Since President Biden stepped down from the election, the candidate names for have changed, but the issues haven’t. That’s important.
Of those 18-34, 42 percent cite inflation/economy as their number one issue. That contrasts with 34 percent in age group 65+.
Candidate Preference by Age Group
Pew Research shows Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points in 2020.
Things have changed profoundly.
The USAToday-Suffolk poll shows the plus 20 percentage-point edge for Biden for age group 18-34 in 2020 fell to an 11 percentage-point deficit.
Kennedy now has 12 percent of the vote.
The USAToday-Suffolk poll is stale due to Biden dropping out, but even if all the Kennedy supporters switched to Kamala Harris, she would only get back to even.
The problem for Democrats is that Harris might need a strong positive number to win.
USAToday Suffolk Candidate Preference by Race
In contrast to a 92% to 8% margin for Biden in 2020, the USAToday-Suffolk poll shows the margin is down to 63-16.
And more Hispanics favor Trump over Biden.
Again, that is a stale poll, but an 84 percentage-point gap with Blacks is down to 47 percentage points.
It’s the Economy!
Weakening economic reports, especially jobs and delinquencies, explain the polls.
Young adults and blacks are the groups most impacted by the slowdown.
Unemployment Rate by Age Group
For those aged 16-19, the unemployment rate in June was 12.4 percent, up from 9.3 percent in April of 2023.
For those aged 20-24, the unemployment rate in June was 7.7 percent, up from 5.3 percent in April of 2023.
Unemployment Rate by Race
The unemployment rate is low, but it’s the direction that matters.
From the Spring 2023 lows, the unemployment rate for Blacks is up 1.5 percentage point vs 0.7 percentage points for Whites and 1.2 percentage points for Hispanics.
Cost of Rent
BLS data also show the cost of rent rose at least 0.4 percent for 33 consecutive months starting September 2021 through May 2024.
That streak ended in June when rent rose 0.3 percent.
Housing Unaffordability
Those who rent have been hammered by rising home prices coupled with mortgage rates near 7 percent.
The National Association of Realtors reported on July 23, “The median existing-home sales price bounced 4.1% from June 2023 to $426,900 – the second straight month it reached an all-time high and the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.”
Economic Well-Being Has Peaked
The above chart is from the Federal Reserve Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households
Zoomers and younger Millennials are struggling mightily as the next set of charts show.
Transition into Serious 90+ Auto New York Fed Quarterly Report
The above is from the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for 2024 Q1.
Serious auto loan delinquencies are on the rise everywhere, especially age groups 18-39.
Maxed Out Credit Card Users
Of those who have maxed out their credit, about 33 percent are delinquent.
Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards
The preceding two charts are from the New York Fed report Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
Generational Homeownership Rates
As of 2022, only 39 percent of those under the age of 35 own a home. In contrast, the homeownership rate is over 70 percent in every age group 45 and older.
Due to rising home prices and decreasing affordability, the percentage ownership of those under age 35 is likely lower than the 39 percent shown above.
Home Ownership Rates by Race
There is nearly a 20 percentage-point difference between Blacks and Whites in homeownership rates.
Generation Z Credit Stress
The above image is from the Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics via the Wall Street Journal.
The Data Explains the Polls
- About 27 percent of renters have some unpaid bills.
- About 12 percent of renters have delayed water, gas, or electricity payments.
- It’s younger adults and blacks who rent.
There are no political polls on voting preference that show rent status, but there should be. Which way struggling renters ultimately break is likely to decide the election.
Challenge for Harris
I believe a recession has started as explained on July 7 and again on August 2.
For discussion, please see The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
The challenge for Kamala Harris is to regain share of young voters and blacks who are increasingly for Trump or Kennedy or may sit the election out disenchanted, while not losing voters to moderates leery about Progressive policies.
That will be very difficult given Harris’ choice for Vice President.
For discussion, please see How Progressive is Tim Walz, Kama Harris’ VP Running Mate?
Sorry for my rude, immature outbursts, recently. I was upset about what I perceived was the country’s trajectory but that is no excuse to rant on here. Thank you for all the work you do providing timely, important, accurate, information in an interesting format and for providing a forum for discussion and debate.
Both Mish and Trump need reminding that Biden has dropped out of the race. Harris is already leading avg 9 points among young voters. And it’s only been 1 month. By the time this is done, old Trump will be crushed among the youth demo. He still has a chance; but it’s looking ugly.
Not sure I buy this premise. After all, they have to vote.
I think to put it more concisely, “The problem for Democrats is that Harris” – from the 9th paragraph above.
The latest NYT-Siena poll for Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina confirms the picture for the blue wall states: Harris has won back young and black voters. It’s the age, stupid. Trump’s ramblings that it’s more honorable to contribute to his campaign than to die for this country may not even help with the MAGA base.
I thought the election was in the hands of Muslim voters in southeast Michigan (Detroit area).
its actually in the hands of voting machine makers, all else is distraction to keep you from noticing. The magicians real trick is distraction.
Of all the polls & surveys, NONE asked:
What do you think caused the inflation / economic problems?
I doubt even 1 percent would point to the Central Bank.
Without understanding, there will not be a solution.
It is not the Central Bank – other than Asset Inflation
It is out of control govt spending, more accurately the combination
Yeah Mister Mish, I listened to the expert demographer Ken Gronbach who said about the younger generation being a major factor in this November’s election, and they want a more activist government.
A government big enough to give youth all they desire, can take it all away from them in the blink of a draft notice..The dems are the new warmongers, they’ll need an army of stupified youth to get their limit in foreign scalps.
watch for the new “Military Standards” allowing anyone breathing to partake in the the glory and plunder of war, such as it is for those dying in trenches and on beaches. For the glory of Harris and the “Free house on 2 acres” for those who survive the war and bring Victory to Harris on the battlefield.
Hile Harris!!! – mandatory Tattoo for all military after the election.
Well, when both major party candidates suck, ’cause their parties suck, does it really matter much whichever swing voters they win? Sadly, the American people overwhelmingly voted for the communist uniparty candidates in the primaries last year. What’s it gonna take for people to realize the effed up situation this campaign donations and lobbying has done to corrupt the system. Sorry so negative but they keep doubling down on bull crap and it’s becoming more communist.
As Tom Lehrer would say, I feel like a Christian Scientist with acute appendicitis
It is insanity to believe Donald Trump will do anything at all to fix this that’s in the interest of the country.
is it insanity, or merely a bias inserted by propaganda 24/7 from opposition media aka the government. I don’t think any figure in my lifetime has been as vilified by the government and media and their puppets paid and unpaid.
When so many make so much noise to push us in the direction of Harris, one must wonder at the real reasons for Harris is now the MRNA vaccine we must all take or die.
Regardless of who is in the WH for the next 4 years, will the outcome really be different given the structural economic issues? Either one will ultimately go down in history as owning a crisis.
It absolutely matters, as any real change starts at the top. Biden Inc. already owns the crisis, it’s more will anybody be able to and want to fix it. It will come at a cost…
Actually, Biden does not own it. I am assuming you are talking about inflation / economic conditions.
Inflation is similar or higher in most countries in the world, and economic conditions are far better in U.S. than virtually every other country
The only common causative factors, world-wide, are common actions by dozens of Central Bankers, regardless of political leaders / dictators.
When it comes to U.S. economic data, facts and logic are not going to take you anywhere at this point. I have no doubts that if Trump would have presided over the economy of the last 3 1/2 years, he would relentlessly boast that the recent U.S. economic performance is the best ever in the history of the Universe.
Biden Inc. most certainly owns all of it! inflation was extremely low when he took office. The third free money drop was totally unnecessary, and none of the money went to help, but rather it caused more economic pain and much higher inflation. The Republicans, and definitely Trump, had absolutely nothing to do with any of it.
High Inflation = Biden/Harris, The open Border = Harris/Biden, The DEI disgrace = Biden/Harris, The massive Crime Surge = Harris/Biden.
I could do this all day… P.S. This happens to be My/Our Country we are talking about, as in America, in case You forgot.I don’t give a rats ass about anyplace else on earth, in terms of our Horrific Economy, and Massive Inflation at this very moment in time (Hence Harris/Biden Owned Fully!!!).
it will come at a cost, as do all good things in life…
This isn’t a “Good” thing, is the huge difference.
Are the Citizens going to accept very high unemployment, because of the misdeeds of Biden Inc.?
Are the Renters going to be happy with very high rents, due to the massive missteps of Biden Inc.?
Are the Citizens going to be happy with extremely high energy cost, due to the ignorance of Biden Inc.?
Are people right now Under The Leadership of Harris/Biden, overall happy with their 401K Plan losses? Stock Market losses? High Rent? High Inflation? Extremely High Crime, Wide Open Borders? I could go on all day here too…
The answer is a “Loud & Clear:” Hell No!!!
The biggest threat to democracy is Kamala Harris and the 1984 party. Excuse me, I meant to say Democrat party. Easy to mix the two up.
Newsflash: there are no more $400 emergencies more like 1000 minimum. This countries gone to hell.
country’s not countries
Yes i know that but thx.
more like people’s priorities have gone to hell, a 1000$ iphone on credit, but not a cent in the savings account. A 400$ tattoo, but not a weeks worth of groceries in the house.
Once it was seen as good, right and proper to lead a small happy life. Now its bling 24/7 loud and louder, and the stupider the better.
Days spent with their faces against a screen, and nights yet again, the attention span of a gnat and no time to accomplish anything, because too busy watching and wanting, and waiting to be discovered.
Sometimes we make our own hell…..
I agrèe to an extent. Where I dont agree is someone who had things under control before everything costs 3x as much. Living within your means a few years ago and making the same $ today could see you from a house to a homeless encampment. But heh…we got that 30% credit card paid off.
I agree with a previous article on here about how things might go to total hell in short order.
The NYT-Siena poll for the blue wall states has Harris up among younger voters (NYT-Siena uses 18-29 bracket) by 15 points. Things have changed. Trump’s problem is that there were two old farts with mental issues running before Biden dropped out. Now Trump is the only old fart with mental issues left in the race, and Trump seems to be keen to put his mental issues front and center by giving dismal public performances. As regards economic platforms, there is a remarkable convergence between Harris’s and Trump’s populist promises. I don’t think the economy will matter much this time. This time, it’s the age, stupid.
Keep dreaming its not about the economy and the massaged economic stats coming out of the federal bureaucracy. And keep dreaming the Harris Biden regime did not have an open border.
Both Harris and Trump run as economic populists. The big difference is that the former is a young and optimistic populist and the latter is an old and washed out populist. On the border, it was Trump that sabotaged the Lankford bill. And don’t get me going about the military and veterans … I hope it’s only his mental decline that makes Trump say the stupid things he is saying.
it is always good underestimate your opponent. Trump is so bad, Harris is copying his platform wholesale including closing the border.
Exit polls in 2020 show Biden won the young vote (18-29) by 60% to Trump’s 36%.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
Even if Harris increases her lead in this age group from 15% to 24% (same as Biden’s) it does not guarantee winning the key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada
https://theconversation.com/most-young-voters-support-kamala-harris-but-that-doesnt-guarantee-they-will-show-up-at-the-polls-236468
Arizona and Nevada have a large percentage of young voting population (a lot of Hispanics/Latinos) and Trump is still ahead in those states
It’s the momentum that wins elections. Trump has negative momentum, and he does everything to increase his negative momentum.
Bread and Circus, but at levels beyond surreal. The more knowledge is available at one’s fingertips, the more idiotic the populace becomes.
They seek not knowledge or wisdom but distraction and then wonder at the state of their lives and country. Its a Tik-Tok democracy. I’ve seen hamsters with longer attention spans and I.Q.’s
55% of blacks and 51% latinos don’t own a home. They either rent or cluster together with a family member, rent free, working and saving money. 50% of zoomers and millennials are non white. Homeownership of zoomers and most millenials is 39%. Ex Asian, American indians and all other races, that are small numbers, blacks and latinos buy the most since 2016, bought the most, but not since 2022.
You dumped the data on us but never said what is your point that it proves.
He does that a lot. That’s why I stopped reading his nonsensical posts!
so our 26 year old mexican son has already bought/sold 1st home(back in 2020) and now is getting ready to build new home using C A S H
he has HIGH SCHOOL diploma = no college
Michael, can you break it into smaller segments that we can play against each other for economic and political leverage. What about gay, bisexual, left handed women who were formerly men? or white women who have at least 3 face tattoos? How do the people who drive electric vehicles while watching youtube want to vote?
We must subjugate the data, before we can subjugate the populace!
hate to ask you to work the weekend, but can you get right on this and have a powerpoint deck ready for monday’s zoom. dem’s need to brainstorm this and get the message tweaked for all still breathing. They have the dead vote in the bag, already…
The Selection has already been made. Fify
It’s a bit odd but I think abortion plus free stuff wins the day for Cackleberry. They’ll keep the stats safe until after November with “revisions”. Walz is supposedly pro China which might help prevent war (if true, ha ha)
Pro china Walz? I heard he’s a major in the Red Army and knows the Chairman quite well – well enough to attend dinner parties in the forbidden city.
Based on your analysis, it is obvious why Kamala has focused on the following:
Where she has failed to do so far:
But, these are easy ways to get more votes, and I’m sure they will come up at the Convention.
stop GRADUATE student loans and all above goes away
What does this mean? Stop issuing loans? Free graduate education?
its just some AI testing by the 3 letter agencies. They are still probing stimulus/results training for pre election trolling in forums.
Attached per omega4america.substack.com , It is already game over, enjoy….
https://rumble.com/v586avp-fractal-stopping-ngo-illegal-alien-ballot-mills-2024.html
The challenge for Kamala Harris is to regain share of young voters and blacks who are increasingly for Trump or Kennedy or may sit the election out disenchanted, while not losing voters to moderates leery about Progressive policies.
—
It depends on if the young voters show up first. Younger voters tend to vote the least. I think there is also a good chunk of Republicans who will never vote for Donald and do everything they can keep him out of office. Harris’s challenges are going to wane come September imo. Donald will be back in court and is already pleading election interference despite being a convicted felon. Seems impossible that Donald is going to get positive news cycles. With Biden/Donald this election was mainly about the economy but it appears Harris will increase turnout where neither Biden nor Donald could.
Kamala Cun’t win.
26 days and counting
Kamala = no interviews
must be COVID cellar syndrome
I like your cousin Suspicious0bserver, much better. At least he spends all his time watching the sun for incoming eruptions.
The election is in the hands of the “CIA” as they have been since 2020
And vacuous Kamala is the CIA candidate
So…4th turning here we come
Selection
since the Kennedy assination..LBJ’s viet nam war was his price for election by the cia. and their snipers.
It is amazing to me that it now seems the US Government has been run by the CIA since before I was born
Young voters trending Trump but will they vote reliably like the oldsters?
Nope. Historically, young voters don’t turn out
Black turnout will be low because they don’t like the fake black Kamala. Plantation Negroes who do vote will vote the Democrat party line.
I can’t believe Kamala herself started pushing the coconut meme. Outing herself as a coconut?