Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and Chair of Obama’s CEA lectures people on how well off they are. 
You might be thinking this is another Mish satirical fiction post, but it’s not. Here are some ideas to ponder by Jason Furman.
It’s the Media’s Fault
- “The macroeconomy is strong–high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation–the best of any advanced economy. But there was a reluctance to present/understand how families were still not out of the deep inflation hole. And too much masked by cherrypicking/misleading stats.”
- “Selective amplification has been rife. How many times did you see a chart of US GDP exceeding other G7 economies?”
- “Cherrypicking also rife.”
- “Most wage data shows that wages have, indeed, risen more than prices. BUT, most wage series show that it was well below trend but the few that showed above trend amplified much more often to the exclusion of showing other measures.”
- “Or the endless repeating of that graph w/ the increase in spending on manufacturing structures (often shown nominal, ignoring the big price increase) as a sign of a manuf resurgence when other manuf investment was down, manuf employment down & prodn flat.” [Mish Note – I never once saw that chart and if I didn’t, who did?]
- “Yes people suffer from money illusion (thinking they deserve their raises but price increases happen to them).”
- “Yes, many problems were amplified by misleading media and partisanship.”
- “I don’t pretend to know what message politicians should use. Maybe Harris should have bragged more about how great everything was by using selective data. Maybe she should have been more negative. I really don’t know.”
- [Mish comment: Gee, I wonder if lying about the economy on top of lawfare, calling Trump a fascist, and pretending to support fracking while saying she could not think of anything she would have done differently than Biden, would have helped. Then again perhaps telling people they were better off than the average person in Germany may have worked. I really don’t know.]
- “A lot of horrendous right-wing misinformation out there.” [Mish comment, note the irony of that statement vs the previous two bullet points.]
Reflections on Academic Wonderland
Academic clowns sit in their ivory towers telling people how good they should feel. On top of that they blame the media.
If I posted a chart of GDP of the US vs Europe, who the heck would have seen it other than those in academic wonderland, stock market investors, and a select few of us on Twitter?
More to the point, the idea is idiotic. The average person does not give a damn if US GDP is better than Europe. Only those in wonderland would concoct such a construct.
And seriously, has anyone here seen the “endless repeating” of the chart of manufacturing that Furman refers to?
Furman proves how much out of touch academia is with the lives of ordinary people.
Here’s Your Money Illusion
Hello Jim Bianco, please give Jason Furman a call.
Blaming the Media for Amplification
Blaming the media is an amazing hoot of its own. Hell yes, everything was amplified, about 15-1 against Trump.
The media repeated every charge of racism, lawfare (without calling it lawfare), and finally, things accelerated so much we had Obama and Biden calling Trump a Nazi and a fascist.
Wage Revisions
Real hourly compensation fell 4.2 percent in 2022. And it fell a revised 0.2 percent in 2023.
Damn that BLS Productivity Report.
That report was out yesterday. So, Furman believed things were better in 2023 than they were. But people didn’t. It’s “money illusion” says Furman.
Professor, can we discuss the real world instead of your illusion?
The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad
The Brookings Institute is right there with Furman. It called low consumer sentiment a paradox.
I gave a helping hand to the Brookings Institute.
Dear Brookings, Here’s Your Paradox
- The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary
- Negative 818,000 job revisions
- Job openings crash
- Full Time Employment: -1,000,600 from a year ago
- Total employment: only +216,000 from a year ago
- Excluding government, year-over-year employment is negative for the last 9 consecutive months
- Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.
- The unemployment rate is up 0.7 percent from the low at a pace that strongly suggests recession.
- Home prices are up 49 percent in less than five years to new record highs.
- A $150,000 house in 1988 now costs $707,500.
- The mortgage rate is back above 7 percent.
- The share of first-time buyers of existing homes is at a record low.
- Even if you have a home, what about flood insurance, fire insurance, and car insurance.
- The Fed’s Beige Book looks very recessionary
- The immigrant crime spree is real. The FBI lied about the crime rate dropping.
- Evictions are at record highs in many states and might be everywhere were it not for eviction moratoriums.
- Tens of millions of people want to buy a home but can’t afford one and a different set of tens of millions of people are trapped in their homes but won’t because of mortgage rates.
- A Bank of America survey shows over 40 percent of the nation is living paycheck to paycheck.
Please consider The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad, I Can Help
In my post, I offer 10 charts and many links that I challenge Furman and The Brookings Institute to refute.
Please click on the above link, and give it a crack. Tell me and my readers why GDP and warm fluffy thoughts would have mattered more than my allegedly cherrypicked data.
Citing GDP, the stock market, CEO confidence, and even increased air travel (things the average Joe does not give a damn about), the Brookings Institute could not figure out why sentiment is in the gutter.
I am pleased to report Jason Furman has figured this out.
It’s the Media!
In academic wonderland, if we do not tell people they are losing money to inflation, then they wouldn’t know.
And then they would have voted for Harris. And that’s why she lost.
Silly Me
I thought that 40% of the nation living paycheck-to-paycheck mattered. I thought negative year-over-year employment for the last nine months, except for government, mattered.
I thought that millions of people trapped in their homes unable to move, somehow mattered. And I thought millions of other people unable to buy a home (but let’s not call that inflation) mattered.
For more of my thoughts, please see Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture
Please check it out and tell me where I went wrong.
Bottom line, Furman nailed it.
Harris lost because of the media. If only we would have told people they were better off than they were, people would have believed it.
I go with Woodsie
“Stop with conspiracy innuendos. There was no vote conspiracy in 2020. If there was, then why did they allow Trump to win in 2024? I guess the “deep state” is just getting sloppy with allowing Trump to win this time.”
This is what happened.
It’s that simple so stop the conspiracy bullshit.
I voted positive, but I am willing to bet your final score is negative.
I wish the blog would stop combining the up and down votes so we could get a true picture of how many of each there were! e.g +15/-18 is a lot more useful than a flat -3.
Even better, show who voted each way, as Disqus does.
In 2020, everyone hated the other guy and voted. Plus, everyone got mail-in ballots. In 2024, millions of people hated both candidates and didn’t vote.
Trumps R 2024 totals are on pace to surpass his 2020 totals
Harris D totals are on pace to be millions of votes short of Bidens 81 million down by 12 million currently .
So the Mail in Ballots and the hate only helped the Dems in 2020 it didn’y help the Rep according to your statement and the actuall numbers because REP numbers are near the same or up up .
Thanks for clarifying
Not “everyone got mail-in ballots”. I’ve never been sent a ballot in my life.
The deep state doesn’t need to “steal” the election at the ballot box. The cheating is done by the MSM way before the elections by one sided reporting, psyops, and so on.
In 2020, all MSM was on Biden’s team.
Elon Musk, by purchasing Twitter, opened the floodgates for disenfranchised masses who were wondering what their MSM was reporting without any feedback.
That made the difference in 2024.
Mish, make sure you buy that Powerball ticket at the gas station tonight.
California’s “slow vote count” gives them ample opportunity to submit fake ballots in the name of registered voters who did not vote, all the while massaging the “statistical indicators” surrounding those fake votes to make them undetectable. Perhaps the Republicans should have picked up an additional five seats in the House of Representatives, but now they won’t. I find it extremely disconcerting that only the states in the west seem to be “unable” to tally 90%+ of their votes within two days of the election. I know many Democrats who submitted protest votes on Democrat House candidates because they are tired of Democrat overreach, and wanted to make sure to send a message. Where are those votes? There are a lot of hispanics that “switched sides” in this election natonwide, but not in California? Where are those votes?
This comment supplements a previous reply to MIsh which was removed as ‘spam.’ It raised issues pertaining to the change in votes #s between 2020 and 2024. Perhaps more importantly, it reviewed the Democrat proclivity to lie, act fraudulently, and abuse legitimate government, and gave examples.
I could also have listed their utter disregard for democracy–appointing Harris as candidate, All of this PROVES a propensity to cheat when it is to their advantage. It does not prove they cheated in 2020. Indeed, I’ve often pointed out the brain-washing effect by the MSM.
Woodsie asks why the Democrats didn’t cheat in 2024. My prior post gave one answer–they expect a major recession soon, and this enables them to blame Trump, and perhaps devastate the Republicans in the long term. To do so, they’d pick a not-very-smart candidate, someone of zero value.
I neglected the obvious reason, simply because it is so OBVIOUS. Assume the Democrats cheated in 2020,Perhaps by adding one Trump vote for every 6 Democrat votes. Would they dare do it again in 2024, when they are being watched closely?
Democrats are not dumb; they just lack integrity. They demonstrate it now as they blame voters for voting.
There is a group of people that absolutely impacted the election nobody is talking about. It’s the gamers living at home due to DEI and inflation. The final straw was when DEI started impacting game play. Sounds like a joke but it’s a massive chunk of disgruntled males. Kamala tried to get them on Fortnite but it ended up causing more damage.
LOL
.
Just wait until the US government stops backing new student loans. Universities will have to get competitive. Many professors generating students with useless degrees will suddenly find themselves in the real world.
It’s not the media’s fault. It’s not Biden’s fault. You lost because your candidate sucks!!!
yep – more campaigning time would not help Que Mala.
She’s just bad. As was the process that nominated her.
The biggest problem with these so called academic economists is that they don’t do economics
They do politics.
The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary.
PLUS
10 million Illegal Immigrants are competing with CITIZENS for lower middle-class jobs which is stagnating wages.
The Gated Community/Ivory Tower will never understand the above.
Exactly … the GC/IT Elites want cheaper/better slave-labor. True Capitalists!
”
…..How many times did you see a chart of US GDP exceeding other G7 economies?”
”
And exactly what does me making up some arbitrary number NTF, supposedly exceeding something equally made up in Turkey, have to do with how well someone is doing?
Those Academics need to go work in the fields.
No matter what anyone says, the first and foremost reason for the Dems losing was their choice of Harris to be the standard banner, an awful pick for the job.
This being said, the media, in its never ending quest for eyeballs/clicks to sell advertising into, helped normalize Trump and minimize all the garbage that spewed out of his mouth with their incessant coverage of anything he said.
It’s like the overuse of the word genocide related to the Palestinians in Gaza. The word no longer gets any reaction from most people. It is just another word that has lost its shock value.
The media engineered the same thing with Trump.
But can you blame them? The answer is realistically no. Despite all the protestations from media about delivering truth and so forth, the base truth is that they need to make money to continue in business and will feature whatever content helps them maximize the goal of bringing in more $$$. Media is like the fable about the scorpion and the frog:
Biden punished the dems for ousting him after mumbling in the debate.
He also helped tank Harris. He was forced to step aside but Jill Was going to do everything in her power to ensure Harris lost.
Jill Biden did not like Harris! See:
People are happy bc SPX is > 6,000.
Another ivory tower academic using his statistinks to prove how good people should feel. Maybe he should go out there more, or try to buy his third or forth property. I am sure, he can afford it.
Is he actually moonlighting from the social studies department?
He has a web site that promotes his speaking engagements.
Will re-post this idea that someone else came up with.
Only in America. Just think, only a few short days ago Donald J Trump was working at the checkout counter of McDonalds, and just like that he gets to be president elect.
Don’t forget driving a garbage truck.
I watched the video of him at McDs. He mainly just talked, using the opportunity for rhetoric when he shouldve put his head down and focused on working, to set an example of what this country really needs.
The academics are getting their information from CNN and MSNBC. It’s more surprising when these networks tell the truth than when they lie. At least regarding anything political or something potentially effecting politics. So, to them, everything is great when democrats are in charge and everything is terrible when republicans are in charge. No wonder, in their mind, the only explanation for Kamala’s loss was the general electorate doesn’t know the truth. They’ve been lied to.
The moment Trump takes office he’ll remember these facts: food affordability worst in 30 years, home affordability worst in 40 years, household debt up savings down, 401K hardship withdrawals up, car loan delinquencies for low income people worst ever, food bank demand highest ever, people working multiple jobs up.
In other words, “The beatings will continue until morale improves.”
I don’t know how other people feel but I go ballistic when I get gaslit
Hi Mish. C’mon man. Everyone knows that Michael Madigan and Alderman Burke in Chicago went door to door in the wards to get out the +15,000,000 votes for the Ds in 2020 but they were foolishly cast aside prior to 2024. Got a lot of old ladies to help out after bingo without computers. No Joke!
LOL, blames media for Harris loss?? They did everything they. could to help her win. Harvard also cancelled classes after Trump won. Harvard is a failed, crooked, cheating school run by bigots. It’s not surprising they’re out of touch.
What he meant was the uncensored media, not the old style that was used to make up news for general consumption.
“When you’ve lost Lester Holt, you’ve lost the country”.
Opinion: I guess Trump won because Democrats forgot to cheat. Oops!
They didn’t forget to cheat. They couldn’t because this time the republicans had 100,000 poll watchers and lawyers making sure that it couldn’t happen again. In 2020 they didn’t have them. Notice that this time we had no sudden bump up in votes in the middle of the night for Harris.
It also would have been much less believable when republicans cast as many early ballots as democrats. They would have had to state a bunch of early voting republicans voted for Kamala.
Sexy Rexy lives in the friendly confines of the Downers Grove neighborhood of Chicago. Joan Esposito in Winnetka neighborhood of Chicago. Neil Steinberg in Northbrook neighborhood of Chicago. Eric Zorn in the Evanston neighborhood of Chicago. None actually live in the city; not by a longshot.
Downers Grove is a suburb of Chicago, not a neighborhood in the city. So are all the other “neighborhoods” you mentioned.
Thanks for picking that up! Instead of the italics I will use /s at the end, just for you, as the part saying “none of these actually live in the city” was apparently written in disappearing ink.
Lynn Sweet of Slum-Times lives in DC, no joke!
“Academic clowns sit in their ivory towers telling people how good they should feel.”
That really sums it up. These arrogant, conceited and smug morons will just never learn.
One of many priorities in our society is to transform our schools from leftist indoctrination centers back into genuine places of education and learning.
If the left doesn’t figure out their propoganda doesn’t work they’ll just keep digging their hole. I guess they can’t resist, seems to be the nature of the beast.
One truth from Jason here in his tweet … we are the best among the worst … keep an eye on Germany.
The macroeconomy is strong–high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation–the best of any advanced economy.
For all of its democratic niceties, Germany’s Weimar constitution lasted less than 14 years, during which time millions of Germans lost their life savings in the currency collapse and then their jobs in the Great Depression. Trump has his work cut out for him.
For past 16 years, the Elite got ahead by wrapping leftist ideas within academic mumbo-jumbo… gather congratulations from within the echo-chamber…then wonder why they are ignored by the masses while thinking the masses are too stupid.
We had bank bailouts, QE, lockdowns … all at behest of Elites. Will anything change?
Economists have always been egg-headed; CEOs were once pragmatic … in field afar from gov’t handouts/regs (so not banking, insurance, tech – due to Sec 230, health/phara), you still find some gems like Bernard Marcus (Home Depot recently passed). As we see, >50% of the market cap is in bed with the gov’t.
A Harvard indoctrinator blames the media, which was in the tank for Harris, for Harris’s loss. Over 90% of the stories were said to be negative toward Trump and upper 70’s positive toward Harris.
One of the best articles in a while. Thanks, Mish! The Perkins graph is fantastic.
And you only have two choices to make housing prices fall:
Recession or higher for WAY longer than anyone thinks is possible
If the Fed / bond market lets the 10Y fall far enough, housing’s slow & gradual price declines are going evaporate into more prices increases. The Fed should not have lowered the FFR anymore than 25-basis points at this point.
Why have they don’t 75? Because they’re trying to force short-term rates lower which will should drag short-term bond yields lower so they egregious borrowing can continue unabated. They’re fine with 3% core inflation.
You can also build low income housing. No existing home owners want low income housing built near them because it will most likely lower the value of their home. They would prefer nothing new is built near them and if something is built, they prefer it costs a lot more than their home is worth.
It must be my perception that is way off, I thought the media did a ‘fabulous’ job of making Biden-Harris look great, and Trump look awful. In fact, I was worried about wholesale brain washing by the MSM. Short of outright lying, there wasn’t much more they could do to assist the incumbent’s substitute avoid obvious mediocrity
To diverge from regurgitation… I read an interesting position ‘paper’ put forth by Chris Hedges (and guest) this morning. The World According to Trump concerned a much greater US involvement with Israel in attacking Iran. His bias is obvious, however the point was well made, no matter which side you support.
20 years ago as a jr engineer making 45k, the whole office went out to a sit-down restaurant 5 days a week for lunch. Now, in an office with everyone making between 160-180k we sit in our cubicles talking about how to save money with leftovers.
And 20 years from now you’ll be earning $300k and going out to the street corner to panhandle for lunch or maybe eating your pet if that doesn’t pan out (pun intended).
“It’s turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
Bring in a bag of White Castle hamburgers and wait for Karen from HR to appear.
The reason inflation got such traction with the electorate isn’t just that it makes it harder for regular people to get by. It’s also the fact that the rapid jump in inflation to 9% scared the shit out of a lot of people who saw that their plans for the future might be in jeopardy. Both parties have been complicit in outrageous deficit spending, but “inflating our way out” is an obvious faux-solution that will leave people unable to afford $30 loaves of bread. The democrat party and its philosophical luminaries (like Paul Krugman, Robert Reich) have long been vocally dismissive of concerns about inflation and deficits. Republicans have at least pretended to care about those. You might think that voters don’t get that deep in their analysis, but I think they’ve learned that the democrat party has no problem with throwing money at things. Republicans did that too with their stupid wars, but the Dems have now taken over that position (see Ukraine).
Up until recently, inflation wasn’t an issue. So the FED cut rates to near 0. They felt deflation was the bigger threat. But now, I think the FED has to keep rates up. They may make a few token 1/4 pt cuts like they did yesterday, but I don’t see rates ever dropping below 3%. Inflation can quickly spiral out of control. Once prices start going up, everyone has to start raising prices to compensate. This forces the government to pay a lot more interest. And as more and more debt matures and rolls over at higher rates, the interest payments will keep going up. So now, deficits are a much bigger deal. We’re at a critical point right now. If we don’t cut the deficit way down, we’re likely going to see a parabolic rise in the national debt.
Mental illness is real, its a product of self delusion. Those who live in an echo chamber have their brains in a condition that cannot think, but only respond to the continuing echoes.
Harvard and the elite machine is just as susceptible to mental illness as homeless meth heads, the problem is there is no one sane left in their circles to tell them they are delusional.
the smartphone creates a network of self reinforcement of delusion, daily through clicks, likes and other brain chemistry manipulation originally designed to promote silicon valley companies and products, now a proven propaganda scheme via the money it has generated. Yes it works and it works very well it has created billionaires and fools, and the ratios is way more fools than billionaires. One is the creator of this madnes, the others are the receivers of this madness. Immersed in it 24/7, it is a mental illness machine and the results are all around us.
People like Furman, Silver, legacy media, etc. are being marginalized. The process can’t happen soon enough.
Economics is about the rates-of-change in the flow-of-funds. It’s stock vs. flow. The economy has been run in reverse since the late 1950’s. Since that time the FED’s Ph.Ds. have learned their catechisms. The Fed’s technical staff doesn’t know a debit from a credit. The error is the Keynesian macro-economic persuasion that maintains a bank is a financial intermediary. Monetarism has never been tried.
the FRB-STL also has the right idea:
https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/06/02/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements.pdf
I understand; I wish I still lived in the 50s too before our economy got all screwed up
Back then, GDP growth was understandable. We made more stuff. Now it’s based on intangibles. Somehow the Chinese make way more stuff then we do, but our GDP is bigger.
I don’t want to go back to the 1950’s when my standard of living was much lower.
The US massive debt is a lower standard of living earthquake primed to hit. Tptb have been trying to stave off the recession or depression with deficit spending and money printing but thats only making the inevitible reckoning worse. So the 50s might not end up being bad in comparison.
Awe shucks, that was my favorite part of Back To The Future.
Richard D. Wolff & Michael Hudson: Trump Returns! Empire in Decline!one day Mexico will need a taller wall to keep Americans out
Mr. Hudson, Kindly permit me to salute you sir . Live long and prosper. This old codger recognizes your brilliance!! https://www.youtube.com/live/i7iGPm0vloA .
Why did Harris lose? 1 man/woman, 1 vote. All those Red counties in “flyover country” had equal voice to the nattering nabobs.
And, regarding the 11 million or whatever number of disappeared Democrat voters, we would need an audit of every county’s election department, counting population in 2020, registered voters (both parties), actual votes, who voted, who counted the votes, where the voting records are right now. And then compare these number to the 2016 and 2924 numbers.
Those records were destroyed soon after the election to prevent an audit trail.
There’s no point now. Better to make cheating as difficult as possible. Would need to be implemented at the federal level. Democratic controlled states don’t like requiring ID to vote. Wonder why.
Trump will be allowing people to do what is right for themselves by their own choice. That is what creates a positive economy.
What is getting left behind are all those petty little creatures who decided they know what is best for everyone else. Furman being one of these types.
…except for The Enemy Within.
You guys are so dumb.
sounds liberal to me “people will be able to do whatever they want to do”
… as long as that involves going to church, having sex only for reproduction, and wearing approved clothing.
That neo marxist doctrine you live by, State control over everyone just got shredded.
Deal with it asshole.
You don’t know what you’re talking about, and you look like an idiot. Thanks for clearing that up.
Trump just getting started. 10 point plan to disassemble deep state just an opening salvo.
As had been said “fuck around and find out”
Mish – let’s not forget a large portion of majority of living costs (and food shrinkage) are not shown in your charts. Cumulative inflation is through the roof. This Harvard professor is an idiot.
Like many Democrats, he is in denial. They see the fault lying not with themselves but with the people who somehow couldn’t understand that they are much better off now than four years ago.
Albert Einstein once said that:
These kinda of reactions were 100% guaranteed to happen. Out of touch people are a dime a dozen these days. Best to ignore them.
I think it is okay to examine this kind of thing. It just shows that highly educated and credentialed people with mountains of evidence and data can be in just as much denial as someone mentally unhinged chopping their d*ck off for attention.
Why? It’s clear alot of people are in denial. That is to say they are unconscious. Thier ego runs the show. The same thing would have happened with people on the right had Trump lost. Self reflection is very very difficult for most people since the vast majority of people live in an unconvous thought stream. When someone identifies with thier ideology and they turn out to be wrong that’s the equivalent of death to their ego. It manifests as an actual threat to thier existence, at least in thier mind it does. To protect themselves they go into a state of deep denial and attempt to explain what happened away by blaming others or a greater conspiracy. A similar thing happened in 2020 with all of the election conspiracy BS.
Bottom line is that Harris lost because she was a shitty candidate with a shitty out of touch message. So was Trump in my view, but all’s that mattered was that Trump was less shitty than Harris. In that he succeeded.
If the Democrats want to win elections the 1st thing they should do is acknowledge and take accountability for the loss, 2) understand why they lost, and 3) figure out a way to correct thier mistake. I’d say the same thing to Republicans if they would have lost. Whining and finger pointing never moves the ball closer to the end zone. It just guarantees that one will continue to make the same mistakes over and over.
Most people are single issue voters. This is because it is difficult for most to consider multiple inputs and reduce these inputs to a single action point.
For example, on the news this AM, I heard a Hispanic guy say that he hated the things that Trump said BUT he liked how the economy worked when Trump was last President, so he voted for Trump [lol].
I wonder if anyone can come up with an IQ breakout that shows who voted for each candidate?
I would wager that average and less IQ voters went for Trump (unless they were black woman) and the opposite went to Harris. This is a broad stroke statement.
There should be a requirement for IQ tests and a minimum achievement score of 100 (or possibly higher) to be allowed to vote. .
The masses are not capable of voting intelligently.
People with TDS already have a deficit when it comes to intelligence.
This isn’t rocket Science . . . these people are out of touch . . . they don’t live in Reality . . . As Carville once said . . . It’s the Economy Stupid . . . and it still is . . .
Did the Harvard professor happen to mention the 11 million Democrat voters that vanished into thin air ? Where did they go ? Where are they ? I can guarantee that when the totals are closed there are and army of analyst and mathmatic experts that are going to deep dive into this and hard questions are coming . Even though some people don’t want to talk about the elephant standing in the room . Did the Harvard professor elaborate on how Biden was so much more effective getting the message out secluded in his basement with a mask on than the other two that had campaigns out in the open ?
Where did they go? They’re dead. Of course, they were also dead in 2020.
11 million voters didn’t vote Democrat compared to 2020…. So what? Trump lost votes too. Why did they both lose votes in 2024? 1)People wanted the nightmare of Covid to end so voters turned out in the hopes that one of the two idiots running n 2020 would end it. 2)Both candidates in 2024 suck, it’s just that Harris sucked.more than Trump (no pun intended). Recall that Harris got her ass handed to her in the 2020 primaries. Like Hillary, she just isn’t likable. Had the Democrats picked a more traditional populous candidate and tweaked thier message accordingly, then I believe Trump would have lost.
Stop with conspiracy innuendos. There was no vote conspiracy in 2020. If there was, then why did they allow Trump to win in 2024? I guess the “deep state” is just getting sloppy with allowing Trump to win this time.
Sorry man, you won’t be able to hand-wave this away. Those 11 million didn’t just not vote Democrat they didn’t vote at all. They never voted before 2020 either.
Evidence? And why was Trump allowed to win this time and why did Trump also receive less votes?
Hunters laptop is Russian disinformation , 51 democrat leaders signed a letter saying so and thousands of people got taken off of social media for spreading it so if i was you I would go watch some Russia Collusion reruns there are thousands of hours of them .
What does that have to do with fraudulent votes for Biden? You’re not making any sense. Either there was some vast conspiracy of people working behind the scenes to conjure up fraudulent votes for Biden or thier wasn’t. I haven’t any evidence that would suggest that. So again where is your evidence?
No blood of 800,000 dead Ukrainians on my hands, buddy.
Trumps vote total will likely exceed his vote total from 2020 when everything is counted or be very close . People like you just blurt out crap that is false . Harris will be 10-11 million less .
Same reason a C- student doesn’t copy every x-choice answer from the A+ student sitting in front of him in 2020.
Or when the punks in a neighborhood egg (rotten) multiple houses in their neighborhood and throw a few fresh at their own.
They trashed more of his votes this time. No need for midnight trucks from NY/NJ to Philly for that trick.
“Conspiracy theories” are birthed in a vacuum of information. However, with Trump winning, and given other priorities, will the 2020 get any serious review?
Hard questions and data digging are needed. Public records show who voted. Do these people exist? Are they alive? Are they citizens?
I can believe it is a simple case of DNDK … “both candidates suck”. COVID plus the Anti-Incumbent riots / protests glued America to the TV and drove people to vote.
Remember Big Phara withheld vax news until after the election … and ya all wonder why we have conspiracy theories?
This chart needs updating … current vote is 73M vs 69M (T v K).
https://howtosavetheworld.ca/images/popular-vote-us-election.jpg
Here’s some commentary on the misleading ZH bar-graph:
https://www.allsides.com/blog/misinformation-watch-misleading-election-vote-gap-theory-goes-viral
Lots of votes still to count …
Thanks for your research, or at least reading of other takes. And I know you already know this, but few will care here.
The ‘why’ the vote may be different (and the statistic analysis behind that) matters to very few on this site
How about this one: the 15,000,000 D voters in 2020 were double-vaxxed and triple-boosted prior to 2024.
Its a comment section to a blog that Mish is trying to say a professor blaming the economics of people and the media perception ect. How silly you and him are the crux of the election is that 11 million democratic voters disapeared and your response proves you are out of touch with reallity were did the voters go and from what group and what counties ect. Trumps numbers were up slightly but still way less than Biden of 2020 . Trumps numbers can be statistacly explained within reason but 11 million no shows from one presidential election to the other ? Doubt there is any example of that happening in history .
It’s “you and he” not you and him.
Him is rarely doing or being anything.
A “traditional populous candidate”? What the hell is that and could you give us an example.
Bill Clinton, Obama, LBJ
They all campaigned on helping the average working Joe. In reality results varied, and many would suggest they hurt working class folks (myself included).
By law the election counting process has to be public and observed by representatives of all parties. In 2020 this wasn’t observed in many places in swing states. Observers were turned away and not allowed to enter to observe the process, especially in key areas. This time the RNC sent 100,000 observers plus an army of lawyers so each time they tried to block the observations, they were there with court orders to force them to follow the law.
The result was that cheating was impossible this time around. There were too many eyes.
Thanks for the information. What law specific is this you’re referring to?
Each state has their own laws regarding poll watchers with some variation but none forbid poll watchers. Some require training and some don’t. Some let them talk to voters and some not. In the 2020 election in some areas poll watchers were not let in or were kicked out and so forth.
Here is a good rundown by state:
Election_Observation_0.pdf
Yeah, that’s what I thought – a myriad of different laws in different places (imagine that in a republic)
So now can you cite the specific “many places in swing states” where this was not followed legally in 2020? Who got fined? Fired? Or ended up in jail for these transgressions of the law?
Because everyplace I look for evidence or court rulings of these ‘illegal’ forbidding of poll watchers does not exist. God knows I could be looking in the wrong places but I’d appreciate you pointing me to this evidence so I can share with others. Thanks
Lol…..
Your lack of rebuttal doesn’t surprise me. You have nothing to say.
He was “allowed” to win because the 2 assassination attempts (that we know of) failed.
Actuarialy speaking of course, make sure you don’t get hit by lightening the next 3 times you walk around the block.
My guess is there was ballot box stuffing on both sides, but the democrats were able to stuff a lot more ballots. Why not have much stricter voting laws to prevent this going forward?
“Like Hillary, she just isn’t likable.”
Truth! There were stories circulating that close to 100% of Harris WH staff had left her employ due to friction with her. I believe similar stories exist for when she was a CA prosecutor. She has been known as a real bit*ch.
The media buried these stories.
In the polling / counting locations it’s easier physically and from a legal liability perspective to trash the other guys votes than create fictitious votes/counts.
RIIIIIIIIGGGGGEEEEEDDD!
Hey, you’re coming around!
Indeed. I understand now that if MY candidate loses, it’s rigged.
Such brilliant insights from the mouths of morons.
Yup, that’s where I’m at.
The rigged conspiracy will never die. If a republican ever loses again the reason will not be because he/she was a crappy candidate or had a crappy policy platform. It’s always someone else’s fault in modern America. Republicans are turning into just as big of whiners as Democrats.
And I’m sure if Trump doesn’t deliver on some major policy he campaigned on it will be because the Democrats or the deep state got in this way. All self fulfilling prophecies aren’t they? I’m convinced people really want a dictator so long as its their dictator.
A dictator belongs only to those that smooch his posterior, and even they can be gone on a whim.
Election anomalies have to be assessed individually. Believing that dispositive fraud likely occurred in one election doesn’t require believing it about any other election. There is fraud in EVERY national election. It’s a question of degree. In the 2020 presidential election, we saw multiple precincts in Maricopa County suffer simultaneous Election Day machine outages, election workers in Georgia sent home due to a purported water main break that didn’t happen, viewing windows in Michigan covered up, signature match machines (for mail-in ballots) in Nevada being set such that the error rate was only 10% that of the 2016 rate, and in Pennsylvania, a specific order from Justice Alito to segregate in-person ballots from mail-in ballots was disregarded, with the ballots being comingled. This was on top of the fact that the manner of the election was changed in many states not by the state legislatures – as required by the US Constitution – but by executive edict or by the secretaries of state to allow such things as “Zuckerboxes”.
– Blames Media for Harris Loss…
I have been saying it for Years! They continue to prove me Correct, time and time again!! If there were ever “A Time” for “Self Reflection” man are we there!!!
They refuse to look inward and continue to look for blame, and mostly at this point it must be at one another, as the Country overwhelmingly disagrees massively with the direction “They Chose”
So today it’s the “Media” (their very own modern day brown shirts), and yesterday, I think it was “Single White Woman” and “Biden” too I think it was. Tomorrow it will be a couple of the baseless lawsuit Actor’s, and after that, anyone they think wasn’t left enough, loud enough, create havoc enough, and ALL the lawyers that didn’t Prosecute Well Enough of course will be heard about shortly as well… Crazy Stupid!
Wages might have risen faster than price increases as that ivory tower professor claims but you can still be worse off. If my groceries etc bill is up by $100/week and my wage is up by $110/week then am I better off as that $110 rise is subject to income tax at my marginal rate. Say for example my marginal rate is 20% then the tax man will take $22 of that $110 so now i’m left with only $88 to pay for that $100 more in bills. In a year I’m down $624 so now I’m one of the millions who can’t come up with the cash to pay an unexpected bill (car repair, medical, dental, storm damage).
Dental yes! I just saw 4K go Poof!!
You were lucky. My bridge ran 7k.
Did you get an implant? Mine cost closer to $6k and it was done 5 years ago.
My personal Onion Index; 2020, $0.69/lb. Last week, $1.49/lb.
The price of flat screen TVs may well have come down, and I can buy a faster computer for the same money, but I’m not in the market for either of those.
I am working on a secret technology that will make big screen TVs and smartphones edible and nourishing. It may be our only salvation.
I hear they can do the same thing with underwear. It’s big in Japan.
As long as your marginal tax rate doesn’t change, your 10% income raise (post tax) covers a 10% increase in prices.
Your savings is eroded by inflation … the 10% gain on $100 of savings is taxed at say 30% combined so you lose 3% of purchasing power.
No time this morning to provide more details….try it or vote up/down.
The media specialty is lies, misinformation, and propaganda. When media polls showed a tight race we all laughed. The election confirmed the media have no integrity and no credibility. Pull the plug on your television. Do no waste money on NYTimes, KPBS, WaPo, WSJ, LaTimes, AP, Reuters, CBS, CNBC, ABC, BBC….
TV pulled the plug on me. No OTA broadcasts here after the switch to digital, nor is cable available here, and Dish got greedy so I did pull that plug.
Wow! You must be in a valley or farmland.
You checked
?
https://www.channelmaster.com/pages/free-tv-channels-by-state
“No Channels are predicted to be available from this address/zip code.”
Nice link though. This is farm country and I looked up the nearest town.
We also ditched cable. We only have Roku and streaming. I enjoy the podcasts on Rumble. The only station I miss is Fox Business. No need to pay for MSM bs.
Get yourself an Amazon Firestick and learn how to program it. You’d be amazed at how much programming you could have access to for free.
You don’t have internet? How are you posting here?
Have you not heard of YouTube TV, Hulu + Live, etc.?
You can easily sway the results by over sampling one side. The left leaning pollsters will poll more democrats than republicans. Why would they do that? 2 reasons. One is people are more likely to contribute to a candidate that is favored to win. The other is undecided voters will tend to lean toward the favored candidate, Thinking they must be better if more people are voting for them.
Because knowledge will seep into your head from your dreams?
Furman is a bubble person. Most economics is in a bubble. Fancy models, ooooh! Simple math, misconstrued, linearly extrapolated. I read Mish because Mish understands markets and the disconnects between economics as propaganda, economic data portrayed as reality, the dangers of linear extrapolation of economic series where time lags and disconnects are rampant and can be manipulated, etc.etc. And then how markets and MSM work to push all of it into a swirling cauldron.
Academia needs to hit the bricks and look up &around from their expensive iphones, to see what everyday looks like for most people. It isn’t pretty.
As someone who grew up in NYS but now lives in the Midwest , this was also a referendum on attitudes towards the East and West coast elites. It’s having people like Biden’s health secretary in a position of authority. People are tired of being told who to hire, who to hangout with, what to think, etc. I’ve often said that one of the major news networks should move to Louisville or Dayton and their reporting would be more in line with the middle America . I know many a person that didn’t like Trump but they were not voting for Harris at any cost
Like NPR, studios in DC and LA. Nationwide my ass.
What amazes me is how so many of these incredibly smart people cannot see their own bias has crept into their supposedly “objective” views. TikTok is full of smug, academics telling conservatives on Election Day how much of a blowout was about to take place, based on fantasies that could only exist in their minds.
Incredibly smart people. Like Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius.
TDS is in fact a psychosis that acts exactly like a virus. It simply as the witnessed in the past writings here and virtually everywhere else, infects minds full of hate, fear, doubt envy and jealousy over Trump. They never seem to get over it and instead grift off of him in their truthfully sophomoric analysis and opinions and ultimately to their dismay because such misunderstood hubris become irrelevant. TDS now MDS etc. Elon’s robots will have an amazing way to peacefully yet effectively treat this and it ain’t no joke. The retribution and cure is success but because they measure and compare themselves and their go-to guy and gal to Trump they virtually always end up having their pride get the best of him and look up another way to play gotcha-goon. What a hoot this author and all other Democrats are who have yet to leave their party. Their pride precludes them from understanding it left them long ago after being hijacked by the authors they made the mistake of looking up to and relying on for critical thought. Typos compliments of getting back to just making over a million since Tuesday’s glorious win and profiting off of it without looking or considering any poll or writer’s belief that they matter:-)
in a REAL democracy, convicted criminals would not be allowed to run a country.
tried to edit previous reply of mine but had to attend to premkt trades so it timed out. Well, most will hopefully make the connection and get the point. Cheers..
They are smart enough to see where their research funding comes from…
These people live in iron lungs. They have no idea what the world is like off campus.
“Please check it out and tell me where I went wrong.”
You aren’t wrong Mish, the only thing missing is how will Trump/GOP fix all the things you listed? How will Trump lower mortgage rates? By browbeating the Fed or changing them all out? Is it going to be a good thing to set rates to zero? Won’t that bring inflation roaring back up?
How are tariffs going to help? If Biden kept Trump’s tariffs and it didn’t magically fix everything then how will adding more tariffs help?
How are housing prices going to go down?? The theory is “deport illegals” and housing prices will fall, what if that fails?
As a real estate owner that rents out units, I have no intention of lowering my rent rates because property taxes, insurance and maintenance expenses all keep going up so unless Trump plans on imposing rent controls, I don’t see how Trump will help that either.
– How will Trump lower mortgage rates? > It’s not Trumps Job to do so. It’s Free Markets, which act according to what’s truly occurring. Many, many people are still Buying, so rates will stay elevated.
– By browbeating the Fed? > The Fed is Independent (will be again now anyway), and act accordingly when Not told what to do.
– Is it going to be a good thing to set rates to zero? > Depends on so many things, and specifically when and why… never really a good thing, and when you think it is, it’s only because it had to be done for relief, so it feels good.
– If Biden kept Trump’s tariffs and it didn’t magically fix everything then how will adding more tariffs help? > Depends on what, when, for how long, what Countries, how high etc.?
– How are housing prices going to go down?? The theory is “deport illegals” and housing prices will fall, what if that fails? > Dumb theory! See your first questions answer… has absolutely nothing to do with illegals, but Everything to do with Policies!
– As a real estate owner that rents out units, I have no intention of lowering my rent rates because property taxes, insurance and maintenance expenses all keep going up so unless > Or until you can’t find someone to rent it out to. The Market will dictate that, and not you.
– Trump plans on imposing rent controls, > Will NEVER HAPPEN!
Hmm, I don’t believe Mish said that Trump would fix… anything.
If you look closely (timeline) at the graph, you will see why folks are pissed.
Mish provided a laundry list of “grievances” that caused dems to loose. Okay, dems lost, people voted for Trump, what’s next then?
If Trump doesn’t fix anything then we’re right back to square one and you will be repeating this again in 4 years.
None of this impacts me, I’m well off and taking a lifeboat elsewhere so it’s really an academic exercise for me at this point.
There is a new captain on the Titanic, people are cheering, and I’m wondering why.
All the icebergs will melt due to global warming before this Titanic can hit one?
Property taxes? Go complain at your local school board meeting, count to 10, and gestapos will escort you to the parking lot. Nothing to do with Trump.