Every February the BLS does annual benchmark revisions for the prior year. This year there were huge revisions. 
I will do my regular jobs report next, but first we need to discuss benchmark revisions.
Revisions to Establishment Survey Data
In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2024. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which counts jobs covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2023 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2020 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2020, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate other revisions.
The seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 589,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 598,000, or -0.4 percent. Not seasonally adjusted, the absolute average benchmark revision over the past 10 years is 0.1 percent.
The over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for March 2024 was revised from +2,900,000 to +2,346,000 (seasonally adjusted).
All revised historical establishment survey data are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm. In addition, an article that discusses the benchmark and post- benchmark revisions and other technical issues is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.
Establishment Survey Synopsis
- The BLS overstated nonfarm payrolls for March of 2024 by 589,000.
- More negative revisions are coming,
- The normal benchmark revision is +0.1 percent. This revision was -0.4 percent.
- In accordance with “normal practice” none of this will show up on historical charts. They are now bogus (and always have been) but this year is especially bad.
Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey
Effective with data for January 2025, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates their population estimates to incorporate new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the most recent population base year, typically the last decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics on births and deaths, and improvements in estimation methodology.
This year’s adjustment was large relative to adjustments in past years. It reflects both updated methodology and new information about net international migration in recent years.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS did not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2024 and earlier months. However, to show the impact of the population adjustments, table B displays differences in selected December 2024 labor force series based on the old and new population estimates.
Table B shows the adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and over in December by 2.9 million. The increases in population were relatively large for Asians and Hispanics.
The adjustment increased the total civilian labor force by 2.1 million, including increases of 2.0 million in employment and 105,000 in unemployment. The number of people not in the labor force increased by 765,000.
Although the effect on levels was relatively large, the effect on rates and ratios was small. The adjustment increased the total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate by 0.1 percentage point each.
The effects of the adjustment on these rates for the major worker groups were also relatively small. These annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time.
Table C shows the effect of the introduction of new population estimates on the change in selected labor force measures between December 2024 and January 2025.
Additional information on the population adjustments and their effects on national labor force estimates is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdf
Tables B and C
Synopsis
- The January jobs report will show a gain in population of over 3 million due to illegal immigration. Without the revision, the gain would have been 176,000.
- The January jobs report will show a gain in employment of 2,234,000 of which 2,000,000 is a revision. Excluding the revision, the gain would have been 234,000. Again, we can attribute this change to illegal immigration.
- In accordance with “normal practice” none of this will show up on historical charts. They are now bogus (and always have been) but this year is especially bad.
Experimental Data
Although the official household survey estimates will not be revised, BLS will produce experimental time series back to April 2020 for the total labor force and total employed that account for the January2025 population control effects.
These experimental series will be available in the CPS technical documentation shortly after the publication of this news release on February 7, 2025, at www.bls.gov/cps/documentation.htm#pop.
Population controls for veterans have also been updated with the release of data for January 2025. These controls are derived from a Department of Veterans Affairs population model. Historical data have not been revised.
A quick check of the above link shows nothing of merit. I was hoping for revised historical data only to find this blurb.
Notice to Smoothed Series Data Users
BLS will no longer update the smoothed labor force and employment research series.
These series, which run from January 1990–December 2017, were last updated in February 2018. They will remain available online for interested data users, but no further extensions or revisions to the series are planned.
The appropriate way to read those paragraphs is as follows: We know are data is garbage, but we won’t bother to fix it.
My regular jobs report with bogus charts will follow shortly.
Related Posts
January 31, 2025: The BLS Confirms US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation
February 4, 2025: Job Openings Drop by 556,000 in December, Quits Show Job Finding Stress
February 5, 2025: ADP Payrolls Better than Expected But Two-Thirds of the Economy Has Stalled
so revised or “actual” total number of non farm jobs in
January 2024: 157,049,000
December 2024: 158,296,000
a growth of 1,247,000 jobs or 0.8% job growth
does not seem spectacular growth and what kind of jobs ?
low paying jobs in hospitality, services and healthcare (i.e., nursing homes) ?
I’m thinking this pretty much confirms Mish’s early recession call was 100% right.
The big questions now are:
a) When does the stock market get on the elevator–the one with no brakes and a broken cable?
b) How high will gold go when SHTF?
c) How much will Trump increase the Fed. Debt with handouts to keep the masses from rioting?
Did the numbers get revised because Binden’s people are nolonger puting their “thumbs on the scales” every month?
After what happened with Politico nothing is suprise any more
Most of the inflation came from those imigrants spending to form new bouseholds (cf CPI shelter inflation, retail spending), and government outlays to support them (cf government employment)..
Deporting illegal immigrants to the tune of millions would be deflationary, *if* they actually grow the balls to do it.
we still don’t know how many illegal immigrants (not just “criminal” illegal immigrants are in the USA)
let alone how many children born in the USA are sons and daughters of the illegal immigrants ?
going by Birdbrain Biden and/or maybe Obama statistics, there are only “11 million illegal immigrants in the USA”
maybe that is why they push amnesty because they’ll force making +35 million illegal immigrants into USA citizens
To any tiny hatted individuals who downvoted me, ZeroHedge had an article from Ed Dowd added on Feb 10 explaining how immigration has been a major source of inflation, and where all that excess fiscal spending went during the Biden administration. EBT, housing, and medical assistance for these folks has done nothing but cause prices to shoot higher.
“Household formation” is a well understood economic driver of huge magnitude, and adding 10 to 15 million “excess” illegal immigrants over the last four years was a purely inflationary phenomena. The housing supply shock from the sudden influx was icing on the cake.
The “push down wages” argument is irrelevant bullshit. For every person whose wages were supressed, a household was formed. Which of those two economic forces do you think wins out, net-net? The magnitude in dollars difference between these is no contest.
Just a note that this figure was about the same in January of 2020. Regardless of who is president the BLS model seems a bit flawed by around 15% overstatement of jobs. Of course the Wall Street and investor community love all this because it allows them to drive up stocks as much as possible.
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It was 152 million non farm jobs in February 2020, and January 2024 it was 157 million jobs.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
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Looking at the breakdown of monthly revisions, the BLS would be more accurate if it subtracted 575 jobs. That’s pretty easy math to do. Getting a methodology change approved is the hard part.
“learn to code”
“HOW DEMS BUILT THE WORLD’S BIGGEST RAKE, THEN STOMPED ON IT”
Luke Rosiak
How I wish that I had come up with this title instead of Luke Rosiak.
What’s the point of spending billions of dollars to fund a government agency to produce inaccurate data?
propaganda, its always about propaganda. to induce you to beleive something false so you will fail to act in your own interest or will even worse do yourself harm vis a vis, financial, medical or some other aspect of your life.
why do you think they tell you not to eat butter, but sugar is fine, and load up on a large starbucks full of sugar syrups?
The food pyramid, is propaganda, most of the government data products for the last half of a century are propaganda or bent so badly as to be useless for anything but a laugh.
These reports are worthless garbage.
Does this mean that the prior administration over counted 600K jobs?
CNBC is reporting Trump issuing a new XO caving on De Minimis for China. Did I mention “cave faster than a Kentucky coalmine” somewhere else on this blog?
Link to my comment above
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/trump-delays-ending-of-de-minimis-trade-exemption-targeting-china.html
Enjoy the wilderness. Better luck next time in 15-20 years.
Recession is almost there. Are we there : not yet !
Last policy actions.
ECB Jan 29 2025 cut 25 Basis
BOE Feb 05 2025 cut 25 Basis
BOC Jan282025 cut 25 Basis
RBI Feb 06 2025 cut 25 Basis
SNB Dec 11 2024 cut 50 Basis
PBOC Oct 20 2024 cut 25 Basis
RBNZ Nov 26 2024 cut 50 Basis
RBA Nov 2024 no change
BOJ raised 25 Basis all the way up to .50%
Seems to be a pattern here and Fed will be catching up. Even with inflation holding above targets easing is going on and will continue to do so as things continue to
de-globalize.
Global economy is trashed.
“Global economy is trashed.”
And wait till the tariffs kick in…the world is already changing their business strategies because of what’s already happened.
Looks like the Trump recession is almost here.
Trump by actually doing something positive for Americans will be boosting Domestic growth.
Biden and the rif raff that came before did everything possible to hurt America and run up profit margins for Globalist linked multi nationals. Too busy taking their own skim off the top to do good for America.
I do not know if world businesses are changing strategies or not because they all seem to be under some delusion that Trump is not a serious man.
I think they are starting to get message that he is.
Central Bankers around the world are running scared.
J Powell and friends still living under a rock.
Plenty of opportunity in currency markets as things are adjusting to a different paradigm.
America is self sufficient and few others are.
Get used to it Bucko, America is back.
The recession has been on for months just all those fabricated numbers designed to paper over Biden administration incompetence.
Self-sufficient? There are 73 million people on social security and growing. Let’s check back in at the end of the year. Trump says more tariffs next week.
7,000 Baby Boomer SS recipient funerals a day is the relevant number.
Well Mouth, time to see what you are made of then.
More precisely, the financial system is trashed. However, the economy is financialized to the hilt, and is pulling the economy down.
BLS kissed Trump’s mass: down under Biden, up under Trump, ex gov workers.
Smoke & Mirrors . . . more hot air for Wall Street . . .
Well, Mish, I guess I should not be surprised by your blog title, but I am disappointed. I guess our individual reactions are colored by our own internal biases about how we view the data.
So let me give an alternative view. Everyone knew the establishment survey numbers were slightly high (0.4% of total employment for the year). But the supposed -818K revision in August has been downsized to -610K, so an improvement. And every month in 2024 had an increase.
In addition, the BLS household survey job numbers (which should never have been utilized as an estimate of total jobs in the US – that’s what the establishment survey is for) have increased by 2.2M for the year. We knew this was coming from the updated Census data for the immigrants. On average, that’s an increase of +185K jobs per month from the previous household survey numbers. Your graphs would have looked very different (no divergence?) if estimates of these numbers had been included.
But overall, a strong showing for 2024 for employment, income and GDP.
Part time vs. full-time says otherwise. Why, pray tell, did the inflation of the population increase reported “full time” employment (Household series) but not Part Time? Same population base, they should’ve increased in proportion, I would think.
While the reduced job counts are real, the inflated “population” numbers are merely estimated. FedGov can “estimate” good news any day, but they are especially prone to that error when reality is bad news!
Finally, your best case scenario implies that without the government-sponsored illegal immigration (what irony!), plus the frantic deficit spending, the economy would in fact have needed that Fed defibrillator that they pulled out last fall.
Yes, I did not address the “why”. Of course, part of the good employment, income and GDP numbers are due to immigrants working and the government spending money. That has always been the case. If you don’t like that, ask your Republican Congressman to get rid of both of them. That’s your option and does not bother me.
I was focused on the “what” happened because this blogsite has been focused on ‘negative’ numbers and possible recession for a year or more. And now the numbers have been revised and they are good.
Yes, the ‘inflated’ BLS household survey numbers are estimated, but now they match the historical establishment survey numbers which have also positive for all year.
I don’t look economic statistics politically like so many of you here; they are what they are. And they have been good for at least the last year.
BTW, I’m quite surprised you are dissing the ‘inflated’ revisions of the BLS household survey numbers since you quote their veracity frequently. Is this because your 80-year-old ‘proof’ that decreases in BLS household numbers predict recessions in real time has gone poof this time so far?
I’m not dissing the household survey, I’m questioning the accuracy of the dramatic population revisions, and why they were apparently applied to full-time employment but not part-time employment.
As for whether or not the prediction has gone poof, it’s still a bit early to tell. The series has not hit lower lows yet.
Back to BLS and the random number generators … Excellent. Send DOGE to look at these guys.
That’s probably the best idea of this ramping up Trump administration, Patrick!
Replace them with AI.
OMG! Unemployment just dropped to 4%. More Winning!
Now, I certainly don’t have rose colored glasses with regards to what employment will look like if DOGE’s waste transparency turns itself into a real hammer. But nobody said cutting into a $2T annual budget deficit was going to be easy.
There should be a lot of jobs in California and the Carolina’s because a WHOLE lot of rebuilding is needed in those areas after the fires and hurricanes. Not just construction workers either because they are literally re-doing all the infrastructure from the ground up which will mean people required to staff restaurants and other businesses.
Will rebuilding LA actually add to GNP, when all you are doing is replacing what was there?
Yes, we should all be cheering a 4.0% unemployment rate; it’s a good thing for so ‘few’ people to be voluntarily unemployed.
But Trump and his press secretary are ‘blaming’ the bad economy (and today’s numbers) on Biden and his policies. So I guess the 4.0% belongs to Biden?