Housing starts, permits, and completions jumped in August, especially completions. Here are the details. 
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,475,000.
- This is 4.9 percent above the revised July rate of 1,406,000, but is 6.5 percent below the August 2023 rate of 1,578,000.
- Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 967,000; this is 2.8 percent above the revised July figure of 941,000.
- Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 451,000 in August.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,356,000.
- This is 9.6 percent (±11.4 percent) above the revised July estimate of 1,237,000 and is 3.9 percent (±13.0 percent) above the August 2023 rate of 1,305,000.
- Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 992,000; this is 15.8 percent (±12.0 percent) above the revised July figure of 857,000.
- The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 333,000.
Housing Completions
- Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,788,000.
- This is 9.2 percent (±28.2 percent) above the revised July estimate of 1,637,000 and is 30.2 percent (±31.9 percent) above the August 2023 rate of 1,373,000.
- Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 1,029,000; this is 5.6 percent (±11.9 percent) below the revised July rate of 1,090,000.
- The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 740,000.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for a 5.1 percent bounce in starts. The actual bounce was 9.6 percent from a tiny negative revision.
Completions huge positive revisions. Completions jumped 16.9 percent vs original posted July numbers. I will discuss completions in a separate post.
Details from the Census Bureau New Residential Construction report.
Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family
The trend on starts is negative, especially multi-family.
Housing Starts 1959-Present
To put the “strong” housing report numbers into proper perspective, starts are 18 percent below January of 1959.
The trend is down by quarter not up.
we had several dozens of 1/2 built sub-divisions
we have 1 ‘low cost’ that was going to be under $200k pre-covid
now $300k for low income people of course in sketchy neighborhood
Residential loans per FRED are flat (commercial banks).
Job hirings are flat so only a matter of time before long term unemployment rises and unemployment too. Once unemployment rises residential loans through banks and non banks decrease.
“Completions huge positive revisions. Completions jumped 16.9 percent vs original posted July numbers.”
Mish,
Many thanks for handling this in an entire upcoming post.
I understand that any survey/etc. (by anybody, including the Feds) is going to have a reasonable margin for error.
But…
With this and the huge (and hugely lagged) “payroll adds” revision, the Feds seem to making *more* and *larger* mistakes – long after any “pandemic era” excuses hold water.
And nobody in DC is stepping up to explain why *in the Internet/instant, far-flung communication” era survey accuracy seems to be getting *worse*.
Everybody uses this data to make decisions…and the methodologies seem to be getting *worse*
It really makes you wonder what the hell is going on in DC, in the most basic terms.
What would be a good number of housing starts. Population growth is flat, death rates should be increasing with the aging of baby boomers so what would be an ideal number of starts to meet the need.
800,000 units are condemned every year. That is your base number of units that need to be built. Then add in population growth, divided by the size of the family unit, and you have a good guess.
Cats and dogs provide nice protein for new construction workers … Wait wut? Yes, its hard work. Meanwhile, Jerry has 10yr yields going stagflationary and initial whipsaw in stonks says oh my, is 50 bps a recession indicator? They must know something!
.5 from the Fed? Do they see the economy in a major recession? I guess they dont believe the nonsense data either
Affordable housing is not the problem in the USA; the problem is simply falling living standards. Housing is a noticeable symptom.
Starts will continue to fall as investors see fewer buyers that have enough income to: 1) save for down-payment; and 2) afford monthly payments.
PS – falling living standards not reflected in official USG statistics due to mis-calculation of inflation using hedonistic substitution and improper weightings … let’s say 2-3%/year for past 20-25 years.
Also, GDP is typically reported at the nation level, not per-capita.
This is the problem with trying to forecast the economy. With the simply massive government spending ongoing, GDPNow is tracking 3% for Q3 THREE PERCENT
Unreal. some of the yield curve is uninverting. 2s 10s is normal but only by 3 bps
It has been inverted for a very long time. Though not really longer than the 1980 event which briefly uninverted also so people conpare todays inversion length only with the front half of that inversion, when really they should be joined.
There is likely to be some stronger econ data coming., But then it will fall apart, especially if the CIA fails to kill Trump. They will back off all the BS so that it falls apart and they will then blame him for the coming depression.
Good news. Raise rates!