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Green Party Implodes in Germany

Talk of a Green government in Germany collapsed along with support for the party.
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Greens Surged Ahead of CDU-CSU Then Collapsed

At the end of April and beginning of May, support for the Green Party surged, briefly putting them in first place. 

Talk of a Green government ensued. Take a look at the turn of events. 

Think Germans are Green?

There are polls, and there are polls that explain the polls. The latter are the interesting ones.

An Infratest dimap poll, published June 10, debunked one of the more persistent myths about Germany - that it is naturally a green country. Germany has a strong Green party, but there is a specific history to that, one that one should not be confused with general attitudes in society.

Here are some of the highlights. Should the state outlaw behaviour that is particularly damaging to the climate? 53% say No. Are you in favour of higher petrol prices? 75% say No. Should the government encourage a shift from fuel-driven to electrical cars? 57% say No.

The Greens are back to where they were at the beginning of the year, at around 20-22% - which we think is where the current core support lies. 

The above snips are courtesy of Eurointelligence

Next Election

The next German Federal election is September 26. 

It is difficult to envision any strong coalition based on the most recent polls. It is difficult to put together something that adds up to 50% that actually makes any sense. 

Recall the Yellow Vest Protests

Anyone recall the Yellow Vest Protests in France when French President emmanuel Macron tried to hike the gas tax to pay for clean energy. 

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The protests (riots is a better word given the violence) began on November 17, 2018 and went on for a year. 

Switzerland Referendum

People may say they want Green policies but no one wants to pay for them.

That was the message just a week ago when Swiss Reject Climate Change With Zoomers and Millennials Leading the Way

Comments on the Implosion

A reader commented: "If a reduction of 5 percentage points from 25 to 20 percent is regarded as "imploding" then both the Republican and the Democratic parties in the US have imploded several times."

That's a poor way of looking at things in a multiparty system.

Six percentage points (25 to 19) in a six-way or more multi-party system is an implosion. The Greens went from forming a government to perhaps not even being in it.

If you do the math, support for the Greens plunged 24% in about a month. Yes, that's imploding.

I do expect the Greens will be in the next government but perhaps they prefer to be the main opposition. Curiously, there are several parties who may prefer to be the main opposition rather than a junior partner.

The next government may not be very stable.

Mish