The CPI was a mix of good and bad in September. The good outweighs the bad especially for renters. But what’s ahead?
The BLS reports the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in September
CPI Month-Over-Month Details
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September. But rent of primary residence rose 0.3 percent and owners’ equivalent rent was up 0.3 percent.
- The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did the preceding month.
- Indexes which increased in September include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel, and airline fares. The indexes for recreation and communication were among those that decreased over the month.
- The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month. Gasoline was down 4.1 percent.
- Medical care commodities fell 0.7 percent and medical care services rose 0.7 percent. This is another bit of bad news.
CPI Month-Over-Month Rent and OER
I believe these trends will continue as the supply of finished apartments rapidly increases.
Since shelter is 36.5 percent of the CPI, the good news overshadows the bad, for the month.
CPI Year-Over-Year
Year-Over-Year Details
- CPI: 2.4 Percent, Down from 2.5 Percent
- OER: 5.2 Percent, Down from 5.4 Percent
- Rent: 4.8 Percent, Down from 5.0 Percent
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): 3.3 Percent, Up from 3.2 Percent
- Food and Beverage: 2.2 Percent, Up from 2.0 Percent
Energy was down 6.8 percent from a year ago. I don’t chart energy because it is so volatile that it blows the scale on every chart.
Looking Ahead
I expect further improvement in shelter, due to falling rent and OER. That is very good news given their weight in the CPI. Short term, the good new might end there.
The price of crude has spiked so energy costs will rise.
Medical care services is another hot spot that is bad news. Unfortunately, I expect the bad news will continue.
The hurricanes will drive up the cost of home repairs and materials, perhaps substantially.
Insurance costs will rise everywhere as insurers will look to spread out the damages.
I will discuss food and medical in separate reports later today.
Bogus Jobs Report
The latest jobs report is a certified mess. For discussion please see Government Employment Rose by an Amazing 785,000 in September
BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts.
Best Wishes
Best wishes to everyone impacted by the Florida hurricanes. Damages will be huge. Anyone without both flood and wind policies will take huge hits.
Oil could be a buy the dip if it breaks the recent high. Oil lags gold 20 months, grains 15.
Inflation is still above 2% on a M/OM basis if multiplied by the number of months. Y/O/Y is above 2%. The political elites earn an F.
The FED, Trump, Biden and Congress are to blame mostly.
But let’s not forget corporate profits that exceeded inflation by 14.36% from Q3 2019 – Q3 2021 also contributed to inflationary pressure rising.
Month over month CPI has been below 2% (annualized) for the last 6 months. You can see the data for yourself here: https://www.bls.gov/regions/northeast/data/consumerpriceindex_us_table.htm
First, the metric NSA is not what I was talking about.
Second, the BLS inflation data is understated whether using NSA or SA. This is almost agreed to by anyone who has witnessed how the BLS has changed how they gauge inflation since the 80s. It started with Reagan, Bush then in the 90s with Newt and Clinton and continues through every administration and congress since. It is called neoliberal economics.
The purpose for the change by the BLS and if you connect the dots from Reagan to Biden is penalize (screw over ), retirees and taxpayers since inflation hurts those on fixed income by losing purchasing power and the taxpayer by having to pay more in FICA (if working and the employer) and income tax than they would’ve had inflation not gone up.
All totally irrelevant.
What’s important is that flat screen TVs are cheaper and bigger than ever.
And smartphones with gigabytes and gigabytes are almost free.
Aren’t hedonic adjustments wonderful?
If inflation had really been defeated, the 10 Year wouldn’t have risen almost 1/2% from mid-September ( 4.11% today).
Since the cut the 10 year is up .5….OOPS
So who gets credit for inflation coming down? Is that Biden or Harris? Or maybe that crack congress? Jerome Powell? Inquiring minds want to know….only 25 days till election.
“So who gets credit for inflation coming down?”
Timothy Leary, David Copperfield and/or David Koresh.
No no MPO(Monkeypox)— you told me this election was over a month ago. Stick to your guns. You said Trump had no chance.
Trump has no chance, he is going to lose. Sad that you’re delusional about his chances.
Thank you Clarice.
Just watch the women (of reproductive age) vote. That’s what will nail the coffin for Trump. Guaranteed.
Good Lord, how many abortions do they need? It’s not like we’re in danger of running out. In MN you can get an abortion until the kid graduates from high school.
It’s about health care not abortions, that’s what so many cult idiots don’t understand.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/investigation-links-georgias-abortion-ban-to-preventable-deaths-of-2-women
You should pay attention to what’s going on in Georgia and right before the election no less.
LOL. Link to PBS. Why not Buzzfeed and MotherJones
Why don’t you give us a list of news sources you read. Or will you be like Sarah Palin and not be able to list any publications.
I read Mish. And non fiction.
I figured Sarah.
Shhhh, I need to watch Harris on the View.
I don’t know that it’s in the bag, but I fear you’re correct…overturning RvW is huge to women (of all ages).
Have you attended a HS graduation lately? The last one I attended had 23 female and 1 male valedictorians.
Additionally, women 19-29 are on the hook for 66% of the student loan debt.
Will a super-majority be enough for the women to renege on the responsibilities they willingly took on?
Another devastating report for the those in the White House. More than 22% inflation in less than one term in office. Thankfully, our long national nightmare is nearing an end.
The System is going to ensure Trump loses.
Our nation will be incredibly lucky if Trump, Vance & their supporters are able to overcome all of the illegal swaying and cheating of votes the Dems have been doing now for 8 years.
For an enlightening missive on Trump’s and Biden’s economic performances, the below link should cause at least some pause for blaming Biden for inflation entirely.
The author is David Stockman.
https://davidstockman.substack.com/p/battle-of-the-liars-trump-versus
I appreciate your contribution. Have you had the opportunity to listen to this JP / RFK interview?
The Great Partisan Shift | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | EP 484 (youtube.com)
I was an early follower and admirer of RFK Jr. and still am. With the exception of his stance and support of Israel, it is difficult to disagree with him on his other positions. I am agnostic on his anti nuclear policy at this time.
His recollection of his grandfather’s relationship with FDR is clouded but also understandable given that Joe Sr.’s sons were all liberal as opposed to their dad.
The Kennedy cousins except for RFK Jr. are nothing like their aunts, uncles and parents, unfortunately.
I haven’t watched the entire interview but will.
Thx much for providing.
CPI may be stabilizing but everyone knows inflation is higher than the proaganda numbers from the politburo. I think inflation is going to reaccelerate leaving the monetary wizards in a jam. Of course they will acquiesce to their money masters, the govt and wall street who needs more cowbell. How can inflation decelerate with the massive money printing going on. The deficit is out of control and no party even acknowledges it. WTF. In the end they will resort to interest rate suppression to finace the deficit. None of these traitors will address the problem until the shtf.
I see one more dip in the till. They don’t care if they lose, as it will be spent and the R’s problem. If they win, then they will “Tax The Rich” which they have been screaming about doing for awhile now.
Maybe setting the stage for the rise in taxes on the wealthy, just in case they win?
They gave the old farts bank accounts some real yield for almost a year.
Now that that feeling is moving by inertia alone, and the election almost here, no need to continue supplying retirees with “excessive” income.
They will spend it, and therefore help the economy, so there’s that…
Unfortunately it appears, that energy is going right back up to whence it came… if we stopped given it away, we would probably be OK. So onto Phase 1.436, I think it is, to get energy back to being affordable again.
P.S. Don’t forget to fill the SPR, before we actually need it and it’s not there… sort of like the current FEMA situation. Oh wait, you are responsible for that too,
Man your neck deep in BS Old Man! Take.a nap why don… never mind I was thinking you were an “Active” President. I will buzz Kamala, and see if she has time. I know she had some. Fund Raising to do, so we shall see…
The big news is the social security COLA is 2.5%, down from 3.2% last year.
I pay no mind to the so-called seasonally adjusted CPI. The year over year trend on the unadjusted CPI-W is down. The last 3 months YoY inflation: 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.2%.
The latest month to month readings are: 308.640 to 309.046, giving an annualized rate of only 1.6%; much lower than the 2.4% being reported by the MSM.
They won’t announce the Medicare Part B premiums until Oct. 15th but they are expected to go from $174.70 to $185.
I also read federal employee health insurance premiums are expected to increase 13.5% next year.
So about 25% of the average retiree’s SS check will be gobbled up by Medicare and that’s before the increases coming for Part D.
Not to worry.
They’ll still have to pay more income tax on the new higher gross income.
Sorry, it was meant to be zany ironic satire.
And it won’t be too much longer before the entire COLA is sucked away to pay for annual Medicare cost increases.