when you include all of Kamala’s paid protestors, people resettling migrants, influencers, ballot harvesters and mules, election workers, and door knockers you add about 750,000 government workers.
When you add in all the extra people that FEMA hired to take care of hurricane victims you are still at 750,000.
Speaking of garbage BLS reports, they will be releasing the latest CPI figures on Thursday. The 2025 Social Security COLA will finally be revealed at that time.
Optimists are predicting a ‘huge’ COLA of 2.3% but some are predicting 2.1%.
Every penny of which will have to be barrowed by the US Gonvernment so they can pay it back to the SS Trustfund, so the Trustfund has enough $ to pay this months benfits.
Excellent observation, Mish.
Thx much for the article.
BLS = Bureau of Lying Statistics.
The 90% confidence interval for the topline in the monthly data delta household data is +-600000. You have to expect this data to bounce around like a crazy ball. If it didn’t then something would be suspect.
The data is constantly wrong/revised such that it is suspect or useless. Reduce the deficit somewhat and eliminate the BLS. Saw in a recent WSJ article that they feel they are underfunded.
Is this number produced by the same bureau that reports inflation?
Feeding at the public trough complete w/ great benefits n retirement pensions vs what’s left of private sector jobs which for the most part are crap [ever try firing a gov’t employee?]…just like politicians who never held a real job in their adult life [think Pelosi, Schumer, Slick Willie, Biden, etc.
wouldn’t the discrepancy likely be that some of the surveyed jobs are unknown whether they are agricultural or government so the yes no won’t necessarily add to 100%?
See, the Government can save us all! Errrrr …. Maybe they put the UKR Army on the payroll.
USA can “employ & pay ” millions to produce nothing, there is plenty of currency to do so. Hence i think this story points to more price inflation, meaning over time, we continue to get Less for More.
Ah, must be the 700000 illegal aliens issued MMT cards for their border crossing trek in Sept..
Civil servants typically get paid more than their private sector equivalent, for doing less work, when in reality they should be taking a pay cut for the job security their position offers them. It is very hard to fire a civil servant. He has to be caught red-handed doing something wrong. This stability-of-life is worth something, financially speaking. Yet the government wages keep going up because the politicians are afraid to stand up to the government unions. Easier to cave and give a raise than to put a halt to it.
— Greg (my blog: dark.sport.blog)
The US hasn’t had “civil servants” since JFK unionized Federal ‘Workers.’ // Executive Order 10988 is a United States presidential executive order issued by President John F. Kennedy on January 17, 1962 that granted federal employees the right to collective bargaining. This executive order was a breakthrough for public sector workers, who were not protected under the 1935 Wagner Act. (wikipedia.com) ☮️✝️
As of Sept 2023 there were 2.95 million federal employees. I assume ‘government’ hiring includes all levels. But the number of 785k seems impossible. Logistically it doesn’t even make sense.
DebtClock has government employment at 23,851,074, so the increase would be possible although likely inflated.
A BLUE RIBBON for senselessness.
WOW, they are now in our FACE with Bullshit Numbers. BLATANTLY.
Time to fight back
Just a coincidence that the worst garbage yet comes out just before election.
They have weapons zed everything.
We are living “1984”
I agree the numbers are a bit screwy, always have been which is why I focus on the social security snapshot and review it every month because that agency tends to control the spend numbers tightly, they are based on traceable social security numbers and require funding from the treasury.
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/
We know that on average 5000 “seniors” die each day. We know that an estimated 10k “seniors” retire each day, those numbers match my tracking of the SS snapshot.
An even better number would be medicare enrollments since those all take place at 65 but those numbers and the related spend are impossible to find in any one place.
We also know that there aren’t enough “young” people in the pipeline so the labor force should be dropping every quarter over time. It’s not really any surprise that there are sudden surges in employment as people die off or retire. I expect this trend to continue into 2030 which will mask other issues such as a depleted labor force but that’s a comment for another day.
Of course, immigration numbers throw everything off too but we all know that’s where the real labor supply has been coming from the past decade except it’s all kept under the table.
Not everyone signs up for Medicare at age 65.
If your employer has 50+ employees, you can stay on your employer’s medical ins., until you retire.
And how many of those employees stay on?