We are headed for another government shutdown debacle that will end with Republicans making fools of themselves again.
Within a few years the debt-to-GDP ratio of the US will topple highs set in WWII. This time, there will not be a huge baby boomer led recovery.
Politically Nonsensical Demands
A group of hard-right conservatives are now making demands that would only be tenable if their party had big majorities in the House and Senate, with a White House that would sign.
None of those conditions are in place. Democrats control the Senate and the White House.
Republicans have a scant 4-seat majority in the House.
What’s the Fight Over?
The answer is peanuts, and styrofoam ones at that. The Wall Street Journal has some interesting numbers.
- McCarthy proposes discretionary spending bills for fiscal 2024 totaling $1.526 trillion
- The hardline conservatives want a budget of $1.471 trillion
- The House Appropriations Committee authorized $1.59 trillion.
$1.526 trillion – 1.471 trillion = $0.055 trillion ($55 billion). That’s what the bickering is about. And the result would be a trillion dollar deficit.
Defense Spending
Republican fiscal deficit hypocrites want a staggering $826 billion for defense spending.
But even that vote stalled because the same pack of hypocrites demand all the cuts to come elsewhere.
Sorry guys, it does not work that way.
Just Money?
It’s not just money, it’s also about where the money goes. Some Republicans want to cut Ukraine funding totally, but others want to increase it.
In the Senate, Rand Paul has signaled he will not vote for more money for Ukraine.
Senator Rand Paul took to the Senate floor Wednesday to “putting congressional leadership & the Biden Administration on notice” that he will “oppose any effort to hold the federal government hostage for Ukraine funding.”
Political Reality
We can debate all day whether we should cut funding for Ukraine.
But here’s the political reality: Biden wants it, most Senate republicans do as well, and all of the allegedly anti-war spending Democrats will vote for more free money to Ukraine as well.
With so much Republican and Democrat support for Ukraine aid, the idea that Ukraine funding will be cut is headed nowhere.
Holding up bills in the House over Ukraine spending only to back down later is a waste of time.
The WSJ notes McCarthy may have problems even getting a rule for debate cleared through the floor. Some $300 million in routine funding for Ukraine remains in the bill even though Rep. Marjorie Tayor Greene (R., Ga.) said she would vote “no” unless the money was stripped out. The bill doesn’t include the $24 billion in supplemental Ukraine funding requested by President Biden.
Replace McCarthy With Whom?
Axios reports Matt Gaetz Threatens McCarthy to Remove him as Speaker
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said Tuesday that McCarthy is “out of compliance” with the terms of the deal he made with conservatives to become speaker.
Gaetz accused McCarthy of using “budgetary gimmicks” to achieve lower spending levels.
List of Gaetz’ Demands
- Gaetz said a stopgap spending bill to avoid government shutdown would be an “automatic trigger” for a motion to vacate
- Gaetz cited a lack of votes on term limits and balanced budgets — and called out the lack of full release of Jan. 6 tapes and argued the investigations into the Biden family have fallen short.
- “The path forward for the House of Representatives is to either bring you into immediate total compliance or remove you, pursuant to a motion to vacate the chair,” he said.
Motion to Vacate
A motion to vacate the chair means holding a fresh vote on electing a Speaker of the House.
Part of McCarthy’s deal with the devil to become Speaker was a new rule that allows just one House Republican to advance a motion to vacate.
It might behoove Gaetz to consider the question “Who has the votes to replace McCarthy?“
If this is not a bluff by Gaetz, a motion to vacate could trigger chaos. The motion might fail because it would require 200 Democrats to go along, but what if they did?
Imagine this story: 200 House Democrats side with Republican Representative Gaetz to oust Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
What possible good can come from that scenario given Democrats hold the Senate and White House?
About That Balanced Budget Try
The pack of deficit hawk hypocrites who did nothing when they actually had a legitimate chance, now demand a balanced budget while simultaneously seeking more money for defense spending.
I favor a balanced-budget. But Republicans had two years to do that under Trump when they held all three branches of government.
Republicans did not even try. They only “try” when they are not in power.
Where’s This All Going?
That’s the easiest question I asked today. Nowhere. Republicans will capitulate like they always do, with Democrats laughing all the way.
The only real question is how much damage Republicans do to themselves along the way.
Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This
On September 7 I commented Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This
The CBO projects net interest will rise from 10 percent to 23 percent of total outlays.
Major Health Care programs, of which Medicare will comprise about 80 percent, will increase from 27 percent to 38 percent.
The total of Major Health Care and Interest is 23 percent + (38 percent * .77) = 52 percent.
Social Security is another 28 percent * .77 = 22 percent.
That makes the total of Major Health Care + Interest + Social Security 74 percent of total outlays, leaving 26 percent for everything else. Good luck with that.
Hello President Biden, Banning Gasoline Powered Cars Is Not Popular
I am an equal opportunity basher, tending to criticize the party in power the most.
For me it’s not about the party, but about the policies.
Biden has made an inflationary mess with his Green energy policy. See Hello President Biden, Banning Gasoline Powered Cars Is Not Popular for discussion.
No One Will Fix This
Compromise is always more spending for this in return for more spending on that.
Bnd both parties want to spend more on the military.
“Neither party will fix the deficits. Neither party will do anything about mounting debt. No one will do anything about anything because the political system is totally broken.” Mish
I doubt Gaetz will find the votes to replace McCarthy (even the with Democrat’s help) with anyone other than another RINO. The Uniparty will prevail.
Democrats have terrible leadership. Republicans have no leadership. Not sure which is worse.
Versus what Uncle Fetterman and his sweat suits?
Biden who can’t make a sentence?
Biden who has taken millions in bribes
Biden who had evidence that the covid vaccines were killing people and mandates them?
Butting who never did anything for Ohio?
Biden who has cut off all our oil and sold our reserves?
Hawaii?
Bidenomics?
Harris?
Border control?
God I could just keep going
How about an debt brake as eg Switzerland has?
Like with every government shutdown, this too will be “resolved” by further cutting of the social safety nets. The DONORcrats would be very happy to accept the deal, but would pretend to be sad and whine that it is the big bad Republicans who are making it happen.
Look there are a lot of great comments here but busy as I am, I don’t have time to try and straiten out all you crazy asshole alcoholics. Years ago a man said to be harmless as doves, wise as serpents. Still some Republicans with traditional values try to be harmless as doves, but they’re still dumb as dirt.
You know who doesn’t care about Government shutdowns? Government employees. They get a free vacation! When the shutdown ends they get back pay.
The only ones who care are feeble minded GS-5 folks or anyone else living paycheck to paycheck. They basically won the lottery with their lowly gubament job and spend their loot like most lottery winners; wasting it on nonsense big screen TV’s and eating out everyday.
How do I know this? Because I have seen it with my own eyes. Fascinating. They eat out everyday but when the gov shutdowns strait to the food banks crying bloody murder.
You have a good idea on our future when the pols are
demanding their vote be purchased with gold.
Skeletons in closet for blackmail.
McCarthy = Hassert.
Prob fine with California, though.
LOL about “hypocrites”. I saw Kristin Welker (eat the press) interview Mark Milley and the broad put on her best gasp-face and said “is there a danger of the military going woke”! Kid you not, like that was national security issue one. Funny thing….in reality the wars sold to Muricans are all on Woke arguments: “freedom, principles, “spreading goodness”, etc etc. All venal lies couched in wokeism.
Then there’s GOP like Tuberville…trying to make the killer military “pro life”. Kid you not!
“Neither party will fix the deficits. Neither party will do anything about mounting debt. No one will do anything about anything because the political system is totally broken.” Mish
100% correct. This has been the case now for 30+ years and I doubt anything will change over the next 30. There will be 50 million boomers retiring over the next 7 to 10 years creating an even larger mess all dependent on social security thinking they’ll be living the good life on the government dime but smart people know they’ll be broke and homeless through inflation and social program cuts. It’ll be a new great depression in America with anyone over 65 suffering the most.
The only thing to do now is maximize profits and have a plan to cash out. The only reason to monitor politics is to understand which businesses will be profiting when the administration changes hands and pre-position accordingly.
I’ve got a list of stocks, etfs and other investments on standby if repubs win and a list if dems keep going. Either way, more profits, money and better retirement for me because nothing is going to change.
The next president, either Trump or Biden, might be the most hated and
vicious president, but he will be one of the greatest, b/c he will cut gov debt
perhaps by a third, shrink our overextended profile, to preserve our empire.
He will chop the Pareto top, but will be with the boys.
McCarthy has plenty of time to write separate defunding bills for each federal department. The election is not until November 2024.
I hope that they find someone within the GOP that can read and write. That is going to take some time given they blind stupidity.
1) The republican delivers the buck. The buck stops at the white house.
If the republican will not deliver the buck, for whatever reasons, ==> US gov
will shutdown, unless they cut the cost !!
2) All the republican has to do is not to get along, to fool Biden and frustrate
the democrat, who bent the will of the other side since LBJ.
3) If they kick the can down it might be a decoy.
4) At 40K Dow, Bidenomic can’t stop winning, until the Shark bites.
“A group of hard-right conservatives are now making demands that would only be tenable if their party had big majorities in the House and Senate, with a White House that would sign”
Every time that situation occurs they run up the deficit even more. Cut taxes and increase spending.
When Democrats and Republicans come to an agreement –
Dems agree to allow more Republican tax cuts for the Donor-class CEO’s of corporations that the Republicans agree to allow Dem spending for their price gouged goods & services.
This way, both sides appease political donors and voters, a $33 trillion win/win.
IMO, the next Fed cut is a lot sooner than anyone thinks.
.
the term conservative and republican should never be in same sentence. they are radical spenders. anti conservation.
GOP is done. They’re opposed to everything but unfunded tax cuts. Deficits only matter to them when a Dem is in the WH.( It’s not an on/off switch, people.)
GOP did nothing during trump but run up the deficit, appoint a bunch of incompetent if not corrupt judges, talk about building a wall and creating “a much better health care plan” and botch the Covid response, killing hunreds of thousands of Americans.
Now they want another dose of trump incompetence fueled by his personal fear of prison and desire for vengence.
Gaetz talks tough but he hasn’t a clue what to do once he pulls the pin on McC. It would serve him right if he ended up with a Dem speaker after enough Country Club reps decided a rational Dem speaker would do a better job protecting their investments than a bunch of bomb throwers like gaetz, Marge and Beetlejuice Blowbert.
I want tax cuts, and I want the government shrunk — dramatically. The only way to make government smaller is to starve it, so if the cuts have to come first, great.
I couldn’t care less about much else. We are in an existential crisis of governing that threatens everything about America that makes it unique.
Cut it all, and burn it down. It is the only way we can reform the mess that we currently have.
– I want tax cuts, and I want the government shrunk.
I agree and with those two, both go hand in hand. Of course the Government Must Shrink first and foremost, if we have any chance to get quickly on the repair and replace side of things.
– I couldn’t care less about much else. We are in an existential crisis of governing that threatens everything about America that makes it unique.
I agree totally, and this Mandatory quick list, is an easy way to keep America Unique and Free. The Constitution, Free Speech, Right to Self Defense, Rule of Law, Secure Borders, A Charity Starts at Home Approach, amongst a few others.
– Cut it all, and burn it down. It is the only way we can reform the mess that we currently have.
That falls into the “Be careful what you ask for, because you might just get it” Category. We don’t need to throw the Sink, the Water, and the Baby Out. We need to shrink the size of the sink where necessary, get used to warm water, and Protect Our Children Always.
Worst case: McCarthy ends up causing the “CR” to kick in for the Dems.
Best case: McCarthy gets removed and as a result they Stop the “CR” from occurring.
We shall see…
A lobotomy might help the TDS
GOP died long ago when the con man grifter from my home town turned it into the BULL MOOSE MAGA PARTY. watching him flim flam the old dumphucks is kind of funny. pax dumbfuckistan is just rolling over. all empires die off. some take centuries, some go quick. we are busted financially and our military is just a place to grift billions. it’s over kids. the good thing is it is NOT a bad thing. empires suck. we have so much bread and circus here, nobody will suffer much. face reality. our governments, fed/state and locals spend about 30,000 USD per person each year. only one way to do that. debauch the currency. that’s called inflation. the calls for deflation are silly.
Lots of downvotes from the right, and as usual, zero articulation of why they disagree. Let me guess, butthurt again?
The US has given trillions of aid to Pakistan, Egipt, palestinians and other similar people who enjoy burning our flag.
But now some politicians want slash aid to Ukraine, that has destroyed russian ships and submarines, hundreds of planes and helicopters, thousands of tanks…
Kind of ironic that the GOP is finally upset, now that we are meddling with the Russian dictator.
I wonder if the CBO attached an estimate of probability that this mess in anything like its current form can continue to 2053?
It seems we’re primed for accidents but have no way of knowing when or what it (or they) will look like.
The current “system” is going to completely implode long before 2053.
Probably before 2033.
I give it another 5 years.
It would be great if mcarthy came up for a vote and a bunch of dems crossed the line and voted for a mod republican basicly nullified the far rt.
I can see fx news now
The estimated time line is based upon current economic conditions. Back in 2019 pre-covid, the current estimated time line for a $trillion dollar payment of just interest alone was 2029. Today it’s already a reality, 5 yrs ahead of schedule. Who’s to say in another 5yrs, the estimated timeline for 2053 won’t be a reality by 2029. A Major 9.4 Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest would destroy the entire west coast shipping ports, China declares WAR against the US. Europe revolts against NATO and the US…Lock and load really tough times are headed our way…
Nostradamus anyone😂?
There is some small part of me that believes, in secret, that the GOP returns to its pre LBJ days when the Dixiecrats ditched the Dems in protest of civil rights and turned the GOP into a borderline hate group/corporate PR agency.
The Eisenhauer GOP, man they were great, vs today’s nut cases.
Now, they argue “cut entitlements” while ignoring costs, they obsess over “Woke” while ignoring real policy debates.
As a middle aged heterosexual man, yes, I can’t stand the excess woke – especially in Hollywood, where it’s now impossible to watch a movie without a homosexual sex scene, or a Victorian England piece with a Black man filling the role of a “Duke”.
That, however, takes back seat to my sheer horror of the medieval fiscal policies of the GOP, especially pronounced in the ’08 era. Crush the working/middle clash and avail them cheaper and cheaper debt in place of wages, then, when it crashes, take it out on the middle vs pissing off the donor class.
None wants to cut prices to reduce costs, none want to tax those who’ve had their taxes cut to an extreme over the last 40 years, nor do a damned thing about bloated healthcare costs of publicly traded companies that derive 45% of revenues from tax dollars.
One side whines about “Woke” and wants us all to give extra special attention to a minority group, the other sides bitches about “Woke” going so far as to burn any book that hints at it,
IDGAF about woke, get money out of politics, do something about the rigged costs of healthcare/pharma, fix stock market manipulation and the Fed’s incestuous self dealing structure.
What’s worse, though, the percentage of the population that’s so easily roped into insultive exchanges about “Woke”.
The house is on fire, but ignore it, let’s just insult each other over choice of drapes or chandeliers.
.
“Woke” is the right’s attempt to destroy promotion of tolerance. You’re either for tolerance, or it doesn’t have a place in your personal life. But the right could not be more hypocritical about “Cancel culture” as “anti-wokeness” is exactly cancel culture.
Enjoy the Molotov
DEBT is what will signal the very end of all this for everyone. All levels of society are deep in debt with the gov leading the way, no matter who’s in power. The way out is for the citizen to rid of debt, live below their means and basically starve the beasts. Stop the insane consumerism, spend time in the community instead of the cell phone and go outside to get free sun vitamin D. Say NO and mean it to gov inserting itself in citizen’s lives. At some point the gravy train will be on a side track and like former empires, we will have squandered all our true wealth and values for instant gratification and tolerance of corruption. Have you noticed that it’s gen X that is trying to stop spending? Why do you think? The only question left is; will we get boomers out of the way and reset with limits OR will we be moved to a totalitarian government? Indications now are that the Z’s would’nt mind that! It’s going to get messy!
– Republicans making fools of themselves again.
This remains to be seen, as we are in an entirely new arena, and a lot of the rules have been changed. Some of those will be used accordingly by both sides, but where the leverage is, will determine who the Fool will be.
– This time, there will not be a huge baby boomer led recovery.
Which is exactly why BOTH Parties should be onboard with Stopping The Spending.
– It’s not just money, it’s also about where the money goes. Some Republicans want to cut Ukraine funding totally, but others want to increase it.
See above
– Holding up bills in the House over Ukraine spending only to back down later is a waste of time.
See Above
– Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said Tuesday that McCarthy is “out of compliance” with the terms of the deal he made with conservatives to become speaker.
Mr. Gaetz would be correct in that sentence. Deals were put into place to assure McCarthy or anyone else in that seat (not personal) to stay to the Agreed Upon Deal or be gone. Time will tell if it has to come to that, but if so it is for one party breaking the deal agreed upon by both parties.
I agree completely with your statement that “we are in an entirely new arena”.
And what we are watching is professional wrestling.
1) The Fed wants your money. They either get it with 5.5%, or by raiding your
bank account.
2) Gov debt tripled in 13 years from 10T in Q2 2008 to 33T.
3) Dem : if they dare shutting the gov down voters will blame the republican for the mess.
4) The CBO extrapolates debt % to GDP in the next 30 years, omitting recessions
and a republican civil wars.
5) The republican might kick the can down until the Dow reaches 37K/40K,
1.13 above Nov 2021, striking back to reduce gov debt. The Shark attacks might last until Nov 2024, or beyond.
Note that currently, all of the federal government spending save for interest, entitlements and defense comes from increased borrowing.
Its really pathetic. And as always the party of stupid will be made to look even dumber by the party of corruption
That’s what happens when you elect nihilists.
DOD is big but even cutting it to zero wouldn’t solve our problem. Gotta give the old folks a haircut on their bennies one way or another, or let in a LOT more immigrants to pay taxes and SS. Or a mix.
Both solutions are politically toxic, so we’ll muddle along until something breaks.
I agree with most of this especially the hypocrisy part, but what would you have the holdouts do? Vote for another 2 trillion dollar deficit? They have been accused of burning it down, but really the building is already on fire, and the group, hypocritical though they may be, that wants to pour smaller cups of gasoline on the fire are the “extremists”.
The solutions they want are irrelevant, though, and their goals have nothing to do with the deficit and everything to do with winning their next primary, which they’ve all proven multiple times during the previous administration.
You’re spouting MASSIVE BS!!! I don’t even have to read Mish’s article to know that I would 100% disagree with him & you.
We’re $33T in debt. We are looking at nearly $2T structural deficits for the foreseeable future. Annualized total interest expense was $970B at the end of Q2. The Q3 number should hit in late October.
America has arrived at the moment when we have to do something. And the core of what these holdouts want is 12 separate spending bills.
It’s time to stop spending 95% of our time investigating the other party and actually start governing. So we have to start somewhere, and I fully support shutting down the government as long as it takes to achieve two goals: 12 appropriations bills & a secure border. That’s a freaking start.
Joe Biden & his entire administration are a national embarrassment.
What specifically do you disagree with? If we want a balanced budget, we have to stop spending money on old people, raise taxes, and/or let in more immigrants to generate more SS and tax revenue (and take care of all those old people we’re spending less money on).
There’s nothing that Gaetz et al are suggesting that will move the needle here, it’s just political theater.
I’m for doing everything to stop the
run away spending, lack of enforcement of EXISTING IMMIGRATION LAWS, neocon perpetual wars
seeking to destroy 99% of WE THE PEOPLE
fake media will spin accordingly
but we NO LONGER CARE