How Not to Buy the Dip in Tesla (or Anything Else)

Please consider Tesla Is Last Stronghold for Investors Buying the Dip in Tech Stocks

Tesla shares dropped 65% in 2022, their worst year on record. Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. sank 64%, and Netflix Inc. declined 51%. But tech and other growth stocks have rebounded to start the new year, buoyed by hopes that the Fed will slow its pace of rate increases. The S&P 500 has edged up 3.2% in January.

Abhas Gupta, a 41-year-old entrepreneur in Irvine, Calif., said he moved his whole equity portfolio into Tesla shares in 2018, enamored by its electric cars and promise of disruptive innovation. Last year, he lost his entire seven-figure retirement fund after taking out margin loans and using options to turbocharge his bets on Tesla, he said. Still, he said he is far from calling it quits.

“I basically burned a lifetime’s worth of wealth, but none of this has shaken my confidence in the company. There is just no company even remotely close to Tesla on innovation,” Mr. Gupta said.

“Why would I invest in a basket of dinosaurs?” he said of the S&P 500.

Mr. Gupta said he is aggressively buying long-dated call options on Tesla. Call options give traders the right, though not the obligation, to buy shares at a stated price by a certain date, while put options grant the right to sell.

Overall, options volume in Tesla has grown in the past few months, according to Cboe Global Markets. One of the largest options bets on Tesla is that shares will reach $825 in the next three years; the stock closed at $133.42 per share Friday.

2018 to 2021 Tesla Top

  • Gupta put his entire portfolio into Tesla in 2018. 
  • The range for the year was $11.80 to $25.83. 
  • Tesla peaked at $414.50
  • From $11.80 to the top, Gupta was up 3,413 percent
  • From $25.83 to the top, Gupta was up 1,505 percent

He lost every penny, buying the dip on margin. His largest position now is a bet that Tesla will reach $825 in three years.

If Tesla soars to $800, that won’t be good enough. He will lose every penny. Instead. if he bought shares outright at $110, and shares get to $800, he would make 627%. 

Apparently, that’s just not good enough. 

My guess is that he loses it all on those options. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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1-shot
1-shot
1 year ago
A couple of old sayings come to mind:
1. Easy come, easy go
2. You haven’t made a profit until you sell.
3. If it seems too good to be true, it is.
You have to be brain dead to not cash out at least part of a 30x (3,000%) profit!
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
A few years back I was skeptical of Tesla. Wasn’t sure if they could ever make an honest profit. I’ve changed my mind. They make a good product and seem to have figured out how to make money. They have almost no debt compared to their competition. And I suspect over the next 5 or so years, there will be a big fallout in the automotive sector and Tesla will be in good shape.
Do I consider them a good investment? No.
The problem is they’re a car company with a competitive edge now, but they’ll only hold that edge for a few more years at the most. Every other car company is going to be making EVs going forward and many will figure out how to make a car just as good for the same price. Many will be Chinese companies. Chinese companies will always have and advantage in that all the components are made in China and all things being equal, the Chinese government will favor them over a US company. The CCP could pull the plug on Tesla in retaliation for something our government does. And without China, Tesla is toast.
Carl_R
Carl_R
1 year ago
Is Tesla a tech stock, or an auto stock? Why or why not? It matters, because auto stocks are cyclical, and normally carry a PE about half the average of the S&P. The core question is, will Tesla be cyclical, and see sales declines during economic downturns, or will they continue to grow? If they are a cyclical, their PE should be perhaps 7. If they are a tech stock, the PE should be perhaps 20. With projected EPS of about $4/share, that means a stock price of perhaps $28 for a cyclical, and perhaps $80 for a tech stock.
shamrock
shamrock
1 year ago
Poor guy has a mental disorder that is common in the gamblers anonymous community.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
PapaDave, XOM might be backing up on 2014 high. There might be a correction, before moving up…I don’t want to influence your trading.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Thanks. Not worried about technicals or short term fluctuations. In fact I take advantage of short term fluctuations to trade a small portion of my portfolio.
And my long term core holdings are up so much over 2 years, and pay such high dividends, that fluctuations don’t bother me at all. I just keep looking at the long term trend in supply/demand and know that they will keep doing well for several more years, no matter what happens in the short run.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Tesla is increasingly subject to competition from other auto makers switching to EVs, and emerging EV companies. Competition drives out excess profits to a fair return on investment, with occasional exceptions for outstanding companies with unique products and valuable intellectual property enabling continued innovation (like Apple). Even then, it doesn’t last forever. Once the speculative fever goes down, a realistic value for Tesla will emerge. Until then, Las Vegas in a faux-debt-fueled teetering global economy makes no sense at all.
simb555
simb555
1 year ago
People with money are nuts to be in stocks when 3 mo risk free T bills get +4.5% and the Fed id still raising rates. every bear market since 1929 has hope rallies that suck in the dip buyers.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  simb555
We all think we’re smarter than the herd we’ve been following all our lives.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  simb555
Personally I like the return I get from from stocks. Over 140% total in the last two years. Why should I settle for 10% over 2 years?
Heck, my dividends are over 7%/a.
killben
killben
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Would it have made more sense to get some money off the table especially when you have made out like a bandit? That way while you may or may not make out like a bandit iwth the rest of your money at least you will not lose your shirt
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  killben

That’s what people here told me a year ago as well. I would have missed a lot of gains as a result. And as I have recently stated, I am no longer adding to my core position in oil and gas stocks, and I am now banking the substantial dividends that I am currently receiving. And I am looking for opportunities in renewables and tech.But I am still encouraging those with little exposure in oil and gas, that it is still a good time to invest. I expect 20+% returns going forward, even if oil prices stay where they are. And in the long run, I expect higher oil prices and even higher returns. But the enormous gains of the last two years will be difficult to repeat.

8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Papa,
XOM weekly misbehaved in the last 3M. It’s lows breached June and Aug highs. In order to move up there must be a close > Nov 7 high.
Breaching it isn’t good enough. Last week : a Hanging Man at the top. Last week high, a higher high > Jan 9 high. The speed : down in 3 weeks, up in 6, for fun only, to entertain PapaDave.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Interesting. Thanks.
However, my focus is on worldwide oil supply, demand and inventories; and capex spending. I still don’t know where the supply will be coming from to meet demand over the rest of this decade.
I also focus on company valuations and free cash flow levels, which are extremely enticing right now.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
XOM in 2018 was $60, today $113, plus $1/Qt dividends. Sunshine, sunset, u can live without a TSLA, but u can’t without XOM and CVX.
TSLA might breach the 2019 low, a lower low, below 2018. It’s an option, a call option, for fun and entertainment…
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Who was piling into tech whether profitable or not during the glorious ZIRP of our dear leaders?
Now those have some options. Not too profitable bank deposits, but better loosing a few percent on inflation than 50% on tech bets.
Since some already broached it, how solid are the banks going forward?
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago

He is one of those who play the market for excitement it gives him.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
I started buying the dip in Tesla, Netflix and Apple a few weeks ago after a very negative story from Mish, and all the subsequent commenters who piled on, some saying that Tesla was heading to 10. I mentioned buying the dip at the time.
Of course my version of “buying the dip” is in small amounts for a trade. I have bought and sold Tesla almost 20 times in the last few weeks. Last sold at 129. Waiting for the next pullback. Never chase.
Similar for Apple and Netflix, though far fewer trades.
I’m still heavily committed long term to a lot of oil and gas stocks. They have been kicking a** for two years now and are still undervalued. I don’t expect them to lead the market for a third year in a row, but I wouldn’t complain if they did. Balance Sheets and Free cash flow levels are outstanding.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
You picked a good time. 2023 will be the year of the Musk for more than Tesla.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
I am as tired of Musk as I am of Trump. I ignore them as much as I can, though it is difficult with all the media attention they get.
My focus (after family and friends) is on building my wealth. However, if I can make a few bucks from Tesla, I will.
But I don’t see it as a long term hold at this time. Just a trade.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
I always laugh when I hear some schmuck brag about using all the bells and whistles available with stocks. They think they sound sophisticated, but they’re the biggest fool in the room. He deserved to lose it all. That’s just what losers do.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
TSLA weekly gap : June 29/July 6 2020. TSLA backbone : July 13 hi/20 lo 2020 ; 119.67/9.10. TSLA breached the BB and popup.
Mish : don’t buy TSLA, not today !
Sunriver
Sunriver
1 year ago
I’m thinking ‘buy dinosaurs’ means buying oil companies. Exxon Mobil ConocoPhillips, Chevron, etc.
A slow grind up with dinosaurs through 2025, or risk it all with a call option betting on Tesla. Who’s margin per unit is dropping fast.
What is the great innovation in energy that will replace petroleum? Not sure, but it won’t happen by 2025.
Fusion power, solid state batteries, etc.wiill occur and I hope they do. But not by 2025.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Sunriver
Oil and gas stocks will do well for the rest of this decade because the world cannot get enough energy from renewables and nuclear at this time. That will change eventually, probably in the next decade. Till then, oil and gas firms (particularly Canadian companies) are a bargain.
Strong balance sheets. Low or no debt. Minimal capex spending needed to maintain production, all from cash flow. And lots of free cash flow that they are committing to return to shareholders.
Over 50% returns in 21 and 22. Expect 20+% returns for
many more years.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
I doubt many here would disagree with your underlying premises since they have been very obvious for most of a decade. The only question is when to buy. IMHO, buying XOM at $113, when it was trading at $34 in July 2020 simply isn’t smart. At $70 +/- (pre-covid) it is a different matter.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“I doubt many here would disagree with your underlying premises since they have been very obvious for most of a decade.”
Obvious for most of a decade! That’s so funny, because for over a year now, most folks here have been telling me I am crazy to invest in oil stocks and that oil is going back to under $50. The only people here who saw “the obvious” were Realist and Eddie, who aren’t even here anymore.
And I don’t recall anyone else saying they were investing in oil stocks because it was all so “obvious”.
Most people here are so scared of the “always approaching depression” that they are paralyzed with fear and will never invest.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Being cautious when dealing with uncertainty does not mean “they are paralyzed with fear and will never invest.” FYI, in the past, oil has always dropped significantly in recessions, but then, so has the stock market
There are times to be 100% cash, and there may even be a time when 100% gold is the place to be. What counts is the end result over the long term.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
So you are all in on gold then?
Probably not. Most people here will never say what they are invested in because they are too afraid to look stupid when it doesn’t work out. Or because they have no investments at all.
I’m guessing almost everyone here is 100% cash because they are all paralyzed with fear.
I know folks who never bought a house because they were always “afraid to buy at the top”. They would always wait for house prices to come back down. Then when prices did come back down, (once every 10 years or so) they were simply too afraid to pull the trigger.
Living your life in fear is far too common. I see a lot of that here.
Jackula
Jackula
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Sadly that’s me to a great extent. I have moved most of my investable money into gold outta SPY cause I’m old and can’t afford to lose much it…dumb I know I should be more diversified. I haven’t been able to pull the trigger on some energy stocks cause I keep thinking demand is gonna tank.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Jackula
You are not alone. I think you represent the majority here.
However, you are one of the few who is willing to admit it. I commend your honesty.
When I tell people here that I have been heavily invested in energy stocks for the last two years, I am opening myself up to criticism. Fortunately, I don’t care much about the critics.
A few people have said “thanks for the info”.
Some say “how do you know that everyone here isn’t already invested in oil stocks?” I reply; because they keep criticizing my investments in oil stocks, telling me they are going to crash during the next recession. They wouldn’t be doing that if they were invested in oil stocks.
Others say they don’t like to brag like me. Lol! Translation; they have nothing to brag about. And they are green with envy because they don’t have the balls to invest in risk assets.
Regarding your personal investments; why don’t you start small? A little bit at a time. No need to take big risks. Work tour way into it slowly.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
A bet on Tesla is a bet against more Elon jackassery. Not one I’d take.
Txdave
Txdave
1 year ago

Sounds like something you’d read about on the r/wallstreetbets subreddit. That space is known for people embellishing their stories of extreme loss to gain karma (essentially upvotes). Doesn’t sound like a legitimate story to me. Even if it were legitimate, it’s mostly an outlier. There’s far more people buying the dip a few shares at a time, others selling puts and getting assigned.

Mish
Mish
1 year ago
Reply to  Txdave
Never said it was normal, I said it was what not to do.
But yeah, margin debt is used a lot and it can be a killer.
Call_Me
Call_Me
1 year ago
Reply to  Txdave
“…said he moved his whole equity portfolio into Tesla shares in 2018,
enamored by its electric cars and promise of disruptive innovation. Last
year, he lost his entire seven-figure retirement fund after taking out
margin loans and using options to turbocharge his bets on Tesla, he
said.”
Easy come, easy go, a cautionary tale indeed!
Agree that the whole thing sounds quite sensationalized, if not made up whole cloth, but evidently it is enough to get into the WSJ. I don’t think the subject of the article would benefit from advertising their folly, but for the sake of argument they would have only had to invest about 29.5k at the $11.80 price to (barely) reach 7 figures. I think a natural question then would be would such a person gamble that away — and then discuss that with a reporter for a story in a major newspaper?
Call_Me_Al

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