The welfare state is booming along with social assistance for illegal immigrants. 
Welfare State Surge 2022 vs. 2023
- Government: 5.74% 2022 vs 24.92% 2023
- Social Assistance: 16.31% 2022 vs 34.11% 2023
- Government + Social Assistance: 22.04% 2022 vs 59.02% in 2023
Government employment and Social Assistance at the state level is surging. Much of it can be attributed to the surge in illegal immigration.
A portion of healthcare jobs, perhaps a large portion, is demographics. Boomers are getting older. Medicare needs and assistance needs are rising for this reason as well.
Change in Government and Social Assistance Jobs
Government + Social Assistance and Health Is Over 100% of Job Creation in 3 States
December state level numbers are not available in the current jobs report, but through November, Government + Social Assistance and Health Is Over 100% of Job Creation in 3 States
Does anyone think this is sustainable? If so, for how long?
Jobs Up 216,000 But Employment Down 683,000
For discussion of the December jobs report please see Jobs Up 216,000 But Employment Down 683,000 Job Revisions -71,000
The decline in full time employment in December was over 1.5 million.
Debt Jumps Past $34 Trillion, $1 Trillion Interest, Another Budget Showdown Looms
Finally, please note Debt Jumps Past $34 Trillion, $1 Trillion Interest, Another Budget Showdown Looms
Lost in the wake of debt topping $34 trillion is another budget showdown. Will this showdown be like all the other Republican capitulations? And what about the chants of hyperinflation?
For discussion of the debt ceiling and what I expect will happen, please click on the preceding link.
The government is becoming a socialist state with a budget crisis in the making.A total money collapse with CBDC rushing into refill the vacuum with carbon credits control with A.I. regulation underThe Fake Auspices of free elections in November.
Hiring back all of the nurses they fired from the empty hospitals during the Scamdemic to now care for millions of illegals getting free health care will show a strong hiring trend in the health care sector too.
… but if you point out (((who))) is behind every bit of it, now you’re the bad guy.
The only thing Conservatives will fight to conserve is Israel.
Many older experienced government employees have retired since the pandemic. They didn’t want to train the new crop of workers. They report new hires were lazy, did not want to work, and know-it-alls. Many government agencies still work from home. So government has to hire more employees to compensate for the inefficiencies of their newest hires.
Hello Mish,
I’ve been reading you for many, many years and have never found a need to have to correct you until this article. Perhaps I may be wrong, but I’m pretty sure that I am on the correct side of this mistake of yours.
Unfortunately, 60% of all jobs in 2023 weren’t government and soical assistance jobs, but rather government, social assistance and healthcare.
As you stated, the BLS does lump healthcare and social assistance jobs together, but you are incorrect that they do not break those jobs down between the two.
Given that we’re talking about jobs and not people employed, we need to be looking at the establishment survey data and not the household survey data which reports on people employed and the E/S reports on total jobs, double counting multiple job holders of course.
Anyhow, all of the numbers I reference are taken from Table B-1 of the E/S, particularly the nonseasonally adjusted numbers.
According to this table, there were 158.228 million jobs in December 2023 and 155.344 million jobs in December 2022 for a total gain of 2,884,000 jobs created YoY.
Scrolling down the list we do see the main category of ‘private education and health services’ which of course includes the sub-category of ‘healthcare and soical services’.
Looking at these 12/2022 to 12/2023 numbers, we see 21,039.2M jobs increase to 21,972.6M jobs for a total gain of 933,400 jobs for the year.
This is where you’re incorrect.
Looking further through these jobs and one will see the YoY increase above as follows….
Healthcare, 16,660.1M jobs increased to 17,323.0M jobs for an increase of 662,900 healthcare jobs YoY.
Social Assistance, 4,379.1M jobs increased to 4,649.6M jobs for an increase of 270,500 social assistance jobs YoY.
If you add the 12/2022, 12/2023 and annual job gains together for both healthcare and social assistance, they equal the same job figures provided for both healthcare and social assistance combined.
You first chart states that the BLS does not break these numbers down, but that is obviously incorrect, as is 60% of the 2023 jobs going to social assistance and government.
According to table A-1, there were 2,884,000 jobs created in 2023 and 700,000 were government jobs and 270,500 were social assistance jobs.
That works out to 33.65% of all jobs.
With that said, healthcare jobs largely arent’t considered to be high paying jobs. For that matter, neither or retail trade jobs or leisure and hospitality jobs.
Those three industries accounted for another 662.9K, 603K and 111K jobs in 2023 for another 1,376,900 of the jobs created in 2023.
if one were to add up all of the jobs created in 2023 among healthcare, social services, government, retail trade and leisure and hospitality, they’d see a grand total of 2,347,400 jobs created in those four industry and government jobs that are paid for through taxation of the private sector.
In other words, out of 2,884,000 jobs created in 2023, supposedly of course because they will revised lower in the future, 81.4% went to low paying jobs or government jobs paid for through taxation.
Sorry for the long comment!
Keep up the great work Mish!
When we add Leisure&hospitality to Government and Health care we get pretty close to 90%. Does it mean that the remaining industries (with exception of Construction) are increasing their productivity so much that they do not hire people? Or is there lack of demand for their products aka is recession slowly coming? Or some industries can’t hire because they need qualified labor and illegals are unqualified?
Lol Im supervisor in mfg it is NOT productivity I can assure you of that right now. Attitudes seem to be even worse now. Tends to happen when things cost 10x as much.
Mish, I would be interested in learning more about how illegal immigrants managed to create +0.9 million jobs in the health care and social assistance sector in 2023. I can of course see a few possibilities: the illegals moved right away from the border into residential care facilities (+0.2 million); the illegals registered as children to receive free private sector child care (+0.1); the illegals are so old that they buy a massive amount of private home health services (+0.1); and the illegals somehow boosted demand for physician office workers. But, clearly, this can’t be the whole story.
I hear immigrants can levitate and read minds too! Why are we letting them in our country?
Levitating and reading minds might be useful skills once Trump takes over.
link to mishtalk.com
More numbers in a few weeks
Off topic: Surely you are aware that Trump is rumored to have had a slight stroke and is on Coumadin and his marriage is rumored to be a total sham. The news media wouldn’t dare report on this. My father was on Coumadin and he bruised very easily as I noticed a big bruise on Trump’s hand the other day.
If Biden had a slight stroke, the media would keep on screaming about it until they forced him out don’t you think?
Yes, the evil Republican-run not Jewish media who totally protects Trump while attacking Biden.
Every word out of you twisted Hebrew liar’s freshly snipped babyprick sucking faceholes is a complete inversion of reality.
I think you miss the point I’m trying to make here. The Democrats and the media want to make certain that Trump is the Republican nominee, much as they hate him they know he’s beatable, so they certainly wouldn’t report on any kind of health issue or anything else that would hurt him. Also if given the chance, I think they would force Biden out for someone like Gavin Newsom.
Truthseeker is correct on this point. Democrats are doing everything they can to ensure Trump is the nominee.
Time for the Great Reset. But not the Klaus Schwab type. Rather, the old fashioned recession/depression type. Time for our leaders to get serious and to stop playing pretend. Are they capable of it? Probably not. Time for new leaders.
Be careful watcha wish for. Times of upheaval often result in some form of tyranny. The people often call upon a strong man to save them.
30% of us are already all-in for the cult leader. Stupid is epidemic.
Occasionally people notice too much and elect a painter.
For no reason at all…
Is there a definition of “social assistance” jobs? What are the typical job titles? Are these government (federal, state, or local) jobs or are they some type of non-profit organization job?
It’s probably the social case workers who go meet with dysfunctional people on the dole.
These are private sector jobs (4.6 million in December 2023). If you ever need child care, vocational rehabilitation services, or family services, you will need these services.
With the demographic shift, I’d expect the jobs report to be better.
What shift? Im 62 and put in 72 hours last week.
Do you all think that Budget “Showdowns” are smoke and mirrors efforts with the REAL work being obfuscations. Keeping efforts unclear, murky, unintelligible, and outright LYING is the remarkable work done by Congress – – which is to say that they are being Politicians by definition.
The USA is lost now to debt and it is a feeding frenzy battle to determine who gets the biggest pieces of that Bullshit pie.
Sustainable!!! Credit Creation Printer in the Eccles Building goes “Brrrrrrrrrrrrr” and there’s no lack of demand for dollars EVER. /HeavySarc
🤣😂🤣😂 U N S U S T A I N A B L E
Nice summary
NY state population : 20M. NYS healthcare and social assistance jobs added 121% of the total.
CA population : 40M. CA added 61% of the total. CA might have added the most. CA is out of control.
Our GDP rides on the silent generation, the boomers, new immigrants, shingle mums and 7 min with your doctors that cost between $300 and $600/ visit. ER cost more.
Dentists, forget about it. To cut costs eat real food, exercise and move. Intermittent fasting 6/18 or 8/16 can keep the doctors away.
By being retired on welfare I am providing at least 3.2 good paying jobs for the economy. I’m very important. They must take good care of me.
I guess there is just no way hyperinflation could occur. Not with the Uranium standard in place in the United States.
Jobs report so hypocritical
1,500,000 LOSS OF FULL TIME JOBS
2nd job holders hit record
Shouldn’t the title be “… 60% of all Job GROWTH in 2023”
Yes. Thanks – Corrected
Hey Mish…I remember when there was always talk of the economy needing to produce X number of jobs each month just to keep up with population growth…I never see that figure discussed these days…Any idea of what that number might be?
It’s a lot higher due to retiring boomers rather than population growth and it depends on the retirement rate. Lots of old boomers still working. I will think about that but lots of guessing.
By the way –
Hi Mish. You’re economist and have panoramic view. Can you lead us how to invest in coming AI boom?
It will be a lot beneficial to your reader like me.
Your regular supporter.
Same way as the crypto boom. Don’t.
Keynesian’s think it’s sustainable, unlimited debt is good. Yellen “We’re still in the aftermath of [COVID]” came right out and said government should spend big, rates are low. Then said oops. Sitting right next to potus commanding beyond her paygrade. Government spending does not stimulate the economy and crowds private investment. Credit creation for asset purchases and consumption is unsustainable and leads to inflation. Imagine my surprise trying to trade a stampede market. MPW is a healthcare REIT. They were down almost 30 percent today. They are having trouble collecting. If we could post images/charts I would share.
What are non government social assistance jobs? What percent of the social assistance+health care total is social assistance versus health care? What evidence is there that social assistance jobs are being driven by immigration? I see nothing but speculation really.
If you look closely at the BLS data breakdown, job creation in private health care and social assistance has almost certainly very little to do with illegal immigration.
You are either being sarcastic or you are just another apologist for this
If states were in charge of welfare programs, the size of neither the Federal government nor budget would be so bad. Bond markets would force states very quickly to be frugal. Welfare burden on taxpayers would be minimized.
Not in NY.
[lol] There was an editorial in our local free newspaper yesterday from someone in the “free housing for everyone who is homeless camp” who was opining the lack of Federal $$ in CA to direct to housing the homeless. She felt that states alone could not “solve” the homeless problem w/o help from the Federal government.