Is the blue state exodus from California, New York, and Illinois making red states like Florida, Texas, and South Carolina more liberal? Studies suggest the answer is no.
Still Ruby Red
South Carolina is one of the beneficiaries of a blue state exodus. But contrary to popular theory, South Carolina Is Still Ruby Red.
Fed up with pandemic restrictions, Sandy Zal uprooted her family from Schenectady, N.Y., three years ago and moved here because of its Republican tilt. She and her husband named their new company Freedom Window Tinting, a nod to South Carolina’s ethos.
The Zals are part of a migration wave that has kept South Carolina ruby red despite an influx of newcomers from blue states. A Wall Street Journal analysis of census data found that a third of the state’s new residents between 2017 and 2021 hailed from blue states and a quarter from red ones, according to census data. The remainder came from closely divided states, including nearby Georgia and North Carolina, or are immigrants.
The Palmetto State is a prime example of why a yearslong wave of migration to the South has largely failed to change its partisan tint. In Florida, for instance, 48% of people who moved there between 2017 and 2021 came from blue states while 29% came from red states, Census figures show. Among those who registered to vote, 44% are Republicans, 25% are Democrats and 28% are nonpartisan, according to L2 data. Texas also has a heavier flow of newcomers from blue states but a greater share who L2 data estimates are Republican.
“When you’re younger you can afford to be a liberal—now you can’t,” he said. John Lush, who is no fan of Trump and will vote for Haley on Saturday, has enjoyed living under South Carolina’s conservative government. “The state politics are very nice. It’s agreeable,” he said.
Who Can Afford to Be a Liberal?
I disagree with the comment by Lush, “When you’re younger you can afford to be a liberal.”
Instead, I propose the first group of people who can most afford to be liberals are the political class that takes advantage of young idealistic fools. The process is accurately called “vote buying”.
The second group that can afford to be liberals are the arrogant elites such as Bill Gates and George Soros.
Understanding Blue State Exodus
Blue state exodus is largely Red or Independent because Republicans and Independents make up the majority of people with enough money to afford a house and choose to do so in a non-blue state for tax purposes.
As a result of blue state exodus, the blue states will get bluer and bluer until the whole thing blows up in the faces of blue state politicians.
What Metro Areas Are Attracting the Most New Renters?
The great escape from Blue states to Red states continued in 2023.
California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are the five top states people are fleeing on an absolute basis according to a National Apartment List report on migration.
Top Inbound Metro Areas
For discussion, please consider Great Escape: What Metro Areas Are Attracting the Most New Renters
Can the young afford to be liberal? The answer is a resounding no in relation to other age groups.
Stress is easy to spot by demographics.
Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar
Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due. For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011 at best.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29. Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Generational Homeownership Rates
The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report
Those struggling with rent are more likely to Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.
The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.
Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans
Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.
For discussion, please see Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap
The study did not break things down by home owners vs renters, but I strongly suspect most of the BNPL use is by renters.
There Are Two Economies But Only One Interest Rate
On average, the economy looks OK. But averages are misleading.
For discussion and nine charts, please see The Fed’s Big Problem, There Are Two Economies But Only One Interest Rate
Homeowners are in a position to sell a home and buy one elsewhere, often for cash. They are predominately older. The have nots cannot afford a home and are trapped where they are.
Anecdotally, we have two new neighbors in my subdivision. They moved here to escape California. We are in Utah.
There goes the kids inheritance. Living off the savings
Interesting weave of affordability and voting trends of recipient red states. Focusing on just voting trends I submit the longer the migration, the greater the affect.
Look at Las Vegas and how that metropolis has greatly affected the political terrain of Nevada. That city continues to trend blue and campaigning hugely in Vegas is critical to red politicians. Reno is the other city that has become the landing site for migrating Californians. Same issue as Las Vegas.
The continued migration of left thinkers into a red population skews the demographics and pulls the political climate centrist to left.
It was a Herculean feat to elect a Republican governor in Nevada and will be more difficult in the future for red states to remain red, as the dilution continues.
Trump Spent $1.3 Million In South Carolina, Nikki Haley Spent $16.5 Million — And Trump Won By a Landslide (RePost)
link to commoncts.blogspot.com
Today in Florida, down by the water, a couple next to us were from California, both prior prison guards, said “ we got out. It got scary”.
the democrats have done this on purpose. They are traitors to our home.
.
“Is the blue state exodus from California, New York, and Illinois making red states like Florida, Texas, and South Carolina more liberal? Studies suggest the answer is no.”
Well thank God. I have decided to stop reading right there! The sun is shining , its a beautiful day, and liberals have not destroyed everything!!
I will read the rest on Monday, Mondays are always the worst and since I am expecting a BUT in there somewhere, let it ruin my Monday.
Not today!
Mike, I luv ya man!
Most kids who attend better colleges leave home at 17Y/18Y and never come back. When they grad the job market pulls them away. Their parents grad with them. They come back to visit their old folks. Those who attend local colleges stay home until they grad. The problem is with those who stay with mums and pops and never leave. Mums keeps her mums power as long as she can bc there is too much risk out there. Pops are too weak, or rarely exist. That’s the American family. In the Muslim world father decide whom their kids will get married with and when. The kids respect their fathers and mothers. In their late 30’s they might become grandparents. In their 70’s/80’s they might accumulate 60/100 siblings all over the world. That’s their assets.
Good morning from yupscale liberal Lincoln Park neighborhood of Chicago! Well-infested with corporate managerial class stooges. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
link to cwbchicago.com
I always had 2-3 roommates in my youth. In fact, almost nobody I knew under 25 did not have roommates. Even the military has this structure.
Is rent really that high or does the youth have a high standard of living? From the ones I talk to it’s the latter. They want to live in very nice areas and have nice cell phones. Absolute BS. Get some roommates in a low income area and get a cheap flip phone and stop taking out student loans. Join the reserve Coast Guard for tuition and cheap medical insurance.
I’m so sick of hearing about this pity party of it’s different today. No it is not. The only thing different is we have a bunch of commie brats running around who want to live with mommy and daddy and not make any sacrifices. Yes, being young by and large sucks financially but it’s going to suck even worse not learning basic life skills. Can’t learn them living with parents.
While I agree with you, it all can’t be entirely blamed on the youth. When you are young, you take whatever is handed your way, and look for more, if it was good.
I dare say the parents are to blame in this through empowerment. Whether it be living at home rent free and/or no job, and pay for their school, and some even give allowances.
The Government by giving them school loans with no ability to pay, and they know it. Worse yet, setting up the parents or even worse, the grandparents to take the fall.
Also when the government changed the medical insurance to 26? If at home, or however that works today, as my kids have kids. Again it enables them to not have to work for it themselves. And be dependent on Mom & Dad and/or The Government literally by design. Who would say no to that set up, at the age of 17-22?
At an early age they are trained to depend upon the Government.
Unless the parents teach them otherwise, I agree. If they are left with merely the guidance of public schools and the like, they could easily get gobbled up imo.
goodbye helicopter parents. hello snowplow parents
When you are younger, you can believe that institutions can do the right thing.
By the time you are older, you’ve watched institutions screw up enough that paying them to try again makes no sense.
When people say Liberal, they mean more centrally managed and regulated by institutions.
Entertainingly, both the very blue mayor of LA and Trump share an approach of dismantling regulations and institutions. In LA, affordable housing gets to skip most permits now. It’s creating a boom in construction. Hopefully more blues and reds win with radical deregulation campaigns.
link to calmatters.org
When you are young if you are not a Democrat you have no heart.
When you become older if you are not a Republican you have no brains.
Few folks have the politics of the Cowardly Lion.
“When you’re younger you can afford to be a liberal—now you can’t,” he said. John Lush.
Well John is obviously a liberal of the tallest order, with that quote. I will assume he is also young with this ridiculous quote. If he happens to be above 30, then he is simply a fool, and will learn the hard way, that’s not true at all.
The young (to clarify I refer to 18-30 years old as young) are quite possibly, in the worst shape to possibly be in IMO. They battle with the elderly (to clarify I refer to 60-75 as elderly) for that crown, but the young hold it firmly I suspect.
When you’re very young, unless it is inherited or won somehow, you have zero money saved (in this instance) for purposes of heading out on your own. As you enter the workforce, on average, you’re in a group of $15-$30 per hour range. As you approach 25-30 or the tail end of youth, and you should be looking/have for a career path in something, and maybe a home and car purchase soon. Even if every everyone was making $30 per hour from 25 on, it’s only roughly 60K per year before taxes. So you’re taking home roughly 50K per year. That amounts to roughly $900 per week.
Your rent is roughly $1,000 per month. Your car is roughly $700 per month, your food and drinks are roughly $1,000 per month. Your heat, electric, personal hygiene is roughly $600 per month, and your cable and phone adds another $300 per month. That all adds up to roughly $3,600 per month, or $900 per week. A whole lot left to pay for still…
I think I may have left out a lot of other expenses like living and life as it is with surprises. Also savings for expenses that come up, investments for money for your future, and a home down payment savings account, and a new car. Add those expenses in and you not only in debt already, but you’re not exactly living life either. You’re living, breathing and working “Just to get by” which is a horrible psychological place to be in.
They talk about EV’s like there should be one in every driveway. They talk about new homes like everybody should be buying one. Not to mention that you need solar panels, windmills, and other mandated (eventually) items far beyond the normal every day citizens ability now, or in the near future anyway.
People are having a hard enough time keeping fed, warm and semi happy by the looks of things. I think stress and uncertainty is on everyone’s mind, and that only makes things worse. It’s as if living like your sitting on a powder keg and it’s going to blow if one more catastrophe strikes, like an unforeseen medical issue, or loss of a job, and it cools be absolutely devastating!
The Young are in a horrible place now, and in the foreseeable future from what I see. Even the elderly are if they did not plan accordingly (no, you can’t live on S/S these days), and prepare financially for where they would be. Oh add that onto the list of must save for items. That should start when you’re 30, or about the time you will be looking to get married, buy a home, and maybe have children. Maybe that’s why so many are waiting to have children until they are in their 30’s JS…
To be fair, everything you just described, I experienced as a Gen-Xer, yet here I am making more than I have ever made, two homes, retirements, pensions, cash on hand, etc. It’s grinding and getting in line. 99.8% of us did it this way, so why in history is this time different? There’s a reason perseverance and patience are valued traits in humans; these kids are going to have to learn the hard way. I had 5 kids, 3 are out of the house, and they have been reminded by me their whole lives this is how it goes. No whining. I’ve been working since 15, I don’t wanna hear it.
I applaud you TLS, I dare say, you are an extreme example of success at any level! Congratulations on a fantastic job!! I hope you keep it all, but it sounds like you’re very on top of things, so no doubt.
I am speaking of the average youth today, of which you are far from, and again I applaud you! I have also worked since the age of 15, but again, that’s not today. Young kids no longer take those starter jobs. Some gone due to technology and others due to it being unnecessary financially for whatever reason. I had no choice, but for survival.
While “perseverance and patience are valued traits in humans” These kids are going to have to learn a whole lot, to have even a remote chance at any measurable success I do believe. Things are simply very different in today’s World…
In the flyover areas landlords own a few clusters. Each cluster has 5/4 apt units. Each
unit has about one hundred rental apt. Each cluster has one mgr who runs the whole place and rent vacant apt to new tenants. Each unit has a maintenance man. One of them is a maintenance mgr. Each cluster has : 5/4 units x 100 apt for a total of 350/500 apt. No commission. The waiting list is long. There is one central office that mgt several clusters with thousands of apt in each division. Landlords might expand during the good times, building a pyramid of debt, financed by the regional banks, on the cusp of recession.
Landlords sell off apts as condos and flee to Fla with a heap of money.
Much easier to sell condos than to buy condos and create an apt complex.
Duh.
In NYC when a silent Gen or a boomer expires or moves out his neighbors on the floor tell relatives or friends to get it before it’s too late. After min maintenance a new tenant fills the vacancy. Real estate commissions are low bc most transactions are done under their radar. Landlords can raise rent bc there is no commission. Tenants have nowhere to go. The RE is red hot, not frozen, but the pressure valve was shut. It’s boiling, bubbling, but the steam has nowhere to go. When steam is coming out of people’s heads, when they are going mad, bad things can happen.
No problem.
We got sssst steam heat!
My wife & I moved to Oregon and opened businesses in 2017. At the time, we were both Democrats.
By the pandemic 3 years later, we were pretty disillusioned with the state, its politics, and the Dem Party.
After the pandemic, we were as anti-Democrat as it gets.
We could have afforded to reopen our businesses and stay in Oregon, but… hell no. We sure as hell didn’t want to raise our kids there or have employees there again. At one point as we pondered reopening they actually started planning a program to force retailers to check customer vax status via QR codes.
We escaped to Texas to avoid blue-state politics and schools. Our search for a new home started by ruling out every blue and purple state (having lived in California and Nevada as each went from red to blue, I didn’t want to take any chances on that happening again). We eventually settled on Texas after narrowing down to TX, FL, TN, NC and AL. I doubt we were alone.
That mass migration wasn’t solely based on finances. Many of them were post-pandemic political refugees.
Welcome. But what took you so long?
I live 40 min from Durham. I also manage rental properties for both myself and a large company.
About 1 out of 3 applicants for apartments are from New England here, fleeing the high cost.
THere has definitely been a shift away from big cities.
HOwever, the people I am seeing are coming to Durham\Raleigh because it’s the closest low cost area down I-95 from New England. Their pension goes a lot further here than it does in NYC and it buys them a lot more in square footage.
Just anecdotal experience here.
thank you for the input.
The reason why people move and in no particular order:
To move closer to a family member as they age.
Job relocation
Change of career
Job promotion
Cost of living
Health reasons
Captital gains on selling primary residence for a lesser priced or equivalent home
Weather
Quality of life
There could be a few that moved to a red state from a blue to align more with their political ideology but it is so infinitesimal that is probably a rounding error.
It will take till the next census to determine the actual change in registration.
Not until citizenship is a question on the census form.
You forgot be closer to the grandkids, granted only for those that can afford to move
Newport Beach, CA checking in. If you got the big big money, Newport Beach has a home for you. It is a slice of Republican heaven in California. No Republican would ever pass up a chance to live here.
“Republican heaven in California”
I think that is an oxymoron.
How did the suites on the Titanic fare relative to the other cabins?
People are leaving NYC after new people from the ME, the Caribbean, Bangladesh,
and Africa moved into their neighborhoods or their buildings. Those people work hard to raise and feed a family, they are not criminals, but they are not their “type”. It’s time to move on.
In the last two years 200K people left NY. The question is who, not how many. If boomers and the silent Gen moved out of NY state to retire in the south zoomers and millennials takeover their jobs. The NY latino population is growing.
Good case in point: here in the Peoples Republik of Minnesota. 2023 was the first budget that was completely controlled by the Democrats because they took over the state senate after already controlling the house and governor offices. We had a $17.6 billion surplus and the Dems SPENT IT ALL! I am sure the Dems realize how many stereotypes they have been fulfilling on both budgetary and social program additions. It was the greatest expansion of state government in state history. Unfortunately, there are unintended consequences everywhere. Case in point: part of the surplus funds went to paying for school lunches for all public school students. Due to requirements in the state law, this resulted in some school districts getting less state funding, which directly led some teacher positions being eliminated. The insane asylum is back in session now with a projected $2.5 billion surplus. Pretty soon there will be a budget shortfall, and the approach will most certainly be tax increases instead of spending cuts. I’m sure that was all part of their plan last year, knowing that tax increases would hit “the rich” more and socialize the revenue. I have thought about where the red line is before bailing this blue state, but unfortunately can’t move away due family reasons.
What was the point of the $17.6 billion surplus? governments should not have deficits nor surpluses, it’s tax money that should be funneled back to the tax payer as quickly as possible.
Perhaps if republicans hadn’t been mismanaging and hoarding money they wouldn’t have been voted out of office.
Feeding kids by eliminating teachers is fine with most people.
The things you complain about make me assume you are over the age of 65. Florida is the place for you.
How in the world would you conclude the Republicans were mismanaging the budget? He clearly stated the Republicans only held one chamber of the legislature AND they had a budget surplus. Reading comprehension matters.
Here in Wisconsin we still have a State Gov positive bank balance. The Dems want to spend it and Reps want to cut taxes. We need to rename any and all “surpluses” to Environmental-Devaluation-Imigration-Economic Disaster Recovery Funds. Then force every state to fund one and grow it every year.
I live in SoCal because I can afford to and because the weather and lifestyle are second to none. But I am also pleased that in these United States our Laboratories of Democracy are hard at work recruiting new members.
When we retire, we may liquidate and relocate. Or not. After 35 years here, having seen nearly it all, I can say confidently that politics will not drive my decision.
I believe you. I suspect that money will drive your decision or possibly crime. Those are the reasons people are leaving those states Mish mentions, not political views.
The problem is that democrats are soft on crime and fiscal responsibility which is what’s causing the issues in their states.
We left IL due to crime, high taxes and migrants/illegals.
Please take a moment to recognize that the root cause of your issues is the Democrat Party so that you don’t vote your new home into another Chicago.
Not ruling out crime as a factor, but so far so good. Crime in CA is splotchy — in OC there are several cities that are well-insulated from violent crime and of course the map is dotted with no-go zones too. One of the keys to happiness is knowing one’s world — where to go and how and when to get there. But yes, I would have no patience for degradation of safety if it came to pass.
But by the time you’ve reached “degradation of safety” what will your house be worth? Could you sell it? Who would want to buy it?
This is the problem my wife’s aunt has encountered in Portland, Oregon. She lives in what used to be one of the better neighborhoods, but now it’s the third highest in Portland for crime. The switch happened in only a few years. Now she can’t go out at night — it is too unsafe.
If you have doubts, move on your own terms, not when forced to.
You mean the OC cities that are predominantly Republican run.
Professor conclusively demonstrates that the Demand Curve does not go to infinity as price approached zero.
Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal – Demand (smbc-comics.com)
BigBlue brother is just going to bail out the blue cities and states. Seems like the dumber the decision the better the bailout. Just ask the people who never should have gone to college but are getting bailed out anyway.The states that are bailed out every day are generally red states. People don’t understand the hand that feeds them but frequently bite it.
link to smartasset.com
The only thing the blue states are feeding us is BS
Stats in the link are invalid, have nothing to do with bailouts. Thumb down.
And even if the goal was to genuinely understand federal spending flows to/from states, the analysis needs to exclude Social Security & Medicare (but not disability or medicaid) which are earned benefits by individuals, not states. Those recipients perhaps tend to “move to a red state” in retirement. Finally, the analysis should distinguish Defense from non-defense discretionary spending.
Bailouts, handouts, exclude this or that so that you come up with a carefully curated answer that fits your narrative?
Why don’t we make this super simple. What is the GDP of each state?
1. California 3.8 Trillion
2. Texas 2.5 Trillion
3. New York 2.1 Trillion
4. Florida 1.6 Trillion
5. Illinois 1 Trillion
California+New York+Illinois (BLUE STATES) = 3.8+2.1+1=$6.9 Trillion
Texas+Florida = 2.5+1.6 (RED STATES) = $4.1 Trillion
And here’s the kicker, most of that GDP comes from BLUE cities/counties not the “red’ parts. I study this because I base my investments on where I’m going to extract the most profits. Blue has plenty of cash, has been that way for a long time.
Any questions?
No questions, well done. Along those same lines, Italy is an economic powerhouse compared with Russia.
But no quality of life, at least for the average joe.
Exactly. California has the largest divide between rich and poor of all 50 states. San Francisco’s divide is larger than that of countries like Honduras and Guatemala.
What you forgot to mention was those blue states have the highest wealth inequality of all 50 states. So the benevolent party of the little guy has created blue states that have some billionaires, a shrinking middle class, and a crap ton of poor people. You also neglected to calculate the unfunded liabilities in the states, which is particularly ugly for the blue states. Mish in particular has highlighted the parlous state of Illinois finances. Any questions? I have one. Do you have to be a smug arrogant jerk to be a liberal, or does that come after?
As I pointed out, the welfare states tend to be the red states. Within red states the counties that are welfare counties are the red ones. Blue is where 80% of the money is made. You want to be rich, move to the city. Want to be poor, stay in rural.
And inequality has existed since the beginning of time, look it up in your favorite ancient religious text of any religion, there is always a gap between rich and poor and always will be that is how the system is designed. The rich are tested for their benevolence and the poor are tested for their fortitude amongst other things. Blaming either on politics is a fool’s errand.
This isn’t true the majority if blue states are net contributors to the federal government. In fact when you look at the data almost ALL the states pay more to the federal government than they recieve
In fact the most dependent state is a blue state New Mexico but that is due to their very high elderly population relative to the res of the state. Next is West Virginia but it would be disingenuous to not acknowledge West Virginia had been a rockk solid blue state until very recently.
link to smartasset.com
Oversimplification leads to erro. Here, the Cantillon effect applies – Blue states are generally high-inflation, high-debt, high-cost of living states. They got there because of excess credit supply, and Blue-state prices & costs were pushed up by other poor policy choices as well. Given the cost differences for identical things, GDP is a flawed metric. GDP A basic haircut for example is fundamentally the same in any state, but gets measured at 2-4x (for GDP) when the scissors are in a blue state with high overhead costs. Meanwhile, tangible output (goods not services) derive more in red states (and red parts of blue states). The fact that services cost less in red states is a blessing (better standard of living), not a curse! But GDP is too oversimplified to know that.
That’s a lot of economic babble but clearly you’re going to believe whatever you want despite a mountain of data to point out the obvious. believe whatever you want and invest in all the red states, let me know how that works out for you.
If you treated Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois and California as stock then invested in Texas and Florida would have given you an extra 1.5% over New York, Florida and Illinois.
Moreover, we are in the process reindustrializing. Those industries have, and will continue, to pick red states over blue states because it’s cheaper to do business. In fact manufacturing has already been shifting from the rust belt to the south since the 90s.
link to economist.com
The problem with your analysis is your not accounting for what drives the blue city/county GDPs.
Their GDPs are higher because they are focusing on the higher value added sectors of the economy but they can only do so because other red rural counties/cities are taking care of the lower valued but necessary adds such as food, manufacturing and power generation. I’m from the blue side of Washington, just outside Seattle. and more than 60% of our states power generation and almost all our basic foodstuffs come from east of the cascades in the red rueal counties and a large portion of our manufacturing as well.
Seattle could not be the tech and financial capital of the region if it wasn’t for the support of the red counties pure and simple and it’s just blind hubris to think otherwise.
Case and point, look at Germany and Russia post sanctions and ask which one has been hit harder economically? The answer is Germany because they lost access to the cheap energy they needed to support their high value add manufacturing sector and it has gotten so bad those companies are leaving Germany all together.
I’d also would say growth rates also matter more than absolute GDP
Texas and Florida had a combined growth of 7% last year.
California, Illinois and New York had a combined growth of 5.9% or in other words they are losing out in 1.5 trillion in growth over 10 years to Texas and Florida
link to worldpopulationreview.com
Exactly
The whole red state vs blue state paradigm is meaningless because people can move to deep blue counties in red states (called cities) or people can move to red counties in blue states by leaving the city and heading out to rural areas in the middle of nowhere.
What bothers me and surprised it doesn’t bother most people are state income taxes. I’ve lived in both state income tax and no state income tax and I’ll take a tax free state any day of the week and twice on Sunday. I see zero benefit from handing any state a part of my income on top of paying federal income tax.
And before anyone points out that property taxes will be higher in state income tax free states, that doesn’t bother me much because I can always choose to live in a smaller home but I am certainly not going to choose to lower my income to lower my taxes.
From what I understand some states, like Utah, even tax social security income so you’re paying double tax on social security…Ouch.
“…people can move to deep blue counties in red states (called cities) or people can move to red counties in blue states by leaving the city and heading out to rural areas in the middle of nowhere…”
This has been my thinking as well. Serious question. Is there a large to medium sized city in the US that isn’t some shade of blue?
Here are some.
link to homesnacks.com
Tried to post link to this and went to moderation.
The 10 Most Conservative Cities In The United States For 2024
Corpus Christi, TX
Oklahoma City, OK
Tulsa, OK
Lubbock, TX
Kansas City, MO
Wichita, KS
Fort Wayne, IN
Bakersfield, CA
Colorado Springs, CO
Fort Worth, TX
Only place i would visit is Colorado Springs for the Garden of the Gods.
I’ve been to half the cites on that list (Corpus, Oklahoma city, Lubbock, Colorado Springs and Ft Worth).
None are big tourist areas minus Colorado Springs so it’s not surprising you wouldn’t visit. But at the same time, none are bad places to visit in and of themselves.
I only visit for great food & entertainment or profits hence why CS is only good option. If I want to go to a beach why would I pick Corpus Christi over Cancun or the Caribbean? Heck, I’d rather go to Miami than Christi. Not sure what any of the other cities would even have beyond chain or fast food restaurants and the industrial chow they feed the masses.
Feel free to visit downtown LA, Chicago, or San Francisco then.
San Diego has been electing Republican mayors for some time. San Diego County is quite deep Red.
Income tax-free states must raise revenue somehow, and are notorious for high property and sales taxes. The important criterion in total tax paid. I rather enjoy my 1% valuation property tax rate in CA, with no greater than 2% annual increases in tax paid. People move to Texas where there is no state income tax but there are all kinds of taxes nonetheless.
Oops just saw your disclaimer. Feel free to ignore.
It works well for some,
Uneaten and Trashed: How New York Wasted 5,000 Migrant Meals in One DayDocGo, entitled to receive up to $11 for each meal, throws away thousands of uneaten meals each day, according to internal company records. NYT
The Covid Test Company That Got Into the Migrant Business
DocGo, which was awarded a $432 million contract by New York City, moved migrants upstate. Some complained about how they were treated. NYT
DocGo in the running for $4 billion contract for migrant services
DocGo CEO says NYC migrant work helps the company’s multi-billion dollar bid for U.S. Customs and Border Patrol contract
Actually, I read an article and I believe $11 is breakfast and it goes up for lunch and way up for dinner. Something like $50 or more per immigrant per day.
Haves and have lesses. It’s America. Free enterprise (even as compromised as it is presently) produces haves and have lesses. Using the Marxist term “have nots” is not helpful to defending free enterprise from its detractors.
The reference to “have nots,” in context, could be to those who don’t have a home. For such, it is an accurate shorthand. They have not a home. So, I may have been unfairly critical in reacting to the common use of the term.
It used to be said that the US was the only nation where poor people have parking problems. Being a small fish in a strong economy can still be much better than being in a weak economy.
We do need to fix the housing affordability crisis, though, by building more housing … and actually crushing inflation rather than simply letting it simmer.
P.S. For those who didn’t “get” the first line above, it used to be that in most of the world the poor couldn’t even own a car, but they could in the US. Hence parking problems.
The statistics don’t show a massive migration. In/out from California of 100K in a State of what 40 million or so. Probably has more to do with price of houses than Red/Blue. Even in rural Red GA where one of my homes are is 40% Blue which is why I laugh when I hear GA embarrassment MTG talk about succession and splitting the country into Red/Blue states. Stick with economics which is why I started reading your blog 10+ years ago
I live in South Florida and work with a luxury developer/builder and the amount of wealthy people they’re encountering that are moving here from New York and to a lesser extent California is probably a 20 fold increase from just 2 years ago. I love California. It’s probably the most beautiful state in the country, but the state and many local governments there are insane. Most probably want to leave quietly.
Economic = Political Economy = Moral Philosophy at its core. Economics is political by its very nature. Which stats matter, which theory one follows, whether one studies or believes in MMT or Keynesianism or Austrian or post-hermaphrodite-neo-feudal-crypto-digital-transhuman-currency models … all of these choices reflect the same fundamental (possibly innate) human attitude differences (biases?) that give rise to the liberal/conservative political dichotomy.
There are some issues which are purely political, without much economic impact. Conversely, there ought to be a school of economics which focuses in a non-political way on the practical workings of the economy without trying to “sell” specific policy choices. But I’m guessing those economists don’t get their voices amplified by the media.
The statistics DO show a migration. It’s net migration which should total to 0 nationally.
I don’t think 330K outflow (not the 100K you mentioned) is insignificant and I’m sure municipalities in TX and FL are equally challenged by handling the inflow.
That was 330k outflow in one year! Imagine if, by 2030, all of Sacramento County were suddenly in Lee County, FL because that’s where the simple math takes you!
I’m just curious why you wouldn’t even quote the correct figure in the lead chart?!
A two-home-owning liberal telling me why a net outflow is meaningless and insignificant and belittles Mish in an ad hominem attack rather than analyzing the Census Bureau evidence of migration–smh. If it weren’t meaningful, important, relevant or impactful would they even count it? Would Mish comment on it if it were purely political and had no tie to economics? Not often and it is in his Economics section.
There are economic factors involved with migration patterns and economic impacts when folks choose to leave, especially when you notice that CA and NY are high tax states and TX and FL have no state income tax.
Excluding natural population growth, imagine 3.5 Million people leaving California over 10 years and yet you imply it’s relatively nothing. Pretty sure policymakers will and are noticing that loss from the tax rolls!
And on your comment about embarrassment and silliness of secession (spelled correctly), I believe a lot of folks right now would be okay with divorce because all we have left are the irreconcilable differences. Your comment and failure to actually grasp what Mish was covering is one of those differences.
I’ll still read disagreeable comments but I sure wish I could get away from such nonsense regarding economic (and political) policy. Not an MTG fan but she has a point.
I DO appreciate the assessments and Blue Versus Red Choices and all…but, but:
TRUMP could NOT (they will not let him if he had the intent) to “Drain The Swamp.” I would say it this way:
IF YOU WANT TO DRAIN a POOL OF WATER, or a SWAMP, the incoming re-fill mechanisms need to be shut OFF.
AND, more importantly, if the Water were RED OR BLUE, it makes no difference at all when it comes to the BRIBERY setup we have now, called: “LOBBYING.”
We are sunk if things CANNOT change because we are VOTING FOR A UNIPARTY on the primary issues we face: DEFICITS, MONEY PRINTING, FED CONTROL, INFLATION, WARS and LYING.
MIX RED AND BLUE TOGETHER and the COLOR is: PURPLE.
OUR POLITICAL PARTIES ARE PURPLE. THE COLOR PURPLE.
IT IS HOPELESS. DO NOT WASTE your MINDS thinking that it will be different THIS TIME AROUND.
MARK MY FREAKING AWFUL WORDS. I AM THE TRUTH screaming at you.
Can’t upvote this enough. The delusion is real, people actually think that they can make difference in this setup. You can’t. The markets are working as designed. Yes ALL of them, including the ever-growing GUB.
Durham, NC, a destination searched on in the above table, is liberal in nature. Instead of beating protesters after George Floyd was killed, the cops took a knee to say to the crowd that they understood the cops are supposed to bring in the perps instead of killing them. A common sense move. Very different than in Raleigh, NC and Portland, OR.
It was silly for protesters or police to conflate police departments in other cities and other states with the police department in Minneapolis. BLM even did a protest march here in Korea, which is ridiculous.
People aren’t moving to Durham to avoid crime.
Durham is a cesspool of crime, and has one of the highest crime rates in all of NC.
People are searching Durham because of kneeling cops? I’ve heard some weird takes on the internet in my day, but that one is in a special category of it’s own.
Durham is home to Duke University. Not sure how much of an impact that has on the liberal attitudes of Durham, but here in Florida, FSU in Tallahassee and UF in Gainesville are bastions of ‘blue liberals’. They are both in North Florida which is deep-red except for Leon County (FSU) and Alachua County (UF). Bottom line, university towns are typically a lot more liberal than the surrounding communities.
I think you had it right in first part … its the true believers and the nutbags who are the first to try something new. Whoever comes next is just looking for a cheaper life. Sadly, life costs in this mature, nowhere to go country, and if you think the southern government employees are going to continue to work for nothing forever, yes, youll be dead, but the future people will be paying the same as the blue north. Fact #1: a Phoenix cop already costs the same as a Chicago cop and fact #2: youtube is swamped with videos about people fleeing Florida cause of its ridiculous insurance costs and rents. Sorry guys. You cant escape for long. The nuns have left the building. No more cheap booze and cigarettes for you. 🙂
It is not just the cost of living, it is taxes, it is crime, lawlessness, homelessness, illegal immigrantion, insanity, perversion, corruption, bad schools, socialist policies, government tyranny in the blue states and blue cities is causing the exodus. Liberal perverts and pedos are fleeing Florida due to strong laws.
Oregon?
Thing is, though: There is no difference between Florida and California. Nor between Obama, Trump nor Biden.
On a scale of Jefferson’s America at 100, and Pol Pot’s Cambodia a 0: Every state, every Uniparty administration and every city, police department,school board……is somewhere between, say, 12 and 13. Who the f cares?
Ron Paul was different. As in, like, meaningfully in some areas. You’d actually notice something different, had he won with enough of a majority to “rule.” Not just hot air and childish babble.
The Taliban administration in Afghanistan is definitely different, although not necessarily in a strictly positive direction on every issue,accordig to some. But at least they’re doing something,anything, just the tiniest bit differently than Obama, Trump, Biden, Newsom, DeSantis and the rest of the Unipartists. You’d actually notice something changing, if those guys rolled in and took over. As opposed to not noticing anything at all, when Biden fell down some stairs and bumped Trump out of the White House, nor when you go from Disneyland to Disney World.
Talk about getting one’s twisteds tied in a knot over absolutely nothing.
There is a huge difference between California and other states. I lived in California for 56 years and have lived in 2 other states in the last 4 years. Both are significantly more livable than California
I go to Florida and it’s almost exactly the same. Better for boating, worse for Motorcycling; better for swimming in winter, worse for surfing.
I can keep a few guns with a few tiny features slightly different from ones available in Cali. Compared to the ones available to those the 2nd was intended to help protect against, none of the differences amount to much at all.
Still the same pointless taxes, ambulance chaser shakedowns, “mandates”, bans, restrictions blah, blah. Still the same terror-state debased currency; with neither state doing anything to protect it’s residents from the robbery resulting from not working on facilitating working around it.
Compared to how different-from-today either later-to-be-state was back when Jefferson was in the White House; there’s not even a percent or two difference between them currently. Ditto if you compare either one to Kandahar.
You have to be really looking specifically to maximize supposed “differences”, for there to be much of any at all. Compared to any Ayn Rand supposed Utopia, they’re both 99+% of the way to North Korea.
Videos are just anecdotal, and some people will always have valid reasons to leave a state, including rising costs. But the stats show continued net migration into Florida.
My theory is that this transition is deliberate and intentional as part of the “Great reset” by those on the left. Changing the sociological/economical conditions in blue states to force liberals down and out from states that they will never lose and driving them to red states to upset the political balance. (IE California, Oregon, Washington/DC, New York, Mass, etc)
Hope you’re right about not turning Red’s bluer, Mish. My 31 year old prog daughter from Portland, OR is horrified with my POV, but she and the boy “fren” are moving to Alabama because Portland is an excrement show. Pretty sure daughter hasn’t changed all that much politically.
Not true in Idaho. PMC immigration from the Pacific coast cities has turned Boise solidly Democratic, complete with a woke mayor, numerous green initiatives and new anti-landlord ordinances.
Guess what … Red States are quickly becoming as expensive. It is easy to be cheaper if you do not need public education and healthcare. Then you can spend all the saved money in $30k per year middle schools. If you care about education that is.
The best city for healthcare in the world: Houston, Texas. There’s a hospital or private clinic seemingly on every corner. California has a three month wait for a GP, and that is if you have private insurance. If you have California Coverage, try to find a doctor that will accept it.
Schools: California is about indoctrination to left wing causes. Texas, 3Rs (and football). California education is a joke at this point, which is one reason home schooling is skyrocketing there, or you spend to get into the few non-woke districts left, or private schooling, which is more expensive in CA than TX. link to thefederalist.com
Someone who says that Red States are worse for (fill in the blank) has no experience, making blanket statements to fit their world view, and so on and has no basis in reality.
You are aware that Houston, TX is a deep blue city in a deep blue county right? The state of Texas gets half of it’s tax revenue from Harris country.
Because the oil industry is headquartered there, which is conservative
You mean like big liberal companies like BP & Shell. Then why do they keep voting for democrats?
BP and Shell aren’t “liberal”. They contribute huge amounts of money to Republicans. And corporations don’t vote, people do. The point is that Houston generates huge amounts of money because they are in the old, conservative hydrocarbon industry. You know, the industry Biden promised to shut down?
Oh really? I pulled all the data from FEC and can’t seem to find all those generous donations. Why don’t you tell us all where they are….
link to fec.gov
and BP and Shell are leading that whole “green” energy initiative that repubs hate. You’d know that if you were from the investment class.
There’s no way the healthcare in Houston is better than South Korea’s or Japan’s. In Korea, I pay around $100 a month for health insurance that’s accepted by all doctors, there is no deductible, and I can be seen by a specialist without an appointment within a half hour. Anywhere in the USA, you’re lucky to actually see a specialist instead of an LPN or PA, but you still get billed specialist prices, but actually 50 or 100 times what Koreans and Japanese get charged. South Korea and Japan are in the top 5 of longest lifespans. The USA is 59th and people in Houston die young too.
I’d trust Sal Khan before any Blue Zoo ‘educators’.