The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following New Residential Construction statistics for August 2019.
Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,419,000. This is 7.7 percent above the revised July rate of 1,317,000 and is 12.0 percent above the August 2018 rate of 1,267,000. Single‐family authorizations in August were at a rate of 866,000; this is 4.5 percent above the revised July figure of 829,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 509,000 in August.
Housing Starts
Privately‐owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,364,000. This is 12.3 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,215,000 and is 6.6 percent above the August 2018 rate of 1,279,000. Single‐family housing starts in August were at a rate of 919,000; this is 4.4 percent above the revised July figure of 880,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 424,000.
Housing Completions
Privately‐owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,294,000. This is 2.4 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,264,000 and is 5.0 percent above the August 2018 rate of 1,232,000. Single‐family housing completions in August were at a rate of 945,000; this is 3.7 percent above the revised July rate of 911,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 338,000.
FOMC Decision Coming UP
These are strong numbers yet the CME Fedwatch Data shows a 70.4% chance of a cut today, up from 48.5% yesterday.
Some suggest the CME numbers were corrupted yesterday by the strange repo action yesterday in which US Overnight Interest Rate Surges to 10%, Fed Injects Emergency $75 Billion.
It’s likely that lower interest rates spurred some housing action.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The numbers for single-family starts and permits were pretty tame considering mortgage interest rates were almost a full percentage point lower this August compared to last year. We should have been seeing double-digit increases, but builders were still being cautious…for good reason.
Most of the jump was in multi unit dwellings. Apartment building rentals. Not sure how sensitive they are to interest rates.
Party time!
QE is back. Fed buying junk debt from banks to keep interbank lending operations from collapsing. More interest rate cuts in the works. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-has-lost-control-rates-again