The Trump administration takes another smack at freedom of speech. 
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
That question spawned nonsense from Kevin Hassett, White House economic advisor, and also CNBC in an interview.
Please consider Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? by the New York Fed.
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.
In the chart
below[lead chart] , we plot U.S. import tariffs by month in 2025. The blue dots depict the average statutory tariff rate, weighted by 2024 annual import values. The red dots show the average duty rate by month, calculated as total duties collected divided by the value of total imports. The average tariff rate was very low at the beginning of the year, at 2.6 percent. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points in mid-May. By the end of the year, the average tariff rate was 13 percent.The average duty rate is lower than the average tariff rate because of the many exemptions granted. For example, although the U.S. levies a 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports, 83 percent of those imports are exempt from U.S. duties under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). A second reason for the lower average duties is that importers shift away from high-tariffed goods. The difference between the statutory rate and the duty rate peaked in April and May, when importers shifted away from Chinese imports in order to avoid the higher tariffs levied on Chinese goods.
Who Bears the Cost of Tariffs?
Tariff incidence is the technical term for how the costs of a tariff are split between foreign exporters and domestic importers. While importers pay the duty, the “economic burden” of the tariff can be shifted onto exporters if they lower their export prices.
In this analysis, we also allow the pass-through to change for different months in 2025. Our results show that the bulk of the tariff incidence continues to fall on U.S. firms and consumers. These findings are consistent with two other studies that report high pass-through of tariffs to U.S. import prices.
We highlight two main results. First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. This result means that a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices. Second, the tariff pass-through into import prices has declined in the latter part of the year. That is, a larger share of the tariff incidence was borne by foreign exporters by the end of the year. In November, a 10 percent tariff was associated with a 1.4 percent decline in foreign export prices, suggesting an 86 percent pass-through to U.S. import prices. Given that the average tariff in December was 13 percent (see the first chart), our results imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11 percent (13 times 0.86) more than those for goods not subject to tariffs. These higher import prices caused firms to reorganize supply chains, as suggested by the findings presented in the two charts above.
In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.
Hassett and CNBC Nonsense
The insane part of the above clip is Hassett seeks to “discipline” a body for writing a paper that Trump doesn’t like.
Ironically, the report’s conclusion matches the vast majority of economic evidence on tariffs.
Hassett Needs a Spanking
Not only does Hassett need a spanking, so does the CNBC anchor.
Discipline Who
Excuse Me for Asking But Where Would Refunds Go?
Hassett Has No Problem Working With Pedophile Protectors
Stupid Is as Stupid Does
Trump and the administration sycophants are entitled to their own opinions but not their own facts.
Q: OK Where Is the tariff-related Inflation?
A: Wrong question
A falling rate of inflation does not imply no tariff impact. That’s a key point that no one other writer that I am aware of has addressed.
What would inflation have been in the absence of tariffs?
That’s a much better question, but of course impossible to state accurately. However, we can say lower.
Also, please note the lead chart. Trump started off with 50 percent reciprocal tariffs and escalated to 100 percent on some countries before numerous TACOs and other carveouts.
The average duty rate, is not 50 percent or even 18 percent. It’s about 8.5 percent.
Companies front ran those tariffs with massive pre-tariff imports. Those stockpiles enabled corporations to hold pat on hikes for months.
Then various TACOs lowered tariffs to 12 percent with duties still lower.
In 2025 some companies ate part of that with lower profits. The study stated “We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.”
It did not apportion the portion companies ate. In 2025 I suspect it was significant. But that won’t last forever. Indeed, it’s likely the honeymoon is already over.
The Tariff Delay Is Now Over, Companies Start Hiking Prices Again
On February 16, I noted The Tariff Delay Is Now Over, Companies Start Hiking Prices Again
Hello consumers, expect higher prices in the high single digits on many items.
On February 17, I noted Medical Care Costs Surge. What’s the Inflation Impact on PCE and CPI?
I expect a 10 percent jump in health care services. More for knock-on impacts.
So, your respite from price hikes is now over unless we have a big recession that collapses jobs and reduces demand. I certainly don’t rule that out.
And lost in the nonsense from Hassett is the fact that tariffs may (or many not) help protected industries, on net, tariffs cost jobs.
You can see the results directly in manufacturing.
On February 4, I noted Manufacturing Recovery? ADP Says Manufacturing Jobs Down 22 Straight Months
There is no manufacturing recovery.
On February 2, the ISM report revealed Manufacturing Employment Has Been Negative for 28 Months.
Tariffs were supposed to create jobs. They didn’t and won’t. But they did raise costs born by importers and consumers.
Consumers will take a bigger hit in 2026 unless there is a big collapse in demand.
Regardless, everyone should be disturbed by the administration’s blatant attack on free speech.
Doesn’t Hassett have any shame spouting such nonsense?
Why does everyone think it’s ok to cut into corporate profits? Profit is the company’s incentive to do business. If you reduce profits with tariffs, companies on the margin will close, and other companies have less incentive to continue doing business. Alternatively, they can pass the cost on to customers, but neither is desirable.
It is not desirable for the industrial capacity of the U.S. to be hollowed out, such that much of our supply chain begins in China, with the potential rising for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and the U.S. supporting Taiwan.
The thing about cycles is that they are unsustainable. Booms lead to busts. Globalism leads to nationalism. So called free trade leads to protectionism. The cover story on forming the EU, was to prevent another European war. EU military leaders are now telling their people to accept another European war.
Ray Dalio just tweeted that the U.S. is in stage 6 of empires.
You read it here first:
The POS formerly known as Prince Andrew has been arrested in connection with Epstein, Perhaps now the US can start arresting and prosecuting its own lowlife connected to this individual.
Tragically, Prince Andrew was found dead in his prison cell from self inflicted hanging.
Oh wait, that’s not supposed to be published until later. Shhhh….don’t tell anyone.
Which is it Mish? Is inflation money supply plus credit marked to market or is it prices? You cant keep changing your definitions to fit your narrative. How do tariffs affect money supply?
But we knew all along that tariffs will be paid by the consumer. That’s the whole idea, and that’s the purpose of any tax: to reduce consumption by punishing it, in this case being a targeted reduction. It’s not the first administration that gaslights like that (nor the last), I just thought they would have the balls to not deny the policy goal.
I still think that imposing manufacturing standards on imported products would be more effective than tariffs, but when the govt. desperately needs money, they’ll go after the money…
A very similar thing on a smaller scale is now happening in NY: “I can’t really tax the rich, so I will pretend it’s the State’s fault, so I can just tax everyone“. Trump is doing the same with different tools and vocabulary.
Tariffs are collected by US Customs.
They are paid by to US Customs by “The US Importer of Record”.
US Customs uses a TIN (Taxpayer Identification Number) or a CBP assigned number to track payments for each entity that pays tariffs going back to 1997. This allows tracking for missed payments and refunds going back to 1997.
As such, they can tell you how much anyone (such as Ford, or GM) has paid in tariffs since 1997 to the penny.
And if “China” paid tariffs to US Customs, they can tell you how much China has paid to the penny.
If Trump says that China (or any other country) pays tariffs, Customs can easily provide the data for how much they have paid to prove it.
Perchance does it tell exactly where Ford and GM got the dollars to pay those tariffs?
Only a pedophile would defend a pedophile.
Yes, he all but openly admitted to KNOWING WHAT THE F was going on with Epstein and Hassett likely invited him along for the “ride.”
He deserves a caning, not a spanking
Meanwhile and OT… Silver inventories at the CME fell another 3.4 million ounces today to 88.7 million ounces. Down 8 million in only two days during a non-delivery month.
This only eight days from first notice day for the March contract where over 340 million ounces of contracts need to be sold, rolled or they stand for delivery.
Fun time for the game of musical chairs.
Comex raised margins in at least Silver twice recently.PMs rally will start again as USFR has increased Liquidity in the system recently.
Actually, margins at the COMEX have been raised six times in the last month. This is how they managed to (temporarily) crush the price. Next week the Chinese Lunar New Year closure of their futures markets ends and price discovery resumes. This is right in front of US silver futures expiry for March.
Interesting times ahead!
😉
It is quite normal for Comex to change margin requirements when prices are volatile since they are the guarantor of the contract payment. It has happened in the past and it will happen in the future. When someone purchases physical they don’t get to only pay 18% of the value of the silver.
Comex inventories are basically higher than any time in the last ten years except a brief period in 2021 and the pre-tariff jump. See https://datatrack.trendforce.com/Chart/content/1545/comex-inventory-silver
That Joe Kernan clown at CNBC wants desperately to join the Trump administration like Larry Kudlow did. The way he brown noses the Trump sycophants is rather disgusting.
Giving Hassett time on air to bloviate on this is absurd. What happened to responsible journalism?
I don’t know if I consider a study by the Fed as free speech as much as I would consider it academic research. Either way punishing results that you don’t like is the quickest way to fail. The only way that punishment is deserved would be if the study authors deliberately falsified the data or deliberately designed the research to produce false results. Just plain poor academic research is enough to keep them from any further academic positions and causes professional embarrassment, a condition that Trump is unable to even recognize.
Just another Trump creep.
In Trump world it’s a competition to see who can get their head the furthest up Trump’s ass. The US is now at about the same level as Zaire when it was ruled by Mobutu. Looting the country is now the main occupation of Trump and his cabal.
Wouldn’t this be a very typical Trump’ish Move?
Trump is free to remove Hassett at any time. Hassett appears to be low hanging fruit, meaning expendable, but a longtime associate/friend one could say, so tied in deep. The Dems need something to eat, as they are getting Hungry after a few recent losses one could argue.
The President could potentially have Hassett, His longtime Friend, announce His Retirement now, but for 2028 (or sooner wink,wink). A win and blow to Trump and His Administration, nonetheless.
Around the same time Have it leave an open sore on the administration’s agenda. Find something Tariff related that’s worth tossing, and also noticeable. This may show as a controversial issue, and also yet another sign of weakness. Big picture worthy for the small losses…
Now Reset Your Agenda “Biggly” with a massive announcement, bring the Ballroom (if completed enough?) Into Play!!! Make some (Real) changes in your Administration (older players), for much Younger future considerations. Announce your Top 5-10 Agenda Items, YOU Expect to see occur within your Administration and within the “Time Frame” that you have, but to be carried Forward as the Responsibility of the New Administration, with there twist to it.
Just looking ahead to what could be perhaps, or maybe the Dems “Crush It” in the Mid-Terms. We could have a bumpy ride with a one term president in play. Just trying to figure out some of the recent dumb a&$ moves by this administration, and how they won’t help, so they will have to do something, and Big and Doable IMO! Time to hand it over…
Well maybe all the ceos think trumps ability to push them around is waning. The weaker trump becomes the more people will fall upon his political neck so to speak. The more desperate he will become.
As far as tariffs go i dont think its helped the debt at all.
I dont expect the far right to change their ways. I do hope the independents and moderate republican voters remember this is pretty much what the republican party is about. I mean trump is a junk show but his policies are pretty much standard republican campaign promises. The only difference is republicans in congress are held in check by the dems. Trump just by passes congress with exe orders and all the hassles they have to explain to the voters.
Maybe everyone can shape a new republican and dem party where everyone’s fighting for the middle.
Wouldn’t that be great to see! Working together has not seemed to be a strong suit for either party, but it would be nice, and for a “Common Goal”
If the New York Fed’s analysis is flawed, the appropriate response is a detailed rebuttal, not a call for discipline.
Disagree with the conclusions by all means, but publicly attacking central bank researchers doing their jobs risks politicising institutions that are supposed to be independent.
I don’t understand why more people, especially those in the press, don’t call out these stupid f**ks. The obvious question to ask is if tariffs don’t cause inflation then why not set all tariffs to 100% or better yet, 1500% which is a number that Trump likes to boast.
The logic here is that tariffs don’t cause inflation so the rate can be set to whatever amount and that amount can generate all revenue to cover all expenses, what are we waiting for? Do it!
It’s outrageous. Just because Trump is illiterate when it comes to economics, Hassett thinks it’s best for him to play the bootlicker-in-chief, at the same time knowing (as a PhD economist) full well that the Fed study is empirically correct.
Just think if this bootlicker had been named head of the fed?
There is still time for him to be named as Fed Chairman
The consumers pay the tariffs, silly rabbit.
Just the same as corporate taxation.
Where do you think corporations get the money to pay taxes?
They get it from their customers.
Yet more indirect taxation.
Just more lies.
Sad
The best people.