The great escape from Blue states to Red states continues in 2023.
California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are the five top states people are fleeing on an absolute basis according to a National Apartment List Report on migration.
Percentage Basis
On a percentage basis people are fleeing New York, California, Hawaii. Alaska, and Illinois, in that order.
Special Congrats to New York, California, and Illinois
Unsurprisingly, New York, California, and Illinois appear in both lists.
Where are People Headed?
On an absolute basis it’s Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
All but Texas are in the top 5 percentage gainers as well. South Carolina is the biggest winner on a percentage basis.
Escape From California and New York
Top Inbound Metro Areas
Apartment List reports “North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida account for 7 of the top 10 metros with the most interest coming from out-of-towners, confirming the popularity of these states among Americans looking to make long-distance moves. Another trend represented on this list is renters priced out of the nation’s most expensive markets searching in more affordable neighboring markets – for example, from San Francisco to Stockton, CA, and from New York City to Bridgeport, CT.”
Apartment List Notes
The analysis in this report is based on apartment searches rather than completed moves, based on the search preferences that users provide when they register for Apartment List.
In this report, we analyze only the net domestic migration estimates released by Census, as this is the component of population change that aligns most closely with the Apartment List data that we present in tandem.
Domestic migration is just one component of population change, which is also impacted by international migration and natural population change (births and deaths).
Thanks to Robert Warnock at Apartment List to reaching out with the data.
I repeat a continual theme of previous posts on migration. If you live in New York, California, or Illinois, get the hell out.
All three states are progressive policy hells. And all want higher taxes to fund their goals.
President Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders all want to tax the rich for their goals. What’s the key problem?
For discussion of Blue state hell and progressive policy in general, please see What’s the Big Problem With Taxing the Rich for Progressive Goals?
The answer is Progressive policy mandates are so huge, the rich do not have enough money.
They are coming after you even though they won’t admit it. See above link for a point-by-point analysis of proposals from Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.
I live near Santa Cruz. It’s unbelievable what so called progressives have done to this state. I think the road blocking protests over globalist policies in Europe should happen here. If Americans in their millions ever decide to block and gum up society over the completely open border this old man would likely join them. I’ve had enough of these crazy people.
I’m pretty sure your new neighbors in Mormon Dixie do not approve of this way of thinking, Mish. The last thing they need is more Gentiles.
People take the wealth they have saved and moved to somewhere cheaper. When i was a kid in sc. people were moving from new york to fla. Then when they did not like fla the moved half way back to sc and nc.
Sure Ca is expensive but the wages tend to be higher. Still sucks poor is poor.
Born and raised in California. Lived there 56 years. Moved to the Carolinas 4 years ago. Best move I ever made. Watching what Newsome alone has done over his 6 years in office is truly painful. Hopefully, he will never be President.
Why don’t you say you left Cali because there to many colored people. People flock to Cali because they can’t get it in racist red States.
Well, the place I live now has a far higher percentage of black folks than California, so I guess your comment is just a projection of your own latent racism. And your comment is a further testament to your ignorance, because the article shows no one is “flocking” to California in the first place. San Francisco now has the lowest percentage of black people in over 100 years because the liberals have driven them out. Moron.
Well David, US Department of Education NAEP test results in mathematics show the majorities of Black and Hispanic high school seniors (and by extension their populations) are innumerate (Blacks 66% and Hispanics 54%)
Since a majority of California’s non-subsistence jobs require good mathematical skills, these people will be decamping to other states.
Residents moving from unaffordable properties and cost of living in California, and etc., states to more affordable properties and cost of living states live in Texas, South and North Carolina, Florida is a sign that their household income is not rising as fast as their expenses.
The citizens of the US can thank the GOP and the Democratic Party for this occurrence but most of all the FED, which is owned lock stock and barrel by the banksters.
The economic collapse worldwide in ’08 – ’09 or the so-called Great Financial Crises, which in fact was a monetary crises still persists. It was caused by unsustainable debt, rampant speculation, lack of good collateral and to a much lesser extent demographics in the advanced economies of the world.
The solutions by national governments worldwide and world central banks was more of the same through various QE iterations in the developed and Chinese nation states or Eurozone in attempts to provide liquidity. In each instance the central banks and countries have only worsened the debt problem and the everything bubble.
Texas has a HIGH cost of living. They don’t have a state Tax or tax on regular food but they have HIGH property taxes and insurance. We have a lot of family that lives in Texas. It’s one of the states that has a surplus of funds. My parents property taxes went down this year. Our nephew was looking at a small 2 bedroom ranch home in Dallas for $500,000. People that are moving from California or New York think Texas is cheap compared to where they came from . Housing prices and rents have increased significantly due to supply and demand. The new construction is never ending.
Texas’ cost of living for a median wage household or median wealth household is less than California.
link to youtube.com
Depends on what tier income level one is. Texas can be a fairly high cost of living at the lower end of the spectrum. It’s only the families above the median that benefit via the lack of income tax. At the lower end, high property taxes bite harder. Another one of those cases where averages lie.
Median household wealth and median wage earners in Texas are have more disposable income than their peers in CA.
This is the most important metric. How much money do I and my family have left to save for our future.
EVERYthing else is BS.
Watch the YouTube video.
“…Progressive policy mandates are so huge, the rich do not have enough money.”
Marxists do run out of other people’s money. Do Steven Spielberg and Disney’s Iger support a wealth tax?
The one thing that has always struck me as odd, in regards to the taxes and poor management of States, is that the people with the most financial resources and assumed intelligence, to be able to escape, are the ones most likely to stay. Just baffles my mind, that they are truly this stupid.
Of course these same idiots, are the ones voting for this BS, but still an awakening at some point, one would think could, should, or would prevail! I guess we finally have the actual proof, that you truly just cannot fix stupid…
While it is nice to see some brain dead walking start to consider some common sense, and get out of these grossly run states of despair, we do need a vast wake up call to millions still…
And you honestly think that all the government people that you hate (cops, firemen, nurses and teachers – 50% of all government workers) are gonna just keep working for peanuts in Arizona, Florida, Texas just because of the rich warmth of the southern states? The northern states are expensive because life occurred — the not-so-productive people appeared up here — and theyre headed to southern neighborhoods too, just like the awful black people from the city started showing up in escapist suburbs. Southern people have managed to dodge the bullet for awhile, transforming heat and tourism into taxes. Enjoy it while it lasts. Even Mish cannot dodge taxes forever for what becomes necessary services. Oh thats right. You dont care. Youll be dead before that happens.
AR-15 Jesus teaches us to take, not give.
I’ve read that conservatives give more to charity, than liberals. Taxes are a take-a-way. The government didn’t earn the money, the person working 40-60 hours a week, did.
Why President Hoover, I thought you were dead. Churches and voluntary contributions were supposed to end the Great Depression. And then people started threatening to go downtown and take whatever food they needed to stay alive. By the way, nobody works 60 hours a week. They SAY they do, but they really dont (it sounds good).
Depends how you define charity. Most folks give to “charities” that serve their own interests – I give to my church, but >90% of that money benefits me. It’s actually very difficult to say how much each political persuasion gives to things that are non-self serving and are true charities.
Life occurs. Eventually all empires collapse. A new empire emerges. After WW2 the U.S. was producer to the world. Americans enjoyed it while it lasted. At the turn of the century, China became producer to the world. Much of American industry became hollowed out. Cycles never stop moving. What goes up, eventually goes down. Booms end in busts.
You say Mish cannot avoid taxes forever, but the flip side is that over taxation results in tax revolts, such as is happening with farmers in France.
Tax revolts are just another example of cycles up and down, booms and busts. Once the people figure out the tax money is spent on them. Then they cool down. Then another Trump comes along promising something for nothing. Then back to the revolts. Tiresome.
Nonsense. Trump isn’t promising something for nothing. You obviously have him confused with democrats who always promise a free lunch.
Nonsense. Nobody here hates cops and firemen and they get paid just fine outside of your leftist utopias. In fact,they do better because the spread between their income and cost of living is much lower than in blue states. But keep on displaying your arrogant bigotry for the rest of us to see.
“..the people with the most financial resources and assumed intelligence,..”
Don’t be a dupe. It’s unbecoming.
The whole purpose of central banking; as well as of “activist” courts, and really any government bigger than Jefferson’s in general, is exactly and specifically to ensure your stated assumption is dead, flat wrong.
“From competent, productive people; To incompetent idiots wholly dependent on The Fed and Government for all their privilege” is exactly how the cancer referred to as The Fed ensures it’s continued survival. Despite its obvious-to-anyone-even-semilitterate nothing-but-purely-destructive effect on the organism itself.
State migration is just as damaging as illegal immigrants. But, for different reasons, we in former firmly red states that are popular, like Colorado, are now blue. Our state is locked in blue in the State Capitol, and as everyone knows now, so is the State Supreme Court.
Migration from NY, CA, ILL, WA, OR to the Denver Boulder area produced a powerful blue political machine. It took many years for the transformation, but now it’s complete.
It’s ironic how blue politics killed the pleasantries of the old states of the new transplants, but they bring their politics with them and wonder why Colorado is turning into the state they fled. They didn’t see they were the problem.
We’re getting out of IL next month. We sold our condo and are having a new construction SF home being built in Kansas. The property taxes on our new SF home will be about the same as we’re paying for our small condo in IL.
Ca : 40 millions x (-)0.009 = (-)360K out in the last two years. NYS : 20 millions x (-)0.011 = (-)220K out in two years. TX, FL, NC TN, SC and Rehoboth Beach DE were invaded
The budget deficit should rise from 6% possibly to 15%/20% in the next recession. Paying high interest, collecting less tax and supporting the unemployed. Unless, the long duration hugs zero, in a negative territory in real terms. Portions of the unrealized promises paid by an IOU and cut, trimmed, if the president and politicians have the gut.
It’s probably mostly housing prices, honestly. Which is indeed partly a progressive/NIMBY issue.
I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking about this unless the trend persists long term, though.
We’re adding to the 2024 numbers
I just moved my family from Oregon to one of the free states (Texas).
Free for who? Not girls and women.
“Not girls and women.”
Real ones or trannies? I’m told that there isn’t a difference. 🙂
Nonsense. Women and girls have every right and privilege they have everywhere else. Even the unborn ones.
Texas does not permit access to abortion approximately after 6 weeks, so in effect a woman’s right to choose and freedom over her own body has been abrogated. She can leave the state and have the abortion if she can afford it or it is subsidized by someone else, or combo of people or organization.
In short, access only if you got mammon to pay for it.
So no, all women do not have the same rights in Texas as those that reside in pro choice states.
Your poor family.
Why worry about the metro areas. I am worried about the small towns and rural areas where everybody who can is trying to escape.
I live in such a place, in rural Idaho. A huge churn in homes here. People from warm states come in the summer, fall in love with the area and move here. Then winter comes…and stays. After a couple years they tire of it, sell and leave. Realtors love it as they get another sale. The local realtors call this “the winter kill.”
I can’t tell you why people are moving from any given state. I can tell you people who move to Florida are in for a disappointment. We have a home in GA, TN, and Florida. The only reason we continue to own one in Florida is my wife loves the beach and salt water. Insurance and property taxes are outrageous. 10% or so sales tax. Too many people. Fees for everything to offset no income tax but that is more than made up with said fees. The idea of retirement in sunny Florida brings in enough new people from cold weather states that it offsets deaths and people who leave. I’d get rid of TN and Florida homes if not for spouse. The numbers in percentages are not significant. When we see a trend over maybe 10 years I’ll pay attention. Anecdotal stories are that everyone I have discussed why they moved to or from any of the 3 states I have homes and friends in not one listed high taxes as their reasons for moving. Dreams, jobs, family issues were 100% of reasons given.
I’ve been told, by more than a few people, the same things you described above about Florida. Seems to be getting overly expensive and overcrowded.
I have to disagree. I have lived in Florida, off and on but mostly on, for the past fifty years, since the age of twelve. Back then the area I live in (the Tampa Bay area) was backward and almost like a third world country, with wholly inadequate infrastructure. The quality of the school systems was bad and the quality of the job market was worse. All of that has spectacularly improved over the past couple of decades. The one big negative is the home insurance issue and that is now being tackled by the Florida legislature, which recently went back in session. When one complains about any place they are expressing their opinion and that is highly subjective. The numbers tell the story more objectively and if Florida was as bad as Garry claims, it would not keep growing so rapidly in population. That could change in the future but as long as Florida does not make the mistakes California has (going way too far to the left politically), that will likely not be for a long time to come.
As I said, personal opinion and personal perspective. Obviously, Florida is not for everyone and neither is anyplace else. But facts are different and in your original post you said that Florida has a 10% sales tax. This is false, the state sales tax rate is 6% and some localities have an additional penny added on if approved by local voter referendum. And this is always for financing special projects such as schools, local roads and so on. You also suggested that the lack of a state income tax is offset by fees but that is also untrue because the benefit one gets by no state income tax varies according to individual income, whereas fees charged for such things as auto registration as one example, are the same for everyone. And therefore the higher the personal income the greater the potential savings realized by not having to pay a state income tax and rarely if ever will the fees charged by the state offset that.
You also implied that retirees moving to Florida are the main force driving its population growth. This is a commonly held misconception. In the past this was more or less true but today it is young people following job opportunities as a result of economic development that is the main driver of growth here.
I understand that you don’t like Florida and you are not alone in that feeling. But that is your own opinion and it does not reflect the larger, objective reality. An annual population increase averaging 350,000 per year is testament to the fact that a great many others do want to live here. It’s not perfect and never will be but that is also true of every other place on Earth. So long as the politics here remains stable and conservative, the growth will continue.
My family moved to the Space Coast area back in 1968. In spite of it’s name it was a really backward area with rockets on one side of the street and gators, snakes, armadillos and good old boys on the other side. It was really the Old Florida and I loved it. Now it’s too civilized. At least they kept Playalinda Beach intact.
Ok, I was just relaying what multiple people have told me about thier experiences. they are anecdotes take them for what you will. I personally have zero desire to move to Florida. Can’t stand heat and humidity myself, and I loath crowds. To each thier own.
Last month while in Florida I pulled into Publix parking lot and a guy was waving his gun because someone grabbed a parking spot he wanted. People being rude I see constantly down here but I’ve only felt unsafe over last 8 years or so. My homeowners was canceled and can only get it through Citizens. Went from $1800 to 5500 year since DeSantis has been in charge. Taxes are locked at 3% increase per year but only if I stay in current home. We’re 2 miles from beach and my wife wants to be closer. No way without property taxes going to $30k per year. Basically Florida sucks except for we love beach and boating.
Where in Florida may I ask did you see someone waving a gun over a parking spot? I’ve never seen anything like that in the West Palm area (lived here 19 years)
As far as taxes go, if you move, you may be able to keep your current taxes and assessment. This is known as as the Homestead exemption
link to karplaw.com
but it only applies up to 500K in value.
Largo where my home is.
One of my best friends lives in Maderia Beach. I’ve visited him often and we’ve never seen any guns waved about. Then again he lives right on the canals and has his boat on the dock so maybe being that close to the water means less crazies -LOL.
I think the reason insurance has skyrocketed is not DeSantis but rather the fact that there have been 2 hurricanes in that area in the last 5 years after not being any in the prior 50 years. Suddenly there are more there than here on the East coast.
I lived in Largo for over a year. No one talks about the traffic and violence in Florida. Now that housing and insurance have reached California level prices, there is definitely no reason to move back there.
Whats wrong with Tennessee?
It’s always seemed like a very nice place to live when I’ve visited (admittedly only a few times) and a potential inexpensive place to move to.
I enjoyed the climate in TN. Note I didn’t really say much bad about TN like I do Florida. Every place has plus and minuses. It’s too far from ocean without flying and we don’t do short trips.
As long as you can handle it that every third business you pass is a pawn shop, payday loan, title loan, or liquor store, it’s a wonderful place. I spent over a month there looking for a place to live, and that’s what I saw. I was also surprised to see that so many homes I was looking at had a foreclosure somewhere in the property history.
Everyone I have talked to that have moved to Florida love it. Taxes are just one reason. Most like the sea, salt water and choose because of the lifestyle but to each its own. Dreams, jobs and family issues are also good reasons to move there. Being stuck in a stagnate state is not a very good prospect either. Both California and New York have their virtues. One of my daughters lives in NYC and loves it because of the shear wealth of culture opportunities that you can’t find anywhere else in the US.
So much of the progressive program has been doing lasting, permanent damage…..the degeneration of public school education, the damage to family cohesion, the influx of so many unproductive, expensive illegal immigrants, increases in property crime and homelessness and mental illness…..these cannot be fixed just by swapping out a few leaders ….it surprises me a little that there arent more people who are moving out of the country entirely…….
I am considering it. The collapse of the US due to the progressive playbook will play out like the flooding of successive water tight compartments (states) oin the Titanic once the bulkheads (border) were breached. Slowly at first and then very fast. First people flee CA, NY, IL to better states but eventually the entire US will be wrecked.
Or it will devolve into smaller republics. I’m leaning toward a ‘national divorce’ — hopefully an amicable one — than anything violent.
Those folks who came across the border illegally are probably going to wish they had stayed home.
Go to the map –
link to heyjackass.com
The latest excitement from yesterday afternoon, a block from Michigan Ave and State St –
link to secondcitycop.blogspot.com
link to m.youtube.com
Send California, New York, and Illinois all of the illegals. Then these virtue-signaling states get a double win!
Go for the gold!
Interesting article Mish. Thanks for sharing.