Eventually there will be a messy settlement to the military stalemate in Ukraine. Will it be sooner or later?
The Ukraine Debate Germany Will Get
Eurointelligence discusses The Ukraine Debate Germany Will Get
Saxony is the largest of the east German states, and as such it punches above its weight in national discussions. Since unification, this state has been run by conservative CDU politicians, nowadays by Michael Kretschmer. He gave an extraordinary interview to FAZ, in which he left no doubt that he wants Germany to force Ukraine to accept Russian territorial gains in exchange for an armistice deal. This is not the official position of his party, but this is the debate we are going to get: first in the CDU, and then in the country at large.
The AfD is the largest party in east Germany. The CDU and the other parties have erected a political firewall that excludes them from any coalitions. Being deprived of the opportunity to mess up is one of the reasons why the AfD is the perfect protest party. You can vote for them to register your dissent, but their chances of entering government are effectively zero. But their strengthening is weakening the other parties. Together, this means that, indirectly, the AfD is setting the agenda.
It does so on Ukraine. Kretschmer wants Germany to think in alternatives, as he put it. He said Germany and its allies should not give Ukraine a blank check to do whatever it wants. He says the stalemate at the battlefront should lead Germany to seek a diplomatic initiative for an armistice, as part of which Ukraine does not formally give up its territories, but accepts a partition of the country de facto.
We are not saying that Kretschmer’s views are representative of the CDU as a whole. It is still, mostly, a transatlantic party. But in case Donald Trump were to win the US elections, we think that Kretschmer’s take could be become much more in tune with that of a future US administration. What we often find in Europe is that the notion of Atlanticism is usually premised on a pro-European Democrat, and increasingly less so pro-European Republican, being in power. What can possibly go wrong?
No One Will Be Happy
A forced settlement with neither side getting what they want was my take the moment Russia failed to take Kyiv.
In the US, there is plenty of opposition to funding more money for Ukraine. However, there is still a majority opinion in Congress to do so.
But how long will that last?
Trump would undoubtedly cut aid. In general, the average person in the US is worried about the price of food, shelter, and energy.
I suspect that is given an honest election, major portions of the Donbass region in Eastern Ukraine would have favored being part of Russia.
Militarily, I don’t see either side winning.
And Biden wants the war over. It would be an an achievement for him, no matter how messy the alleged victory.
Here Comes the Big Push for More Money for Ukraine and Israel
On October 9, I cautioned Here Comes the Big Push for More Money for Ukraine and Israel
Expect a Congressional deal: More money for Ukraine; more money for Israel, and more money for a wall. It won’t stop there.
Outer Limits
[According to the Wall Street Journal] Senator Lindsay Graham has suggested $60 billion to $70 billion as the amount needed for Ukraine aid through the November 2024 presidential election. He said he sees that estimate as the “outer limits.”
The Hamas attack on Israel will result in a one-time boost for in in Ukraine. I suspect it will be more than Biden asked for but less than the Republican war hawks want.
How much money the US funnels to Ukraine remains to be seen. This could go on for years, but I suspect it won’t.
There are too many problems at home. Besides, why should the US keep spending hundreds of billions in Ukraine when Germany barely lifts a finger?
Biden requested $24 billion for Ukraine. By holding out for nothing, the gang of 8 who dumped McCarthy and demanded nothing for Ukraine dramatically increased the odds Ukraine gets $60 billion to $100 billion now and even more later.
Anyone who thought 8 people could change the way Congress works was crazy.
Now what are the outer limits? Anyone care to make a guess? When does US patience run out.
If Trump wins, that a guaranteed stopping point. Meanwhile, how many more die over cities that are now totally destroyed?
An armistice will lead to nothing permanent except Ukraine irredentism.
Time for the US to bug out and come.
If there were any possibility of a fair election, I’d say let the people that live in the territories vote to decide which country the territory is in, and then give the people that want to be in the other country a fair price for their land and send them on.
I don’t think either side would allow a fair election.
That map makes literally zero sense.
Appeasing aggressors looking to expand their European borders never works out well. Russian policy towards Ukrainian people is genocidal and their military operations have been unrelenting war crimes. Gen Heelspurs and his cultists are OK with this, he’s in bed with Putin and other “strongmen” arouund the globe.
NATO moved its border to the east. Hillary took a big red reset button to Russia. Obama told Medvedev he would have more room to maneuver, after the 2012 election. It wasn’t Putin that overthrew Yanukovich, leading to where things are now.
Exactly true Ron but these people are in deep denial
There is no NATO “border”, individual countries have borders and they choose to join or not join NATO – as Finland and Norway have recently done after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. You’re silent about putin’s genocidal attack on the Ukrainian people, I guess you’re OK with it.
Whoops, meant Sweden & Finland joined, Norway is long time member
Trump may become president, but it will be of his jail cell block.
Russia will eventually be forced to cut and run, just as they did in Afghanistan. Their economy couldn’t pay the price back then and it can’t pay the price now.
Meanwhile, the US prints whatever new money it needs.
Looks like Hasbara is back on the job in Haifa
People can imagine what they want.
Interesting
It takes a half million people to die before someone starts thinking about a settlement? How crazy is that?
human primates are dangerous primates. we were the only ones to sell off our children for debts. which became money. read graeber “debt ,a 5000 year history of money. “
Only Gold and Silver are money Fiat is debt and slavery CBDCs even worse
You forgot the Ruble. You were supposed to put that in so make sure you do it the next time or your salary will be docked.
Doug I’m not Russian nor do I earn anything from posting the truth on Mishtalk Get a life will ya
Look at who is responsible for the slaughter and you will get your answer and Putin is only part of the guilty party but yeah it’s crazy and depraved but not surprising to me anyway
Russia will end up with most of everything east of the Dnieper river, exactly as Elon Musk pointed out when this fiasco started.
NATO (really the US and some loudmouths) doesn’t have the diplomatic credibility to negotiate. Perhaps Mish didn’t get Angela Merkel’s memo? The Minsk “agreement” was merely a stall tactic to build up the Ukraine military. Why would anyone trust the next Minsk stall tactic? The perfectly sensible peace plan put forth in Turkey, and verbally accepted by Ukraine and Russia, was scuttled by Boris Johnson. NATO doesn’t keep its word, and openly admits its just stalling to reinforce for the next sortie. Seriously Mish, on what basis would anyone waste time negotiating with “NATO”?
Biden started with a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, and he will go out with humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Israel/Gaza isn’t looking good after Biden sent $6 billion to Iran; even if it was unrelated, the optics are disastrous for Biden. America does not have the same interest in Ukraine as Bursima / Hunter Biden does. Ukraine “supporters” and anti-Trumpers are the same group; most Americans still can’t find it on a map.
Joe Biden can’t protect the US border, and won’t even try. Does anyone really believe he can protect some other country’s border?
NATO is finished because its military credibility is gone. The US cannot (is not able to) float the thing anymore, Turkey doesn’t trust western Europe (with good reason), and the rest of NATO membership has been a bad joke for decades. Poor political leadership just adds to the problem.
The USA has a serious money problem. Octogenarians promising someone else will pay the debt decades after they die? Come on. Even the US government admits Social Security cannot be paid in full. Never mind Russia or Ukraine, the USA can’t afford to continue.
Loudmouths like Nuland and McCain yup absolutely right Spot on Greg
Angela who?
A resounding “NO”
The longer this plays out, the less popular Putin is in Russia.
Putin has played this movie repeatedly, take a chunk and agree to a much smaller concession.
If any territory is conceded, there WILL be a next time, it just keeps working.
.
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Yes, and Germany has a perfect right to offer Bremerhaven and Saxony to Putin. I think he would take the deal.
Putin is more popular then ever in Russia Where do you get your statistics?
Mussolini was very popular in Italy until suddenly he wasn’t.
Russians and Italians HUGE difference in mentality
Yes, Italians know when to dump a loser where Russians do not.
If Trump was president he wouldn’t give any of our money away. He would do strategic loans that would be paid off over the next 25+ years. He would also rent out our technology along with a successful guarantee.
with the trump logos on everything. remember when he use the MOAB into mountain villages in afghanistan. the media fawned and said now he is our president. he bombed more than even obama and W the dumber. i think biden has him beat though.
If Trump becomes president, he will do the same even more so.
Don’t forget 10% for Jared please
Let’s correct the record here:
YOUR TAKE: “How much money the US funnels to Ukraine remains to be seen”
CORRECTED: “How much money the US funnels to Ukraine, and then round-tips those funds into the CONGRESSIONAL and ADMINISTRATION’s POCKET BOOKS, remains to be seen.”
And how much “ Z” and his minions steal along the way
The Hamas attack will actually increase support for Ukraine because the perception that we are under attack from more than one has increased. Both will get more and there will be an acceleration in military spending and more money for munitions. It was the second wakeup call and bipartisan support will remain solid. Putin wants to negotiate as long as he keeps everything and sanctions are lifted. That is a no go. Ukraine is getting more and more sophisticated equipment and more of that is German. That helps make up for having less manpower. When the F-16s come they will make a difference in the ground war. In the meantime, European arm manufacturers are expanding rapidly. The Hamas war will see Israel field its new energy weapon, Iron Beam, which will take down the rockets for 5 bucks a shot totally inversing the cost ratio. Of course the US partially financed it so we and Nato will also have it soon. Russia is getting shells and artillery from NK, drones from Iran and still not much from China. Russia’s high-tech armaments industry is still struggling to produce mass and the shell production has gone up but not enough to cover what the fire. China will do enough to keep Russia fighting but for a cost. Not sure if Russia will want to pay the price when China gives them the bill.
Doug,
The paragraph format is widely accepted. It would behoove you to use it. Nobody wants to read a bunch of letters smashed together. It reeks of nonsense and crazy. Use it. More people will read it.
his stuff is nonsense, but have you ever read jack kerouc. he taped 300 pages and typed a classic with no punctuation or formatting………….a real great tale of great depression……..
If you read it on a telephone I can see the problem. OK, thanks.
I’m certain the iron beam has a little brother to take down drones automatically.
Iron Dome you mean
Iron beam is the laser version of Iron Dome. It could be effective against small drones.
The Ukrainian Air Force, to my knowledge, has had to use guerilla airfield tactics to keep the Russians guessing as to where they are operating from. This is to prevent Moscow from targeting the aircraft/impromptu airfield from drone attacks and air strikes, destroying stationary aircraft or the rendering the “runway” unusable. Soviet-built aircraft are sublimely suited to this.
For ex, the MiG-29 “Fulcrum” uses automatic Foreign Object Debris (FOD) covers that close for initial start up (vid). Meanwhile louvres located at the top of the wing-root open to provide alternate air intake to the jet engines. Upon take off, once the weight on wheels (WoW) switch in the nose gear detects it is off the ground, the louvers cycle closed and the FOD covers on the primary intake retract, allowing max airflow to the engines once the danger of FOD damage has passed. This ingenious design allows the Fulcrum to operate, not only from unimproved runways or even highways, but even from grass fields. The wing itself and the distance to the ground preventing small stones and debris from getting sucked into the delicate engines.
I cannot stress how dangerous and debilitating FOD is to aircraft. A single rock, bolt, nut, or minor road debris can have a cataclysmic effect on a modern high-performance jet engine. It may not even happen immediately, the damage could happen on take off, then progressively get worse during flight as the blades, now potentially bent or unbalanced begin to self-destruct the engine internals. Even if a MiG-29 happens to shell out an engine because of the careless placement of a bolt or tool by a mechanic or the ingestion of a bird during flight or take off, the MiG HAS TWO ENGINES which are isolated in separate bays, preventing the destruction of one engine from FOD-ing out the second.
The F-16, by contrast, is definitely not suited for this style of airfield. The bottom of the intake lip sits approximately 30” from the ground with no provision of alternate intake. In addition, all the suction flow of that air comes from the sides, fore, and ground since no air can be ingested from above the engine (that’s where the fuselage is). With no provision for FOD protection or alternate, high-mounted intakes during the entire time spent on the ground, this calls for rigid and inflexible FOD control measures from the location of engine start, to taxiing routes to the runway.
In the USAF, this meant hundreds of maintainers walking at arms-length intervals two to three times a day with eyes on the ground looking for any and every piece of debris that could be ingested by the multi-million dollar vacuum cleaner with only ONE engine we were charged with maintaining. In addition, an almost constant procession of street-cleaners rumbled up and down the flightline, taxiways and runway. Everything had to be spotless lest we risk the aircraft, or worse, the pilots.
Imagine the preparation it would take to complete this process on a 10,000 foot long straight highway, in the dark, while trying to be as inconspicuous as possible so as not to draw the attention of collaborators or Russian spies. You couldn’t hop from highway to highway or run from unimproved airfields like the Ukrainian Air Force can do with MiG-29s, you’d be handcuffed or at the very least less mobile. Imagine a disused Soviet airfield that suddenly had all its weeds plucked from the cracks in the concrete, concrete patched, the runway spotless. What signal does that send? “F-16s could, will, or are operating from here.”
Ah yeah right The Hamas attack Sounds an awful lot like a typical false flag to wake up the ignorant masses and get them primed for the slaughter
Putin opened a second front. Biden cannot cannot afford another Afghanistan. Ukraine and Israel are his next losses. Biden told Israel : invading Gaza is a big mistake. Ukraine lost 20% of its territory. Israel by sticking its head in the sand.
The expanding Iranian’s empire : Iraq/Syria/Lebanon/Yemen and Gaza.
The new reality : three states are condensed in a tiny place : Gaza, the west bank and Israel in between. US ==> a declining empire.
Mish, There is no military stalemate in Ukraine. According to Col. MacGregor the Ukranian army is being fed through a meat grinder with over 500,000 Ukrainian casualties. Beside the dwindling US interest and the depleted NATO weapons stockpiles, they are having trouble recruiting new cannon fodder. Any peace proposal will be made on Putin’s terms.
https://www.youtube.com/live/bcwFyNbX5m8?si=5WMg0NWOfSDJ-BLO
I see repots that Russia is losing countless troops.
I don’t believe any of it.
The truth is most likely in the middle. Both sides are suffering.
poppycock response. you don’t believe any of it. the truth is out there on territory won, and dead bodies not really easy to hide. just not in usa propaganda. this was a CIA and MIC typical idiotic move of getting in a civil war. but the C suite of MIC made out wonderfully. and the UKE flag makers. amerikans are vile nihilist morons who don’t know anything beyond their noses. they don’t travel or try to learn. it is the curse of an evil empire. all of us amerikan born and raised had that curse. some lift it. i also vote in italia. now that’s a funny place. they did their evil empire dance. you might have heard of the romans or mussolini.
Hey TT I’m USA born and raised and have been traveling and living abroad since 1968 Lived in Warsaw during Solidarity ( martial law) era with my ex Live in Turkey now and maintain my place in central Warsaw ( next door to the Central Bank of Poland) so not every American is as you describe just 99.99999%😯
Haha
Mish,
Sure Russian has taken thousands of casualties, but, far less than Ukraine. It has also had economic sanctions slapped on it and had a $10 billion dollar pipeline blown up. In response their military industry is humming, churning out massive amounts of artillery shells and weapons. Their army has grown to 1 million men and plans are for them to recruit another 300,000. The Russian army is much bigger and stronger than when this war started. The entire Russian population are pissed this war was forced on them. I don’t think they are in any mood to let bygones be bygones. This is a huge debacle for the Biden Administration. What if Russia decide to get some payback on the US in this new Middle East conflict?
Fortunately for the US, Putin is the adult in th e room.
The Russians were so stupid they launched a limited attack and continued to supply Europe with natural gas. Putin is foolish enough to believe he can negotiate with Western leaders who don’t hesitate to poison their citizens or castrate their children
Russia will never accept any NATO terms ever again. It will end when Ukraine has had enough.
The tragedy is that this forthcoming settlement was the rational one from the very beginning. It was obvious right away. We can argue that all wars are monuments to human failure, but some more so than others. This one is especially that.
Russia great and smart! Ukraine and NATO bad and dumb. Sad.
Agree fully with Joss and Neal. Russia will call the shots after the Ukraine military collapses – and Russia is in no particular hurry.
There is no stalemate in the fighting. The Ukraine spring offensive failed badly with a couple of hamlets captured for the loss of 40,000 men. Now Russia is taking back those few miles and is also encircling a major strongpoint that has been shelling the Donbas for 9 years.
And Germany can’t force anything in Russia, they tried it with sanctions and failed. And if last winter was mild there is no guarantee that this one will be. A winter like at the end of 1944 will be brutal for Germany and Ukraine without Russian gas and Russia will be the one dictating surrender terms. Russia has 3 times the troops of Ukraine with 10 times the supplies and isn’t dependant on NATO hand me down dribs and drabs to keep up the pressure at the front.
Also large numbers of Ukrainians are surrendering and Ukraine is like Germany in 1945 drafting old men and the disabled to replace losses. They are also looking to draft women and teenagers and want the millions who fled to Europe to be forced back.
But at least some in Germany are starting to see reason.
The first mistake is believing Russia wanted to take Kyiv . . . thats Western Propaganda . . . You can’t take anything with 50,000 soldiers and that was never their intention . . . it was a ploy to get everybody to the negotiating table . . . and they nearly succeeded before Boris showed up . . .
The second mistake is believing that the West can afford to continue to give away all this money without major political, financial and economic repercussions in their countries . . . they can’t and that is already beginning to happen . . .
The third mistake is believing that the Russians are going to negotiate for less than they want . . . they won’t . . . The Russians can afford to drag this conflict out much longer than the West . . . and they will because they are fighting for their existence . . . not for the Money . . . Time will tell . . . and we definitely need a new Strategy . . .
Russia is bleeding cash and people. At some point, you run out of people.
You obviously have no idea about the military reality in Ukraine. NATO is losing and losing big.
Your whole opinion is a perfect example of GIGO…
What Germany or the West at large want is, at this point, basically irrelevant to how this conflict will end.
=Russia is bleeding cash and people. At some point, you run out of people.
sorry Mish! you dont even know basic facts. it seems.
ukraine ppl is about 20 mil , after all immigration last 10 years. it was 52 mil in 1991
Russian ppl is 145*150 mil. Russia is 2x biggest country for immigration in world, after USA.
ps
quit watching cnn=bbc. IT IS JUST PURE PROPAGANDA.
If NATO enters on the side of Ukraine (not even counting the USA directly and independently), the Ukraine manpower numbers will increase significantly.
And it is not a long distance from the Ukraine border to Moscow.
Great idea Mr mojo Why don’t you lead the attack fool
“And it is not a long distance from the Ukraine border to Moscow.”
How long a distance then, before Nuclear weapons are used by Russia, Jojo?
=Russia is bleeding cash
before war Russia gov debt was lowest in g20. external gov debt never existed.
(less than 50 bln$)
Russia always run 2d biggest positive trade balance in world about $150*200 bln per year (after china)
———
now, after sanctoins it got worse, and yet Russia finances are still healthiest (trade and gov) in world.
THERE IS NO FREELOADING IN RUSSIA.
Russia is not USA. IT CAN”T run 2 trln deficit per year. it seems they learnt USSR leassons.
alx
Mish stick to economics bro
Russia is not bleeding people . . . it actually had an influx of Ukrainians over the last 18 months . . .
[roflol]. You’re counting the populations of the areas of Ukraine it has annexed, yes?
No net immigration to Russia not the Donbas Einstein
Yes he is. Captured populations can be forced to fight for you by the traditional Russian method of imprisoning or threatening their families. One of the reasons they are unwelcome by their neighbors.
“Russia is bleeding cash and people. At some point, you run out of people.”
The cash bleed can, and overwhelmingly likely will, be made up for with higher oil prices, and massive demand for Russian arms from Arab countries flush with newfound even-greater-than-before oil wealth. There’s little reason to believe Xi will put all that many brakes on such sales, given that all they will do is drive even more nails into coffin housing what was once “The West.”
As for people, Ukraine and Russia are both pretty much neck and neck at impotence. Beating even the Japanese, who once pioneered that particular sport. Furthermore, should it go that far, Russia does have many more options for recruiting foreign fighters. Ukraine is effectively isolated, with it’s only support coming from near equally impotent Western countries, along with geriatrics-only Japan and flat-out-forgot-how-to-make-kids-at-all South Koreans.
Ultimately both Ukraine and Israel will have to fend for themselves. Relying on dead broke, self promoting hasbeens, too dense to realise they’re increasingly no more relevant than The Mongols now are, is never a sound long term strategy.
exactly correct. not sure where mish gets that map and information. nothing close to economist newspaper maps and other world wide sources. russia never wanted kiev. that is obvious. they alreaddy got what they want. biden will wait until 2024 until prisoner swaps and petro dollar reward. win win win.
Great! Then we can claw our $120 Billion back. 😉
Fat chance of that happening
Germany wants that map??!! Russia already occupies and owns Crimea. I seriously doubt they would give it back. Russia controls far more territory in eastern Ukraine than is shown on that map. I seriously doubt they would give any of that back.
Exactly. I did a double take when I looked at it. Basically, Germany would be telling Russia they need to retreat from 50 percent of the land in Ukraine they currently hold. Do any serious people even work in government anymore?
Not sure where that map came from because if you click on the article, there is no map associated with it.
Looks like Mish just posted a generic pre-war map.
Doubt very much Crimea and connecting mainland area would be agreed to That’s the base of what’s left of their Black Sea fleet Plus it’s basically Russian population like the East
What’s the price for peace?
Ukraine does not like that map either!!!
Armed crook invades your home and after a month’s long standoff, the police agree to give him a portion of your home.
Sounds fair, right?
.
My wife is from the Donbas, she cried with joy when last year those “armed crooks” finally intervened to defend unarmed civilians, herself, her relatives and her friends, being bombed by the American installed and American controlled Kiev governments since 2014.
The West is not the “police” in this story, Russia is.
The West is supporting and actually directing the terrorist war criminals in Ukraine in a failed bid to break Russia and plunder it like they have been doing in Ukraine and started to do in Russia after the fall of the USSR and until Putin came to power.
This will be proven to be the biggest geo-political and military mistake and miscalculation in the West’s whole history, and most probably a fatal one… Fingers crossed.
As a Western European from an occupied country, Italy, I am praying for the collapse of the EU and the end of NATO. How this conflict is going to end will very possibly cause both.
More like your daughter lives next door and in the next house down there is a crack house from which gangsters have been shooting at the daughter for about 10 years. Then they take down the fence and have a bunch of guys begin preparation for a home invasion. Do you help her?
Ukraine should have thought of that before they allowed psychopaths like Nuland and McCain to overthrow their democratically elected President
Respectfully, Russia doesn’t need to accept peace on terms that require them to give up Crimea. They have the dominant hand in the war of attrition and Ukrainian forces are largely spent.