Total housing starts declined 6.8 percent in July, on top of a 1.8 percentage point negative revision.
The New Residential Construction stats for July were a disaster.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,396,000.
- This is 4.0 percent below the revised June rate of 1,454,000 and is 7.0 percent below the July 2023 rate of 1,501,000.
- Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 938,000; this is 0.1 percent below the revised June figure of 939,000.
- Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 408,000 in July.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000. This is 6.8 percent (±10.3 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,329,000 and is 16.0 percent (±10.5 percent) below the July 2023 rate of 1,473,000.
- Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 851,000; this is 14.1 percent (±8.3 percent) below the revised June figure of 991,000.
- The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 363,000.
Housing Completions
- Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,529,000. This is 9.8 percent (±8.4 percent) below the revised June estimate of 1,696,000, but is 13.8 percent (±13.9 percent) above the July 2023 rate of 1,343,000.
- Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,054,000; this is 0.5 percent (±10.4 percent)* above the revised June rate of 1,049,000.
- The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 473,000.
Month-Over-Month Margins of Error
- ±10.3 percent for starts
- ±8.4 percent for completions
Housing Starts 1959-Present
As a point of reference, starts are 25.3 percent below the January 1959 level of 1,657.
Housing Starts, Permits, Completions
Housing Units Under Construction
Housing Activity Peaked Summer of 2022
Based on units under construction, housing peaked in the summer of 2022 as mortgage rates shot over 5.0 percent.
Yet, home prices kept rising as existing-home sales plunged. Nobody wanted to trade a 3.0 percent mortgage for one much higher, currently about 6.5 percent.
Homebuilder rate buydowns are not enough to stimulate housing.
If this looks recessionary, it’s because a recession has begun.
Recession Underway
July 25, 2024: “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
August 2: 2024: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
August 15, 2024: Industrial Production Declines 0.6 Percent on Top of Big Negative Revisions
It seems to me that all hell breaking loose.
Those are compelling charts. Numbers for all categories are lower than the peak leading up to COVID shutdowns. This is clearly due to Bidenomics. Anyone with a mortgage above 7.5% will have a short window to refinance at 6% very shortly.
Under construction total and multi are about the same level as 1972 high, 50Y ago. The multi, maily urban in 1972, reached nadir during the S/L crisis 1993, when 6,000 banks vanished. Since 2012 most multi are financed by gov entities, as during LBJ and Nixon. Since 2012 the multi are owned by the rich along with stocks, bonds and commercial RE, to collect rent. Single houses are owned by moms and pops. The rich decided to curtail the multi under construction investments.
Are you artificially stupid or this is natural to you?!
Zero percent interest rates in 2025+ will give you all the housing you need, and then some. Plus the hedge funds and private equity will be able to hold onto their RE portfolios — 5000 families will own everything. Everyone else will be minimum wage and renters for life.
Exactly
Sounds like feudalism.
The one proposal any presidential candidate can make is to mandate ownership by employees. Effectively, there can be no work until the employee is also a shareholder. This has worked in tech for decades and made many people better off. Pay is the dumbest mechanism that unions always go to but profit sharing and other similar systems would go a long way towards alleviating the wealth gap in America.
The president can’t mandate ownership of assets. That would be struck down in a nano second by the supreme court.
… like mandating car design (MPG and safety), or a consumer purchase (health care / obamacare) or a medical experiment (vax) or emissions that feed plants (CO2) or …?
Pretty soon you’ll be quoting the Constitution (make sure not to look at the 10th amendment as it has been done for past ~100 years).
This is really not a problem at all. Camela has Promised to build 3 million new homes. Boom – problem solved lol
Thesis: Are SFRs important anymore?
Reality is few people are value-add enough (as measured by salary) to justify a modern (aka 4+ bed; 3+ bath) single-family house. That’s top 10% earners.
Houses of 1950s-70s weren’t well built (2×4 beams resting on coffee-can sized concrete footing), were small, and now need major repairs/refurbs. However, land was cheaper so they flourished.
The return to the row-houses of early 1900s (dozens of townhomes in 4-8 packs). Better get along with your neighbor and follow the CC&Rs!
The pre-fab trend will continue with large sections, trusses, walls built in rural areas then shipped to the cities.
Bottom-line: Watch for multi-family permits not just SFRs.
The point here is that no housing starts equals no work or income for the asssociated industries. Also means average housing costs go up even more. Of course if you’re Obama/Obiden and Harris it’s “Mission Accomplished!”
Agree – SFRs are inefficient and expensive – resulting in job creation.
Rather than SFRs, a more efficient future puts shacks close to jobs:
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-warehouse-mexico-cheered-by-locals-viral-photo-2021-9
No problem, when Kamala gets in, she’ll simply fix the price of houses.
I am actually glad the next generation is saying no to corporatism and corporate slavery.
Not having kids is saying no to the system. That’s what all of these politicians don’t get.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanavalko/why-millennials-dont-have-kids
The next generations of people will increasingly say no to everything and businessmen and politicians will have no good options.
The idea that people can’t afford kids and this is giving the middle finger to corporations is noble?
Having kids as a personal decision. For any who would want to have kids… Saying no, seems like fighting off your nose despite your faith
If you want to fight the system – Have MORE kids. And teach them well!
Otherwise your family will just be replaced by an immigrant one and the system will carry on…
All of you missed the point. Poor people get stuck in a debt slave trap for generations. It is actually a good thing they don’t and stop and make different decisions than the generations before them. This goes for immigrants and non-immigrants, legal or illegal. The internet and social media has made the masses more aware of what’s going on. It will be increasingly harder for corporatists to get work done. I believe this is only the beginning of that awareness the internet has created. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
Private home ownership is NOT on their agenda.
Mish almost made this point, but let’s make it explicit: A downtrend leading to this level of starts was seen in 9 of the past 10 recessions, and only one time that wasn’t labeled a recession.
A lot of Hispanics will be unemployed and voting Republican this November. Hispanics are 19% of the population and blacks only 13% of the population. Of course Hispanics voted for President Trump both times he won. The corruption election fraud is mostly from welfare and government parasites. Hard working Hispanic construction workers not at all.
The election is fixed. They do not even COUNT the votes. It is all fed into a database and then the operators decide. This is why voting is like smokin’ the good crack.
Gave it up in 92 when they trashed my candidate Ross Perot
I last voted in 2000, never to vote again until None Of The Above is a ballot option. ❤️ Mark 12:30-31
Both times ? LOL.
Hispanic males love dictators. But if dictators worked out so well in central and Latin America, why are Hispanic males still coming to the US ?
Just wait for Kamala to build 3 million new homes. Don’t know how she is going to do it considering they could barely build a single charging station.
Just remember, whoever does build it, that “You didn’t build that yourself”
A van down by the river is the new “American Dream”.
no longer true. with the surpreme court ruling the unhoused may be streamlined into jail/internment camps, starting with fines, and then jail time.
soon america will be full of district 9 like internment camp full of people who are working, but can’t afford housing or don’t want to live with 11 other people in an 800 sq ft apartment.
Post a citation for your “surpreme court ruling,” please. Also, use spellcheck and or proof your Comment(s) before posting. The Dumbing Down of the US has obviously far exceeded the Left’s expectations. ❤️ Mark 12:30-31
the surpreme court case citation is grants pass v johnson: 6 dirtbags prevailing over 3 semi-qualified judges in another case from a series of disastrous recent surpreme court rulings that should be disregarded by responsible citizens . . . do you have a source for ‘mark 12:30-31?’
So long as there is one babe in the ten others, with long legs, pretty eyes, a fine butt and a slight over-bite: I will be FINE.
Hey some of those vans are quite comfortable ya know Bucket toilet technology is very efficient
As Kamala Antoinette once said: ‘Let them eat coconuts’