The Wells Fargo Housing Market Index details remain severely depressed.
Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) details for March 2026.
Signs of Market Cooling
The latest HMI survey revealed that 37% of builders cut prices in March, up slightly from 36% in February.
The average price reduction remained stable at 6%.
The use of sales incentives was 64% in March, down one percentage point from February, and marking the 12th consecutive month this share has exceeded 60%.
NAHB Key Findings
- Current sales conditions increased one point to 42.
- Sales expectations in the next six months gained two points to 49.
- Traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point increase to 25.
NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Index vs Mortgage Rates
NAHB traffic and the overall index remain in the gutter despite falling mortgage rates.
The NAHB report is through March, mortgage rates are Freddie Mac through February.
I use Freddie Mac because the St. Louis Fed (FRED) has a data feed.
But Freddie Mac is delayed and not as accurate as Mortgage News Daily. MND includes points and fees in its data.
Mortgage Rates Highest in Six Months
After falling to 6.0 percent, the MND average 30-year rate shot up to 6.41 percent yesterday. It’s now 6.36 percent.
Don’t expect housing to contribute anything to GDP in the first quarter of 2026.
The expected commerce department release of Housing Starts and Permits, due out today has been postponed.
Related Posts
March 12, 2026: Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
A Bloomberg article comments on something I have been discussing for months.
March 13, 2026: Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimate Cut in Half. What Happened?
The BEA knocked its fourth-quarter estimate from 1.4 percent to 0.7 percent. Details below.
March 13, 2026: How Much Did AI Spending Contribute to Revised Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP?
Over 100 percent of fourth quarter GDP was AI related. What happened?
March 15, 2026: US Secretary of Energy Says High Gasoline Prices Might Last Weeks
Given that diesel and fertilizer prices are soaring, I have a question.
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) forecasts a 2026 housing market rebound, with existing-home sales projected to increase by 14% due to easing mortgage rates (expected near 6%) and improved inventory. Home prices are expected to rise by 4%, driven by steady demand and ongoing, though slowly easing, supply shortages.
The biggest conspiracy in the world is that banks lend deposits.
The FOMC watches real rates of interest to judge whether policy is actually restrictive or stimulative, even if the effective federal funds rate hasn’t changed. Inflation expectations are unanchored.
If you want lower asset prices, you do like Bernanke did, you drain reserves for 29 contiguous months.
The Covid free money and low interest rates with the inflation leap of the Democrat administration 2020-2024 has LOCKED UP the Housing market.until further notice.
Only the high earners and wealthy can afford a house at this time
Inflationary depression. Lives on hold.
But at least we get the new math of
“inflationary depression” + “AI spending” = “protracted recession”
which still gives “lives on hold” = “5 years of delayed milestones”
Spoke with my banker and two more local farms are going back to the bank and much of the equipment back to the vendors. Rolling Coal pickup back to the Ford dealer! For small family farms? It is a bloodbath in the midwest. Five total farms in my county and of them two are interesting to me for fifty to sixty cents on the dollar of debt.
Even with the increase in the price of corn, soy and the derivative oils.
Heartache in the Heartland with more wingdings in West Texas.
More of the taco economic program at work.
I follow a handful of markets very closely to the point of getting daily updates for anything listed, sold or price reduction (no one is increasing their price)
[1] Market slowed immediately when the “war” began
[2] Things are still selling, but volume much reduced even before the “war” started
[3] Price reductions are happening with more frequency (but not to GMTFON now levels)
[4] In just the past few days quite a few new listings have popped up at levels definitely below current listings (on a comparative basis — i.e., price below current listed comp and hope for the quick sale), could be the start of a “baby GMON”…certainly not GMTFON
To summarize: BEARISH
Oatmeal. It’s what’s for dinner.
Good for the colon but most will spike blood sugar. Eat with fat (eg butter) to moderate.
I went to look at a property this weekend. They wanted $350k after knocking 10k off. The house had new carpet and paint but non-carpet flooring, bathrooms & kitchen needed a remodel and the house needed a new roof. I figure that’s 100k of investment to remodel. It’s been on market for 90 days.
A few weekends ago saw a brand new house and was selling for $390k.
Which one would you buy? This housing market is totally out of whack. In both cases there’s no way you’d get $3500 to $4000 in rent for these houses, maybe half that so yeah, this housing market is still out of whack.
+ Everything Has Doubled At The Hardware Stores.!
I’ve looked at some new houses in that price range, and they were like trailers without wheels. If you bounce on the kitchen floor, the cabinets shake.
The choice is between something you might be able to make right and something that will never be right.
You’d need to say something about the 2 neighborhoods (good/bad schools, close to jobs, transit if major city etc) to get a better idea of whether the 350+ remodel is worth it over the 390 new place.
It’s still location, location, location.
And then make sure which government schools are closing. 2 in my upscale school district will be shuttered next year.
Yeah there are 8 schools closing in the city and more scheduled – demographic death spiral.
I live in the city man, the heart of the action. This house was in a good location which is why I was there in the first place but priced all wrong. I’m going to wait for the global recession or depression, I know Trump will get us there eventually.
You do realize of course, that housing is very, very regional. Because where we are, housing is still doing very well- now keep in mind doing well at the probably $650K and up price point. Which can, depending once again on what is going on in the area under discussion, can buck larger housing market trends in lots of places. Still not enough of the over-all sales numbers in that range to offset massive slowdowns below that price point.
some kind of AI induced world salad!
btw, where is your nice good market? what county/state?
These stories always get flooded with “not in my area!” comments – same thing happens at Wolf Street as well. Real estate shills are tireless.
Yes, higher income folks doing well. Lower not so much. Too bad there aren’t a much higher percentage of upper vs lower income citizens.