Expect a Congressional deal: More money for Ukraine; more money for Israel, and more money for a wall. It won’t stop there. 
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy lost his job for working out a deal with Democrats. A gang of 8 led by GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz pulled the plug on McCarthy.
One of the gang of eight demands is no more money for Ukraine. Care to take bets?
Another Congressional Showdown
The Wall Street Journal asks Can Lawmakers Boost Ukraine Aid by $50 Billion—or Even More?
Pro-Ukraine senators from both parties, unnerved by the upheaval in the House, say they want to move quickly to pass a yearlong aid package for the war-torn country that far exceeds the amount of aid requested by President Biden in August and would last through the 2024 election.
Biden requested $24 billion in additional aid in August, drawing opposition from many Republicans who have grown wary of further funding for the war. Now, supporters of Ukraine in the Senate are aiming to offer a much bigger and longer-term package—with a price tag between $50 billion and $100 billion.
Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, also a strong supporter of Ukraine, said if it were up to him, the number would be closer to $100 billion—but said he would be open to compromise if Republicans were OK with $60 billion.
Outer Limits
Senator Lindsay Graham has suggested $60 billion to $70 billion as the amount needed for Ukraine aid through the November 2024 presidential election. He said he sees that estimate as the “outer limits.”
What a hoot.
Where have we heard that kind of talk before? Of wait, I remember.
Iraq Flashback
Even before the Iraq war began in March 2003, there was much discussion of its costs. President Bush’s economic adviser, Lawrence Lindsey, suggested that a war might cost $100 billion to $200 billion. He was fired. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, asked about outside estimates that the cost could reach $300 billion, responded, “Baloney.”
The above snip courtesy of Cato.
The cost was close to $3 trillion. With that “outer limit” flashback out of the way, let’s return to the Journal.
More Money for This and More Money for That
“I want immigration reform to get done. I want more money for the border,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D., Conn.). “But I get really nervous when people try to tie two difficult things together.”
I fail to understand that comment.
Five-Point Synopsis
- Some want this but not that.
- Others want that but not this.
- Still others want this and that.
- Virtually no one wants neither this nor that.
- Everyone always wants more money for something.
The obvious compromise is more money for this in return for more money for that.
What “this” and “that” represent is irrelevant. In this case it’s the border vs Ukraine. Israel is now thrown in the mix making it a case of this, that, and something else.
Expect more money for all three (and God only knows what else now that there is a crisis in play).
McCarthy Ousted, House Essentially Frozen, There Is No Path Forward, For What?
On October 3, I commented McCarthy Ousted, House Essentially Frozen, There Is No Path Forward, For What?
Irony of the Day
The eight who pulled off the ouster of McCarthy are cheering along with all the Democrats!
OK guys, you have the ball and the bat, and sided with 100 percent of the Democrats in a historic vote. All 208 Democrats in attendance voted against McCarthy.
Now what are you going to do with the Democrats for an encore?
In retrospect, “Now what are you going to do with the Democrats for an encore?” was a damn timely question.
I believe we now have an answer: Even more money for this in return for more money for that.
Neither Party Will Fix Anything
No One Will Fix This
“Compromise is always more spending for this in return for more spending on that.”
“Neither party will fix the deficits. Neither party will do anything about mounting debt. No one will do anything about anything because the political system is totally broken.” Mish
For discussion, please see Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This
Biden requested $24 billion for Ukraine. By holding out for nothing, the gang of 8 who dumped McCarthy and demanded nothing for Ukraine dramatically increased the odds Ukraine gets $60 billion to $100 billion now and even more later.
Anyone who thought 8 people could change the way Congress works was crazy.
Now what are the outer limits? Anyone care to make a guess?
If this was a computer game, and you were playing China… the next few weeks would be an interesting time to ramp the pressure up on Taiwan. Then you might see an election year where the question is asked of the Democrats: “How are you going to pay for all this?”
1) Border Wall Now
2) Term Limits
3) Balanced Budget Amendment
4) End the Fed
5) Disband the FBI and give the field offices to Governors
6) End all “foreign aid” and “lethal aid” until the US is solvent
7) 1% cut to all federal agencies each year until 1-6 are complete
8) 10% pay cut for Congress each year until 1-3 are complete
RC Guy, I like a lot of it, but added some food for thought…
1) Border Wall Now – Mandatory Agreement by ALL New Republican Members, House and Senate 2024!!!
2) Term Limits – Mandatory Agreement by ALL New Republican Members, House and Senate 2024!!!
3) Balanced Budget Amendment – Mandatory Agreement by ALL New Republican Members, House and Senate 2024!!!
4) End the Fed – Not That Easy, but Can Put Some Breaks on for starters and start dismantling any new agencies , where it makes sense, that were created over the last 10 Years!
5) Disband the FBI and give the field offices to Governors – Not That Easy, but the TOP Must Go Immediately!
6) End all “foreign aid” and “lethal aid” until the US is solvent – Mandatory Agreement by ALL New Republican Members, House and Senate 2024!!!
7) 1% cut to all federal agencies each year until 1-6 are complete – 10% Immediate Cut by All Agencies! And an Additional Mandatory 5% Cut by All Agencies for the next 4 years (Term of the Next Republican President (2024?)!
8) 10% pay cut for Congress each year until 1-3 are complete – Mandatory Agreement by ALL New Republican Members, House and Senate 2024!!!
Sometimes there are no good solutions, and one is forced to pick the least worst. There seems little hope that Ukraine can win this war against a bordering superpower. Russia has everything to lose if they do not prevail in Ukraine. It may seem offensive to negotiate with an invader but the alternative to a negotiated settlement sucks where hundreds of thousands more will die and Ukraine will be left in ruins. The US should stop enabling the killing and compel a settlement, even if it means ceding Crimea and easter Ukraine to the invader. A negotiated settlement may result in a terrible outcome, but the outcome is not as terrible as the continued feeding of this murderous war.
Who is the invader though, really? Who funded the coup in Ukraine years ago, and enabled the ethnocentrists to declare lebensraum upon the Donbass?
America’s failure in Asia is legend. America has a lot to thank Russia for in WW2.
This war is going to be very inflationary. Load up on single family houses and very short duration high quality fixed income investments.
Nobody’s got any money, and when the bond market breaks, the knock-on effects of that, aren’t going to help.
But, it should break with high inflation which will be reflected in short term interest rates, so that is where you need to park your cash to capture some of the inflation.
It’s amazing the dollar is still worth anything with these lunatics in charge.
There is a suicidal position of many Jewish intellectuals here in France: they have done everything they can to encourage the immigration of Arab populations radically hostile to Israel. The same is probably true in US, but much less that in France and Europe.
Most of them are Maroccan Jews
True
Here’s the infamous Barbra Spectre taking about how Jews are bring multiculturalism to Sweden. Given the once peaceful Sweden is now calling on the army to deal with its “diversity”, I wonder if our self righteous do gooders has any second thoughts?
link to odysee.com
When you don’t have to earn it before you can spend it, only a fool calls it “money”. It’s currency and they cannot stop spending more and more of it or the Global Debt Ponzi (GDP) will collapse.
Government spending IS the economy in this con game of a money system.
Link showed up in K’s comments this morning. A Bat Signal from The Jokers in D.C. –
link to diannemarshallreport.com
nifty.
1) Israel destroys Palestinians / Arabs throw Israel to the sea. That’s binary
thinking.
2) Option : Israel fights Hamas in a cage to preserve Fatah in the West Bank.
3) After a tie these two fighters will cut their losses, shake hands and respect each other. Coexistence is better than breaking each other’s bones for 75 years.
4) Turkey and Egypt will not accept an Iranian entity on their borders.
5) US is the main valve that prevents 5 mini ME superpowers from jumping
on each other’s necks.
6) The cost of supporting Israel pale in comparison to losing it to Hamas
and Iran.
7) Biden’s silk road from India to Europe might be accomplished after this fight. The ME might flourish for decades. Hatred don’t matter. Money talk. Oil. The whole
world hate the US, so what.
That’s called the Containment Strategy. It works fairly well as long as you can keep it up. Lots of people complain that either it isn’t working, never will and that it costs too much but it’s much cheaper than outright war.
The democrats love every war opportunity, get way more money from big corporations, and want to get rid of free speech to insure democracy. When did the democrats turn into the republican party when Reagan was president?
I read that about half a trillion dollars was added to the national debt in 18 days.
And we get 75000 new IRS agents to help fund it.
Giving no money to Ukraine and Israel would speed up the resolution of both these issues.
Some will argue that it won’t be the resolution the US wants (or that some in the US want) but they miss the larger point that both conflicts will be back again soon enough regardless. The situation in the middle east won’t ever be solved and the same may be true for the Ukraine. All that can and will eventually happen is a temporary peace followed by the inevitable resumption of these conflicts somewhere down the line (years or decades) regardless of however much money the US throws at it and whatever outcome that money helps get.
So that means it’s better to just not waste money on either one.
If you call Russia taking over Ukraine a “resolution”. I wouldn’t call it that because it would create an even bigger problem. As for Israel, we give them not that much money and in return we get a lot of military, commercial and technological cooperation that pays for itself many times over. Of course, if your objections are principally ideological then that wouldn’t count for you.
Israel should do to Hamas what we did to Al Qaeda in Afghanistan after 9/11. Invade and clean house. But they should absolutely do it on their own dime and not on ours (I’m OK providing intelligence and satellite imagery etc but no military aid / money / weapons etc).
I still don’t believe Russia can take over Ukraine. Long term occupation is something they can’t afford (money or military) nor do I think it’s something they want to do. Hence why they’ve dug in after taking just the ethnic Russian areas where they are welcomed and won’t have to use military to subjugate (that’s why there are no issues in Crimea).
I like your neighbor’s condo and I want it so I will beat him up till he signs it over to me. Now I am your neighbor. We’re good, right?
Your neighbour’s condo was built by you, and your relatives live in one part of it, your neighbour is beating them up and trying to kick them out, even though they’ve always lived there… you’re going to let them carry on, and then hand the condo you built over to the corporate letting agency next door?
Yup. I don’t get involved in other people’s domestic disputes in real life.
Now if you come for my condo, expect me to rain down fire.
It’s resumption of ownership. The Ukraine’s name means the borderlands, and the place (with ever-changing borders) has only not been part of Russia since 1991; and part of the population, especially in the Russian-built cities, has always been Russian.
Rinky, don’t confuse people with history. This conflict started when Russia invaded Ukraine. There was nothing that Russia could have had problem with before hand. Russia just hates Ukraine for its freedom.
Hating them for their freedom… Hmmm… I believe we heard that one before.
Most people here won’t get your sarcasm. Or perhaps you don’t understand the relationship between cause and effect?
They are pretty different situations. The Israel-Palestine situation has a long history of aggressive ideology fuelling each side, it’s almost a blood-feud.
The only ideology in the Ukraine situation, is that of the fascists in the Ukraine elites.
Israel has everything they need except a nuclear umbrella.
After $6 billion for Iran, it’s only fair to give another $6 billion to Ukraine and $6 billion to Israel. Maybe give $6 billion to all nations, except North Korea, Cuba, Afghanistan, China and Russia. Perhaps another $6 billion for me too, although I would be happy with just a $1,000 gift, or even $100.
Surely it’s about time that America gave $6BN to everyone, for the sake of equity – it’s only money, totally abstract, with nothing real about it… everything is free and belongs to everyone anyway, etc… I wonder what happened to all that stuff left behind in Afghan?
Oh the ignorance. No matter how many times you are told – even by your own government – the US did not “give” $6b to Iran. Check your facts before stroking your keyboard.
This country is hosed. The elected dumbells in office are a disgrace. Inflation as far as the eye can see. The federal reserve started increasing interest rates when the ukraine war started, I don’t think that was coincidence. War is what our current inflation is really about, and I see more of it in our future.
Mish, 100% agree, best post this year IMO
I think it’s high time America focuses on it own problems and stops causing chaos in the world. Neither Ukraine or Israel are America’s concern. Unfortunately the Israeli lobby has every politician taking the knee for Israel. It’s a pathetic spectacle we must endure every election cycle. I agree with JFK, the Israeli lobby should register as a foriegn agent. Their interest is not aligned with the US and its citizens. They just see the US as a dim witted cash cow that it can maneuver for its interest.
Today, it’s a dim witted cash cow.
One day, it will be a used, discarded condom. Israel will befriend China.
They are already ordering take-out😂
Yes. We should have waited for the Great Depression to end before entering into WW II. We should have ignored Pearl Harbor because it was us that provoked Japan into attacking so it was our fault. We must solve every one of our problems first before glancing at what is happening in the wide world.
The US is basically playing Wack-A-Mole trying to solve the worlds problems. Each one it attempts to solve creates another one which it then must solve.
It would not surprise me in the least that the US cutting off Russia over the Ukraine invasion caused Russia and Iran to do business (drones) which proved the usefulness of the drones and provided Iran with the money to finance, train and arm Hamas which then attacked Israel.
Now the US must spend money to solve this new problem which was created by attempting to solve the last problem. Solving Hamas will then of course create another problem elsewhere and on it goes.
Moles keep coming up and if you don’t wack them they will take over your yard. Every homeowner knows that so you have no choice but to defend your yard.
Our yard is between two oceans. At one time our yard was only along one ocean. The one ocean government decided they were going take all the land between it and the other ocean to the west.
Europe, Asia, Africa, are not our yard.
Why stop there? Mr. US homeowner tells everybody else in the neighborhood what to do and how to live their lives. Otherwise, he may kill or drive out other homeowners. His neighbors are enraged by the constant “must”, “demand”, “compel” and so on because those are signs of a narcissist. He makes threats about intimate behavior such as threatening neighbors who don’t approve of gay/trans conduct.
All in all, he is utterly obnoxious – and oddly enough, his roof leaks, his yard is a mess, his kids are running loose and he can’t pay his bills.
You are quite right Ron. Unfortunately, you can’t discern your border so you insist on whacking moles in other people’s yards. Most people know not to trespass. But when you have a hammer, you gotta pound nails – even if they are next door.
The US spends a million for each casualty while the opposition spends $100. Wonder who’s going to win in the end.
The lawyers?
“Solve problems”. Lol.
Why would Israel need money? They can handle this on their own.
Study Great Britian’s strategy during the Napoleonic Wars and you will understand.
Lets see if the MAGA budget hawks have the chutzpah to say no to Isreal $$$ demands or if that shifts us back to “deficits don’t matter” time again. It’s actually a godsend for Ukraine because the two aid packages will be bundled and nobody will vote no.
The wildcard is an extended mudfight over speaker, but I think the acting speaker could call for an acclimation vote for a combined mega bundle and everybody will be happy – for the time being.
When it comes to war, there is only the Uniparty.
Yes. It’s called bipartisan support.
link to cdc.gov.
Thank heavens they don’t have to care about Americans as with drug overdoses, for example. Lots of native Americans and poor and non college educated to ignore as untermenschen. And the homeless. And crime ridden cities. And borders out of control. But hey, first things first, keep wars funded.
Path forward?
Do nothing.
Financial collapse of the federal government is best case scenario.
By all means let’s give the World on a platter to our enemies.
Our enemies are less dangerous than our alleged friends.
Empires rot from within.
The Empire quote perfectly describes Russia. It’s rotted through and through.
Irrelevant. Nobody on this blog lives in Russia and the US falling apart is far more impactful.
Sure Russia is relevant. It started a major war in Europe and seeing how badly they are doing kind of confirms the rot.
WW2 was a major war. What’s happening in Europe now is a regional conflict. And it started long before Russia invaded.
Hi Doug…about time for me to revisit this blog on a more regular basis, if only to counter your moronic narrative ….
“..our enemies.”
Since tax/rent/mandate/fines/….. – payers, struggling to pay ever more for all of the above and more’s “our enemies”, are always all manners of hobgoblins halfway around the world. None of whom have ever contributed one whit to raising any of the above costs. While those who, directly, constantly contribute to nothing other than increasing them….. Well, they are referred to as “we.”
Fortunately as it turns out you can’t have money for Ukraine or Israel if the house isn’t doing anything. I hope they go without a speaker for the next decade .
They have a speaker, whether you pay attention or not.
Got Gold?
Gold sucks right now.
That means it’s a good time to buy.
It will suck even more.
But…but…”inflation!” “We got to curb inflation! “Americans must suffer for the good of the economy”! Or for the sins of the government. Americans need to deal with this once and for all. Get the tyrants out of government before they completely enslave you and destroy OUR country.
Of course with Biden’s comment…”as long as it takes”….the amounts earmarked for Ukraine can balloon beyond imagination. It brings to mind the quotation attributed to old Senator Everett Dirksen…
“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.”
(with the inflation since Dirksen’s time in office, the ‘billions’ has to be modified to ‘trillions’)
Why not go with MORE: QUADRILLIONS!!!!!
I keep hoping congress doesn’t figure out what comes after a trillion. Don’t help them
Toy Story is their government operator’s manual – to infinity and beyond!
We need to rename our two parties from Republicans and Democrats to Spenders and Bigger Spenders… althoughit could get confusing at times as to which is which.
Unfortunately USA hasen’t learned from our post 9/11 disasterous decisions & Vietnam disaster. Wasted $7 trillion & 50,000 US soldier casualties on invading Iraq & occupying it for 20 yrs based on fake manufactured “WMD evidence”. And should have just done targeted strikes on Al Queda in Afghan vs spending 20 yrs in Afghan and wasting more $$$ and people.
Hopefully Israel learns from these blunders and doesn’t emotionally overreact and cooler heads prevail. Targeted strikes and more intelligent means to dealing with Hamas.
Hopefully, one day Israelis will see other people as fellow humans.
Germans do today.